Cross-border production sharing and exchange-rate sensitivity of Mexico's trade balance

Increasing patterns of international trade occur in the form of cross-border production sharing – the dispersion of separate blocks of an integrated production process across different nations. In the case of ‘standard’ or ‘ordinary’ trade, imports are destined for use in the importing country, and exports are largely produced within the country. However, with production sharing, imported parts and components are destined for inclusion in the country's exports. A depreciation of a nation's currency raises its exports. At the same time, imported components become more expensive, which partly offsets the expansionary effect of the depreciation on exports. Using a simple theoretical framework, this paper shows that production networks lower the sensitivity of a country's trade balance to changes in exchange rates. The empirical examination finds Mexico's Maquiladora trade balance to be unresponsive to changes in both, its real effective as well as its real peso-dollar rates, while that for non-Maquiladora category is significantly responsive, in confirmation with the theorized hypothesis.     

Anti‐dumping duty circumvention through trade rerouting: Evidence from Chinese exporters

We study the evasion of US anti‐dumping duties by some Chinese exporters through trade rerouting via third countries or regions. Using detailed monthly trade data reported by China and the US Customs during the period of 2002–06, we find that US anti‐dumping actions against China lead to a stronger positive correlation between US imports from third countries and Chinese exports to the same third countries. Such a positive correlation is more pronounced for the products subject to anti‐dumping duties (treatment groups) than similar products not subject to these duties (control groups). The evidence is stronger for less‐differentiated products whose certificates of origins are easier to be modified and is stronger for third countries where the rerouting cost is low. These findings are consistent with a trade rerouting story, rather than a simple story of trade diversion (i.e., increase in some third countries' imports from China) and trade deflection (i.e., increase in some third‐country exports to the US). We also rule out other alternative stories, consider prior production in third countries and concurrent anti‐dumping actions against China or third countries, pay a particular attention to the many zero trade flows in the monthly level data and check the robustness to using an alternative control group and quarterly data, etc.     

Individual and organizational learning from inter‐firm knowledge sharing: A framework integrating inter‐firm and intra‐firm knowledge sharing and learning

Literature has highlighted but not explored links between knowledge sharing and learning at inter‐firm and intra‐firm levels. Using the single case of an aviation refuelling company as the basis for our research methodology and collecting data through 34 semi‐structured interviews, we develop a framework that integrates knowledge sharing and learning at inter‐firm and intra‐firm levels. We show that intra‐firm knowledge sharing capabilities facilitate the diffusion of inter‐firm learning within organizations. Moreover, inter‐firm trust manifests in different forms that affect individual and organizational learning. The purpose of collaboration determines what a firm learns or discards. The findings are important for organizations facing a shortage of skills. © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Employer‐employee profit‐sharing and the incentives to innovate when the dismissal regulation matters

We develop a simple incomplete‐contract model of the relationship between worker participation to revenue sharing and innovation performance of firms, under firing regimes with different stringency. Stronger worker participation to profits is shown to increase innovation probability when employer‐side hold‐up is prevented by stringent layoff regulation and the human capital matters significantly. Vice‐versa, under a strict layoff regulation, when the financial capital is relatively more important, the effects of worker participation devices may be reduced or inverted. Our results may help in understanding why there is no one‐size‐fits‐all optimal strategy in the design of worker financial participation mechanisms for knowledge‐intensive productions.     

Aid for trade and export diversification in recipient‐countries

The Aid‐for‐Trade (AfT) Initiative was launched by the Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a view to helping developing countries and the least‐developed countries (LDCs) expand their trade. The current paper contributes to the literature on AfT effectiveness by examining how AfT affects recipient‐countries' export product diversification. The analysis has been carried out on a sample of 104 AfT recipient‐countries over the period 2002–2015 and uses the two‐step system generalised methods of moments (GMM) approach. Results show that AfT flows are conducive to export product diversification in recipient‐countries. In addition, the analysis has shown a positive impact of the cumulative AfT flows on the export product diversification path of these countries. These results apply as well to the subsamples of LDCs and other developing countries. One policy implication of these results is that a scale‐up of AfT would help recipient‐countries to diversify their export products baskets and hence facilitate their greater integration into the global trading system.     

OPTIMAL INSURANCE DESIGN UNDER RANK‐DEPENDENT EXPECTED UTILITY

We consider an optimal insurance design problem for an individual whose preferences are dictated by the rank‐dependent expected utility (RDEU) theory with a concave utility function and an inverse‐S shaped probability distortion function. This type of RDEU is known to describe human behavior better than the classical expected utility. By applying the technique of quantile formulation, we solve the problem explicitly. We show that the optimal contract not only insures large losses above a deductible but also insures small losses fully. This is consistent, for instance, with the demand for warranties. Finally, we compare our results, analytically and numerically, both to those in the expected utility framework and to cases in which the distortion function is convex or concave.     

The great trade collapse and the Spanish export miracle: Firm‐level evidence from the crisis

We provide novel evidence on the microstructure of international trade during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent global recession by exploring a rich firm‐level data set from Spain. The focus of our analysis is on changes at the extensive and intensive firm‐level margins of trade, as well as on performance differences (jobs, productivity and firm survival) across firms that differ in their export status. We find no adverse effects of the financial crisis on foreign market entry or exit, but a considerable increase in the export intensity of firms after the financial crisis. Moreover, we find that exporters were more resilient to the crisis than non‐exporters. Finally, while exporters showed a significantly more favourable development of total factor productivity after 2009 than non‐exporters, aggregate productivity declined substantially in a large number of industries in Spanish manufacturing. We also briefly explore two factors that might help explain the surprisingly strong export performance of Spain in the aftermath of the great trade collapse: improved aggregate competitiveness due to internal and external devaluation and a substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales at the firm level.     

Introducing a three‐tier sustainability framework to examine bike‐sharing system use: An extension of the technology acceptance model

There is growing interest among the general public and researchers in the sharing economy, because of its profound impact on individuals, businesses and governments today. A particular kind of the sharing economy is bike‐sharing systems which provide benefits for users, societies and the environment, suggesting sustainability could play an important role in their use. With this in mind, the purpose of this paper is to examine bike‐sharing users through a three‐tier framework, where sustainability is considered at multiple tiers, that is, micro (personality), mezzo (relations) and macro (system) tiers. In line with this proposition, the conceptual model is an extension of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), representing factors at the macro tier, that is, perceived sustainable usefulness and ease‐of‐use, influenced by bike quality. The effect of sustainable subjective norms on loyalty plays out at the mezzo tier, while sustainable extraversion is linked to loyalty at the micro tier. The model was tested on a sample of bike‐sharing system users. The results show that bike quality positively influences perceived sustainable usefulness, but not ease‐of‐use; however, ease‐of‐use positively influences loyalty among users, while usefulness does not. In addition, sustainable subjective norms and sustainable extraversion have a significant positive effect on user bike‐sharing system loyalty. The findings offer a range of implications for the providers of bike‐sharing systems, municipalities and governments which are promoting alternative means of transportation to reduce the carbon footprint.     

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia: The role of value‐added trade

We empirically investigate the relationship between business cycle synchronisation and the role of value‐added trade focusing on a panel of 12 Asian countries from 1995 to 2011. In addition, we propose the inclusion of two novel determinants, for example external value‐added trade intensity and exchange rate volatility and also saturate our empirical model with other common determinants found in the literature. Our findings first confirm that value‐added trade intensity, rather than gross trade intensity, has a sizable, positive and statistically significant impact on synchronisation among East Asian countries. Second, the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the business cycle synchronisation, which verifies that the exchange rate volatility is another important determinant of business cycle synchronisation. Our findings have important implications for the monetary cooperation in the region: strengthening trade linkage could reduce the costs of monetary cooperation by increasing the incidence of symmetric shocks.     

Internationalization of services: The case of intra‐multinational enterprise trade

Increased tradability of services, made possible by the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution, has been at the heart of the internationalization of services. Although rapid growth of the services trade between parents of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their overseas subsidiaries has contributed to the internationalization of services, empirical studies examining the determinants of intra‐MNE trade in services are few. This article, using the ownership, location, and internalization (OLI) framework, attempts to explain intra‐MNE trade in services. The results provide strong support for the OLI perspective, and posit a complementary relationship between manufacturing foreign direct investment and intra‐MNE services trade. The results also suggest the importance of subsidiaries' absorptive capacity and breadth of global connectedness for intra‐MNE trade.     

Asymmetric effects of demand uncertainty on intrafirm trade in durable and non‐durable industries

This paper unveils a new empirical regularity regarding the asymmetric patterns of international sourcing modes in the durable and non‐durable industries under uncertainty, and explains the asymmetry based on the traditional lens of the transaction cost economics. Under demand uncertainty, firms face trade‐offs between outsourcing and vertical integration: while outsourcing requires less initial investment and allows easier market entry and exit, vertical integration offers better management and communication systems. In the durable industries, consistent with the transaction cost economics, the relationship between vertical integration and uncertainty is positive. In the nondurable industries, however, such relationship is weaker because inelastic demand and shorter gaps between production and sales mitigate the effect of uncertainty. I show the asymmetric effects of uncertainty based on a simple general equilibrium model and provide consistent empirical evidence using US intrafirm trade and microeconomic uncertainty data.     

Optimal insurance under rank‐dependent utility and incentive compatibility

Bernard, He, Yan, and Zhou (Mathematical Finance, 25(1), 154–186) studied an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank‐dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their results suffer from the unrealistic assumption that the random loss has no atom, as well as a problem of moral hazard that provides incentives for the insured to falsely report the actual loss. This paper addresses these setbacks by removing the nonatomic assumption, and by exogenously imposing the “incentive compatibility” constraint that both indemnity function and insured's retention function are increasing with respect to the loss. We characterize the optimal solutions via calculus of variations, and then apply the result to obtain explicitly expressed contracts for problems with Yaari's dual criterion and general RDU. Finally, we use numerical examples to compare the results between ours and Bernard et al.     

Understanding consumption behaviours for fair trade non‐food products: focusing on self‐transcendence and openness to change values

Using the Schwartz value system, this study explored the personal values of consumers related to fair trade product consumption. This study further investigated how the values determine beliefs, attitudes and purchase intentions associated with fair trade non‐food products. Data were collected using an online survey from a random sample of 1824 nationwide consumers. The results of this study revealed that fair trade purchasers show a higher level of self‐transcendence (universalism, benevolence) and openness to change values (self‐direction, stimulation) than non‐purchasers. These values also have positive effects on the formation of beliefs, attitudes and purchase intentions pertaining to fair trade non‐food products. Fair trade purchasers were also found to possess distinctive socio‐demographic characteristics concerning age, education and income. Findings can offer marketers specific information regarding consumers' motivations to purchase fair trade goods, which can improve targeting of products and ultimately increase the business and benefits of fair trade.     

The heterogeneous competitive effects of trade and foreign direct investment: Firm‐level evidence for European countries

This study evaluates the pro‐competitive effect of foreign market penetration with a broad firm‐level database that covers manufacturing industries in six European countries. The main contribution is the demonstration of the heterogeneous effects on host country competition of the two main channels of foreign market penetration that have been assigned fundamental differences by economic theory: imports and foreign direct investment. The results of dynamic estimates of firm‐level markups reveal a pro‐competitive effect of imports, while foreign direct investment shows no clear overall impact, suggesting a cancelling out of competitive pressure and spillovers. These findings matter for both future empirical research and policy considerations that must weigh the positive and negative effects of foreign market integration on the competitive environment and consumer welfare.     

Trust and the don't‐want‐to‐complain bias in peer‐to‐peer platform markets

This paper addresses peer‐to‐peer (P2P) digital platform markets, often associated with the “sharing economy” or the “collaborative economy”. Such digital platforms, facilitating new purchasing channels for consumers by matching P2P supply and demand, can be considered new market places challenging the conventional markets. How are P2P platform markets evaluated by the consumers? Based on a comprehensive survey‐data material, five different P2P service markets are considered by peer buyers and the results compared to consumers’ evaluations from similar conventional service markets according to trust, comparability and consumers’ satisfaction with the transactions. Comparability seems to be one advantage for the platform markets, while trust could become a problem. Conditions for trust in P2P platform markets is particularly interesting to study because contrary to conventional markets P2P transactions cannot rely on governmental laws, regulations and security net. This trust problem has been solved by a trust‐generating rate and review system. Our data material, however, distinguishes a mechanism that we have coined as the don't‐want‐to‐complain bias. More precisely, people do not like to complain, hence buyers of P2P services often hesitate to give negative ratings when they are discontent with a service or a supplier. Therefore, positive ratings become overestimated. If consumers recognize this bias, ratings and reviews will lose credibility and no longer be considered trustworthy. Eventually, this may threaten the well‐functioning of P2P markets.     

US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

Transport costs and trade: Empirical evidence for Latin American imports from the European union

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between trade flows and transport costs. In previous studies the cost of transport was considered as an exogenous variable. However, an expanding volume of trade also reduces the unit cost of transport and, therefore, the causal relationship between trade and transport costs may be operating in both directions. A transport-costs equation is estimated using data on transportation costs from the International Transport Data Base (BTI). The relationship between transport costs and trade is then analysed by applying a gravity model for sectoral imports for five Latin American Countries from the European Union. We investigate the endogeneity of the transport cost and trade variables by estimating simultaneously both equations. Our results show that, while higher distance and poor importer's infrastructure notably increase transport costs, a higher volume of trade has the opposite effect. Moreover, trade is significantly deterred by higher transport costs and fostered by cultural similarities.     

Market access implications of non‐tariff measures: Estimates for four developed country markets

We quantify the effects of non‐tariff measures on the extensive margin of trade, examining the number of countries exporting particular products to Canada, the European Union, New Zealand and the United States. We find that non‐tariff measures that impose a conformity requirement, that is, testing, certification or inspection, will reduce the number of countries exporting to these markets. Conformity requirements imposed for sanitary or phytosanitary reasons have the largest effect in Canada, reducing the number of exporting countries by 47% compared to the situation where no compliance requirement is imposed. Conformity requirements imposed for other reasons covered by the WTO Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade have the largest effect in Canada and New Zealand, reducing the number of exporting countries by 27% compared to the situation where no compliance requirement is imposed. However, we generally find a statistically significant positive effect for nontariff measures that do not impose a compliance burden, suggesting that such measures may facilitate trade.     

An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US

This paper follows a non‐linear ARDL error‐correction approach to examine the presence of the J‐curve in the commodity‐level trade between the United States and China. The analysis disaggregates the US–China trade flows by commodities and separately examines the trade balance responses of 97 commodities to the changes in the real yuan–US$ exchange rates. The analysis at the commodity level alleviates potential aggregation bias that is present in earlier studies offering little evidence for long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the China–US trade balance. We find strong support for short‐run asymmetric effects in the case of two‐third of the commodities, whereas significant long‐run asymmetric effects are present in the case of one‐third of the commodities including those commodities which command large shares in the China–US trade.     

Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy

This paper addresses the ability of central banks to affect the structure of interest rates. We assess the causal relationship between the short‐term Effective Federal Funds Rate (FF) and long‐term interest rates associated with both public and private bonds and specifically, the 10‐Year Treasury Bond (GB10Y) and the Moody's Aaa Corporate Bond (AAA). To do this, we apply Structural Vector Autoregressive models to U.S. monthly data for the 1954–2018 period. Based on results derived from impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, we find: a bidirectional relationship when GB10Y is considered as the long‐term rate and a unidirectional relationship that moves from short‐ to long‐term interest rates when AAA is considered. These conclusions show that monetary policy is able to permanently affect long‐term interest rates and the central bank has a certain degree of freedom in setting the levels of the short‐term policy rate.