Feeling Richer or Poorer than Others: A Cross‐section and Panel Analysis of Subjective Economic Status in Indonesia*

This paper examines what makes us feel richer or poorer than others. It investigates cross‐sectional and longitudinal determinants of individuals’ subjective economic status in Indonesia. Using two waves of Indonesian Family Life Surveys, 1997 and 2000, I show that individuals’ perceptions of where they are on the economic scale are more dependent on a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their attitudes towards their future economic status, than their current spending capacities would suggest. I also find significant, albeit weaker, expenditure and income effects on individuals’ subjective economic status once individual fixed effects are controlled for in the regression.     

Freedom and International Migration

Economic and political freedoms are regressed on a bilateral cross section of international migrant stocks using ordinary least squares and Tobit techniques. A positive relationship between these variables is found. Economic freedom is statistically significant even when controlling for income per capita and political freedom. In addition, the impact of these freedoms on migration flows into OECD countries between 2001 and 2006 using fixed effects estimations is analyzed. The panel data analysis mostly corroborates the cross‐sectional analysis. The notable exception is that political freedom appears to have had a negative impact on migration flows during this period.     

Child Access Prevention Laws and Nonfatal Gun Injuries

Many states have passed child access prevention (CAP) laws, which hold the gun owner responsible if a child gains access to a gun that is not securely stored. Previous research on CAP laws has focused exclusively on gun‐related deaths even though most gun injuries are not fatal. We use annual hospital discharge data to investigate whether CAP laws are associated with decreased nonfatal gun injuries. Results from Poisson regressions that control for various hospital, county, and state characteristics, including state‐specific fixed effects and time trends, indicate that CAP laws are associated with reductions in nonfatal gun injuries among children under age 18. Our results are bolstered by the absence of effects on other outcomes such as self‐inflicted gun injuries among adults and nongun self‐inflicted injuries.     

Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Crowding In or Crowding Out?

This paper investigates the possible crowding‐in or crowding‐out effect of public investment on private investment in sub‐Saharan Africa. While this relationship has been theoretically and empirically studied in the literature, most studies used traditional panel fixed effects or Generalized Method of Moments estimators which can potentially lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. We employ heterogeneous parameter models, including the Mean Group, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Model, and the Augmented Mean Group estimators, to incorporate the possibility of slope heterogeneity and the presence of cross‐sectional dependence. Using a large sample of 44 sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1960–2015, we find that on average public investment crowds in private investment in sub‐Saharan Africa. We also find that the impact differs between countries and is higher in countries with a strong private sector.     

Beyond Income: What Else Predicts Very Low Food Security Among Children?

We examine characteristics and correlates of households in the United States that are most likely to have children at risk of inadequate nutrition—those that report very low food security (VLFS) among their children. Using 11 years of the Current Population Survey, plus data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we describe these households in great detail with the goal of trying to understand how these households differ from households without such severe food insecurity. While household income certainly plays an important role in determining VLFS among children, we find that even after flexibly controlling for income‐to‐poverty rates some household characteristics and patterns of program participation have important additional explanatory power. Finally, our examination of the NHANES data suggests an important role for both mental and physical health of adults in the household in determining the food security status of children.     

Socioeconomic Determinants of Child Health: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This paper characterizes the socioeconomic determinants of child health using height‐for‐age z‐score (HAZ), a long‐run measure of chronic nutritional deficiency. We construct a panel data that follows children between ages 3 and 59 months in 1993 through the 1997 and 2000 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We use this data to identify the various child‐level, household‐level and community‐level factors that affect children's health. Our findings indicate that household income has a large and statistically significant role in explaining improvements in HAZ. We also find a strong positive association between parental height and HAZ. At the community level, we find that provision of electricity and the availability of paved roads are positively associated with improvements in HAZ. Finally, in comparison to community‐level factors, household‐level characteristics play a large role in explaining the variation in HAZ. These findings suggest that policies that address the demand‐side constraints have greater potential to improve children's health outcomes in the future.     

Reweighting South African National Household Survey Data to Create a Consistent Series Over Time: A Cross‐Entropy Estimation Approach

In the absence of established longitudinal panel surveys in South Africa, national cross‐sectional household survey data are frequently used to analyse change. When these data are stacked side by side, however, inconsistencies both in time trends and between household‐ and person‐level data are found. This study uses a new set of weights calibrated to the Actuarial Society of South Africa 2003 model projected totals using a cross‐entropy estimation approach. These weights are favoured because they produce consistent demographic and geographic trends. The calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) but match to a series of age‐sex‐race and province marginal totals that are consistent over time. The weights are publicly available for the 14‐year period between 1994 and 2007.     

HIV/AIDS and child malnutrition in eastern and southern Africa

HIV/AIDS and child malnutrition are pervasive in eastern and southern Africa. This paper employs cross‐country panel data on 20 countries from 1991 to 2017 to explore the macro‐level relationship between HIV/AIDS and child malnutrition. Using instrumental variables (IV) regression, we find that HIV/AIDS is a robust predictor of long‐term and chronic malnutrition. Conditional on various controls, the results demonstrate a positive empirical association between HIV/AIDS and stunting. Moreover, increased access to improved water, female education, and food availability are critical for reducing stunting. These findings underscore the need for an integrated national policy on nutrition and HIV/AIDS and intersectoral collaboration between government agencies responsible for managing nutrition and HIV/AIDS programs.     

Can Changing Economic Factors Explain the Rise in Obesity?

A growing literature examines the effects of economic variables on obesity, typically focusing on only one or a few factors at a time. We build a more comprehensive economic model of body weight, combining the 1990–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System with 27 state‐level variables related to general economic conditions, labor supply, and the monetary or time costs of calorie intake, physical activity, and cigarette smoking. Controlling for demographic characteristics and state and year fixed effects, changes in these economic variables collectively explain 37% of the rise in body mass index (BMI), 43% of the rise in obesity, and 59% of the rise in Class II/III obesity. Quantile regressions also point to large effects among the heaviest individuals, with half the rise in the 90th percentile of BMI explained by economic factors. Variables related to calorie intake—particularly restaurant and supercenter/warehouse club densities—are the primary drivers of the results.     

Understanding the Cyclical Nature of Financial Intermediation Costs

Intermediation costs (i.e., all noninterest bank expenses) are counter‐cyclical and their changes have significant effects at the country‐level; however, the literature is silent on what drives their cyclicality. Previous studies have examined costs using cross‐sectional or low frequency data and thus cannot capture dynamic macroeconomic effects across time. We fill this gap by examining U.S. intermediation costs using a quarterly, bank‐level dataset from 1993 through 2012. This data set allows for the separation of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the cyclicality of costs. The analysis shows that house prices are the main driving source of this counter‐cyclicality. Because housing is used as collateral, a price decline leads banks to increase their operating costs for monitoring, screening and litigation costs which cause a credit crunch in the economy.     

Maternal education and child health outcomes in South Africa: A panel data analysis

This study empirically assesses the relationship between mothers’ education and child health using continuous and binary proxies of child health outcomes. A panel, using four waves of the National Income Dynamic Study and a battery of estimation techniques, was employed. The results suggest that maternal education plays a large and significant role in explaining child health outcomes in South Africa. Our results also suggest that maternal education is relevant in respect to stunted growth (stunting). However, the effects of maternal education vary along races, implying levels of inequality. The effects are stronger in the black and coloured populations, possibly due to educational deficits. This suggests a need in improving the educational opportunities for these groups. We suggest that maternal education can significantly contribute to reducing the high degree of inequality in South Africa.     

Does Oil Wealth Affect Democracy in Africa?

This paper uses recent data on historical oil wealth to provide new evidence on the effect of oil wealth on democracy in Africa from 1955 to 2008. We find that oil wealth is statistically associated with a lower likelihood of democratization when we estimate the relationship in a pooled cross‐sectional and time‐series setting. In addition, when estimated using fixed effects and IV‐2SLS methods, the strong negative statistical association continues to hold. Indeed, this result is robust to the source of oil wealth data, the choice and treatment of the variables set, and the sample selection. Our results also show other interesting and important results. The cross‐country evidence examined in the study confirms that the ‘Lipset/Aristotle/modernization hypothesis’ (that prosperity stimulates democracy) is a strong empirical regularity. Also, the propensity for democracy rises with population size, population density, ethnic fractionalization, having British legal origin or colonial heritage, and having a supportive institutional environment in the form of maintenance of the rule of law. However, apart from oil wealth, democracy tends to fall with linguistic fractionalization and rough (mountainous) terrain. Moreover, consistent with the data, North Africa consistently fails to favor democratic development.     

Does board gender diversity matter in the banking sector? Evidence from Tunisia

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of board gender diversity on banks’ performance and risk for the case of a developing African country. Our sample includes a unique data set of Tunisian banks during the period 2005–2018. We use the two‐way cluster regression proposed by Petersen. This approach corrects for the unobserved firm effect (time‐series dependence) and time effect (cross‐sectional dependence). It gives robust standard errors adjusted for heteroscedasticity, serial correlation, and cross‐sectional correlation. Our results support a positive relationship between gender diversity and banks’ performance measured by ROA and ROE, while women board members are associated with more default risk measured by Z‐score. Our results remain robust to various measures of gender diversity, banks’ performance and risk. The findings contribute to the literature by providing empirical evidence from Tunisia, an African emerging economy, where the examination of the role of board gender diversity on bank governance is unexplored.     

Rethinking the impact of GDP on financial development: Evidence from heterogeneous panels

This paper examines the nonlinear impact of real GDP per capita on financial development in a panel of 125 countries. It also determines the moderating effect of inflation on the impact of GDP on financial development. It employs the dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the dynamic common correlated effects (CCE) to do both panel and country‐specific analysis, as well as control for cross‐sectional dependence, heterogeneity and endogeneity. This study shows that GDP has a positive impact on financial development in the entire panel. However, when we split the panel into different income groups, we find a positive impact in the high‐ and middle‐income groups while the impact is insignificant in the low income group. Although we find no evidence of a nonlinear impact of GDP on financial development in the panel, the country‐specific analysis reveals a significant nonlinear relationship between GDP and financial development in 73 countries. We also show that inflation adversely moderates the positive impact of GDP on financial development in middle‐income countries. This study implies that the relationship between GDP and financial development depends on the levels of GDP and inflation rate. We recommend some policy options based on the findings.     

An estimate of aggregate supply response in South African agriculture

Agricultural supply has traditionally been assumed to be relatively inelastic. Time series estimates have generally supported this hypothesis. Estimates based on cross‐sectional observations have generally yielded higher elasticities. It has been argued that cross‐sectional analyses are more appropriate than time series analyses for estimating long‐run elasticities. A cross‐sectional analysis was done on South African data. Quantity supplied was shown to be a function of output/input price ratios, land quality, average rainfall and time. The long‐run supply elasticity appears to be approximately 0,92. This has important implications for agricultural price policy. Policies based on the assumption of very low supply elasticities are likely to distort markets and production.     

CAPITAL MOBILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A PANEL DATA APPROACH

In this paper we are primarily concerned with assessing the degree of capital mobility in sub‐Saharan Africa. Using the methodology as proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980)—later termed the “Feldstein‐Horioka puzzle”—we test the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility against the alternative of imperfect capital mobility. Following Vamvakidis and Wacziarg (1998) and Isaksson (2000), provision is made in our model to show the dependency of the lesserdeveloped countries on international finance and aid and how a more open economy contributes towards improving the level of capital movement in these countries. We also assess the change in the degree of capital mobility over the time period in an effort to see whether institutional and political changes have been successful. We show that, compared to the region, South Africa is, to a large extent, more developed and should therefore play a leading role in the “African Renaissance”. Stationary panel data estimation techniques are applied to a sample of 36 sub‐Saharan African countries over the time period 1980–2000. The benefits of using one‐way error component models are derived from simultaneously employing time and cross‐section dimensions of the data, resulting in a substantial increase in the degrees of freedom. The fixed and random effects models enable us to acknowledge country heterogeneity within the panel, making provision for differences across countries like capital control policies, financial and capital market structures and exchange rate regimes.     

Estimating the Impact of Time-Invariant Variables on FDI with Fixed Effects

This paper applies the panel fixed effects with vector decomposition estimator to three FDI data sets to estimate the impact of time-invariant variables on FDI while including fixed effects. We find that the omission of fixed effects significantly biases the results, leading to contradictory predictions regarding the effect of trade costs and culture across data sets. After eliminating these biases, the differences across data sets largely disappear and many time-invariant variables consistently indicate the importance of vertical FDI. This suggests that some controversies in the literature may be driven by the extent to which unaccounted fixed effects biases vary across different data sets. JEL no.  F14, F23     

Measuring poverty with noisy and corrected estimates of annual consumption: Evidence from Nigeria

An opportunity to improve measurement and modelling of poverty in Africa arises from recent intra‐year panel surveys that observe household consumption in post‐planting and post‐harvest periods. Observing the same household twice lets an intra‐year correlation be estimated, which can be used to form a corrected estimate of annual consumption. The usual approach surveys consumption for just one short period, like a week or month, and extrapolates to an annual total. This may adequately estimate mean annual consumption for samples spread over a year but overstates dispersion. The resulting noise in consumption estimates inflates measures of poverty and inequality and creates misclassification errors that bias logit and probit models of poverty determinants. This study uses data from the 2012/2013 Nigeria General Household Survey panel to show effects on poverty measures of using annual estimates extrapolated from short‐period surveys. With the corrected extrapolation method that uses intra‐year correlations to adjust for inflated variances, Nigeria's poverty headcount rate falls by one half. Hence, much of the poverty measured in cross‐sectional surveys is transient poverty, for which different policy interventions are needed than for alleviating chronic poverty.     

The Impact of Self‐Perceived Relative Income on Life Satisfaction: Evidence from British Panel Data

This is the first article that uses panel data to investigate the impact of individuals' self‐perceived relative income on life satisfaction. Analyses show that the self‐perceived relative income has a significant impact on life satisfaction, but the impact is asymmetric. The decline in life satisfaction is much more significant due to perceiving a lower relative income in comparison to the rise in life satisfaction because of perceiving a higher relative income. Absolute income is only significantly and positively associated with life satisfaction in the pooled ordinary least squares estimations, but the association is never significantly different from zero when individual fixed effects are controlled. Household savings have a positive but small impact on life satisfaction. Among different financial‐related shocks, people's self‐perceived relative income varies the most due to changes in household net income, total savings, and employment status.