Unions, competition and international trade in general equilibrium

We develop a two-country, multi-sector model of oligopoly in which unionised and non-unionised sectors interact in general equilibrium. The model is used to study the impact of trade liberalisation, deunionisation and firm entry on wages in unionised and non-unionised sectors, and on welfare. We find that a shift from autarky to free trade increases non-union wages and welfare, whereas the effect on union wages is ambiguous. We also show that partial deunionisation leads to higher wages in both unionised and non-unionised sectors, but only increases welfare when the proportion of unionised sectors is sufficiently low. Finally, wages in non-unionised sectors necessarily increase with firm entry, while the response of union wages and welfare depends on the trade regime.     

The choice of appropriate technology in a general equilibrium model

This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology. The paper studies the problem from the perspective of a small, labor abundant open economy that does not generate its own technology. The economic planners must choose between two technologies, one better geared toward the production of labor intensive goods, the other to capital intensive goods. It is shown that the choice of technology not only will affect the welfare level, but it can also reverse the pattern of international trade. It is also shown that the imposition of a tariff can lead the planner to choose a different technology from the one that is optimal under free trade.     

Exceeding the speed limit: prevalence and determinants in Iran

Speeding is one of the most common risk behaviours associated with crashes causing signficant injury. The objective of this study is to explore the prevalence and determinants of speeding on a road between Tehran and Hamadan, Iran. In a cross-sectional study in 2009, stretches of the road were studied including three groups of posted speed limits: < 50 km/h, 50–100 km/h and > 100 km/h. Each stretch was evaluated both in daylight and dark. Randomly identified driver's speed was checked by a handheld speed camera and then the driver was invited to participate in a survey. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-Square, crude and adjusted odds ratio, 95% confidence interval and multiple logistic regression models. Overall, 52.8% of the drivers were travelling more than 10 km/h above the posted limit. Where limits were < 50 km/h, 74.6% of drivers were speeding. This declined to 46.9% for sections with limits between 50 and 100 km/h and to 36.9% for sections posted more than 100 km/h. Finally, more than half the drivers were observed to be speeding. Driving more than the posted limit was far more likely on the areas with the lowest posted speed limits, personal passenger vehicles, modern vehicles not using seat belts, and male drivers.     

Estimation of traffic accident costs: a prompted model

Traffic accidents are the reason for 25% of unnatural deaths in Iran. The main objective of this study is to find a simple model for the estimation of economic costs especially in Islamic countries (like Iran) in a straightforward manner. The model can show the magnitude of traffic accident costs with monetary equivalent. Data were collected from different sources that included traffic police records, insurance companies and hospitals. The conceptual framework, in our study, was based on the method of Ayati. He used this method for the estimation of economic costs in Iran. We promoted his method via minimum variables. Our final model has only three available variables which can be taken from insurance companies and police records. The running model showed that the traffic accident costs were US$2.2 million in 2007 for our case study route.     

Injuries and their burden in insured construction workers in Iran, 2012

The present study used disability adjusted life years (DALY) to estimate the burden of external cause of injuries in construction workers insured in Iran in 2012. The Global Burden of Disease method (2010) was used to estimate the years of life lost due to death (YLL) and years of life lost due to disability (YLD). DALY was calculated as the sum of YLL and YLD. There were 5352 injured construction workers in Iran (11.25 individuals per 1000). Falling was the most common incidence and included 2490 individuals (46.53%). Totally, DALY was estimated 18,557 years for all age groups and both genders including 17,821 YLD (96%) and 736 YLL (4%). The DALY related to construction work is high in Iran and it has notably affected the young. Hence more preventive methods should be applied to reduce the overall burden of specific external cause of injuries especially in young and inexperienced workers.     

The Razor's edge: Managing MNC affiliates in Iran

Much has been written on the nature of international assignees’ experiences of managing Multinational Corporation (MNC) affiliates in the context of Western economies. This study aims to broaden the debate and elucidate these issues in the largely overlooked region of Middle East with a particular focus on Iran. Data from six MNC affiliates across two high growth global industries reveals that the nature of international assignees’ experiences can be explained in terms of desirable, indifference, and undesirable effects of managing MNC affiliates. Specifically, it was found that the international assignees’ perceptions of managing MNC affiliates were formed prior to their appointments. Furthermore, while conformance to headquarter (HQ) managerial orientations was seen to serve as a proxy for earlier desirable experiences of these international assignees, their current performance was seen to deteriorate by the need to fully comply with the HQ's way of doing things. Together, these findings support the view that the degree of congruence or fit between, on the one hand, the HQ and international assignees’ orientations, and on the other hand, between the international assignees and the host country culture could have implications for the success or failure of the international assignees in the context of Iranian-based MNCs. Finally, the paper concludes with implications and lessons for policy makers, practitioners and academics.     

Trade and imperfect competition in general equilibrium

This paper employs a multi-industry general equilibrium model of oligopolistic competition, free market entry and trade in which capital is used to establish firms and labor is used for production. We show that both absolute and relative endowments matter for the pattern of trade. We demonstrate that market entry to each industry is either too excessive or too moderate while the effect on firm size is ambiguous. If countries are sufficiently symmetric, trade will increase the wage–rental ratio in both countries. Furthermore, trade will increase per-capita consumption in capital-intensive industries and reduce it in labor-intensive industries. Nevertheless, trade will be mutually welfare-improving under relatively mild conditions.     

基于CGE模型定量分析国际贸易绿色壁垒对我国经济的影响——以发达国家对我国出口品征收碳关税为例

美、欧发达国家为促进本国绿色产业发展,以"碳关税"为突破口,在国际贸易中试图设置绿色壁垒。本文以剖析碳关税的潜在影响为例,建立了国际贸易壁垒对我国经济影响的系统分析框架,并利用动态可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)定量测算了各方面经济影响。结果表明,碳关税对我国实体经济的影响要小于对名义价格水平的影响;对高耗能产品出口抑制作用明显,而对高附加值产品出口影响很小,甚至会有刺激作用。     

A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination

This paper builds a baseline two-country model of real and monetary transmission in the presence of optimal international price discrimination by firms. Distributing traded goods to consumers requires nontradables, making the price elasticity of demand country-specific and a function of the exchange rate. Profit-maximizing monopolistic firms drive a wedge between prices across countries, optimally dampening the response of import and consumer prices to exchange-rate movements. We derive general equilibrium expressions for the pass-through into import and consumer prices, tracing the differential impact of real and monetary shocks on marginal cost and markup fluctuations through the exchange rate.     

The rate of seat belt use and its related factors among car drivers in Tehran,Iran after imposing new regulations

The incidence of road crash deaths is high in Iran. Seat belts can reduce the risk of death or serious injury. This study aimed to estimate the rate of seat belt use and its related factors for car drivers in Tehran, Iran after proclamation of the 2011 legislation. A roadside observational study was conducted in 2012 and 10,752 cars and taxis commuting in different streets of Tehran were screened in regard to drivers' seat belt wearing. Other variables including gender, age range, type of street, district, time of day and day of week were also collected. The rate of seat belt use was 70.9%, and was significantly higher in females, elders and on freeways and significantly less in afternoon hours, side streets and in taxi drivers. The rate of seat belt use in Tehran (a representative of Iran) is still low despite the implementation of new legislations. More initiatives are needed to increase this rate especially in certain groups and areas.     

A multi-motivational general model of entrepreneurial intention

We develop and test an overarching model of entrepreneurial intention that includes profit, social impact, and innovation as the three main drivers of entrepreneurial behavior. A holistic model is developed to identify separately the generic intention to be a self-employed entrepreneur from the associated intention to be a specific type of entrepreneur. The latter is revealed by using a conjoint experiment to reveal the individual's relative preferences for profit, social impact, and innovation outcomes. Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis we provide insights into individuals' motivations for different types of entrepreneurial careers and for their multiple pathways to the same entrepreneurial type.     

International trade with endogenous mode of competition in general equilibrium

This paper endogenizes the extent of intra-sectoral competition in a multi-sectoral general-equilibrium model of oligopoly and trade. Firms choose capacity followed by prices. If the benefits of capacity investment in a given sector are below a threshold level, the sector exhibits Bertrand behavior, otherwise it exhibits Cournot behavior. By endogenizing the threshold parameter in general equilibrium, we show how exogenous shocks such as globalization and technological change alter the mix of sectors between “more” and “less” competitive, or Bertrand and Cournot, and affect the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers, even in a “North–North” model with identical countries.     

中国出口增长的就业效应:基于CGE模型的分析

本文通过构建一个具有中国劳动就业结构特征的CGE模型,以2008年下半年国际金融危机以来全球经济增长变化和中国实施经济刺激计划为背景,设计不同的情景方案,模拟分析了中国出口变化对劳动就业的影响效应。结果显示:出口增长1个百分点可以实现0.088个百分点的非农就业增长。但出口就业效应相对于不同的产业部门和就业群体而言具有明显的差异,出口下降将导致纺织、制造业等部门就业人数的显著减少,农民工就业压力明显超过城镇就业。因为出口就业效应显著低于投资就业效应,国际金融危机以来我国劳动就业不仅在数量上经历了从大幅减少到显著增长的突变,同时在结构上也出现了从可贸易部门向非贸易部门的转换。权衡劳动力比较优势利用和产业结构升级,重视就业基数大、出口就业弹性低的服务业部门劳动力吸收能力的提高,实现就业的结构性均衡增长,应成为确保我国未来就业安全的政策方向。     

The theory of effective protection in general equilibrium with interindustrial flows

The purpose of the present note is to demonstrate that the sufficiency condition of Bruno (1973) and Sendo (1974) on tariff changes is valid as an ERP index in the sense defined by Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1973), within the framework of the Bhagwati-Srinivasan general equilibrium model with two industries, even if we admit interindustrial flows.     

Trade and inequality in developing countries: a general equilibrium analysis

Developing and newly industrialized countries that have experienced the sharpest increases in wage inequality are those whose export shares have shifted towards more skill-intensive goods. We argue that this can be explained by technological catch-up. We develop this insight using a model that features both Ricardian and endowments-based comparative advantage. In this model, Southern catch-up causes production of the least skill-intensive Northern goods to migrate South (where they become the most skill-intensive Southern goods). This raises wage inequality in both the South and the North. We provide empirical evidence that strongly supports this causal mechanism: Southern catch-up exacerbates Southern inequality by redirecting Southern export shares towards more skill-intensive goods.     

基于CGE模型定量探析碳关税对我国经济的影响

碳关税是发达国家在应对金融危机中为保持本国经济对其他国家设置的绿色壁垒。文章基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,在生产模块、对外贸易模块、收入支出模块、碳关税模块等模型相互嵌入式的构建,定量探析碳关税对我国对外贸易、总体经济、生态环境、不同省区经济的影响,进而得出碳关税政策对我国外贸、经济生产等方面造成较大负面影响,而在生态环境改善下影响甚微,其实质是一种保护本国经济、阻碍中国经济发展的贸易壁垒。     

A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages

This paper presents a general equilibrium trade model in which homogeneous firms choose a technology from a set of competing technologies and choose employees from a set of workers of heterogeneous skill. In equilibrium, the interaction between the characteristics of competing technologies, international trade costs, and the availability of workers of heterogeneous skill gives rise to firm heterogeneity. The model generates several of the stylized facts concerning the (apparent) superiority of firms that engage in international trade relative to those that do not and has implications for the effect of international trade on the skill premium and on observed industry-level productivity.     

人民币升值对我国宏观经济影响的CGE分析

通过利用动态CGE模型-MCHUGE模型仿真研究人民币升值对我国宏观经济的影响,可以看出人民币升值对中国经济造成了一定的冲击,出现了一定程度经济紊乱和就业恶化。7年内,中国的实际GDP保持持续降低,但降低幅度呈现逐渐减弱的态势。实际消费、政府支出、净出口、实际工资、总的就业水平均有所下降,特别是居民实际消费和政府支出的下降,极大地带动了GDP的下降;此外,中国的贸易条件得到一定程度的改善,居民消费指数下降。     

Distribution of world income in the Ricardo-Mill model of international trade

Changes in the distribution of world income and relative welfare in response to exogenous changes in country size are investigated in a two country many commodity Ricardo-Mill model of international trade. This inquiry was opened by Dornbusch, Fischer and Samuelson for the case of a continuum of commodities. Attention here is focused on the two and three commodity cases and how the production possibility set changes as commodities become neighbors in the continuum.