退休年龄选择机理：基于人力资本与社会保障的视角

近年来,延长退休年龄问题日益成为社会和学界的热点话题。本文从我国人口老龄化社会的到来并渐近达到峰值谈起,指出人口老龄化趋势、人均寿命的延长以及我国人口平均人力资本存量的不断增加要求我们实行延迟退休制度。     

Social security generosity,budgetary deficits and reforms in North Cyprus

This paper estimates the fiscal burden of the historical pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) Social Insurance Pension System in North Cyprus and analyzes the appropriateness of the 2008 reforms that introduced the new Social Security Pension System. Estimates are made of the system deficit. To bring the magnitude of the unfunded cost of the pension system down to a sustainable level, major parametric reforms will need to be made to the system. These include increasing the age of retirement, increasing the rate of contributions, changing the method of indexing of pension benefits and decreasing the theoretical replacement rate of the pension benefits.     

Do immigrants delay retirement and social security claiming?

ABSTRACT

We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine how immigrants’ retirement and Social Security claiming patterns compare to those of natives. We find that immigrants retire and claim Social Security at older ages than natives, an effect that is similar across immigrant ethnic groups and more pronounced among immigrants who arrived in the U.S. after age 40. We discuss and explore possible mechanisms for these differences. Hazard models suggests that these differences arise because immigrants have lower retirement and claiming hazard rates in their early 60s. We do not find evidence of an increase in the rate at which immigrants move abroad or exit the survey, compared to U.S. natives, in their late 50s through 60s, a finding that is consistent with immigrants retiring in the U.S. rather than abroad. These results are important given the rising share of older immigrants living in the U.S., and they have implications for the impact of immigration on government finances as well as the retirement security of an important subgroup of the population.     

延迟退休年龄与养老保险收支余额:作用机制及政策效应

文章通过连续时间养老金收支模型分析认为延迟退休年龄对养老保险计划收支余额的影响来自四个方面的效应,即缴费年限效应、领取年限效应、替代率效应和差异效应。改革的最终效果是上述四种效应共同作用的结果。短期看,前两种效应占据主导;长期看,后两种效应也具有显著影响。延迟退休年龄的政策效果和工资增长率、养老金增长率、改革速度以及未来参保人口结构有关。理论分析和实证检验结果表明,无论从改革过程还是从对养老保险计划收支余额的影响看,延迟退休年龄都是一个复杂而渐进的过程,延迟退休年龄必将减轻政府在养老保险方面负担的传统说法并不全面。     

事业单位职工延迟退休年龄影响因素实证分析

本文以生命周期理论为依据,以事业单位职工作为实证研究的对象,对退休年龄的影响因素从个人特征、经济因素、工作因素、制度因素四个维度进行问卷调查,借助二元Logistic回归模型进行分析。结果显示,最适退休年龄、工龄、升职空间、继续工作意愿这4个因素均与职工延迟退休意愿的强烈程度呈正相关关系,退休后社会保障外收入则与延迟退休意愿呈负相关关系。     

提高我国养老保险退休年龄的相关研究--财务平衡下对缴费率影响的定量分析

目前,中国人口在60岁时的预期平均余命为16年.为了解决未来老龄化将非常严重的问题,我国将现收现付制和个人积累制相结合的混合制确定为养老保险制度改革的目标模式.本文在部分积累制的财务平衡模型的基础上,定量分析了提高退休年龄对缴费率的影响.最后得出结论:延长退休年龄能有效延迟高缴费率的到来.     

弹性退休年龄改革和养老金缺口的弥补:基于人力资本理论

老职工退出劳动领域时点其人力资本存量和新职工刚进入劳动领域时点的人力资本存量应该相等,所以应该采用弹性退休年龄的改革,从增加积累和减少支出二方面来弥补养老金的缺口。用保险精算原理得出了退休年龄和退休给付额之间的对应关系,并提出相应的政策建议。     

Do the French pension reforms increase re-employment of older unemployed workers?

ABSTRACT

The sustainability of Social Security financing has pushed authorities to reform their policy to increase the labour market participation of older workers. While most of the studies have focused on the consequences of pension reform on retirement decisions, we analyse the effects of two French pension reforms, which increased the period of contribution and the minimum retirement age, on transitions out of unemployment and into employment with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that both retirement reforms have positive effects on the re-employment of older unemployed workers. The pension reforms are also accompanied by an increase of the transitions into inactivity. The results suggest that the reforms have delivered significant effects by reducing the unemployment of older workers.     

机关、事业和企业联动的“新养老策论”

文章针对2008年《事业单位工作人员养老保险制度改革试点方案》的若干不足之处,提出了机关、事业和企业三单位联动的养老保险制度改革方案。在明确新养老策论基本含义和内涵的基础上,分析了新养老策论提出的动因和背景,重点探讨了新养老策论提出的理论与现实依据,以及如何完善和实施等问题。新养老策论可以为我国特别是城镇养老保险制度改革提供重要思路和解决路径。     

中国社会保障体制改革:回顾与前瞻

经过20余年的探索和改革,中国社会保障体系的总体框架已经初步形成。下一步改革的重点主要是养老、医疗和失业保险等项制度,面临的问题将更为棘手,也是绕不过去的,必须分别拿出对策。     

On the Pro-Social Security Rhetoric

We propose to reframe Social Security to offer a coherent anti-privatization rhetoric that has not been fully provided in the contemporary literature. The dissatisfaction that motivated this study centers on the observation that the prevalent anti-privatization rhetoric exposes the drawbacks of Private Retirement Accounts (PRAs), but this rhetoric itself doesn't satisfactorily explain why the current Social Security system is more desirable. In reframing Social Security, we will follow a two-stage strategy. First, we will articulate the desirability of Social Security grounded in the function it serves in a way PRAs are not suited for serving: being a social income insurance scheme whose provision inherently favors the least fortunate in a Rawlsian fashion. Second, we will concentrate how Social Security provides this non-market choice by drawing on the unique resources not entirely available to the market.