中国经济开放度与经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国对外贸易迅速发展,吸收FDI以及对外直接投资规模不断扩大,国民经济长期保持高速增长。通过贸易开放度和投资开放度两个指标测算中国的经济开放度,并在此基础上运用VAR模型和冲击反应模型对中国经济开放度与经济增长之间的关系进行经验检验。结果表明,贸易开放度和投资开放度对中国经济增长的作用存在较大的差异。进一步的动态研究发现,在不同的发展阶段,经济开放度对中国经济增长的冲击作用也存在较大的差异。     

贸易开放度与经济增长研究进展述评

文章以贸易开放度度量指标的构建方式将贸易开放度的度量方法分为指标体系法和模型构建法进行阐述,并对每类方法存在的问题进行了评论;尽管贸易开放度与经济增长的关系在理论上有较为一致的观点.但是在实证研究方面却出现了不一致的结论,文章就实证研究结论不一致的原因进行了分析与评论.     

Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta-analysis

A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially, which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation–inequality relationship. We use a new data set consisting of 1,254 observations from 123 primary studies. By applying meta-analysis and meta-regression methods, we obtain several main findings. First, globalisation has a (small-to-moderate) inequality-increasing effect. Second, while the effect of trade globalisation is small, financial globalisation shows a more sizeable and significantly stronger inequality-increasing impact. Third, we find an average inequality-increasing impact of globalisation in both advanced and developing countries. Fourth, education and technology moderate the impact of globalisation on income inequality.     

Consequences of deindustrialisation for globalisation: Insights for international business

Literature suggests many countries across the world are facing a growing political backlash against the consequences of deindustrialisation. Intensifying anti-globalisation sentiment associated with this backlash has important implications for international business. In the absence of empirical evidence, it is however unclear to what extent deindustrialisation has contributed to a recent slowdown in the rate of growth of globalisation. Considering the importance of this knowledge, this paper tests predictions in the literature that this slowdown has to some extent been caused by deindustrialisation (declining country shares of manufacturing’s output in gross domestic product). Granger and generalised method of moments findings suggest some support for these predictions. On the basis of the findings, it is argued that compensation should be prioritised for those that stand to lose due to deindustrialisation. Further research is also called for, to explore other ‘root’ causes of current anti-globalisation movements, and to address them, before consequences spill over into a post COVID-19 era of uncertainty for international business.     

贸易开放与经济增长的影响机制研究——基于广东产业专业化指数的协整分析

改革开放30年,广东省依靠政策优势、区位优势和华侨优势,实现对外开放的先行一步,带动了国际贸易的发展和相关产业的兴起.文章分析了贸易开放带来的产业专业化生产以及对广东经济增长的影响机制,构造了基于14个细分行业的广东生产率产业专业化指数,通过协整分析和改进的因果检验法发现:广东对外开放先行一步吸收了大量的FDI,提高了贸易开放度,同时专业于具有生产率优势和资源禀赋的行业生产,促进广东省经济的长期增长.     

进口贸易促进广东省经济增长的实证分析——基于需求结构的分析

运用国民收入恒等式建立一个包括投资、消费、进出口方程的联立方程组模型,系统地对广东省进口和经济增长之间的关系做了分析,结果表明进口通过与投资、消费、投资领域的互动效应引致经济增长。     

黑龙江省对外贸易对经济增长的拉动效应分析

本文运用SAS统计软件对黑龙江省对外贸易与经济增长关系进行回归分析。可以看出,对外贸易促进了黑龙江省经济发展,但与全国平均水平相比还有很大的差距。因此,黑龙江省应根据现实情况,充分利用自身优势大力发展对外贸易,在东北振兴中实现经济的跨越式、可持续发展。     

The interplay of international trade,economic growth and income convergence: a brief intellectual history of recent developments

The literature on the interplay of international trade, economic growth, and income convergence across economies has proliferated in the past few decades. The present essay reviews the theoretical advancements and empirical findings in this literature. The focus will be on recent developments with a few glances at the past. The essay also describes new findings and insights into the role of international trade in global income distribution. Ideas for further research are offered throughout the essay.     

The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue

Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports.     

Consumer responses to different degrees of advertising adaptation: the moderating role of national openness to foreign markets

We investigate the moderating role of national openness to foreign markets on consumer responses (attitude to ad, brand and purchase intention) to different degrees of advertising adaptation in Belgium, Iran and India. We operationalize three levels of advertising adaptation (standardization, glocalization and adaptation) by manipulating the model (international versus local celebrity) and advertising copy (international versus local advertising copy). The results show that societies with a low openness to foreign markets respond more positively to fully adapted ads than to glocalized and standardized ads. The differences in responses decrease with national openness.     

贸易开放视角下的地区税收竞争与经济增长--来自中国的经验证据

经济全球化的深入使得一国之内税收竞争的增长效应更多地受制于对外开放因素的影响。本文基于2000－2013年中国29个省（市）的面板数据,旨在从贸易开放的视角实证考察税收竞争对经济增长的影响及作用机制。两阶段最小二乘法（2 SLS ）的研究结果表明,在影响区域经济增长方面,贸易开放与地区间税收竞争存在一定程度的策略替代性;面板门限模型（ PTR）的运用,发现不同区域贸易开放度存在较大差异,从而形成税收竞争增长的类“N”效应。在考虑到贸易开放度区域异质的情形下,地区税收竞争依旧是促进区域经济增长的重要政策工具,注重税收竞争对政策工具的“精准”投放。     

Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won,which lost?

The world average exports-to-GDP ratio increased from 17% in 1985 to 27% in 2015. Hence, world exports have grown much faster than world GDP. However, despite this overall trade integration, which is a key aspect of globalisation, the exports-to-GDP ratios have declined for 29 of the 118 countries with such data from 1985 to 2015. Some countries have been driving globalisation, while others have become marginalised. This paper examines three decades of globalisation to shed some light upon which countries might be considered winners and which countries might be considered losers of globalisation. After summarising the evolution of income and income per capita, we examine the evolution of exports and net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Contradictory to previous decades, we show there are now many countries from all income groups that have either experienced marginalisation or been driving globalisation. We then use novel regression analysis to review the robustness of generally accepted drivers of globalisation and marginalisation, with education and macroeconomic stability being the two most robust determinants.