可转换债券发行的长期股票市场价格绩效研究

应用长期事件研究法,对2000-2004年间发行可转换债券的上市公司的长期市场绩效表现进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,可转债发行前后,可转债标的公司的长期股票价格绩效在绝大多数区间上显著优于行业、规模与权益市值对面值比率的对照组,也显著优于等权加权和总市值加权的综合市场收益率;选择兼有债权和股票期权双重属性的可转债,在一定程度上可以维持标的公司股票价格长期绩效的优良表现。     

View from practice: Stock market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes in Malaysia

Documented evidence on conventional bond markets shows negative market reaction to bond credit rating downgrade and no reaction to credit rating upgrade. Despite the fact that sukuk issuances make up more than 58.8% of the value of outstanding bonds in the country and Malaysia issues at least half of the world's sukuk and is widely recognized as a leader in the sukuk space, there is no documented evidence on the stock market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes. This study analyzed the wealth effect of sukuk credit rating changes in Malaysia using 16 sukuk upgrades and 20 sukuk downgrades for the period 2000–2014. The evidence shows negative market reaction to downgrades and positive significant reaction to sukuk rating upgrade. This symmetrical market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes implies the market was indifferent between bonds and sukuk from the credit rating perspective. This finding supports the notion that the credit rating agencies are Shariah‐neutral when rating these capital market instruments.     

可转债发行公司经营绩效实证研究

对中国上市公司2000-2004年间发行的可转债进行研究,统计检验结果发现,可转债发行后两年内,发行公司经营绩效有小幅下降,与行业规模组对比,发行可转债的公司属于绩优公司,发行前后各项绩效指标都高于行业规模组,而与增发配股组比较,二者不存在显著差异,发行后转债组的成长性指标高于增发配股组。     

Are green bonds priced lower than their conventional peers?

The green bond market's rapid growth has alerted issuers and investors to this sustainable area of investment. This study ascertains whether green bonds are priced lower than conventional bonds—whether a negative green bond premium exists in both Chinese and global bond markets—and the driving forces behind any such green bond premium. First, an event study is set up to observe stock market's reaction upon issuance of green bonds to test whether green bonds are embedded with additional value by improving the issuer's equity market performance. Then, using the matching method and a two-layer regression process, the study estimates the green bond premium in the Chinese and global markets, respectively, and analyses factors affecting the green bond premium. The event study reveals that green bond issuance could reduce the issuer's equity return performance. The regression models found no significant negative green bond premium in either Chinese or global markets, indicating that green bonds are not priced significantly lower than conventional bonds. However, global market models show that issuing green bonds in CNY could reduce the green bond premium, unlike in USD or EUR.     

Wealth‐to‐Income Ratio and Stock Market Movements: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality Test

We use a nonparametric causality‐in‐quantile test to analyze the predictive ability of the wealth‐to‐income ratio (wy) for excess stock returns and their volatility. Our results reveal that the wy is nonlinearly related with excess stock returns, and hence, results from linear Granger causality tests cannot be deemed robust. When we apply the nonparametric causality‐in‐quantile test, we find that the wy can predict excess stock returns over the majority of the conditional distribution, with the exception being the extreme ends, that is, when the market is in deep bear or bull phases. However, the wy has no predictability for the volatility of excess stock returns.     

Seasoned equity offerings by small and medium-sized enterprises

Most analyses of small firms’ decision to seek outside equity financing and the conditions thereof concern private firms. Knowledge of the risk and return of entrepreneurial ventures for outside investors is consequently limited. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the Canadian context, where small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are allowed to list on a stock market. We analyze seasoned equity offerings launched by SMEs over the last decade. These public issuers can be considered low quality firms with poor operating performance. Managers issue equity before a large decrease in operating and stock market performance. Individual investors do not price the stocks correctly around the issue and incur significant negative returns in the years following the issue. This is particularly true for constrained issuers. We confirm that entrepreneurial outside equity attracts lemons and that individual investors cannot invest wisely in emerging ventures. Probably as a consequence of individual investors’ lack of skill and rationality, the cost of outside equity financing of Canadian public SMEs is abnormally low.     

Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages

A combination of simple moving average trading strategies with several window lengths delivers a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance and kurtosis compared with buying and holding the underlying asset using daily returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, momentum, and standard deviation as well as more than 1000 individual US stocks. The combination moving average (CMA) strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 2% to 16% per year before transaction costs. The performance of the CMA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the market dividend yield, short‐term interest rates, and market conditions, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the CMA strategy.     

Religion and the Clash of “Ideals” and “Realities” in Business: The Case of Islamic Bonds (Sukuk)

Fueled by an increasing demand for investments that comply with Shariah (Islamic law), sukuk (Islamic investment certificates or participation certificates) have developed as one of the main components of the Islamic finance industry. In general, sukuk can be structured as asset based or asset backed, yielding wholly different risk profiles in the event of default and liquidation. However, given that the sukuk market is dominated by asset‐based sukuk, this article examines the motivation for greater interest in this specific sukuk structure. It also analyzes the challenges facing the regulatory framework and tax implemented for Islamic securitization in various jurisdictions. Then, it further evaluates, from the perspective of credit rating agencies, the importance of purchase undertakings in the structure and some controversies on this very point. The main issue that emerges is the difficulty of resolving the clash between the ideals of Islam and the realities of the marketplace. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Calendar Structure of the Japanese Stock Market: The ‘Sell in May Effect’ versus the ‘Dekansho‐bushi Effect’

We report on a seasonal pattern that has persisted in the Japanese stock market for more than half a century: Mean stock returns are significantly positive for months during the first half of the calendar year and significantly negative for months during the second half. Dubbed the Dekansho‐bushi effect, this seasonality is independent of other known calendar anomalies, such as the so‐called January effect. The Dekansho‐bushi effect should be distinguished from the ‘sell in May effect,’ because Japanese stocks perform well in June and poorly in November and December. The Dekansho‐bushi effect varies in magnitude among firms and is particularly significant among small firms with high book‐to‐market ratios. Nonetheless, the effect exists, regardless of a company's size or book‐to‐market ratio.     

Fama–French in China: Size and Value Factors in Chinese Stock Returns

We investigate the size and value factors in the cross‐section of returns for the Chinese stock market. We find a significant size effect but no robust value effect. A zero‐cost small‐minus‐big (SMB) portfolio earns an average premium of 0.61% per month, which is statistically significant with a t‐value of 2.89 and economically important. In contrast, neither the market portfolio nor the zero‐cost high‐minus‐low (HML) portfolio has average premiums that are statistically different from zero. In both time‐series regressions and Fama–MacBeth cross‐sectional tests, SMB represents the strongest factor in explaining the cross‐section of Chinese stock returns. Our results contradict several existing studies which document a value effect. We show that this difference comes from the extreme values in a few months in the early years of the market with a small number of stocks and high volatility. Their impact becomes insignificant with a longer sample and proper volatility adjustment.     

Negativity Bias in Attention Allocation: Retail Investors’ Reaction to Stock Returns

We argue that negative stock market performance attracts more attention from retail investors than comparable positive performance. Specifically, we test and confirm the hypothesis that retail investors pay more attention to negative extreme returns than positive ones. We present a measure of attention at the aggregate and company‐specific levels using Google's internet search volume indexes. These measures correlate with, but are different from, existing proxies of attention. Our empirical results strongly support the position that investors display a negativity bias in attention allocation with respect to extreme stock returns. Across all specifications, lagged negative extreme returns are stronger predictors of high attention at the individual‐stock and stock market levels than positive ones.     

On the Demand Elasticity of Initial Public Offerings: An Analysis of Discriminatory Auctions

We analyze 52 Taiwanese IPOs that were introduced through discriminatory auctions (you pay what you bid) between December 1995 and October 1998. The evidence suggests that the elasticity of demand for IPOs in Taiwan through discriminatory auctions is relatively flat. The elasticity is significantly negatively correlated with bidders’heterogeneity, which is consistent with the investor heterogeneity hypothesis. We also find that the average winning bidders earn a significant average abnormal return of 7.83% in the post–IPO market. The post–IPO market abnormal return is positively correlated with the demand elasticity, the idiosyncratic risk of stock returns and the institutional participation rate, and is negatively correlated with the auction clearing price, which is consistent with theory. Finally, there is evidence that informed investors have an incentive to shade their demand for IPOs to avoid the winner’scurse. The most aggressive bidders (the top 5% of the winning bidders) on average incur a small loss of 1.64% (not significant) in the market–adjusted initial returns.     

The Short– and Long–run Performance of New Listings in Tunisia

This study examines abnormal stock market returns of new listings on the Tunisian Stock Exchange. Substantial positive abnormal returns are found on the first listing day and this finding is similar to that obtained in other countries. Subsequent performance is poor and investors who bought shares at the close of trading on the first day would have lost about 22% against the Tunis Stock Exchange index over a three–year period. The possible causes of this are investigated. Among the factors found in the literature that possibly affect the level of long–term performance, only the state of the IPO market, the initial return, the delay in reaching the ‘first market price’ and the size of the firms have significant coefficients. This result is supportive of the traditional fad’s interpretation of long–term underperformance.     

Information asymmetry and investor trading behavior around bond rating change announcements

This study examines stock market reactions to public announcements (corporate bond rating changes), including changes in stock prices and investor behavior in terms of trading volumes and patterns. Abnormal returns, abnormal volumes, and net order imbalances are estimated using high-quality stock transaction data from Korean firms, whose bonds were rated by Korea's leading credit rating agencies between 2000 and 2015. We find positive (negative) abnormal stock returns around upgrades (downgrades), although the stock price reactions to downgrades are more statistically significant than those to upgrades. Significant abnormal volumes and order imbalances are found around rating changes, and the extent to which each investor group (domestic individuals, domestic institutions, or foreign investors) reacts to a rating change varies. Our analyses also support that foreign and domestic institutional investors are better informed than individual investors.     

The investment nature of income trusts and their role in diversified portfolios

We examine the investment characteristics of income trusts to explore their role within a portfolio as well as to clarify the on‐going political debate surrounding income trusts. Results show that income trusts exhibited risk‐adjusted performance that far outperformed equities and bonds during our sample period. We adopt a multifactor return generating process for ex‐post income trust returns to quantify the degree to which they are influenced by bond‐ and stock‐related effects. The relationship between trust returns and bond returns is very weak, whereas the relationship between trust returns and stock returns is quite strong. We conclude that while income trusts appear indistinct from equities as an asset class, they significantly expand the efficient set. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Saddled with Attention: Overreaction to Bankruptcy Filings

We analyze the effect of investor attention on stock prices around Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. We measure investor attention as abnormal search volume from Google, and find that attention‐grabbing companies have more negative abnormal stock returns in the days before and during bankruptcy filings and more positive abnormal returns immediately thereafter. That is, for companies receiving high attention, investors overreact to a bankruptcy filing; for companies receiving low attention, they underreact. This pattern is more pronounced for companies with low institutional ownership and holds after controlling for standard predictors of stock performance during bankruptcy.     

The Disappearing January/Turn of the Year Effect: Evidence From Stock Index Futures and Cash Markets

This study examines the returns, relative to the S&P 500, on cash indices and futures tracking smaller stocks around the turn of the year. While we control for volatility clustering, return autocorrelation in small stock indices, and other calendar effects, our main focus is the evolution of the turn of the year effect through time: in particular, whether the effect is smaller or takes place earlier subsequent to the introduction of the S&P Midcap and Russell 2000 futures in 1993. We find that evidence of a traditional turn of the year effect, in both cash and futures, is confined to the pre‐1993 period. Post‐1993, there are no abnormal returns during the turn of the year window as a whole. Interestingly, returns in this period remain high on the last trading day of December, but they are negative across the first five trading days of January. In addition, post‐1993, we often observe significant abnormal returns prior to the traditional turn of the year, i.e., in the pre‐Christmas and post‐Christmas windows. Taken together, our results suggest that market participants may be eliminating the turn of the year effect with the aid of two new futures contracts that are well suited to this purpose. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:755–784, 2004     

Which firms do prefer Islamic debt? An analysis and evidence from global sukuk and bonds issuing firms

The Islamic debt instrument sukuk has been in the market for two decades; still, we do not know why a firm prefers an Islamic debt over conventional debt, set aside religiosity issue. We argue there is a genuine reason to choose Islamic debt because it has lighter indebtedness, benefits of avoiding external monitoring, and tax incentives. Based on the cross-country data for 346 firms issuing dollar-denominated global sukuk and bonds, we find that firms that prefer Islamic debt and issue sukuk are financially more unstable, and thus exposing to higher insolvency risk as compared to bond issuing firms.     

Market Timing With Moving Averages

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.     

The Impact of Fraudulent False Information on Equity Values

There are two types of stock price manipulation examined in the theoretical literature: (1) insider trading, which involves private information that is true and (2) the public spreading of fraudulent false information. While there is a large empirical literature on insider trading, this is the first empirical article to examine the impact of false, fraudulent public information on stock prices and trading volume. We find that such false information, even after being denied by a credible source such as the SEC, generates both abnormal returns and abnormal trading volume. We also find that the effects of the false information on security returns and volume can be persistent for at least 2 weeks. In addition, we show that perpetrators of false news attacks can make potentially large profits from such market manipulations.