Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran

This article presents a case study of the effectiveness of the US unilateral trade and financial sanctions on Iran. To assess the trade sanctions’ effect, the US–Iran historical trade data are examined, and the economic cost of trade sanctions is measured by applying the concept of welfare loss. The financial sanctions’ impacts are evaluated by assessing the extra charges Iran has paid on its foreign debt obligations and for financing its oil development projects. At the end, the efficacy of the US sanctions policy towards Iran is evaluated. It is found that the financial sanctions have had a more powerful impact than the trade sanctions. The analysis also shows that the unilateral import sanctions on the fungible crude oil have been ineffective. It is concluded that, overall, the sanctions’ economic effect has been significant, while its political effect has been minimal. This article suggests that targeting the sanctions towards the ruling clergy can improve their effectiveness while lessening their side effects on the Iranian population. Precise smart sanctions to force the ruling clerics to step down will calm down Islamic fundamentalisms throughout the region and will contribute to peace and better relations with the West.     

政府公共文化支出对家庭文化消费的影响研究——基于中国家庭追踪调查的分析

政府在促进文化消费中发挥重要作用。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年和2016年的家庭经济数据,利用Tobit模型实证分析了政府公共文化支出对家庭文化消费的影响,以及该影响在城镇和农村家庭、不同收入水平家庭中表现出的异质性。研究表明:政府公共文化支出增加有助于提高家庭文娱支出占比,且在缩尾处理和更换关键变量的稳健性检验中,核心结论仍然成立;但是,政府公共文化支出对文化消费的挤入效应主要局限于城镇家庭及中低收入家庭,对农村家庭、低收入和中高收入家庭的刺激作用不显著。应继续扩大文化事业财政支出规模,优化公共文化服务资源配置,重点扶持农村文化娱乐消费,同时提高文化产品和服务供给质量。     

习惯形成、信息鸿沟与异质福利--基于中国地区层面居民信息消费数据的数值模拟分析

本文尝试将消费习惯引入信息消费增速提升的福利效应模型,并以此模型为基础,运用1992～2012年中国城镇居民家庭信息消费数据,测算了信息消费增速提升给中国不同区域城镇居民带来的差异福利影响。研究发现：第一,内部习惯特征对中国城镇居民信息消费的福利效应具有显著影响。引入习惯特征后,信息消费增速提升1%相当于在其未来无限生命期界内每年补贴0.27%-26.05%信息消费产品或服务;第二,无论是同质性偏好还是异质性偏好假设,四大板块中的东北和中西部地区城镇居民信息消费的福利效应均高于东部地区,区域间信息鸿沟转化为福利差异。因此,在稳步推进收入分配和社会保障体制改革的同时,应当加大对中西部地区信息基础设施政策支持力度。     

收入不确定性对城乡居民消费支出影响的比较研究——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

基于2000—2009年的面板数据,在测度中国城乡居民收入不确定性的基础上,比较研究了城乡居民不同类别收入的不确定性对居民分类消费支出的影响,结果表明:各省城乡居民各类收入均出现了不确定性;不同省份城乡居民各类收入的不确定性有所差异,各省内部城乡居民收入的不确定性也不相同;从全国的视角看,各类收入的不确定性对总体消费造成了结构性影响,农村居民收入的不确定性大于城镇居民收入的不确定性。     

农村养老保险基金缺口预测及实证分析——基于甘肃省的调查研究

以政府财政投入为特征的新型农村社会养老保险试点以来,农民参保人数和参保率呈逐年上升趋势,制度绩效明显提高。本文构建了农村养老保险基金缺口精算模型,通过实证分析得出,随着人口老龄化程度的提高,导致养老保险资金出现较大的收支缺口,未来各年度所需的养老保险金支出政府承担的财政压力较大,农村集体经济承担的养老保险责任将会超出其相应的经济能力。为此,建议不断扩大农村养老保险覆盖范围,多渠道筹集资金,加大中央财政支持力度,合理划分各级地方政府的财政责任,大力发展农村集体经济。     

Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

Are Apparel Trade Restrictions Regressive?

Consumer welfare losses from apparel trade restrictions are estimated across different household income levels using Hicksian Equivalent Variations. The 1980–1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the 1980–1992 Consumer Price Index, and the 1990 ACCRA Cost of Living Index were used. For price differences under 45 percent, consumer welfare loss from higher apparel prices due to trade restrictions is greater as a percent of total expenditures for wealthy households than for poor households. Apparel trade restrictions, therefore, have a progressive effect.     

基于社会核算矩阵的中国收入再分配效应分析

根据中国2007年的社会核算矩阵(SAM)表,利用基于SAM的乘数和相对乘数方法,分析中国各部门收入分配和再分配的结构效应,结果表明:当外生注入行业部门时,大部分行业之间的分配和再分配影响是非相互促进的,行业部门对城乡高等阶层的初始分配比较有利,对城乡中等阶层的再分配较有利;当外生注入居民部门时,各阶层居民之间以及居民对生产部门的分配和再分配的影响也是非相互促进的;当外生注入政府部门时,政府对各行业的分配和再分配的影响是不对称的,不利于高等阶层但却比较有利于低等阶层的分配和再分配。     

城乡居民收入变迁对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文根据1985-2010年的经济数据,利用协整理论、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等方法对城乡居民收入与经济增长之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,从长期来看,农村居民收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的双向因果关系,而城镇居民收入与经济增长之间只存在单向的因果关系,而且农村居民收入增长对经济增长的促进作用强于城市居民收入增长带来的作用;短期内农村居民收入增长对经济增长经历了先阻碍后促进的过程,而城市居民收入增长虽不断促进经济增长,但是促进的作用逐渐下降。因此,在持续增加农村居民收入的同时,也要兼顾城市居民收入的增长。     

浙江省农民收入增长影响因素分析 ——基于CHFS调查数据

缩小城乡收入差距并研究其影响因素,是实现乡村振新战略的必然要求。利用中国家庭金融调查中心数据,对农户收入影响因素进行实证分析。发现耕地市值、劳动力数量、受教育水平、金融素养对农民收入增长起到较显著的正向影响;而农村家庭持有金融资产以及年龄对其总体收入增长起到负面影响,其负作用一定程度上来源于农户金融素养匮乏所导致的家庭资产结构配置不合理。应该持续推进农村居民素质教育工作,促进家庭资产的合理配置,应对快速发展的复杂金融市场所带来的金融风险,进一步有效促进农民合理增收,缓解城乡收入差距过大等问题。     

促进收入公平分配的财政政策取向

改革开放以来,我国城乡居民收入的总体水平得到了很大的提高的同时,收入分配领域存在的矛盾和问题也日益突出,对经济和社会发展产生越来越明显的不利影响。我国应大力推进农业和农村经济结构的战略性调整,发展高产优质高效农业,千方百计增加农民收入;切实提高劳动报酬在国民收入初次分配中的比重;充分运用税收手段调节居民收入;大力调整垄断行业的利润分配格局;进一步提高社会保障标准,从而切实解决收入分配问题,缩小收入差距。     

Changes in food provision in Russian households experiencing perestroika

The purpose of this article is to describe how households in Novgorod the Great, Russia, deal with food provision in everyday life. The study focuses on changes experienced in food provision and consumption in Russian society, in order to illustrate how households respond to the transformation towards a market economy. The study reflects women's perspective on food provision. Students from Novgorod the Great visited 105 households and asked the women in the household to answer a questionnaire. Results from the study show that in order to cope with changes in society related to economic reforms, Russian households had changed both their food consumption and food production patterns. There was no big difference between urban and rural households. Nearly all of the households were self‐sufficient in the provision of vegetables and potatoes. Many households had a ‘dacha’ (plot), where they produced most of what they needed. Among the changes experienced during recent years (i.e. during the end of the 1990s), a decade after perestroika was initiated, households mentioned the rise in food prices and the decrease of income. Households reported that they consumed less fruit and/or meat. Some households also mentioned that the quality of nourishment had decreased, thereby indicating lower general quality, lower nutrition value, or less healthy foodstuffs.     

Urban development,excessive entry of firms and wage inequality in developing countries

This paper examines the short and long-term effects of urbanisation, via favourable urban development policies, on income distribution and social welfare for a developing country, in which the urban manufacturing sector is characterised by imperfect competition and free entry. Urbanisation shifts rural workers to the highly productive urban sector, while causing production in urban firms to expand because of scale economies. However, urbanisation may worsen wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labour in the short term. In the long term, urbanisation can attract new firms to the urban sector and favourable urban development policies may result in excessive entry of firms, which can amplify wage inequality in the economy. This entry-amplifying effect is confirmed empirically, especially for low and lower-middle-income countries. If the entry effect is not considered, the impact of urbanisation on wage inequality could be understated by 13% for low and lower-middle-income countries.     

Sources of knowledge and process innovation: The moderating role of perceived competitive intensity

Global competition means that firms are under pressure to systematically develop the efficiency of their manufacturing processes. However, little has been said in the international business literature about how firms, especially those subject to severe barriers, can search for knowledge within and across national boundaries to help in the development of process innovation. We build on key aspects of the innovation and search strategy literature to develop our conceptual model and hypotheses, which we test in the context of a less-developed, isolated, and closed economy, using data from 171 automotive component suppliers in Iran. We find that foreign knowledge search is positively related to process innovation, even in an economy that operates under severe economic sanctions. This contributes to the international business field by providing evidence that, while economic sanctions are increasingly used in modern geopolitics by the world’s most powerful countries, these actions may fail to achieve their goals with respect to individual businesses.     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Strukturelle Schwäche der russischen Wirtschaft

The economic situation in Russia is dramatic. GDP decreased by alarming 3.7 per cent in 2015. The imposed economic sanctions as well as the fall in oil prices have contributed to the downward spiral. However, the real weaknesses of the Russian economy are more structural in nature. The strong dependence on the oil and gas business, corruption problems, setbacks in privatisation efforts and the inefficient use of the existing human capital require greater commitment on the part of the government to commit to a return to a sustainable growth path. Individual sectors and companies in Germany suffered considerable losses of revenue in the course of the economic crisis in Russia. Overall, however, the effect on the German economy has been rather moderate.     

Inflation,R&D and growth in an open economy

This study explores the long-run effects of inflation in a two-country Schumpeterian growth model with cash-in-advance constraints on consumption and R&D investment. We find that increasing domestic inflation reduces domestic R&D investment and the growth rate of domestic technology. Given that economic growth in a country depends on both domestic and foreign technologies, increasing foreign inflation also affects the domestic economy. When each government conducts its monetary policy unilaterally to maximize the welfare of domestic households, the Nash-equilibrium inflation rates are generally higher than the optimal inflation rates chosen by cooperative governments who maximize the welfare of both domestic and foreign households. Under the CIA constraint on R&D (consumption), a larger market power of firms amplifies (mitigates) this inflationary bias. We use cross-country panel data to estimate the effects of inflation on R&D and also calibrate the two-country model to data in the Euro Area and the US to quantify the welfare effects of decreasing the inflation rates from the Nash equilibrium to the optimal level.     

A macroeconomics perspective on international coordination in sales taxes

This article investigates how international coordination vis-à-vis sales tax policies affects the welfare of participating countries. A country's tax policies have asymmetric effects on the pricing behaviors of domestic and overseas producers. International cooperation endogenizes the externality that improves the purchasing power of foreign residents, but at the cost of its own residents’ work efforts. The first-best taxes are lower than in the noncooperative case. When world welfare is utilitarian, smaller economies may experience welfare losses from cooperation under the weak income effect of sales tax. We propose a coordinated tax rule that all countries agree to employ.     

如何构建我国有效的收入分配通道

在叙述了我国收入分配差距现状之后,提出了必须深化我国市场经济体制改革,健全收入分配制度,完善社会保障制度,实现教育公平,解决城乡二元结构及腐败问题,构建有效收入分配通道的建议。     

财政分权与农村公路供给——以我国省级面板数据为例

农村公路供给对农村经济、社会发展具有巨大的促进作用。根据财政分权理论,地方政府在提供地方公共产品上具有信息优势,增加地方政府的财政能力将有利于农村公路供给水平的提高。影响我国农村公路供给水平的主要决定因素有财政分权水平、农民收入水平、乡镇企业发展水平以及公共产品供给决策中的民主程度等。中国大陆31个省级地区的面板数据分析表明,财政分权、乡镇企业发展对农村公路供给具有较强的正向效应,农民收入的正向影响效应较小,公共产品决策中的民主程度对供给效应无显著性。