Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

Abstract The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household‐level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999, and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID’s sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one’s confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID’s complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.     

Poverty,undernutrition and vulnerability in rural India: role of rural public works and food for work programmes

This paper analyses the effects of access to Rural Public Works (RPW) or Food for Work programme (FFW) on consumption poverty, vulnerability and undernutrition in India using the large household data sets constructed by the National Sample Survey for 1993 and 2004. The treatment-effects model is used to take account of sample selection bias in evaluating the effects of RPW in 1993 or FFW in 2004 on poverty. We have found significant and negative effects of participation in RPW and the Food for Work Programme on poverty, undernutrition (e.g. protein) and vulnerability in 1993 and 2004.     

Viewpoint: Measuring the well‐being of the poor with income or consumption: a Canadian perspective

Abstract There is a long tradition of using consumption measures derived from Statistics Canada's household expenditures surveys to study material well‐being, inequality, and poverty. We offer an introduction to this research. Income and consumption measures give different pictures of the patterns of material well‐being in Canada, but the differences are not as large as in the US. We also provide a comparison to Meyer and Sullivan's results on data quality. Canadian expenditure surveys are of high quality. Unique aspects of these surveys (variation in quality control measures over time and the possibility of comparing to income tax data) provide important insights into the quality of survey data on income and consumption.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSECUTIVE SPELLS OF POVERTY: A PATH‐DEPENDENT INDEX OF LONGITUDINAL POVERTY

In this paper we propose a new index of individual poverty in the longitudinal perspective, taking into account the way poverty and non‐poverty spells follow one another along individual life courses. The Poverty Persistence Index (PPI) is based on all the pairwise distances between the waves of poverty. The PPI is normalized and it assigns a higher degree of (longitudinal) poverty to people who experience poverty in consecutive, rather than separated, periods, for whom the distances from the poverty line are larger along time and moreover, when the worst years are consecutive and/or recent. We also propose an aggregate index of persistence in poverty (APPI) in order to measure the distribution of the persistence of poverty in a society, and evaluate at once the diffusion of poverty, its depth, duration, and recentness. The indices are tested in comparison with other measures from the literature both at the individual as well as at the societal level.     

QUANTILE FORECASTS OF FINANCIAL RETURNS USING REALIZED GARCH MODELS*

This article applies the realized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which incorporates the GARCH model with realized volatility, to quantile forecasts of financial returns, such as Value‐at‐Risk and expected shortfall. Student's t‐ and skewed Student's t‐distributions as well as normal distribution are used for the return distribution. The main results for the S&P 500 stock index are: (i) the realized GARCH model with the skewed Student's t‐distribution performs better than that with the normal and Student's t‐distributions and the exponential GARCH model using the daily returns only; and (ii) using the realized kernel to take account of microstructure noise does not improve the performance.     

Social evaluations when populations differ in size

Assessments of “social welfare” do not usually take into account population sizes. This can lead to serious social evaluation flaws, particularly in contexts in which policies can affect demographic growth. We develop in this paper a little‐known though ethically attractive approach to correcting the flaws of traditional social evaluations, an approach that is sensitive to population sizes and that is based on critical‐level generalized utilitarianism (CLGU). Traditional CLGU is extended by considering arbitrary orders of welfare dominance and ranges of “poverty lines,” as well as values for the “critical level” of how much a life must be minimally worth to contribute to social welfare. We apply these social evaluation methods to rank Canada across 1976, 1986, 1996 and 2006 and to estimate normatively and statistically robust lower and upper bounds of critical levels over which these rankings can be made.     

Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? Evidence from the U.S.

We examine the stabilization role of the exchange rate in the U.S. economy using a factor augmented vector autoregression model. We find that exchange rate shock explains a large fraction of the variation in exchange rate and transmits major disturbances to the real economy. Further, we find that demand and supply shocks explain less than a quarter of the exchange rate movement. We provide robust evidence that although the exchange rate plays some role as a shock absorber, its role as an independent source of shocks is more dominant for the U.S. economy. The foreign exchange market breeds its own shocks which are destabilizing not only to the value of the dollar but to the overall economy as well. Our results suggest that policymakers need to take foreign exchange market fluctuations into account when making macroeconomic policy decisions.     

Imputing rent in consumption measures,with an application to consumption poverty in Canada, 1997–2009

We consider two econometric problems in the measurement of poverty, both relating to rent imputation. First, we account for quality differences correlated with selection into owner‐occupied versus rental tenure. This correction increases estimated household consumption by 5% over uncorrected estimates and decreases estimated poverty rates quite dramatically. Second, we propose that measurement error induced by the imputation be corrected by imputing a consumption distribution, rather than a consumption level, for each household. This correction increases estimated poverty rates slightly. We use our methods to measure consumption poverty in Canada, and find that the imputation strategy used influences the patterns observed. For example, measured poverty among the elderly barely declines when one uses our methods, in contrast to the almost 6 percentage point reduction we find using traditional methods. In our assessment of the over‐time evolution of consumption poverty, we find that substantial progress has been made on overall poverty and on child poverty, but that poverty among the elderly hardly changed.     

On the Effect of Skewness and Kurtosis Misspecification on the Hedging Error

Using a result in Angelini and Herzel (2009a) , we measure, in terms of variance, the cost of hedging a contingent claim when the hedging portfolio is re‐balanced at a discrete set of dates. We analyse the dependence of the variance of the hedging error on the skewness and kurtosis as modeled by a Normal Inverse Gaussian model. We consider two types of strategies, the standard Black–Scholes Delta strategy and the locally variance‐optimal strategy, and we perform some robustness tests. In particular, we investigate the effect of different types of model misspecification on the performance of the hedging, like that of hedging without taking skewness into account. Computations are performed using a Fast Fourier Transform approach.     

ON THE “PRO‐POORNESS” OF GROWTH IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT

This paper represents a first attempt to bring together the issues of multidimensional poverty and growth “pro‐poorness” assessments. More specifically, we suggest the use of sequential dominance procedures to test the “pro‐poorness” of observed growth spells when poverty is measured on the basis of income and another discrete well‐being attribute. Sequential procedures are also used to obtain graphical tools that are consistent with the spirit of Ravallion and Chen's growth incidence curve and Son's poverty growth curve. Contrary to traditional unidimensional tests, our method makes it possible to take into account the importance of deprivation correlations at the individual level and thus may reverse results observed with the traditional tools used to check the “pro‐poorness” of growth. An illustration of our approach is given using Turkish data for the period 2003–05.     

EQUITY-SENSITIVE INDICATORS OF LIVING STANDARDS WITH AN APPLICATION TO NORTHERN IRELAND

The level of a region's achievement with respect to a particular outcome is usually measured by the mean value of that outcome. This, however, ignores the fact that the distribution of that outcome, between population or geographical subgroups in that region, may be unequal: in order to reflect this inequality, ‘equity‐sensitive’ indicators make a downward adjustment to the mean value of the outcome. This paper extends the notion of ‘equity‐sensitive’ indicators which take cognisance of inter‐group inequality, to ‘equity‐sensitive’ indicators which paid heed to intra‐group inequality. It constructs – using data from a Northern Ireland survey into poverty and social exclusion conducted in 2002/2003 –‘equity‐sensitive indicators’ of living standards in Northern Ireland. These take account of both the average level of the standard of living and also inequality in these levels between groups, and between persons in these groups.     

Equity and policy effectiveness with imperfect targeting

We propose a general approach that jointly integrates horizontal and vertical equity criteria in the assessment of poverty alleviation programs, with the strength of each criterion being captured through its own inequity-aversion parameter. This contrasts with the assessment of poverty alleviation programs done with simple under-coverage and leakage ratios or with other methods that do not take into account the heterogeneity of the poor and that do not address directly the social benefits of achieving normative criteria. Our methodology is illustrated using Tunisian data and two alternative poverty alleviation policies. We find inter alia that the social ranking of commodity and socio-demographic targeting in Tunisia depends on the policymaker's comparative preference for vertical and horizontal equity.     

How might the negative impact of higher education on growth be explained? The role of vertical qualification (mis)match in an MRW‐type model

This study explores the impact of higher education on growth in 11 new EU members over the period 2000–2016 using an augmented MRW‐type model which takes into account the quality of education and vertical mismatch. More precisely, it tests whether the accelerating increase of college graduates causes an oversupply of educated labour which, in turn, extends the qualification mismatch and adversely affects growth of per capita income. We find that an increase of the most educated labour force does not per se lead to a higher growth rate. The impact of human capital becomes positive and statistically significant only if graduates with occupations requiring tertiary education are considered in the model. In addition, the econometric outcome implies that the extent of skill mismatch is determined primarily by the rising female population with college education and the gross value added of trade‐related services.     

Australian Poverty Quantified by a Family-Based Poverty Index*

We postulate a family-based poverty index (JD) possessing focus, symmetry, monotonicity and decomposability properties commonly required of individualistic indexes. JD also satisfies reformulated distribution and transfer sensitivity axioms which take account of differences between families in their sizes and poverty lines. We introduce a new axiom, substitution sensitivity, which is satisfied by JD but not by the well-known FGT index. Using JD, we describe Australian poverty in the 1980s. We find that head-count ratios and average income gaps dominate the explanation of differences in poverty across family types and across time. Differences in the distributions of poor incomes make minor contributions.     

A comparison of the poverty impact of transfers, taxes and market income across five OECD countries

This paper compares the poverty reduction impact of income sources, taxes and transfers across five OECD countries. Since the estimation of that impact can depend on the order in which the various income sources are introduced into the analysis, it is done by using the Shapley value. Estimates of the poverty reduction impact are presented in a normalized and unnormalized fashion, in order to take into account the total as well as the per dollar impacts. The methodology is applied to data from the Luxembourg Income Study database.     

Poverty and social exclusion: two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes?

There is growing interest in the analysis and measurement of social exclusion, to complement the static and dynamic literature on income poverty. On theoretical grounds, social exclusion and income poverty are seen as different processes, but with closely interrelated dynamics. However, our empirical understanding of the way these two processes dynamically interact at the individual level is still very limited. To shed some light on the issue, we use a dynamic bivariate probit model, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and Wooldridge (2005)-type initial conditions. Both the first- and second-order Markov dynamics are examined. We estimate the model using the Italian sample of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), waves 1–8, and find a sizable extent of state dependence in both poverty and social exclusion. Moreover, there are dynamic cross-effects implying that poverty and social exclusion are mutually reinforcing. Social policies aimed at eradicating poverty and avoiding individuals’ social and economic marginalization should take these interaction effects explicitly into account.     

THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF COOPERATORS IN THE N‐PERSON PRISONERS’ DILEMMA WITH RANDOM ORDER MOVES*

The present paper examines the possibility of cooperation occurring in the N‐person prisoners’ dilemma, played with randomly ordered moves and imperfect information. To take into account imperfect cooperation, the degree of cooperation is evaluated in terms of the expected number of cooperators. It is shown that: (i) the expected number of cooperators is maximized at an equilibrium, a combination of strategies each of which is a type of trigger strategy; (ii) the maximum expected number of cooperators is attained in a state of imperfect cooperation for a range of payoff functions; and (iii) the maximum expected number of cooperators is non‐decreasing when the size of players’ group increases.     

Payoff Assessments without Probabilities: A Simple Dynamic Model of Choice

We develop a model which reflects the tendency of people to simplify the decision problems they face. The decision maker chooses among alternate strategies only on the basis of the payoff she assesses she would obtain from them, and these assessments do not explicitly take into account her subjective judgements regarding the likelihood of alternate states of the world. At each stage, the decision maker chooses the strategy that she assesses to give the highest payoff. She updates her assessments adaptively. We show that such behavior leads to maxmin choices. We also consider the decision maker who experiences shocks. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, D8.     

Not by growth alone: The role of the distribution of income in regional diversity in poverty reduction

This study examines the role of the distribution of income in determining the responsiveness of poverty to income growth and changes in income inequality using panel data of 58 developing countries for the period 1980-1998. We show that the large cross-regional variation in the capacity of income growth to reduce poverty, i.e. the income elasticity, is largely explained by differences in the initial distribution of income and present region and time specific estimates of the income and Gini elasticities of poverty. We find that the income elasticity of poverty in the mid-1990s equals −1.31 on average and ranges from −0.71 for Sub-Saharan Africa to −2.27 for the Middle East and North Africa, and that the Gini elasticity of poverty equals 0.80 on average and ranges from 0.01 in South Asia to 1.73 in Latin America. Furthermore we show that while differing income growth rates account for most of the regional diversity in poverty trends, the additional impact of differences across regions in rates of inequality change and income and inequality elasticities of poverty is almost always significant and far too large to be ignored, most notably so in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.