Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy

This paper examines the implications of different monetary and fiscal policy rules in an economy characterized by Harrodian instability. We show that (1) a monetary rule along Taylor lines can be stabilizing for low debt ratios but becomes de‐stabilizing if the debt ratio exceeds a certain threshold, (2) a ‘Keynesian’ fiscal policy rule can stabilize the economy at full employment, (3) a fiscal ‘austerity’ rule that links fiscal parameters to deviations from a target debt ratio fails to adjust the ‘warranted’ to the ‘natural’ growth rate and destabilizes the warranted path and (4) instability may arise from a combination of fiscal and monetary policy rules which separately would stabilize the system.     

MODELING STABILIZATION POLICIES IN A FINANCIALLY UNSTABLE ECONOMY

A non‐linear macrodynamic model is presented here to study possible stabilization policies in a financially unstable economy. Three policy rules will be considered, namely the interest rate rule (also called Taylor rule), the money supply rule and the fiscal policy rule. It will be shown that the interest rate rule can be used to stabilize a financially unstable economy on a ‘desired’ growth path. However, when the economy falls into a ‘liquidity trap’, the interest rate rule is ineffective, and therefore the fiscal policy rule should be employed. We also find a rule of money supply that can deal with the problem of government debt while the rest of the economy can still be stabilized on the ‘desired’ growth path.     

Argentina's Currency Board Collapse: Weak Policy or Bad Luck?

Two basic views can be discerned in post‐mortems of Argentina's currency board: (1) that weak fiscal policy was fundamentally to blame, and (2) that the peso had become too severely overvalued for the peg to survive. This paper evaluates the evidence for these rival interpretations. The real effective exchange rate index did not indicate massive overvaluation, but this index does not capture the effects on the equilibrium rate of the ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows to emerging markets after 1998. It also understates the amount of adjustment required for Argentina to reach the equilibrium rate, because neighbour countries’ dollar exchange rates were held up by Argentina's overvaluation, as is indicated by their depreciation in 2002. Argentina was particularly vulnerable to the sudden stop because of the extreme volatility of its portfolio inflows. Fiscal policy simulations suggest that, even with a substantially improved primary balance from 1994 onwards, loss of investor confidence would still have triggered unsustainable debt dynamics once the recession began to bite after 1998. The stagnation of output and prices in Argentina created a yawning gap between the interest rate on debt and the rate of growth of nominal GDP. Had the currency been floated in, say, 1995, the real devaluation of the peso would still have pushed up the debt/GDP ratio, but higher output would have left greater scope for addressing this by running a sizeable primary surplus. Moreover, the more gradual depreciation under floating might have allowed the economy to adjust to higher debt service payments without resort to default. The IMF has criticised itself for not pressing for tighter fiscal policy in the 1990s. A more fundamental criticism would be that it was seduced by the bipolar model into complacency about adjustment to real shocks and forgetting the teachings of optimum currency area theory.     

The Effect of Government Spending on the Debt‐to‐GDP Ratio: Some Keynesian Arithmetic

According to the standard approach to the issue of public debt sustainability, fiscal austerity is the route that many countries must currently follow to reduce their debt‐to‐GDP ratios back to sustainable paths. We challenge this conventional wisdom and argue that, below full employment, an increase in government spending may paradoxically reduce the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. This claim is particularly relevant today because with Central Bank interest rates near zero there is no alternative to fiscal policy, and the only argument against increasing government expenditure as a way to fight unemployment is its supposed negative effect on the state of public finances.     

Monetary Policy,Taylor’s Rule and Instability

We analyse the dynamic behaviour of an economy where the central bank (CB) sets interest rates according to a Taylor‐type policy rule. A simple model for a closed and instability‐prone economy is constructed and subjected to formal dynamical analysis and numerical simulation. It is shown that a requirement for local stability is that the two response coefficients in the policy rule be positive. Similarly, it is shown that raising the response coefficient of the output gap increases the likeliness of the economy being stable, whereas raising the response coefficient of the inflation gap has an uncertain and probably negligible effect on local stability. Self‐sustained oscillations may arise for certain parameter values. Policy mistakes in the estimation of the long‐run equilibrium real interest rate or potential real GDP may prevent the CB from achieving its inflation target. A suggestion for enhancing the stabilization capacity of Taylor‐type policy rules in the context of the model presented is made.     

A Vicious Cycle of Manias,Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View

Over the past three decades, we find that asymmetric policy responses heavily contributed to manias and bursting bubbles that eventually trapped the major industrial economies into near zero short‐term interest rates with rapidly rising public indebtedness. The article uses the endogenous business cycle theories of Wicksell, Mises, Schumpeter, Hayek and Minsky to show how ostensible counter‐cyclical monetary policies are asymmetric, as central banks are less willing to raise interest rates in booms than cut them when bubbles collapse. After interest rates have fallen towards zero, fiscal policy is called on which sooner or later becomes bounded by extraordinary debt to GDP ratios. Central banks hesitate to raise interest rates even in the face of a partial economic recovery because the cost of public debt service would become prohibitive. The economies then languish at very low interest rates that encourage low productivity real investments and a continual threat of bubbles in asset and raw material markets. This makes them unable to deal with further macroeconomic shocks.     

Dringend gebraucht — aktive Wirtschaftspolitik,um Außenhandelsüberschüsse abzubauen

What can Germany do to reduce its high current account and trade surpluses? The article uses a macroeconometric model to simulate how a more expansionary fiscal policy as well as a combination of such a fiscal policy and higher wage growth would affect the trade balance, the fiscal balance and the public debt ratio. A much more expansionary fiscal policy than in the past would reduce the trade surplus only a little but would lead to a deterioration of the fiscal deficit and the public debt-to-GDP ratio. However, combined with higher wage growth, such a fiscal policy would reduce the trade surplus more effectively, would lead to higher tax growth and inflation and thus would also decrease the public debt ratio.     

The Latest Enlargement of the EU and ‘Buy National’ Rules

This paper presents a variety of indicators which reflect the extent of protection of individual manufacturing industries in ten countries of Central and Eastern Europe by the ‘Buy National’ rules in public procurement. Eight countries joined the EU in 2004 and the two remaining countries will become full members in 2007. Combining these data with information on the current international competitiveness of each individual industry, the paper identifies those industries that are likely to be particularly sensitive to the abolition of ‘Buy National’ rules due to their recent accession to the European Union. Two series of indicators are proposed to measure the impact of ‘Buy National’ policies. The first series outlines the behaviour of the public sector vis‐à‐vis domestic production and imports. The second series of indicators sketches the industrial structure of the sectors which, following the above analysis, seem to be protected by preferential public procurement. The interaction of both series of indicators can provide information about the extent of protection in terms of public procurement on a sectoral level and about its impact on domestic production.     

On dynamics in a Keynesian model of monetary and fiscal stabilization policy mix with twin debt accumulation

In this paper, a six‐dimensional model of flexible prices with the monetary and fiscal policy mix, describing the development of the firms’ private debt, the output, the expected rate of inflation, the rate of interest, government expenditure, and government bonds are analyzed. The stress put on the “twin debt accumulation” means that in our model both private debt accumulation and the public debt (government bond) accumulation are explicitly introduced. Questions concerning the existence of limit cycles around its normal equilibrium point are investigated. The bifurcation equation is found. The formulae for the calculation of its coefficients are gained. Numerical example illustrating the results attained is presented by means of numerical simulations.     

The ethical and policy implications of profiling ‘vulnerable’ customers

In the shadow of the global financial crisis, the issue of the marketing of credit has become an increasing concern in the past 12 months. Outstanding personal debt in the UK currently stands at £1479 billion and is rising by £1 million every 10.6 min. In Australia, there is currently $44.6 billion worth of outstanding credit card debt, and in the US, $2596 billion was owed on credit cards in 2008. At present, the banking sector utilizes sophisticated research methods to profile consumers, including those who might be considered financially vulnerable. However, the policy frameworks in most industrialized countries do not account for this form of target marketing when considering how to protect vulnerable groups. This paper is an initial attempt to examine the different methods by which profiling is conducted and the policy implications of this sophisticated form of segmentation and targeting. We argue that current consumer policies are inadequate in protecting vulnerable consumers from these marketing techniques, and recent recommendations from the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, and the Australian Law Reform Commission to allow banks and lenders to ‘pre‐screen’ potential customers will exacerbate personal debt levels, rather than reducing them.     

积极财政政策的调整与财政改革

从当前及今后一个时期国内外经济发展态势分析和配合中央近期的宏观调控政策,应对积极财政政策加以调整.这不仅有利于巩固当前我国经济发展的良好势头,而且对于把握机遇促进我国经济社会长期稳定发展具有战略意义.在积极财政政策调整中要适当调减财政政策扩张力度,改进原来以长期建设国债为主的实施财政扩张性政策的工具组合,根据公共财政要求调整支出投向和重点.特别是应注重结合财政政策调整推进财政改革,完善税费制度,构建内需平稳增长机制,强化财政对结构优化的作用,并健全分税分级的公共财政体制,在长期建设国债规模缩小后,发展新的财政支出方式.     

ARE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND STABLE BALANCED GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM SIMULTANEOUSLY ATTAINABLE?

This paper presents an examination of the sustainability of national debt and economic growth, and the growth effects of government debt and income taxation. Results show sustainability of national debt and economic growth under the primary surplus rule. Fiscal policy and balanced growth are compatibly sustainable if and only if the government sets a long‐run target debt/GDP (gross domestic product) ratio within a reasonable range. Results also show that a rise in the long‐run debt/GDP ratio reduces the balanced growth rate. Based on these two results, the long‐run debt/GDP ratio is greater than zero if the government aims to maximize the balanced growth rate.     

Is Infrastructure Spending an Effective Fiscal Policy?

The impact of expansionary fiscal policy intended to increase economic growth by using infrastructure‐focused stimulus packages is analyzed by considering the debt to GDP ratio dynamics model. It is shown that for the data characterizing the current state of the US economy the government investment in infrastructure cannot decrease the debt to GDP ratio. The paper contributes to the ongoing fiscal policy debate whether government investment in infrastructure is an effective approach to boost the economy.     

Fiscal Rules and Twin Deficits: The Link between Fiscal and External Balances

This paper investigates the relationship between countries' fiscal balances and current accounts with an emphasis on the role of fiscal rules. The direct effect of fiscal policy on the current account via aggregate (import) demand is potentially amplified by indirect effects, materialising through interest rate effects and intergenerational transfers that reduce savings. On the other hand, the implied positive relation between fiscal and external balances is potentially attenuated by offsetting changes in savings through Ricardian equivalence considerations. We expect this attenuation effect to be stronger in countries with more stringent fiscal rules and test this hypothesis using a panel of 73 countries over the period 1985–2012. As with previous studies, we find a positive effect of fiscal balances on the current account, supporting the twin deficit hypothesis. However, the effect of fiscal balances on the current account depends on the stringency of fiscal (budget balance or debt) rules in place; it is reduced by one‐third on average and virtually eliminated for countries with the most stringent fiscal rules.     

Lässt sich der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit vertretbarem Aufwand reduzieren?

Can an expansive fiscal policy help to reduce Germany’s current account surplus while simultaneously creating positive spillover effects for the eurozone? If yes, what amount of measures would be required in order to bring the current account surplus below the 6% of GDP threshold specified in the EU Commission’s macroeconomic imbalance procedure? An analysis based on a global macroeconometric model shows that fiscal policy measures could reduce Germany’s surplus. The positive spillovers for the eurozone would be relatively small, however, while a huge amount of fiscal stimuli would be required to reach the 6% threshold. In addition, there would be a lasting increase in Germany’s public debt.     

‘Better safe than sorry’: consumer perceptions of and deliberations on nanotechnologies

Although nanotechnologies are considered key technologies that can drive growth‐generating innovations in well‐saturated markets, worldwide investment in nanotechnologies has to date focused largely on technology‐related development programmes and little effort has been expended to research associated risks. As a result, even though prior discourses have sensitized western consumers to potential health‐related dangers, solid knowledge on, for example, the toxicological and eco‐toxicological risks and unintended side effects of nanotechnology are scarce. This paper therefore presents an overview of the current evidence on consumer knowledge and perceptions of nanotechnology and public engagement with it, with a focus on the US, the UK and Germany. Overall, even though survey data suggest that awareness of the term ‘nanotechnology’ has risen slightly, today's consumers are generally ill informed about its nature and its applications in consumer‐related products. Hence, based on our analysis of these data, we argue that early political engagement in the nanotechnology issue – for example, consumer policy options that support consumer interest in the marketing of ‘nanos’– would facilitate objective public discourse.     

Mauritius Financial System Stress Index: Estimating the Costs of the Subprime Crisis

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a FSSI model for the Mauritius based on 11 components which reflect the core characteristics of Mauritius. Findings show that Mauritius had been affected by the crisis with the costs hovering around 3.4 to 5.4%. Latent risks are identified under public debt sustainability, tourist arrivals and earnings, central bank equity, quality of balance of payments sustainability, trade finance, net foreign investments on the stock market and future GDP growth paths in Europe and USA. Evidence is found of an impotent interest rate channel, a robust credit channel and a vibrant exchange rate channel. Banks’ profitability structure is found to be crisis-immune following a maintained interest rate spread at 7% despite a decline in the TED spread. The authorities should concentrate on tourism and credit channels while curtailing the interest rate spread to reinvigorate the interest rate transmission channel.     

Customer loyalty to food retailers in Northern Ireland: ‘devoted loyals’ or ‘promiscuous switchers’?

Store loyalty is a major challenge for food retailers, and the food retail market in Northern Ireland has been subject to considerable change in the past decade. Although shoppers will often patronize many stores, they typically have a primary affiliation to a ‘main’ food store that captures the majority of their food purchases. This study uses a unique approach to segmenting customers into groups based on loyalty in terms of both the type of data used to generate a loyalty score and the data collection techniques used. Innovative projective techniques have been used alongside traditional questioning techniques to reveal ‘behavioural’ and ‘emotional’ loyalty indicators, and in doing so create a holistic measure of customer loyalty to a main food store, allowing customers to be segmented into groups based on loyalty. A paper‐based questionnaire was administered to 152 food shoppers from throughout Northern Ireland. Responses to traditional questioning formats and projective techniques (cartoon friends and mini case studies) were analysed and used to generate a loyalty score for each respondent. The first group of customers nearly always visit the same store, are willing to recommend the store to others and are less likely to switch to a competitor, even when offered an incentive to do so. They also rate the ‘hard’ attributes of this store highly. As a result of these characteristics, customers in this segment were termed ‘devoted loyals’. The second group of customers may occasionally use a different supermarket for food shopping, some would consider switching to a competitor if offered an incentive, and they rate ‘hard’ store attributes at a slightly lower level than the ‘devoted loyals’. Based on their group profile, these customers were assigned the title of ‘susceptibles’. The third group of customers are less willing to actively encourage friends and family to shop at a specific store. Many in this group did not consider their current store as their number one choice in the next few years. An incentive to switch to a competitor store is more likely to trigger a transfer of loyalty by this group. These customers were termed ‘promiscuous switchers’.     

INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS: SURVEYING THE ‘OLD’ AND THE ‘NEW’

This paper surveys and compares the literature on the ‘new’ institutionalism (North, Williamson, etc.) with that of the ‘old’(Veblen, Commons, Mitchell). A criterion for distinguishing these two schools is suggested, along with criticisms of the limitations of each. The ‘new’ institutionalism is associated with methodological individualism and the idea that the individual should be taken as given. Particular attention is paid to ‘new’ institutionalist treatments of markets and firms. The paper moves on to examine some ‘old’ institutionalist criticisms of ‘economic man’ as well as some negative features of the ‘old’ institutionalism. On the positive side, the latter is seen to have an ‘evolutionary’ dimension, related to modern work in the area of technological change.     

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT UNDER AN EXTERNAL AND FISCAL CONSTRAINT: A FIX‐PRICE/FLEX‐PRICE APPROACH

This paper presents a dual economy model of the fix‐price/flex‐price kind that explicitly allows for the existence of a government budget constraint in a fully open economy. Both the external and fiscal closures resemble very much the contemporary experience of several Latin American countries, where fiscal discipline and fix exchange rate systems have been the norm. Thus, within the public sector, it is assumed that public investment is the adjustment variable, while foreign reserves variation adjusts the external balance. Short‐run impacts of policy‐induced variables and changes in exogenous external financing are analysed. Relevant trade‐offs, especially between output and inflation, follow from an analysis in which the time perspective is rather short. However, in the medium term, some balancing forces in the economy can moderate the trade‐offs. We show among a wide range of events and policy options that this is the case of debt relief or a concerted lending strategy.