Did Globalisation Influence Credit Market Deregulation?

We investigate whether globalisation influenced credit market deregulation over the period 1970–2010. Globalisation is measured by the KOF indices of globalisation. Credit market deregulation is measured by the credit market freedom indicators of the Fraser Institute. The results from both cross‐sectional and panel regressions using ordinary least squares indicate a positive correlation between globalisation and credit market deregulation. We account for reverse causality using predicted trade openness as an instrumental variable and show that this approach gives rise to different conclusions. Two‐stage least squares estimations do not show that globalisation had a causal influence on credit market deregulation.     

The impact of trade openness on the unemployment rate in G7 countries

Recent and ongoing literature strongly implies the existence of a significant and robust impact of trade openness (liberalisation) and globalisation on unemployment, particularly in developed economies. This paper empirically investigates the impacts of four different measures of trade openness and globalisation on the unemployment rate in an unbalanced panel framework. The analysis focuses on the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). Robust empirical findings from panel data estimates demonstrate that, along with macroeconomic indicators and market size, all the measures of trade openness and globalisation are significantly and negatively associated with the unemployment rate. Therefore, we conclude that the continuation of the globalisation process instead of protectionism is of great importance in reducing the unemployment rate in developed economies.     

Globalisation and Obesity

The WHO has recently announced the global obesity epidemic. An economic model is developed in which globalisation factors generate health externalities and contribute to global obesity growth. The unbalanced panel data set contains the information for 79 countries over the period 1986–2008. Fixed‐effects panel data estimation and quantile regression analysis were used to analyse the data. The fixed‐effects panel model results indicate that the impact of trade openness and the globalisation social index (GSI) on global obesity rates is positive and significant, which is consistent with prior expectations, while surprisingly the foreign direct investments (FDI) has no impact on global obesity. While these results are interesting, they are hiding the effect of globalisation processes across the conditional distribution of the obesity variable. The use of quantile regression uncovered that the impact of the FDI and the GSI on low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates in our sample) is positive and significant, while high quantiles are not affected. Since low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates) are representative of the less‐ and medium‐developed countries, this result implies that social globalisation and FDI adversely impact obesity in less‐to‐medium developed countries. Trade openness generally has no impact on changes in obesity rates across quantiles.     

Linkage between international trade and economic growth in GCC countries: Empirical evidence from PMG estimation approach

This paper explores the empirical evidence of the links between economic growth and openness to international trade by controlling for auxiliary variables in the model for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the annual sample period 1980–2010. After testing for cointegration based on a recent bootstrap panel test, we employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique of M.H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. Smith (1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–634) that is appropriate for drawing sharper conclusions in dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relations. The results show evidence of cointegration relationship between the variables of interest, and reveal that economic growth responds positively to trade openness over both the short run and long run. The evidence is robust to using various trade openness measures and to alternative model specifications, suggesting thus the non-fragility of the linkage between economic growth and openness to international trade for the GCC region. Our findings are then promising and support the view that economic growth is directly and robustly linked to trade openness for the GCC countries.     

The Evidence on Globalisation

Globalisation is blamed for many socioeconomic shortcomings. I discuss the consequences of globalisation by surveying the empirical globalisation literature. My focus is on the KOF indices of globalisation that have been used in more than 100 studies. Early studies using the KOF index reported correlations between globalisation and several outcome variables. Studies published more recently identify causal effects. The evidence shows that globalisation has spurred economic growth, promoted gender equality and improved human rights. Moreover, globalisation did not erode welfare state activities, did not have any significant effect on labour market interaction and hardly influenced market deregulation. It increased, however, within‐country income inequality. The consequences of globalisation thus turn out to be overall much more favourable than often conjectured in the public discourse.     

The interest group theory of financial development in China: Openness and the role of interest groups

The interest group theory of financial development predicts that the incumbents' opposition to financial development will be weaker when an economy is open to both trade and capital flows. Based on regressions of financial development on trade and financial openness, existing studies only provide indirect tests of the hypothesis and deliver mixed findings. This paper proposes models for direct tests of interest group theory for China. Using Chinese cross-province data, we define and measure interest groups based on the close tie between state-owned enterprises and local government in China. The empirical results show that the opposition from interest groups to financial development cannot be weakened in provinces with high trade or financial openness alone. However, the opposition is indeed weakened in provinces with high levels of both trade and financial openness. These results provide robust support for interest group theory in accounting for cross-province differences and time-series variation in financial development in China.     

Globalisation and Inter‐occupational Inequality: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

How does globalisation affect inter‐occupational wage inequality within countries? This paper examines this by focusing on two dimensions of globalisation: openness to trade and openness to capital flows, using a relatively new data set on occupational wages. Estimates from a dynamic model for 15 OECD countries spanning the period 1983–2003 suggest that increased openness increases occupational wage inequality in poorer OECD countries as predicted by the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson model, but for the more advanced OECD countries, we find no significant effect. The absence of the expected result for the latter category can be due to a rapid increase in the supply of skilled labour, to outsourcing of skilled jobs or because changes in the trade flows are too small to have any significant effect in those countries.     

城市化进程中贸易开放的碳减排效应

文章基于2003-2012年中国省际面板数据,通过构建城市化水平测算指标体系、邻接矩阵、地理距离空间权重矩阵、经济距离空间权重矩阵,采用面板门限模型、空间杜宾模型,实证检验贸易开放、城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响效应。结果发现,贸易开放、城市化、二氧化碳排放均存在显著的空间集聚效应。贸易开放对二氧化碳排放的作用受人力资本存在的单一门限值影响,若地区人力资本越过门限值,贸易开放可以显著抑制二氧化碳排放;反之,贸易开放对二氧化碳排放则有促进作用。     

Impact of trade openness on GDP growth: Does TFP matter?

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study is to empirically explore the impact of trade openness on GDP growth initiating with the idea that trade openness cannot be fully characterized through the different openness measures only, we propose to account for total factor productivity (TFP) development level as an additional dimension of countries’ trade integration. Our empirical application is based on 35 years’ balanced panel of 82 countries spanning 1980–2014. To address the potential endogeneity issue, we use the system GMM estimator developed for dynamic panel data models. The results outline that there exists an interesting non-linear pattern between trade openness and GDP growth when TFP development level is taken as an intervening variable into account: trade may have a negative impact on GDP growth when countries have specialized in low-TFP development level; trade openness clearly boosts GDP growth once countries exhibit a minimum threshold of TFP development level. Therefore, there is some pattern of complementarity between trade openness and TFP development level so that the higher the TFP development level, the higher the impact of the trade openness on GDP growth.     

Does globalisation affect the shadow economy?

We investigate the impact of globalisation on the shadow economy using panel data for 119 countries. Our evidence suggests that globalisation matters in mitigating shadow development. More specifically, we find that political globalisation reduces the shadow economy, whereas economic and social globalisations have limited statistical support after controlling for important factors that affect the size of the shadow economy. Overall, these results are robust after accounting for an alternative measure of the shadow economy, outliers, endogeneity and alternative model specifications.     

Determinants of FDI inflows to Arab economies

The paper studies location determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) to 16 Arab economies over the period from 1984 to 2012, by employing Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond linear dynamic panel data estimation. We find that market size, trade openness, preferential trade agreements and financial development have significant positive impact on FDI inflows to Arab economies. FDI in Arab economies appears to be resource seeking since the total oil supply variable is positive and significant. The paper finds that better institutions and educated labour force may play a key role in attracting FDI inflows. We suggest that Arab economies should sequence their economic policy measures with the institutional ones, beginning with a focus on privatization and trade liberalization, and subsequently shift to improvement in economic growth.     

The ‘amelioration’ of child labor, ‘a modest proposal’

More than 317 million children between the age of 5 and 17 are working in the world. Child labor is a persistent phenomenon, even though its incidence has subsided with economic development. In this paper, we conduct a panel study of 101 countries from 1980 to 2004 where child labor is proxied by the labor force participation of children aged 10–14. We look at the relationships between child labor and investments in human capital, foreign direct investments, countries’ openness to trade, and credit market constraints. We depart from the contributions of cross-country studies by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of child labor and individual country-specific effects. We find support for the conclusions of the above-mentioned studies: countries that trade more and have a higher stock of foreign direct investment have less child labor. More generally, we find that trade openness, investments in human capital, and financial development are associated with a reduction of child labor. Child labor persists but tailored policies on trade, investment, and financial reform can lessen child labor along with economic growth, improvements in health, and rising standards of living.     

Globalisation and Corruption,Revisited

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the determinants of corruption, focussing on the role of globalisation and inequality. The estimates for a panel of 102 countries over the period 1995–2005 point to three main results: (i) Detection technologies, reflected in a high level of development, human capital and political rights reduce corruption, whereas natural resource rents increase corruption; (ii) Globalisation (in terms of both trade and financial openness) has a negative effect on corruption, which is more pronounced in developing countries; (iii) Inequality increases corruption, and once the role of inequality is accounted for, the impact of globalisation on corruption is halved. In line with recent theory, this suggests that globalisation – besides reducing corruption through enhanced competition – affects corruption also by reducing inequality.     

Trade openness,income levels,and economic growth: The case of developing countries, 1970–2009

This paper attempts to investigate the extent to which trade openness has had an impact on the levels of income and rates of growth in a sample of 115 developing countries for the period 1970–2009. Additionally, to assess whether there is an income level threshold for a country to benefit from international trade, the sample is broken down into three mutually exclusive groups of countries: low-income, lower middle-income, and upper middle-income countries. The main novelty of the paper lies on the use, on the one hand, of a new and better trade openness measure and, on the other hand, of non-stationary heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to cope with the problem of cross-sectional dependence. The results show a positive bi-directional relationship between trade openness and income level in the long run, thus suggesting that trade openness is both a cause and a consequence of the level of income. The results for the short run, that is, the link between openness growth and economic growth, go in the same direction.     

Globalization and school enrollment in a panel of countries

As the process of globalization has gained momentum in the past few decades, so too has interest in the effects of globalization on various socioeconomic outcomes grown. In this paper, I investigate the relationship between globalization and primary school enrollment. Both the economic globalization and social globalization measures from the KOF Index of Globalization are utilized in the analysis in order to capture the broad nature of globalization. The results of the panel data analysis indicate that there is a weak relationship between economic globalization and primary school enrollment, whereas the relationship between social globalization and primary school enrollment is both robust and highly significant. Examining the data by groups of countries indicates that relationship between economic globalization and school enrollment is positive and significant in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia, while it is weakly negative in Eastern Europe. The positive relationship between social globalization and school enrollment on the other hand is driven by countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East and Africa.     

International trade and unemployment: Theory and cross-national evidence

We present a model of trade and search-induced unemployment, where trade results from Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) and/or Ricardian comparative advantage. Using cross-country data on trade policy, unemployment, and various controls, and controlling for endogeneity and measurement-error problems, we find fairly strong and robust evidence for the Ricardian prediction that unemployment and trade openness are negatively related. This effect dominates the positive H-O effect of trade openness on unemployment for capital-abundant countries, which turns negative for labor-abundant countries. Using panel data, we find an unemployment-increasing short-run impact of trade liberalization, followed by an unemployment-reducing effect leading to the new steady state.     

Effect of financial development on international trade in Africa: Does measure of finance matter?

Although improving international trade on the back of financial sector development is one of the preoccupations of countries in Africa, empirical literature on financial development-trade nexus has not been rigorous in examining how finance shapes trade. In this study, we examine the effect of financial development on international trade in Africa relying on data for 46 countries over the period 1980–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments reveal differential effects of finance on trade. In particular, we notice that, private credit does not promote trade while domestic credit positively affects trade. These effects are robust to measures of trade. Thus, improving the level of private (domestic) credit dampens (amplifies) exports and trade openness. However, we also find a U-shaped relationship between private credit and trade measures suggesting that financial sector development may be detrimental (helpful) to trade for economies with low (high) level of private credit.     

Top income shares in OECD countries: The role of government ideology and globalisation

This paper investigates how government ideology and globalisation are associated with top income shares in 17 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We use top income shares of the World Wealth and Income Database (WID ). Globalisation is measured by the KOF index of globalisation. Static and dynamic panel model results show that the top income shares increased more under right wing governments than under left wing governments. The ideology‐induced effect was stronger when globalisation proceeded more rapidly. Globalisation was positively correlated with income shares of the upper‐middle class (P99–P90), but negatively with income shares of the rich (top 1%) in the overall sample. We show that the relationship differs between Anglo‐Saxon countries and other OECD countries. Globalisation was more pro‐rich in Anglo‐Saxon countries than in other OECD countries. Government ideology does not turn out to have a statistically significant effect on top income shares in Anglo‐Saxon countries after the 1980s, whereas ideology‐induced differences in the distributional outcomes continued in other OECD countries.     

辽宁省对外开放度的测算与比较研究

对外开放度是衡量一个地区经济活跃程度的重要指标,也是一个地区经济发展水平的重要表征。本文利用相关数据,测算了辽宁省的贸易开放度、资本开放度、生产开放度和经济开放度指标。并通过与广东、上海、北京等发达省市及全国平均开放度水平的比较,分析了造成辽宁省对外开放度相对较低的主要原因,提出了相应的对策和建议。     

Trade liberalization and informality nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on informal sector employment during the drastic 1988s trade reforms of Pakistan. It is generally perceived that increased external competition in less developed countries results in as an expansion in informal sector, which has less compliance with labor market regulations. Using micro-level data of Pakistan, we study the adjustments in the employment of informal sector due to trade openness. We find that informality and trade openness are associated. In Pakistan, trade reforms have given rise to employment in the informal sector. Our findings are robust to different trade-related measures. A substantial flexibility in labor market is required to benefit from the gains of liberalization.