Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach

We empirically investigate the effects of inflation uncertainty on output growth for the United States between 1960 and 2012. Modeling output dynamics within a Markov regime switching framework, we provide evidence that inflation uncertainty exerts a negative and regime‐dependent impact on output growth. A battery of sensitivity checks confirm our findings.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty,inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7

We analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth by considering whether these effects are cycle phase specific. Employing a bivariate Smooth Transition EGARCH-M model for the G7 countries during 1957–2009, we find strong nonlinearities. First, uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related with a higher average growth rate mostly in a low-growth regime, supporting the theory of “creative destruction”. Second, higher inflation uncertainty diminishes growth rates, mainly at a high-inflation regime. Finally, real uncertainty has mixed effects on average inflation, while the effect of nominal uncertainty is typically positive, especially so during inflationary periods. Our findings suggest that these relationships are sufficiently complex to require treatment with nonlinear models.     

Competing macro-hypotheses in the United States: A Kalman filtering approach

The empirical validity of alternative views about the short-run determinants of real output growth in the United States is investigated. A nested framework is used to test the macro rational expectations (MRE) hypothesis directly against two competing hypotheses - the neo-Keynesian view that anticipated and unanticpated monetary policy both matter,and Friedman's (1977) proposition that increased inflation uncertainty reduces real output at least temporarily. The unobservable explanatory variables are obtained from time-varying-parameter models of inflation and money growth, which generate forecast errors and their conditional variances consistent with rational expectations under a continuously chaning policy regime. The empirical results strongly support Friedman's view. The MRE hypothesis must be rejected since both anticipated and unanticipated monetary changes matter. The results prove robust across different model specifications and estimation techniques.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries*

We use a very general bivariate GARCH‐M model and quarterly data for five Asian countries to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. We conclude the following. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related negatively to the average growth rate. Secondly, contrary to expectations, inflation uncertainty in most cases does not harm the output growth performance of an economy. Thirdly, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. Consistent results are found using the VAR‐GARCH‐M approach to investigate the dynamic relationship between inflation and output growth using impulse response functions. This evidence implies that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance, i.e. raise output growth and reduce inflation. Our empirical results highlight important differences with those for industrialized countries.     

Modelling the Link Between US Inflation and Output: The Importance of the Uncertainty Channel

This article employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in‐mean effects, level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unified framework, we examine the twelve potential intertemporal relationships among inflation, growth and their respective uncertainties using US data. We find that high inflation is detrimental to output growth both directly and indirectly via the nominal uncertainty. Output growth boosts inflation but mainly indirectly through a reduction in real uncertainty. Our findings highlight how macroeconomic performance affects nominal and real uncertainty in many ways and that the bidirectional relation between inflation and growth works to a large extent indirectly via the uncertainty channel.     

Nominal Wage Flexibility and Economic Performance: Evidence and Implications Across Industrial Countries

By considering the theoretical connection between labour and product markets, the paper evaluates the economic relationship of these markets within the contractual wage rigidity New Keynesian explanation of business cycles. The empirical analysis focuses on the short‐run cyclical behaviour of real output, prices and wages for 19 industrial countries. Time‐series and cross‐sectional regressions are estimated. Cross‐sectional cyclical correlations in the labour and goods markets are also evaluated across countries. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, aggregate uncertainty is an important factor in increasing the flexibility of the nominal wage in response to aggregate demand shocks. Wage flexibility accelerates price inflation and moderates the response of real output growth to aggregate demand shocks. Wage flexibility does not appear to be an important factor in differentiating the real and inflationary effects of energy price shocks across countries. Finally, aggregate uncertainty increases the responsiveness of output and price to productivity shocks.     

Asymmetric and Time‐Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G‐7 Countries

We use Granger causality tests within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS‐VAR) model using monthly data for G‐7 countries covering the period 1959:12–2008:10 to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation‐uncertainty. The MS‐VAR model allows us to model parameter time‐variation so as to reflect changes in Granger causality, assuming that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain. Inflation uncertainty is measured as the conditional variance generated by a Fractionally Integrated Smooth Transition Autoregressive Moving Average‐Asymmetric Power ARCH (FISTARMA‐APARCH) model. The distinguishing feature of our approach from the previous studies is the determination of the sign of the Granger causality relationship between inflation and its uncertainty over time. First, using a rolling VAR model, we show that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is time varying with frequent breaks. Second, using the MS‐VAR model, we obtain strong evidence in favour of the Holland's ‘stabilizing Fed hypothesis’ for Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States. We also find evidence in favour of the Friedman hypothesis for Canada and the United States.     

Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia

Inflation, defined as a sustained increase in the price level, is considered a monetary phenomenon, as it can be explained within the framework of money‐demand and money‐supply relationships. In the extant literature, money growth is shown to remain causally related to inflation across countries and over time, irrespective of the exchange rate regime and stability of the money‐demand function. Nevertheless, emerging literature suggests a diminishing role of money in the conduct of monetary policy for price stability, especially under inflation targeting. Monetary policy in Australia under inflation targeting since 1993 is an example of policy that denies a relationship between money growth and inflation. The proposition that money does not matter insofar as inflation is concerned seems odd in both theory and the best‐practice monetary policy for price stability. This paper uses annual data for the period 1970–2017 and quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2015Q1. It deploys both the Johansen cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate for Australia whether money, real output, prices and the exchange rate (non‐stationary variables) maintain the long‐run price‐level relationship that the classical monetary theory suggests in the presence of such stationary variables as the domestic and foreign interest rates. As expected, the empirical findings for Australia are consistent with the classical long‐run price‐level relationship between money, real output, prices and the exchange rate. The error‐correction model of inflation confirms the presence of a cointegral relationship among these variables; it also provides strong evidence of a short‐run causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. On the basis of a priori theoretical predictions and empirical findings, the paper draws the conclusion that the monetary aggregate and its growth rate matter insofar as inflation is concerned, irrespective of the strategy of monetary policy for price stability.     

Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. Both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level are considered. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation uncertainty is closely related to output growth uncertainty. Individual forecasters seem to behave according to an uncertainty-augmented hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. We also find evidence that inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by lowering output growth, boosting inflation and reducing the price-sensitiveness of aggregate supply.     

Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis

The world eocnomy is currently adjusting to a low inflation regime which has implicastions for the cross-country distribution of world growth opportunities. In contrast to previous related work which assumes unidirectional causality, this paper uses the Granger methodology to examine both the direction and pattern of causality between inflation and economic growth in 70 countries using annual data over the period 1960–89. Among the conclusions are that first, the relationship between inflation and growth is non-uniform across countries: 40% of countries studied reveal no causality, one-third exhibit unidirectional causality and about one-fifth of countries show bidirectional causality, second, a vast majority of countries which show either uni- or bi-directional causality beong to the industrial group, and third, the low world inflation regime will on balance redistribute real growth opportunities benefit away from the developing countries towards the industrialized countries.     

On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico

We estimate an augmented multivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and output growth for Mexico at business cycle frequencies. The main findings are: (1) inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth; (2) once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth; (3) However as predicted by Friedman and Ball, higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty, and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in Mexico is negative. That is, average inflation is harmful to Mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty. (4) The Mexican Presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth.     

Inflation,inflation uncertainty and growth: Are they related?

We examine the relationship between inflation uncertainty, inflation and growth using annual historical data on industrial countries covering in many cases more than one century. Proxying inflation uncertainty by the conditional variance of inflation shocks, we obtain the following results. (1) There is significant evidence for the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation supporting the Cukierman–Meltzer hypothesis. (2) There is mixed evidence on the causal effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty. (3) There is strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is not detrimental to output growth.     

Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe

The authors analyze the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in (South) Eastern and Central Europe. For the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact of exchange rate stability on low inflation as well as a highly significant positive impact of exchange stability on real growth. When subdividing the period into a "high-inflation" period (1994–97) and a "low-inflation period" (1998–2004), and when removing outliers from the sample, the evidence in favor of a positive association between exchange rate stability and inflation disappears. The association of exchange rate stability with higher real growth remains robust. These findings suggest that membership of the (South) Eastern and Central European countries in the European Monetary Union would have a positive impact on these countries' growth rates.     

Impact of foreign prices and interest rates on canadian economy under alternative monetary and exchange rate regimes

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of U.S. short- and long-term monetary policy under both flexible and managed floating systems, using the new CANDIDE Model 2.0. We have also examined the role of domestic monetary policy in the Canadian economy under both fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. The following are some of the important findings of our study:

1. Our results support the traditional view that under the fixed exchange rate regime, monetary authorities cannot successfully pursue an independent monetary policy from its trading partners — an effort to increase money supply will be almost offset by increases in the balance of payments deficit. In contrast, in the flexible exchange rate regime, monetary policy is more effective in producing an increased growth in output and employment. However the increased output growth comes at the cost of higher prices induced by increased wages and a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
2. Our results suggest that the impact of U.S. interest rates on investment, GNE, employment, productivity, and government debt is less severe in a pure floating exchange rate regime, compared to the managed floating system. However, the impact of U.S. interest rate policy on the Canadian inflation rate is worse in the case of flexible exchange rate regime. Even though real income and inflation are less favourable in both cases, our results indicate a trade-off between output growth and inflation.
3. Our results imply that under a pure floating monetary authorities can determine the long-run rate of inflation in Canada independent of others. However, the United States and Canadian economies are interrelated during the adjustment process, even under the flexible exchange rates, through the terms of trade and the wage-price spiral channels.

     

“Ex-ante” Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets

The success of monetary policy in stabilizing inflation depends substantially on its influence on expectation formation of private agents. This paper provides a novel perspective on the expectation forming process of financial markets. Using forecasts for the short-term interest rate, the inflation rate, and output growth for 10 emerging markets in Latin-America, central and eastern Europe, we estimate expected (“ex-ante”) Taylor-type rules. We find evidence for significant differences in the expectation formation process in the sense that the well-known Taylor principle fairly holds for only some countries, while for the other countries it does not. The adaption of an explicit inflation targeting regime seems to explain this cross-country differences.     

The role of inflation uncertainty in Germany: Friedman's hypothesis revisited

The paper reconsiders Friedman's (1977) proposition that increased inflation uncertainty may have adverse real effects for the German case. A proxy for the unobservable uncertainty variable is obtained from the Kalman-filtering estimation of a time-varying parameter model of inflation. This measure is introduced into an output equation that also includes anticipated and unanticipated inflation, thus allowing tests of both the Friedman and the Macro Rational Expectations hypotheses. The empirical evidence does not provide strong support for Friedman's view. Unanticipated inflation, on the other hand, seems to play a significant role for German output growth in the short run.     

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general.     

A Clustering Approach to Some Monetary Facts: A Long-Run Analysis of Cross-Country Data

Long-run dependencies among inflation, growth rates of money, real output and real output per capita are analysed. For a cross-section of 119 countries, clusters are obtained, and correlations among these variables within each cluster are calculated. Unlike the correlations obtained using data from the full sample, correlations of growth rates of real output and real output per capita with money growth and inflation are dissimilar across clusters. In particular, for some clusters of countries positive long-run relationships of money growth and inflation with growth rates of real output are observed.
JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F01, C69.     

REGIME DEPENDENT EFFECT OF OUTPUT GROWTH ON OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

This paper studies the impact of output growth on output growth uncertainty by considering two important issues hitherto not properly and adequately addressed to in the existing empirical studies specifying this relationship. These are: (i) the possible existence of a threshold level of output growth, and the consequent identification of two regimes characterized by high and low output growth, and (ii) whether or not the coefficient capturing the causal link is different in these two output growth states. This paper proposes a regime switching model to study this asymmetric effect for 16 OECD countries. Based on monthly time‐series observations, our results strongly support that the impact varies significantly between the two output growth regimes with the coefficient in the high growth regime being negative for majority of the countries.