Teaching Preparation and Placement in “Non‐top‐tier” Ph.D. Programs

In a recent article, Jacobson (2015) provides an invaluable economics job market guide for economics Ph.D. candidates from “non‐top‐tier” programs in the United States. Her treatment is detailed and, to a large extent, thorough. However, Jacobson fails to discuss the development of effective lead teaching experience in graduate school as a (potentially central) aspect of job market preparation. In the present comment, we develop and summarize a job posting and placement data set that focuses on Ph.D. candidates from non‐top‐tier programs. The data strongly suggests that the development of lead teaching experience in graduate school, rather than an optional line on one's vita, is an often pivotal element of realized job placement for Ph.D. candidates of non‐top‐tier programs. These findings corroborate with List's (2000) finding that, “a candidate's teaching portfolio was highly influential in the academic market” (p. 197). We also discuss the acquisition of lead teaching experience and benefits of early teaching experience that may extend beyond first job placement.     

China's Foreign Trade: A “New Normal”

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China's foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a “normal” foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.     

“Exports‐at‐Risk”: The Effect of Multimarket Contact in International Trade

Despite a well‐established literature examining possible impacts on competition in oligopolistic markets from multimarket contact (MMC) among diversified firms, only recently have trade theorists considered the possible effects of MMC among exporters in limiting the anticipated procompetitive role of imports. This article presents a first effort to test the empirical importance of a measure of this MMC, called “exports‐at‐risk,” on import prices (unit‐values). Suggestive evidence of anticompetitive impacts of MMC among exporters is obtained for highly traded four‐digit harmonized system (HS) products within the broad category of “fats and oils.” Exporters in fats and oils seem to price higher in markets where they meet rivals with the ability to retaliate against their “exports at risk.”     

Interest Groups and the “Rise and Decline” of Growth

Interest groups are known to exert a sclerotic impact on mean growth, à la 1982 . It is unknown, however, what impact (if any) groups exert on the volatility of growth—an important hindrance to development. In this article, we first consider what impact we should expect Olson groups to have on the volatility of growth. We then estimate the relation between groups and growth volatility in a cross‐country panel, using system generalized method of moments. The findings indicate that groups are associated with growth stability. In addition, the findings suggest that interest groups may be a source of the stability observed in democracies.     

Exchange-rate volatility, trade and “fixing for life” in Thailand

At the outset of the 1997 financial crisis, the quest to find a more suitable exchange-rate policy has become an urgent task facing the East Asian economies. One of the key policies agreed under Thailand’s August 1997 Letter of Intent (LOI) with the IMF was the adoption of a more flexible exchange-rate policy. However, the country re-adopted its pre-1997 crisis rigid exchange-rate policy in early 1999. To grasp this “fixing for your life” phenomenon, we test the impact of the exchange-rate volatilities of Thailand’s baht against the yen and the US dollar on the performance of the country’s bilateral trades with the two key partners.     

Changing Comparative Advantage,Real Exchange Rate Impact and Sino–Japanese Trade Fluctuations

China, as an important source country in the global value chain, especially in the East Asian production networks, has exerted significant influence on Sino–Japanese trade fluctuations. This paper explores the real factors that lead to the fluctuations in Sino–Japanese trade. Using the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique and OECD–WTO Statistics on Trade in Value Added from 1995 to 2011, the impact of the changing comparative advantage between the two countries is also examined. The empirical results indicate that determinants of the fluctuations in Sino–Japapese trade include changing comparative advantages, the volatility of the real exchange rate and quite a few external shocks. Some policy suggestions are put forward in regards to the stability of trade between the two countries.     

External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low‐Income Countries

According to the well‐known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low‐income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low‐income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low‐income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low‐income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low‐income country and sample industrialized country.     

Testing the “Inverted‐U” Phenomenon in Moral Development on Recently Promoted Senior Managers and Partners*

This paper examines the change in the average level of moral development over a 7.5‐year period of promotion, attrition, and survival in five Big 6 firms. The study improves upon previous cross‐sectional studies that found decreases in the average level of moral development at the senior manager and partner levels, which has been referred to as the “inverted‐U” phenomenon. Problems with these studies that limit the generalizability of their findings include their cross‐sectional nature and samples that usually come from one or two firms. Over a 7.5‐year period, we found that the participating Big 6 firms retained auditors with higher average levels of moral development (measured using the defining issues test), while those with lower average levels left the firms. The average level of moral development for new partners was at least as high as the group from which they came. This research suggests that the concern about Big 6 firms retaining a higher proportion of auditors with lower moral development may be an artifact of research design.     

Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets

The disposition effect describes the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value since purchase, and hold those that have not. We analyze the introduction of betting market “Cash‐Outs,” which provide a continual update—and therefore increase the salience—of bettors' paper profits/losses on each bet. We find that the introduction of Cash‐Out increased the disposition effect in this market, as punters sold their profitable bets with greater frequency than before. We do not, however, find that the disposition effect has any impact on asset prices, either before or after this intervention.     

Non‐Residential Capital Stock in Latin America, 1875–2008: New Estimates and International Comparisons

We use a homogeneous method to estimate non‐residential capital stock for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Our estimates extend back to the late‐nineteenth century, 50 years earlier than the present available estimates. Our estimates use the gross fixed capital formation data base (1850–1950). These data are linked with existing standardised national accounts for the region, such as those of Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Finally, we compare investment in Latin American countries to that of advanced economies, particularly focussing on the performance of two settler countries, Argentina and Australia.     

The “flying geese” model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications

This paper presents a comprehensive review of the “flying geese” (FG) model, which recently has become well known as a way of explaining rapid economic growth in East Asia. Kaname Akamatsu’s 1930s work introduced the concept. Through statistical analysis of industrial development in pre-war Japan, this author followed Akamatsu in developing a theoretical model called Kojima Model I. Subsequent works produced Kojima Models II and III.The regional transmission of FG industrialization has been noted as an engine of Asian economic growth, due in part to Saburo Okita’s forceful presentation of the theme of the FG model in a 1985 lecture. It is hoped that this paper will help to advance a better understanding of the FG model, its historical origin, its theoretical extensions, and its relevancy, as well as its incompleteness as a model of economic development.     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.     

Trade,the Staple Theory of Growth,and Fluctuations in Colonial Singapore, 1900–39

Our paper enquires into the nexus between trade, growth, and fluctuations in the British colony of Singapore during the early twentieth century. Hitherto, little quantitative economic history has been written on this great entrepôt of Southeast Asia due to a lack of data. We overcome this limitation by utilising the gross domestic product series recently constructed for the pre‐war period by Sugimoto. This comprehensive data set enables us to explore the relevance and applicability of the staple theory of export‐led growth to colonial Singapore through cliometric analyses. The results suggest that foreign trade had acted both as an engine of growth and a source of economic instability.