中国结构性增长的经济选择

未来20年,中国经济总量要翻两翻,全面实现小康社会,必须保持7%的持续、快速、稳定增长.在制度效率减弱、要素供给增长有限、技术创新困难的情况下,结构性增长是未来中国经济增长的新源泉、新理论、新思路、新实践.     

技术创新和人力资本对区域经济的动态影响

经济增长一直是世界各国永恒的话题。国内现阶段不同区域经济发展程度差异显著,因此探究区域长期经济增长的影响因素以及这些因素之间的动态关系是亟待解决的重要研究问题。研究通过构建人力资本—技术创新内生增长模型,探究人力资本和技术创新对于区域经济增长的影响,以及人力资本和技术创新的动态平衡关系。     

The interplay of international trade,economic growth and income convergence: a brief intellectual history of recent developments

The literature on the interplay of international trade, economic growth, and income convergence across economies has proliferated in the past few decades. The present essay reviews the theoretical advancements and empirical findings in this literature. The focus will be on recent developments with a few glances at the past. The essay also describes new findings and insights into the role of international trade in global income distribution. Ideas for further research are offered throughout the essay.     

The simultaneous evolution of economic growth,financial development,and trade openness

This article empirically investigates the interactions among economic growth, financial development, and trade openness through simultaneous equation systems. The identification and estimation of the systems rely on the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. The empirical results show that each of the three variables interacts in important ways. When controlling for the reverse causation, trade promotes economic growth in high-income, low-inflation, and nonagricultural countries but has a negative impact on growth in countries with the opposite attributes. Similarly, when accounting for the feedbacks from growth, banks and stock markets have different impacts on economic growth. While banking development is detrimental to output growth, stock market development is more favorable to growth in high-income, low-inflation, and nonagricultural countries. The data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of financial development on trade and a negative effect of trade on financial development in poorer countries. In richer countries, financial development stimulates trade openness whereas trade has an ambiguous impact on financial development.     

Export externalities and economic growth

Feder formulated the first model with an explicit mechanism connecting international trade and economic growth. We present new econometric estimates of this unique model for 30 developing countries studied by Feder. We replicate Feder's 1964?–?73 cross-section estimates for 1974?–?83 and 1984?–?93 and find that the export variables lose significance and that the model has less explanatory power overall. We also try to improve on time-series estimates by Ram and find that the coefficient of Feder's total factor productivity differential in favour of the export sector was positive and significant for 18 of the 30 countries. The export externality coefficient proved to be positive and significant in 13 countries although significant multicollinearity occurs in the regressions for eight of the 13. Comparisons of the results among countries suggest that the impact of exports on growth depends on population size, trade orientation, and the importance of manufacturing.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

Tourism development,environmental pollution and economic growth: A theoretical analysis

We develop a two-sector dynamic model of a less-developed economy with an imported traded good sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector serving international tourists. Revenue earned from tourism finances imports. The model takes care of the negative effect of tourism development on environmental pollution. Environmental quality and capital stock accumulates over time. We analyse comparative steady-state effects and show that tourism development raises the level of capital stock as well as national income but lowers the quality of environment in the new steady-state equilibrium leading to a relative expansion (contraction) of the capital (labour) intensive non-tourism (tourism) sector. Pollution abatement policy produces a completely opposite effect; and so tourism development policies are to be accompanied by pollution abatement policies in order to ensure green growth.     

我国有利于穷人的经济增长问题研究

本文以“贫困增长曲线”为理论基础,实证分析了1978-2006年来我国的经济增长是否是有利于穷人的经济增长。研充结果表明：1978-2006年间,无论对于城镇地区还是农村地区,经济增长都不是有利于穷人的经济增长;只有1978-1985年间对于城镇地区而言,经济增长才是有利于穷人的。之所以会出现这样的结果,主要原因是在经济增长的同时,我国收入分配不平等的程度不断加深,从而部分抵消了经济增长的减贫效果,使得穷人从经济增长中的获益少于非穷人。     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.     

Foreign direct investments,institutional quality,and economic growth

Institutional quality is considered to be an important factor in boosting economic growth of a country. This paper explores the role of institutional quality in economic growth and more specifically the role it plays via the channel of foreign direct investments. This paper uses a larger dataset of 104 countries and applies GMM estimation method to a dynamic panel data to evaluate the direct impact of institutional quality on economic growth and the indirect impact of institutional quality on economic growth through enhancing the FDI-induced economic growth. This paper provides evidence that both FDI inflows and institutional quality cause stronger economic growth. The FDI-led growth, however, was only experienced in the low and middle-income countries. In these countries, better institutional quality was also found to be enhancing the FDI-led economic growth. An important finding of this paper is that in the high-income countries, FDI was found to slow down the economic growth. The results are robust and consistent for individual institutional quality indicators and controlling for endogeneity.     

Relationship between tourism and economic growth

The main goal of this paper is to determine whether tourism activity stimulates economic growth. The study indicates the main variables affecting tourism activity and shows a feedback effect between income and tourism. Findings indicate that tourism not only supplies necessary funds to finance firms' activities, but also stimulates the local firms' productivity and creates new job opportunities that increase the country's welfare. Variables that have important effects on tourism activity, such as entrepreneurship and prices have also been considered.     

有利于穷人的经济增长之规范性分析

中国改革开放20多年虽然在经济上取得了巨大成就,但是随着经济发展与财富增长,国内民众利益再次出现分化。中国的实践再一次表明经济增长并不会自动、均等地惠及所有人。在2000年联合国提出“千年发展目标”以后,“有利于穷人的经济增长”（PPG）在国际范围引起经济研究者的广泛关注,而它对于中国广大的经济爱好者似乎还是一个新名词。基于国内研究现状,本文主要对PPG及其相关内容进行规范性分析,内容包括有利于穷人增长的类型、内涵、特点及其度量指标体系。     

Gravity,education, and economic development in a multinational affiliate location

This paper investigates the relationship between education and the location of multinational affiliates. It finds that US multinationals seek production locations with high levels of education rather than with uneducated labour. Furthermore, the education effect can be separated from the effects of overall economic development. Based on these results, the paper suggests why previous results regarding education and multinational affiliate location have been mixed. Using a gravity equation framework, the analysis also introduces a methodological innovation by including numerous economies that receive no investment. The expanded data set reveals that about two-thirds of the variation in multinational location can be explained by the standard gravity variables of host country size, transport costs, distance from the investing country, and host country remoteness. Furthermore, the elasticities are higher than those resulting from the analysis of the more restricted country samples used in nearly all research on multinationals. This suggests that previous research might have missed or underestimated relationships and may not be useful in understanding why some countries receive little or no multinational investment.     

Export diversification,margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the relationship between export diversification, export margins and economic growth at the industry level using Thailand as a case study during 2002–16. Our results show that the effects of export diversification and margins on economic growth vary across industries. Export diversification helps boost growth only in some sectors, including electronics, automotive and chemicals, plastic and rubber, while in the processed food, and textiles and apparel industries, specialisation matters more in promoting growth. In almost all industries, a non-linear relationship between diversification and economic growth is not revealed, except in textiles and apparel. The diversification is crucial in enhancing the impact of exports on growth only in the processed food and textiles and apparel industries. Expansion of intensive margins plays an important role in boosting growth in key industries within Thailand. The role of extensive margins, both in terms of new products and new market destinations, in promoting economic growth is limited. For extensive margins (new products), it is found to be significant in boosting economic growth only in processed food and textiles and apparel, while in the case of extensive margins (new market destinations), its significance in boosting growth is revealed only in the electronics sector.     

经济改革和收入分配

本文探讨了以下几个问题:收入差距的基本情况、当前收入分配差距的估计结果、针对当前有关中国收入分配差距的一些估计上存在的争论以及对当前收入差距扩大问题的看法。本文指出,对待当前收入分配以及收入差距扩大的问题,要坚持两个原则:第一,应看到收入差距扩大和收入分配不公是不同的问题。第二,城乡收入差距有其历史的原因,应从历史角度来看待和理解当前的收入差距,才能在政策制定上有更加科学的考虑。     

转变外经贸增长方式 促进黑龙江省外经贸可持续发展

党的十六届五中全会通过的“十一五”计划中提出,要落实科学发展观,重视并大力转变经济增长方式,提高资源利用效率,以促进经济的可持续发展。因此,优化外经贸结构,转变外经贸增长方式,已成为促进黑龙江省外经贸可持续发展的必要条件。     

Producer services: growth and roles in long-term economic development

This paper deals with the varying roles of producer services in economic transformation during the last 30 years in Sweden, and analyses unique longitudinal data on eight service sectors. The theoretical background for the analysis is inspired by the technology shift thesis of economic historians, and we show that the renewal and transformation of producer services has taken place later than for the manufacturing sector. The importance of producer services in national growth increased enormously towards the end of the period, but we also note that this growth has been accompanied by a divergence in growth between service sectors.     

Density of local cadres and regional economic performance: Evidence from China

In this study, we investigated the effect of the present‐day density of local cadres on economic performance in Chinese prefecture‐level cities. Adjusting for common control variables, our estimates show that local cadre density has a significantly positive effect on regional economic performance. This result holds when we employ the local cadre density in 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party assumed power, to instrument for the current local cadre density. We also tested the channels through which local cadres play a role in regional economic development. Our empirical results show that a high local cadre density has a significant effect on attracting economic resources, which promotes regional economic performance.     

我国生产率测算与经济潜在增长率预测研究

生产率是影响一国参与全球竞争的关键要素。本文基于全周期和子周期两种视角,利用C-D生产函数对我国生产率进行测算并预测了未来的经济潜在增长率,研究结果显示:21世纪以来,我国全要素生产率呈现下降趋势,但对经济的贡献率仍处于较高水平,经济呈现科技与资本双轮驱动特征;未来我国将跨越上中等收入阶段,步入高收入国家行列;预测结果显示:2036-2050年间我国经济增长主要靠全要素生产率拉动,经济增长动力的有效转换,将更加接近党的十九大提出的"两阶段"战略目标,更加适应新时代下的高质量发展需求。     

Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.