Local currency systemic risk

Emerging country governments increasingly issue local currency denominated bonds and foreign investors have been increasing their holdings of these assets. By issuing debt denominated in local currency, emerging country governments eliminate exchange rate risk. The growing stock of local currency government debt in the financial portfolios of foreign investors increases their diversification and exposure to fast growing economies. In this paper, we highlight some of the risks associated to this recent trend. First, we adopt the CoV aR risk-measure to estimate the vulnerability of individual countries to systemic risk in the market for local currency government debt. Second, we show that our country-level estimates of vulnerability increase with the share of local currency debt held by foreign investors. A version of the old adage “When New York sneezes, London catches a cold,” used often to describe the relationship between the stock markets in these two cities, still applies between individual emerging countries and the aggregate market for local currency government debt.     

Which firms do prefer Islamic debt? An analysis and evidence from global sukuk and bonds issuing firms

The Islamic debt instrument sukuk has been in the market for two decades; still, we do not know why a firm prefers an Islamic debt over conventional debt, set aside religiosity issue. We argue there is a genuine reason to choose Islamic debt because it has lighter indebtedness, benefits of avoiding external monitoring, and tax incentives. Based on the cross-country data for 346 firms issuing dollar-denominated global sukuk and bonds, we find that firms that prefer Islamic debt and issue sukuk are financially more unstable, and thus exposing to higher insolvency risk as compared to bond issuing firms.     

Foreign indebtedness and economic growth: The Philippines

Problems of indebtedness in developing countries are not isolated occurrences. The example of the Philippines, however, is for many reasons a most interesting one. On the one hand, borrowing already once culminated in a debt crisis at the end of the 60s. On the other, the Philippine foreign debt situation has deteriorated faster than that of other highly-indebted countries recently. This article sets out to analyse Philippine borrowing by using an econometric model against the background of the economic policies actually pursued. What are the prospects for the Philippines during the 80s?     

Devaluations and emerging stock market returns

Stock returns over the 2 years surrounding 24 currency devaluations are examined. Using bootstrapped distributions, returns preceding the devaluation are shown to be significantly below normal, in both dollar and local currency terms. Most of the downturn, however, occurs well before the month of the devaluation. Returns following a devaluation are normal. While industry and company specific effects appear to influence return behavior, only country effects and leverage levels are statistically significant. At the country level, both aggregate economic activity (GDP) and the size of the devaluation are important in explaining return behavior. The stock of foreign debt has little impact on returns. Finally, even though returns appear to anticipate devaluations, they are not statistically significant at predicting the size of the devaluation.     

地方政府债务对工业资本配置效率的非线性影响效应——基于动态面板平滑转换回归PSTR模型的检验

经济新常态下,提高工业资本等要素配置效率是实现经济向高质量增长转变的必然要求。本文在政府主导、投资驱动的工业发展模式下,结合地方债务压力和金融发展差异门限变量,在非线性框架下运用动态面板平滑转换回归模型实证检验地方债务规模与工业资本配置效率的渐进演变关系。研究发现,适度的地方债务规模有助于提高资本配置效率,但随着债务压力增加,举债对资本配置的正效应逐步减弱并产生负效应。究其原因,适度举债能补齐工业基础设施短板,压低土地成本,对工业发展产生杠杆效应,从而提高资本配置效率;但过度举债推升财政风险,占用信贷资源并强化企业融资约束,造成资本配置低效率。此外,研究发现,地方信贷规模提升,能缓解举债的融资约束,促进工业行业间的资本流动;而工业金融深化程度提高,能增强市场竞争机制在要素配置中的作用,缓解举债造成投资错配,从而增强资本配置效率。以上分析结果表明,地方政府举债应更理性、适度、规范。     

Emerging market hedge funds and the yen carry trade

For emerging market hedge funds, funding through the yen carry trade provides the possibility of enhancing returns by funding in a low coupon currency. This study examines whether emerging market hedge funds are exposed to the value of the Japanese yen and whether this is the key exposure associated with their use of leverage. The results suggest that the returns of these hedge funds are only weakly exposed to yen exchange rate but the use of leverage is associated with yen exposure, which implicates the importance of the yen carry trade.     

浅谈现代饭店业外汇风险管理

我国加入WTO后,旅游事业呈现了蓬勃发展势头。良好的经济形势在给饭店业带来无限商机的同时也带来了外汇收支管理等问题。尤其是现代饭店业面临着外汇交易、外汇借款、汇率折算等风险。应全面掌握国际市场主要货币汇率、收支状况,正确选择外币币种,适当调整商品价格,采用外汇保值条款等手段加强饭店业外汇管理,减少外汇风险,提高饭店经济效益。     

RISK‐AVERSION,OPTIMAL LEVERAGE AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATION

We develop a partial equilibrium dynamic model in which firms are risk‐averse. We analyse the determinants of the investment–uncertainty relationship by means of numerical techniques. When firms can borrow ‘outside’ resources at the riskless rate, an increase in price volatility depresses investment for realistic parameter values. In our model, portfolio considerations play an important role. When the marginal revenue of capital becomes more uncertain, the risk‐averse firm's owners reduce their ‘short position’ in the risk‐free asset, thus diminishing the firm's debt level. The contraction in leverage reduces the expected returns on investment because the expected marginal revenue product is higher than the user cost of capital. In turn, the reduction in expected yields tends to depress investment.     

FX Market Returns and Their Relationship to Investor Fear

This note examines the relationship between changes in levels of investor fear (measured by the implied volatility index) and foreign exchange market returns. Our empirical results indicate a negative relationship between daily returns on high‐interest rate (investing) currencies and changes in the implied volatility index, while the association is positive for low‐interest rate (funding) currencies. That is, investing (funding) currencies tends to depreciate (appreciate) when investor fear increases. A sequential breakpoint test identifies a significant change in this relationship in the period following the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, and another in 2012 following the resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis, which suggests that the relationship is linked to financial system liquidity. During the crisis period, currency returns are much more sensitive to changes in investor fear, and this is particularly so for funding currencies that are perceived to present a safe‐haven. The results have important implications for international finance, and those looking to speculate via the carry trade.     

Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile

By studying the behavior of foreign currency borrowing, maturity, sales and the investment decisions of firms listed in the Chilean Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2001, this paper assesses whether in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s the depreciation of the local currency (Chilean peso) affected these firms’ real and financial decisions. At issue is the contrast between a negative net-worth effect and a potential expansionary competitiveness effect for the tradable sector. We find that there exists little evidence that devaluations cause a positive impact on investment and sales for firms with dollar denominated debt. The maturity structure of Chilean firms is mainly explained by the size of the companies. Large firms will have a debt structure biased to higher maturities. Analyzing dollar denominated debt composition the evidence shows that larger firms maintained a higher proportion of dollar denominated debt reflecting the development of the financial sector in Chile.     

我国城镇化融资机制创新研究

目前,我国在城镇化建设中存在投资主体和融资方式单一、融资渠道不畅、相关政策制度不完善等因素,未来我国城镇化建设存在巨额的资金缺口。应以创新城镇化融资机制为突破口,改变单一的融资方式,正确界定政府与市场的关系,鼓励和引导民间资本进入城市基础设施建设和公共服务领域,加快推进财政金融体制改革,规范地方融资平台,强化地方政府债务约束机制,促使新型城镇化与工业化、农业现代化、信息化同步协调推进,有效释放巨大的内需潜力。     

Decentralized borrowing and centralized default

In the past, foreign borrowing by developing countries was comprised almost entirely of government borrowing. However, private firms and individuals in developing countries now borrow substantially from foreign lenders. It is often asserted that this surge in private sector borrowing generates excessive borrowing and frequent sovereign defaults in developing countries. This paper analyzes the impact of decentralized borrowing using a quantitative model in which private agents decide how much to borrow and the government decides whether to default. Relative to a model in which the government determines both the level of borrowing and whether to default, decentralized borrowing drives up aggregate credit costs and sovereign default risk, and reduces aggregate welfare. Interestingly, decentralized borrowing may lead to either too much or too little debt in equilibrium depending on the severity of default penalties.     

Currency risk and microcredit interest rates

Foreign currency debt provides additional access to capital and offers funds in favorable and flexible terms to microfinance institutions (MFIs). Yet, we find that the use of foreign currency debt, on average, leads to higher microcredit interest rates. We also find that MFIs operating in countries with pegged exchange rate regimes and profit MFIs are better able to mitigate foreign currency risk. The results of the paper suggest that local currency debt is a better option for MFIs if the goal is to provide microcredit at lower interest rates.     

Note: Dealing with Iraq’s foreign indebtedness

Iraq now faces a growing economic crisis, which is impoverishing the country and threatening its basic social fabric. The crisis is partly the result of decades of mismanagement on the part of the Iraqi government. It is also the result of massive overspending and foreign borrowing during the Iran–Iraq War and the Gulf War. This article investigates Iraq’s debt crisis and attempts to devise a pragmatic debt‐management strategy, which could pos‐sibly lead to solving this acute problem. The four‐pillar strategy introduced here, if well implemented, would not only obliterate the debt, but could more importantly set the scene for Iraq’s return to its place in the international community with a renewed political and economic stability. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Contingent Capital,Real Options,and Agency Costs

This paper aims to clarify how contingent convertible bond (CoCo) as a debt financing instrument affects a firm's investment policy, agency cost of debt, and capital structure. We consider endogenous and exogenous conversion thresholds, respectively. Under the exogenous case, there is an explicit optimal fraction of equity allocated to CoCo holders upon conversion, such that the agency cost reaches zero. Numerical analysis demonstrates that under an endogenous conversion threshold, CoCo induces overinvestment, a higher leverage, a possible bigger agency cost, and a stronger incentive to increase risk. But if the conversion threshold is exogenously determined, almost the opposite holds true.     

Mass incarceration and consumer financial harm: Critique of rent-seeking by the carceral state

Mass incarceration is an approach to managing public safety that emphasizes detention over other means. It is also neoliberalism's quintessential political and economic project because it mobilizes a prison industrial complex to generate revenue. We highlight rent-seeking, the pursuit of extra-budgetary revenues by carceral agencies, because it inflicts financial harm on incarcerated consumers and their supporters. Carceral agencies leverage government's authority to set the conditions of detention. However, when they also leverage government's market-making authority to seek rents from incarcerated persons we characterize that as a government failure. To understand it, we depart from a focus on corruption by specific actors to highlight features of institutions that enable unethical behavior. We join activists and elected officials who call for an end to mass incarceration, but we also highlight more immediate reforms that can help restrain rent-seeking and enable greater public scrutiny of the carceral state.     

Housing boom,real estate diversification,and capital structure: Evidence from China

By exploiting the unique situation in China that numbers of listed firms diversified into the real estate industry during the recent housing boom period, we find that firms' real estate diversification positively influences their subsequent leverage ratios. Further investigations suggest that such an increase in leverage mainly comes from short-term debt instead of long-term debt. We also find that housing price growth and state ownership are underlying mechanisms through which real estate diversification stimulates leverage. Last, we find that firms with real estate diversification enjoy less financing cost deterioration and less market value deterioration when they raise more debt.     

区域经济对高校融资渠道创新的影响

随着我国科教兴国和人才强国战略的实施，高等教育在经济社会发展中的地位愈来愈突出，对区域经济的影响尤甚。同样区域经济的发展也对高校的融资产生了巨大的影响。目前国家财政对高等教育经费投入相对不足，高校融资渠道狭窄以及高校内外管理约束机制的缺失等是造成高校债务危机的主要原因，教育的融资应该通过建立政策性银行，发展高校科技企业融资，教育基金融资以及海内外民间融资，融资租赁等多元化渠道解决。     

Environmental,Social, and Governance (ESG) Profiles,Stock Returns,and Financial Policy: Australian Evidence

This study investigates the independent effects of environmental (E), social (S), corporate governance (G), and the composite ESG ratings on stock returns and corporate financing decisions of the largest stocks in the Australian equity market. Firms with high composite ESG ratings tend to increase their leverage. For the individual ratings, we find different inferences: firms with low E and high G ratings tend to raise less debt. Firms with high G ratings hold less cash, while those with low G ratings have lower dividend payouts. S ratings have no impact on corporate financing decisions. There appears to be no significant difference in risk‐adjusted returns for portfolios based on ESG ratings, effectively indicating that there is no cost of ESG investment.     

Effects of Foreign Institutional Ownership on Foreign Bank Lending: Some Evidence for Emerging Markets

Despite the large literature on developed countries, little is known about the interactions between corporate governance, foreign ownership, and foreign bank lending in developing countries. Using data from five Latin American countries from 2001 to 2008, we provide one of the first pieces of evidence of how foreign ownership affects the loan cost of borrowers in emerging markets. We find that in terms of foreign bank lending, the cost of debt financing is significantly higher for firms whose largest shareholder is a foreign institutional one. The results support the hypothesis that because of potential agency conflicts between shareholders and creditors, having block institutional shareholders tend to increase the borrowers’ debt burden. There is further evidence supporting this agency conflict hypothesis as we find that the effects of large institutional shareholders on borrowing costs become larger (smaller) when the conflicts are aggravated (mitigated).