Financial liberalization,disaggregated capital flows and banking crisis: Evidence from developing countries

The aim of this paper is to examine whether financial liberalization has triggered banking crises in some developing countries. We focus in particular on the role of capital flows as their volatilities threat economic stability and growth. In the empirical model, based on panel logit estimation, we use the two common financial liberalization indicators (defacto and dejure) for a panel of 58 developing countries observed during the period 1984–2007. Unlike the previous studies, this paper reveals that both indicators of financial liberalization did not trigger banking crises. However, the results show that foreign debt liabilities to total liabilities and foreign direct investment liabilities to total liabilities increase the likelihood of banking crises.     

What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?

We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD countries. Moreover, an increase in the income gap accelerates the implementation of structural reforms, but increased political fragmentation does not seem to have a significant impact.     

Tipping the (Im)balance: Capital inflows,financial market structure,and banking crises

An emerging consensus among scholars and policy‐makers identifies foreign capital inflows as one of the primary determinants of banking crises in developed countries. We challenge this view by arguing that external imbalances are destabilizing only when banks face substantial competition from securities markets in the process of financial intermediation. We assemble a dataset of banking crises covering the advanced industrialized countries from 1976 to 2011 and find evidence of a conditional relationship between capital inflows, a well‐developed securities market, and the incidence of banking crises. We further explore the impact of capital inflows on banks’ actual risk taking as indicated by their capital adequacy levels and measures of insolvency risk. Our results demonstrate that prudential capital cushions tend to decline with the combination of capital inflows and prominent securities markets. We highlight the political decisions—often made during the early days of a country's financial development—that determine the relative prominence of banks vs. non‐bank financial institutions and conclude with policy recommendations.     

What can Islamic financing tell us about macro-prudential policies?

Macro-prudential policies are theoretically effective at mitigating a debt deflation crisis by forcing individuals to internalize their impact on aggregate prices reducing systemic risk caused by pecuniary externalities. To better understand the potential effectiveness of a macro-prudential time varying tax/subsidy on debt/dividends, we empirically estimate the impact of an Islamic financing presence on financial crises. Adherence to Islamic financing principles for a nontrivial portion of a country’s population has similar impacts to a macro-prudential policy in that these limited asset holders are likely to hold less debt or use debt-like instruments rather than conventional debt, driving down their marginal rate of substitution and the price of equity in equilibrium. To empirically estimate the effects of this policy, we interact an Islamic financing variable with debt in an otherwise standard model of financial crises. The results show that this macro-prudential-like policy decreases the likelihood of a banking crisis by 50%. The contribution of the article is twofold. First, we show that an Islamic finance presence encourages precautionary savings like a macro-prudential policy. Second, using an Islamic finance presence to capture macro-prudential potential effects, we find empirically that the likelihood of banking crises are cut roughly by half when such policies are in effect.     

Credit information sharing and banking crises: An empirical investigation

We study the effect of credit information sharing on the likelihood of banking crises using a comprehensive cross-country dataset for the period from 1975 to 2006. The empirical analysis shows that credit information sharing reduces the likelihood of banking crises and it does more so in low income countries. The effect is statistically and economically significant, and applies to both public registries and private bureaus. Furthermore, we show that credit information sharing reduces the impact of rapid credit growth on banking crises. Specifically, rapid credit growth is less likely to lead to a banking crisis in countries with credit information sharing.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险*

本文研究在资本账户自由化下，信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据，并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后，研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现，FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险；适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性；但当股权投资大量流入时，伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫，银行危机风险急剧增加；较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响，但当超过一定规模时，银行危机风险显著增加。     

资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险*

本文研究在资本账户自由化下，信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据，并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后，研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现，FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险；适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性；但当股权投资大量流入时，伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫，银行危机风险急剧增加；较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响，但当超过一定规模时，银行危机风险显著增加。       

Banking,currency, stock market and debt crises in Spain, 1850–1995

What type of crisis is generated when debt increases? We extend the literature by framework by introducing currency and stock market crises in the analysis. We apply our proposal to the case of Spain, since this is a country that has experienced a very important amount of financial crises from the nineteenth century onwards. We find the same results as the previous literature for the determinants of banking and debt crises but substituting external and public debt with perpetual debt and where perpetual debt has a less important role than crises in the private sector. Moreover, we find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that currency crises depend strongly and positively on financial centre crises and negatively and mildly on perpetual debt. We justify the negative relalionship due to an inflation tax. We also find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that stock market crises depend only positively and strongly on financial centre crises.     

Withstanding financial crises: would trade partners help or hurt?

This article provides new empirical evidence on the losses of real activity caused by various financial shocks. Spillover effects due to foreign trade linkages deserve special attention. To this end, we estimate a modify auto-regressive process and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations estimator is used to account for the dependency of one’s country growth on its trade-weighted partners growth. We run estimations on a set of currency collapses, banking crises and sovereign defaults in 49 advanced and developing countries from 1978 to 2011. The trade-weighted foreign demand effect mitigated the economic downturn following a banking or a sovereign debt crisis in all countries, while only the advanced ones benefited from it after a currency collapse. Trade-based spillover effects make banking crises more costly in the developing countries, in those that liberalize their financial account. It contrasts with what is observed during currency or sovereign debt crises.     

Global banking,global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises

We examine whether shocks to leveraged creditors with cross border holdings have an incidence on debtor countries׳ risk of suffering financial turmoil. We construct a new proxy of shocks to international banks׳ balance-sheets using credit ratings and the structure of their international assets. This allows us investigating the effect of (foreign) bank balance-sheet shocks on domestic financial turmoil in a large sample of 146 developed and emerging economies from 1984 to 2011. Our proxies of shocks towards bank balance-sheets are strong predictors of systemic banking crises in their debtor countries. Confirming these results, bilateral bank flows significantly decrease when creditor banks׳ assets are hit by negative shocks, as measured by credit rating downgrades from third-party countries. Short-term liabilities towards global banks appear to increase roll-over and funding risks, thereby amplifying the impact of shocks to foreign lenders’ balance-sheets. Domestic banking sectors vulnerabilities, such as illiquid assets and a low deposit-asset ratio, are found to increase crisis contagion risk. In contrast, a high level of global liquidity attenuates the transmission of shocks to international banks׳ assets to debtor countries.     

Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

This study aims to identify which factors explain why some countries enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. We analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises by employing an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model (FMM). Real and financial variables show high predictive power for stability spells between currency crises. Regarding debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between systemic financial crises appears to be prolonged through government interventions and through IMF program participation, while bank recapitalization has a negative impact.     

房价波动、隐含担保与银行系统性风险*

银行对房地产行业的信贷优先倾向导致信贷投放向房地产业集中,房地产价格波动对金融系统性风险的影响日益突出。本文基于银行与房地产两部门或有权益资产负债表分析框架,从资产和负债两个方面研究房地产部门对银行的风险传导机制,构造银行对房地产部门的隐含担保比例作为度量风险传导强度的指标,运用TVP VAR方法刻画2002—2016年我国房价波动与房地产部门、银行系统性风险的动态演变路径。研究结果表明,我国房地产风险主要通过银行信贷从负债项进行风险传导,房地产部门风险对风险传导强度的影响存在明显的结构性突变,银行系统性风险存在非线性加速恶化特征。本文最后提出要稳定房价、拓宽房地产融资渠道、降低地方政府对土地财政依赖等建议。     

Determinants of bank risk behaviour in EMU countries

This article investigates the determinants of banking sector risk behaviour in EMU countries over the period 2004Q4–2013Q3. Average ‘Distance-to-default (DtD)’ based on all publicly listed banks headquartered in a particular country is used as an indicator of banking risk. Macroeconomic fundamentals, market sentiments and gross debt-to-GDP together with private debt are considered as factors explaining risk behaviour. Using a panel framework, I found that the market sentiments, debt-to-GDP ratio and nonfinancial institutions debt significantly affect banking sector fragility.     

Determinants of capital flows to emerging and advanced economies between 1990 and 2011

The previous and latest crises confirmed that stability of external financing of the economy is determined not only by the volume of capital inflow but also by its structure. It is established that a bias in gross external liabilities towards debt, especially short-term, may rise vulnerability to financial crises. Greater share of equity capital, mainly direct investment is not found to bear such financial risk. The results of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) show that influence of variables inherent in macroeconomic and portfolio approaches varies depending on the type of capital inflow and the group of countries. We also find some arguments that equity investment is a more desirable form of foreign capital because debt inflows are more responsive to global factors and therefore more volatile. As a word of caution, we highlight the need for diversification and careful monitoring of external financing sources and forms.     

Banking crises,labor reforms,and unemployment

Using a sample of 97 countries spanning the period 1980–2008, we estimate that banking crises have, on average, a large negative impact on unemployment. This effect, however, largely depends on the flexibility of labor market institutions: while in countries with more flexible labor markets the impact of banking crises is sharper but short-lived, in countries with more rigid labor markets the effect is initially more subdued but highly persistent. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term, and long-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive market reforms have a positive impact on unemployment, albeit only in the medium term.     

基于可流动性资产负债表的我国政府债务风险研究

政府资产是政府债务顺利偿还的基础,当政府资产低于其负债时,政府债务将面临一定风险,因此基于政府资产负债的视角,本文结合中国实际首先编制了一个简化的政府"可流动性资产"负债表,然后,分析了1998—2008年我国政府仅考虑直接债务时的政府债务风险,并且对2009—2010年的政府债务风险进行了分析。研究表明,2003—2006年因外汇储备急剧增长使我国政府债务风险总体较小且比较稳定,但因金融危机的爆发,我国政府债务风险在此期间前后的两次金融危机中都比较大,金融危机对政府债务风险的影响显著。研究还表明,积极的财政政策对短期降低政府债务风险具有明显效果,且1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机对我国政府债务风险的影响具有相似性,即金融危机爆发后的几年内政府债务风险会因积极的财政政策而经历"大—小—大"的变化过程。最后,通过引入政府或有债务,分析了具有或有债务时的政府债务风险。本文认为,只要我国政府的或有债务规模不超过24万亿元人民币,则我国的政府债务风险较小。     

An Empirical Economic Development Based Model of International Banking Risk and Risk Scoring

The paper reconsiders the relationship between international banking risk and economic development. It is shown quite conclusively that the significant explanatory variables of international banking risk scores (when international banking risk is used as a proxy for country risk) are the income elasticity of demand for imports (when the latter is used as an indicator of economic growth and development), the phase of industrialization (based on country per capita income), and certain historical economic and financial variables (external debt levels and international bank size according to total assets). The investigation arrives at a new approach to risk scoring systems and models.     

Public Debt Reduction in Advanced Countries and Its Impact on Emerging Countries

Financial crises accompanied by banking crises often entail heavy fiscal legacies. For the U.S., for example, the gross government debt to GDP ratio exceeded 100 % in 2012. Due to the unsustainability of public debt, both in the U.S. and in other advanced countries, moves towards a substantial reduction in debt levels would appear to be unavoidable. However, as shown in this paper, the long-run welfare impact of debt reduction in advanced countries, both at home and abroad, may prove to be somewhat of a disincentive for policy makers. In particular, we find that under conditions of dynamic inefficiency, and when Home (U.S.) has a negative external balance and a lower capital production share than Foreign (China), both domestic and foreign welfare decrease if Home reduces public debt.     

Does the Degree of Development Matter in the Impact of Banking Crises on International Trade?

This paper analyzes how a country's degree of economic development affects the impact of banking crises on international trade. To this end, we estimate a gravity model of trade using a sample of 139 countries over the period 1975–2012. Our results show that middle income countries are generally the most negatively affected. In contrast, financial turmoil appears to have less impact on bilateral trade flows among high income countries and, more specially, among low income nations. The level of financial development, contract enforcement, as well as the extent of the use of banking credit within international trade all help to explain our findings.