Using complex networks analysis to assess the evolution of international economic integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America

This paper exploits recently-developed indicators based on network analysis to investigate the pattern of international integration followed by East Asian countries and compares it with the Latin American performance. Standard trade openness indicators fall short of portraying the peculiarity of the Asian experience, and of explaining why other emerging markets with similar characteristics have been less successful over the last 25 years. The analysis offers an alternative perspective on the issue regarding international economic integration by taking into account the whole structure of international trade relationships and by determining both the position of countries in the world trade network, and its evolution over time. We find that East Asian countries are more integrated into the world economy, as they have moved from the periphery of the network towards its core. Our results support the idea that the degree of openness matters but it is not enough to characterize economic integration. The number and identity of trade partners, and the specific individual structure of trade for each country, need to be incorporated in order to fully characterize international economic integration. By doing so, it is possible to argue that the integration process of the East Asian countries mirrors their high economic performance, while the lower degree of integration of Latin America can be related to the lack of economic development of the region, even though their degree of openness has increased.     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Beginning in the mid-1980s the primary development paradigm pursued by Latin American and Caribbean countries undertook a major shift from the concept of import-substitution-industrialization (ISI) to that of export-led growth and openness to international markets. Despite these efforts, virtually no research has been undertaken to assess the degree to which the export structures of Latin American and Caribbean countries have in fact diversified. This is unfortunate as the trade policy environment facing these countries is poised to undergo significant changes. The purpose of this article is to examine the structure of exports to the United States from 19 selected Latin American and Caribbean countries over the 1989 to 2000 period to assess the degree to which export diversification has occurred. The analysis is conducted at a reasonably disaggregate level using 2-digit HTS data. The countries included in the analysis provide a very interesting mix of commonalities and differences. The results suggest wide differences in the degree of diversification exhibited and suggest that these differences are related to economic size and social capability.     

Market Integration and Technological Change

This paper studies the incentives of firms to introduce new technologies in markets where network effects are sensitive to the identity of the adopter. We model this sensitivity by considering a market in which consumers are located in two economies and network effects across economies are weaker than intra-economy network effects. The strength of cross economy network effects is measured by the degree of market integration. We show that the incentives for technological change are decreasing with respect to the degree of integration and that they are in excess of what is socially desirable. We also show that different generation technologies can coexist only if the market is poorly integrated and that this coexistence is characterized by a form of technological leap-frogging across economies.     

Brazil and Mexico—Partners in sowing a free trade area of the Americas

The second half of 2000 brought renewed interest to the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). This hemispheric economic integration initiative presents numerous opportunities and challenges for each of the 34 countries involved in unifying markets across the Americas. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Mercosur, the region's two largest trading blocs, play a vital role in any attempt to integrate Latin American markets. Integration under Mercosur has strengthened the position of member countries—especially Brazil, which is a choice location for foreign direct investment and has realized a significant growth in extra‐Mercosur trade. The newly elected Mexican president, Vicente Fox, has demonstrated a strong desire to bring Mexico to the forefront of hemispheric trade negotiations and brings a new dynamic to integration of Latin American markets and to the FTAA initiative. This article elaborates on the role of the two largest Latin American economies and the United States in the creation and solidification of a hemispheric trading bloc in the Americas. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Labour market characteristics and surviving import shocks

This paper investigates whether different labour market characteristics amplify or dampen the local labour market impacts from Chinese import competition exposure. I exploit state‐level variation in initial, pre‐shock labour market characteristics and regional variation across local labour markets in exposure to Chinese imports for identification. I find that local labour markets in states with higher union density experience more severe adverse consequences as a result of increased import exposure. Conversely, higher initial minimum wages help mute the negative impacts of the China shock. I also provide some evidence that exceptions to employment‐at‐will legislation can affect employment responses to increased Chinese imports. Finally, examining all policies together in an index, I show that higher levels of policies intended to benefit and protect workers can actually magnify the extent of the damage inflicted by import competition. My results suggest that initial labour market characteristics and policies can play an important role in understanding why local labour markets react differently to trade shocks.     

Organized labour in the borderless world: globalization,deregulation and union strategy in Australia

Recent Australian federal governments have responded to broadening global markets and expanding international trade with policies of deregulation, labour market reform and industrial relations decentralization. This has thrown up major challenges for unions across the board, but the differential impacts of policy on different parts of industry and the labour market mean that the challenges facing different unions are likely to vary significantly. Using data from our 1996 Australian National Trade Union Survey, we investigate the degree to which particular rypes of unions favour specific strategic orientations. We find systematic differences between blue-collar and production industry unions on one hand, and white-collar and service industry unions on the other. On this basis, we make inferences about the likely future of Australian unions.     

The Global Economic Crisis and The Effect of Immigrant Workers on Native‐born Employment in Europe

The debate regarding the economic effects of employing immigrants has attracted renewed interest in European countries since the economic crisis. We provide an approximation of the labour market effects of immigrant workers in four European countries during the global economic crisis after briefly analysing native and foreign‐born worker conditions for the most recent period. Our analysis focuses on the correlation between the stock of immigrant workers and the number of native labour market workers across several segments of the labour market using a simple model approach. Using Eurostat and LFS (Labour Force Survey) data, we estimate a structural dynamic model using the generalised method of moments (GMM) to examine adjustment dynamics in the labour market and labour market segment and worker educational levels, countries of origin and genders. Overall, the empirical results suggest that immigrant labour force effects on native‐born worker employment rates have been persistent and but weak throughout the business cycle. These effects are globally positive, and immigrant origins do not appear to change the nature of their impact. We offer some explanations for these findings related to dual labour markets and to differences in levels of substitution among native and immigrant workers.     

Do Labour Strategies Matter? An Analysis of Two Enterprise-Level Data Sets in China

This paper examines the effect of labour strategies and management types on firm performance in Chinese enterprises. We use two large panel surveys on Chinese enterprises, spanning almost two decades of transition. Our findings suggest that, as commonly thought, there are significant differences across ownership types in China in the degree to which flexible labour market strategies are utilized; and more flexible strategies (such as bonus-reward systems) do seem to significantly enhance performance. However, after controlling for different degrees of labour market flexibility, ownership differences have little influence on enterprise performance (with the exception that foreign joint ventures clearly outperform other types in growth and labour productivity). This important result suggests that the impact of Chinese ownership types on performance is felt through cost-impacts rather than via direct differences in competitive behaviour or the goals of enterprise decision-makers.     

Does Latin America Comprise Transnational ‘Subregions’?

We live in a world of nations, but also one of multi‐nation systems. These systems, or transnational regions, affect global economics, politics and diplomacy. Latin America is a widely recognised and documented transnational region. It contains subregional nation systems that might have all of the characteristics and significance of regions and might also affect the broader integration of Latin America. The author defines regionality on the basis of economic integration and measures it with two methods for Latin America, North America, three Latin American subregional systems and one arbitrarily defined nation system within Latin America. He finds a high degree of integration in Latin America, the Andean nations and the Southern Cone of South America. He finds only a modest degree of integration in North America and not significantly greater integration in South America than in Latin America. The division of Latin America into subregions is consistent with the incidence of sub‐regional trade initiatives in the past two decades and might be at least partly responsible for the limited progress to date towards Latin America‐wide integration. Latin American subregions might now be providing a foundation on which to build regionalism in the future.     

Mexico's integration into the North American capital market

We explore a model of time varying regional market integration that includes three factors for the North American equity market, the local Mexican equity market and the peso/dollar exchange rate. We argue that a useful instrument for the degree of integration is the sovereign yield spread. Applying our methodology to Mexico over the 1991–2002 period, we show that the degree of market integration was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning but that it exhibited wide swings that were related to both global as well as local events. We also discover that Mexico's currency risk is priced. Further, the currency returns process reveals strongly significant asymmetric volatility that is strongly related to the asymmetric volatility of the Mexican equity market returns process. A plausible reason for these results is that currency devaluations in emerging markets like Mexico can cause default-risk crises in local banking systems that mismatch local-currency assets and hard currency liabilities, whereas appreciations produce no such problems. Devaluations that destabilize banking systems are, therefore, more likely than appreciations to increase the volatilities of both the currency's and the equity market's returns.     

The Effects of Market Makers and Stock Analysts in Emerging Markets

We exploit a quasi‐experiment to examine the effects of market makers and stock analysts in three emerging stock markets. We find substantial differences in the effects across markets, and in contrast to existing literature, the effects of market makers are not always positive. Our results suggest that the structure of market makers' agreements and compensation matters for their effects on market quality. Stock analysts, on balance, have marginally positive effects on liquidity and informational efficiency. The benefits of market makers are weaker in the presence of stock analysts, and vice versa, suggesting that market makers and stock analysts are more like substitutes than complements in their effects on market quality.     

Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages

The identification of periods of price exuberance in equity markets is of great interest to policy makers and financial investors. In this paper, we identify financial bubble periods within the major equity markets in Latin America. We use the recently developed recursive Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods and propose similar recursive procedures based on Phillips-Perron. We find that conditional on bubbles in the S&P 500, there are strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets in Latin America. In addition, the financial bubble periods in Latin America begin earlier and last longer than bubble periods in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis. Price bubbles were identified prior to the establishment of the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA).     

Measuring transparency and disclosure at firm-level in emerging markets

Transparency and disclosure are integral to corporate governance. In this paper, we use a new dataset to analyze Transparency & Disclosure scores (T&D score) in 19 emerging markets for 354 firms representing 70% of S&P/IFCI Index market capitalization over the 3 years ending in 2000. We analyze differences across countries, economic sectors and trend over the 3 years. We find that the Asian emerging markets and South Africa have significantly higher transparency and disclosure compared to the Latin American, Eastern European, and Middle Eastern emerging markets. The gap between the Asian emerging markets and South Africa over other emerging markets has increased over the last 3 years. We do not find any significant differences in T&D scores among economic sectors. Changes in the T&D scores over the last 3 years, however, differ by economic sectors for the 6 markets with the largest investable market capitalization and/or number of observations, viz. Brazil, Poland, South Africa, India, Thailand, and Korea. We then study the relationships between T&D scores and cross-holdings for the 6 emerging markets. For the 6 markets except Korea, correlation between cross-holdings and T&D scores is negative. For the 6 markets except South Africa, correlation between price-to-book ratios and T&D scores is positive. We conclude with a discussion on further research.     

Efficiency Sorting Among Foreign Affiliates: Evidence From China

This paper uses a large micro‐level data set to investigate the efficiency sorting pattern of foreign affiliates serving different markets. We find systematic differences among the attributes of foreign affiliates serving the local and overseas markets. Affiliates serving only the host country market are the most productive, the most capitalintensive and the most skill‐intensive. Affiliates serving only the international market are the most unskilled and labour‐intensive, the least efficient, pay the lowest wages and invest least in innovation and advertising. Affiliates serving both markets offer high wages and invest most in innovation and advertising. The results also suggest that the most productive affiliates choose to serve the host country market, whereas the least efficient affiliates target the international market.     

Power arch modelling of the volatility of emerging equity markets

In developed equity markets the APARCH model of Ding, Granger and Engle [Ding, Z., Granger, C. and Engle, R., 1993. A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model. Journal of Empirical Finance 1, 83–106] has proven to be useful in modelling the leverage and asymmetry effects; power transformations and long memory; and non-normal conditional error distributions that characterise the data. Extending the analysis of Jayasuriya, Shambora and Rossiter [Jayasuriya, S., Shambora, W. and Rossiter, R., 2005. Asymmetric volatility in mature and emerging markets, Working Paper, Ohio University.] to a wider set of emerging markets this paper explores the applicability of the model to emerging markets. The key findings are as follows. First, unlike developed markets where a power term of unity and a conditional standard deviation model appears to be appropriate, emerging markets demonstrate a considerably greater range of power values. Second, unlike developed markets where non-normal conditional error distributions appear to fit the data well, there are a set of emerging markets for which estimation problems arise with a conditional t distribution, and a conditional normal distribution appears to be the preferred option. Third, the degree of volatility asymmetry appears to vary across the set of emerging markets, with the Middle Eastern and African markets having very different volatility asymmetry characteristics to those of the Latin American markets.     

EU enlargement and labour demand in the new member states

Research to date on labour market responses to EU integration has tended to concentrate on the labour markets of the “old” EU members. But what effect has the integration of trade had on wages in the new member states? The following article attempts to answer this question using an empirical model of conditional sectoral labour demand.     

Relationship-Oriented Cultures, Corruption, and International Marketing Success

This study explores the general problems associated with marketing across international markets and focuses specifically on the role of corruption in deterring international marketing success. The authors do this by introducing a broader conceptualization of corruption. The dimensions of corruption and their importance in explaining the exporters’ successes in international markets are developed empirically. Partial Least Squares formative indicators are used in a comprehensive model including consumer resources (wealth and information resources), physical distance (kilometers and time zones), and cultural distance (linguistic and values differences) as alternative explanatory variables. Finally, differences in the model’s performance across data from three exporting countries (France, Japan, and the US) are delineated and discussed. For example, the successes of French and Japanese exporters in international markets are in part determined by the levels of corruption in target countries. Alternatively, corruption in target countries does not appear to affect the successes of American exporters in global markets. The conceptualization of corruption in this study extends the more narrow view of corruption solely as bribery.     

A paradox of price–quality and market efficiency: a comparative study of the US and China markets

The price–quality schema rests on an assumption that price is credible information about product quality. However, the credibility of price information varies across different markets. In an inefficient market, consumers would believe in the price–quality relationship to a lesser extent because price information is less credible. Paradoxically, in such a market, sometimes consumers have to rely more on price to infer quality because other product information is less available. With a cross-national perspective, this study investigated the influences of market efficiency and consumer risk aversion on the price–quality schema between the China and the US markets. We found that due to the inefficient market environment, Chinese consumers possess a weaker price–quality schema than American consumers. Chinese consumers are more risk averse than their American counterparts. However, in China, risk-averse consumers are more likely to use price to infer product quality. Implications for global marketing are discussed, and directions for future research are suggested.     

International competition in Latin American telecommunications markets

Current market liberalization and reforms in Latin America are attracting a great deal of interest by global telecommunications companies and investors. This article focuses on recent liberalizations and reforms in the telecommunications markets of Chile, Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela. The article reviews the winning bids for these markets 'and analyzes the strategic alliances of investors, global telecommunications companies, and local investors. The article concludes with an analysis of the experience to date in opening Latin American telecommunication markets to free competition and speculates on future developments in this sector. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Measuring financial market integration in the European Union: EU15 vs. New Member States

This paper quantifies financial market integration in the European Union, using a large array of credit and bond market indicators, stock market indicators, as well as indicators based on household and firm decisions. It focuses on comparing the evolution of the European Union before the Eastern enlargement (EU15) with that of the 12 New Member States (NMS) that joined after 2000. It documents improvements in the integration of the credit and bond markets as well as stock markets for both groups within the EU27, the heightened heterogeneity brought about by the NMS, but also a reversal of the integration process over the recent years (corresponding to the financial crisis), divergence disrupting both the EU15 core and the NMS. For all the decades of achievements within both the EU15 and NMS groups in terms of credit and stock market integration, the ultimate goals of financial market integration, perfect capital mobility and full international risk sharing remain out of reach.