The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate.     

Integration of International Long-Term Interest Rates: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

In this study, we re-examine the relationship among interest rates on the long-term government bonds of five industrialized countries. Using both the variance ratio test and fractional cointegration analysis, we find significant evidence that indicates the five government bond rates are fractionally cointegrated. In specific, our results show that the error correction term of the system of the five interest rates follows a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated process.     

The Role of Interest Rates in Influencing Long-Run Homeownership Rates

As a stated policy objective, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) seeks to boost the national homeownership rate to 70 percent by 2006. To accomplish this goal, they estimate that 3.8 million additional families be added to the ranks of U.S. homeowners. Furthermore, HUD estimates that the homeownership gap between minority and nonminority families must be reduced by a full 15 percent. Many policy instruments—both targeted and otherwise—have been suggested to increase homeownership. These range from low downpayment loans, greater access to credit in underserved areas, and interest rates subsidies. However, little is know about the efficacy of these measures to raise long-term homeownership rates. In this analysis, we focus on the role of interest rates on homeownership rates and the housing stock. In particular, we provide a critical review of the literature on the relationship between housing and interest rates in contrast to other determinants of homeownership and changes in housing supply. We then present our own estimates of the influence of interest rates on homeownership and housing starts. We find that interest rates play little direct role in changing homeownership rates. While changes in interest rates may affect the timing of changes in tenure status from renter to owner, the long-run ownership rate appears independent of interest rates. We find housing starts are, however, sensitive to changes in the interest rate. This implies that housing supply, or at least the timing of changes in housing supply, is sensitive to interest rates. It is though this mechanism that the stock of owner-occupied housing expands, though household formation and immigration may leave the ownership rate unchanged. We conclude by discussing whether other instruments, such as low down payment loans and improved technology for assessment of credit risk, may potentially be better suited to increasing long-term homeownership rates.     

GSEs,Mortgage Rates,and the Long-Run Effects of Mortgage Securitization

Our paper compares mortgage securitization undertaken by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) with that undertaken by private firms, with an emphasis on how each type of mortgage securitization affects mortgage rates. We build a model illustrating that market structure, government sponsorship, and the characteristics of the mortgages securitized are all important determinants of mortgage rates. We find that GSEs generally—but not always—lower mortgage rates, particularly when the GSEs behave competitively, because the GSEs implicit government backing allows them to sell securities without the credit enhancements needed in the private sector. Using our simulation model, we demonstrate that when mortgages eligible for purchase by the GSEs have characteristics similar to other mortgages, the GSEs implicit government-backing generates differences in mortgage rates similar to those currently observed in the mortgage market (which range between zero and fifty basis points). However, if the mortgages purchased by GSEs are less costly to originate and securitize, and if the GSEs behave competitively, then the simulated spread in mortgage rates can be much larger than that observed in the data.     

基于参数模型的国债市场利率曲线的估计

即期利率和远期利率曲线是金融行业中最为基本和重要的工具。在对利率期限结构参数模型中被广泛运用的NS模型和Svensson模型进行比较分析的基础上,估计了我国国债市场的即期利率和远期利率曲线。实证研究表明,Svensson模型在以最小化收益率误差的估计方法下,能够较理想地构造中国国债市场的即期利率曲线和远期利率曲线。     

基于短期利率动态模型的反向抵押贷款赎回权定价

住房反向抵押贷款作为一种新型的养老模式,为一些有房无钱的老年人解决了养老难题。本文就有赎回权的住房反向抵押贷款的赎回权的定价进行讨论,将赎回权看作是一种欧式看涨期权。同时,选择TGARCH模型拟合短期利率的动态变化,并利用短期利率动态模型改进B-S期权定价理论中关于无风险利率的限定,进而结合蒙特卡洛模拟的方法对期权进行数值计算,得到赎回权的价格。     

Interest Rates and the Market for New Light Vehicles

We study the impact of interest rate changes on the demand and supply of new light vehicles in an environment where consumers and manufacturers face their own interest rates. Interest rate changes impact the auto market through both households and manufacturers. For the impact of rate changes on price and output growth, the household channel is quantitatively more important. A 100 basis‐point increase in both interest rates causes annual growth rates of production to fall from 1.0% to ?11.0% and sales to fall from 1.0% to ?2.9% in the short run.     

Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Movements: Analyzing Short-term Investments in Long-term Bonds

Tests of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) are subject to various data problems when long-term interest rates are applied: due to the long investment period, time intervals for measuring exchange rate movements are usually overlapping and therefore not independent. This shortfall can be prevented by considering short-term investments in long-term bonds instead of investments to maturity. This article analyzes the explanatory power of long-term interest rates with regard to 1- and 3-month exchange rate movements by relating return differences from 1- and 3-month investments in domestic and foreign 10-year government bonds to nine different exchange rates. From a Swiss perspective, there is only weak support for an interrelation between return differences and the corresponding exchange rate movements, whereas from a US perspective, the resulting estimates are much more in line with UIP.The reader may for instance consider Engel (1996) and Froot and Thaler (1990).     

The Impact on Interest Rates of Unemployment Announcements and Their Revisions

The announced changes in monthly employment reports and in weekly new unemployment claim reports are based on new levels and on revisions to previous levels. We analyze the effect on interest rates of surprises to these two separate components of the changes. We find that for weekly reports the effect on interest rates of the new level is greater than the effect of the revisions. For monthly employment reports, the two components’ effects have similar strength.     

GSEs,Mortgage Rates,and Secondary Market Activities

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that securitize mortgages and issue mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In addition, the GSEs are active participants in the secondary mortgage market on behalf of their own investment portfolios. Because these portfolios have grown quite large, portfolio purchases (in addition to MBS issuance) are often thought to be an important force in the mortgage market. Using monthly data from 1993 to 2005 we estimate a VAR model of the relationship between GSE secondary market activities and mortgage interest rate spreads. We find that GSE portfolio purchases have no significant effects on either primary or secondary mortgage rate spreads. Further, we examine GSE activities and mortgage rate spreads in the wake of the 1998 debt crisis, and find that GSE portfolio purchases did little to affect mortgage rates. This empirical finding is robust to alternative identification assumptions and to alternative model and variable specifications.      

Cointegration, Efficiency and Forecasting in the Currency Market

Existing literature on using the cointegration approach to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange market gives mixed results. Arguments typically focus on econometric testing techniques, with fractional cointegration being the most current one. This paper tries to look at the issue from an economic perspective. It shows that the cointegrating relationship, whether cointegrated or fractionally cointegrated, is found mainly among the currencies of the European Monetary System which are set to fluctuate within a given range. Hence, there is no inconsistency with the notion of market efficiency. Yet, exploiting such a cointegrating relationship is helpful in currency forecasting. There is some evidence that restricting the forecasting model to consist of only cointegrated currencies improves forecasting efficiency.     

Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market

We analyze the relationship of high inflation and interest rates with stock returns in Brazil from May 1986 to May 2011, during which Brazil experienced subperiods of both high inflation (May 1986-June 1994) and relative monetary stability (July 1994-May 2011). The result in the total period is dominated by high inflation volatility, and the findings suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. During the high-inflation subperiod, interest rates are relevant to explain future changes in inflation and stock returns. Under low inflation, movements in interest rates are better anticipated by equity investors, suggesting higher market efficiency than in high-inflation circumstances.     

如何破解人民币国际化中的特里芬难题--让利率和汇率回归常态

任何一国主权信用货币在国际化过程中都会面临特里芬难题,而人民币国际化中的特里芬难题有其特殊性,如何破解这一难题值得我们深入考虑。文章从分析中国投资驱动、出口导向的增长模式入手,提出中国应尽快打破经济僵局和转变增长方式,让利率和汇率回归常态。更进一步地,文章认为中国应继续完善人民币的国际货币发行机制,同时较为稳步的推进资本项目可兑换。     

The Intertemporal Relationship Between the Currency Spot Market and the Currency Option Market

This study examines the lead/lag relationship between currency option and currency spot markets for the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen. Using intraday currency option transactions data for the year 1989 and applying a European type currency option pricing model, pair data series of the implied and the observed exchange rates are compiled. Causality tests are then employed to test the causal relation between the observed and the implied exchange rate changes. The results indicate that the currency spot market leads the currency option market by about ninety minutes.     

Macroeconomic Implications of Term Structures of Interest Rates Under Stochastic Differential Utility with Non-Unitary EIS

This paper proposes a continuous-time term-structure model under stochastic differential utility with non-unitary elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS, henceforth) in a representative-agent endowment economy with mean-reverting expectations on real output growth and inflation. Using this model, we make clear structural relationships among a term structure of real and nominal interest rates, utility form and underlying economic factors (in particular, inflation expectation). Notably, we show that, if (1) the EIS is less than one, (2) the agent is comparatively more risk-averse relative to time-separable utility, (3) short-term interest rates are pro-cyclical, and (4) the rate of expected inflation is negatively correlated with the rate of real output growth and its expected rate, then a nominal yield curve can have a low instantaneous riskless rate and an upward slope.     

Re-examining Cointegration, Unit Roots and Efficiency in Foreign Exchange Rates

This paper examines the cointegrating relationships in seven foreign exchange rates for a sample period from 1974 to 1991 by utilizing Johansen's (1991) method. Three subperiods are also examined to confirm the intertemporal stability of the test results. In addition, subgroups of the seven exchange rates are analyzed to determine the consistency of the empirical results with respect to different dimensions in the system. We find that the test results are sensitive to the choice of test statistics, time trends, subperiods as well as subgroups. All results indicate either one or no cointegrating relationship exists. Further, we study time series properties of twenty one cross-currency rates and the corresponding exchange rates in terms of a common currency. None of cross-currency rates are stationary and hence the pairs of exchange rates are not cointegrated.     

中日比较视角下利率完全市场化的均衡效应研究

利率作为经济运行中调控资本的比价,其市场化概率的大小对资源合理配置起着关键性的作用。通过对日本和中国利率市场化路径进行剖析,探讨日本利率完全市场化对经济的利弊,进而对中国利率完全市场化提供正反借鉴价值,最后得出中国实现利率完全市场化的诸多方略。     

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Asymmetries and Persistence in Bank Deposit Rates

This paper contains a model of price setting in the presence of heterogeneous customers, explaining why bank interest rates respond sluggishly to some extended movements in market interest rates but not to others. Price (the bank interest rate) is likely to change only slightly with cost (the market interest rate) when the price-cost margin is already large and to be responsive when the price-cost margin is relatively small. The model is tested using data on interest rates offered for bank deposit instruments during 1987–2001. The results support the theoretical model, indicating that customer behavior plays a role in bank interest rate decisions.     

Fisher Hypothesis Revisited: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis

This paper investigates the validity of the Fisher hypothesis using data from thirtythree developed and developing countries. Conventional cointegration tests do not provide strong evidence for a relation between nominal interest rates and inflation. Therefore, we use fractional cointegration analysis to test the long-run relationship between the two variables. The results indicate that a long-run relation between nominal interest rates and inflation does not appear for most countries in the sample when the conventional cointegration test is employed. However, fractional cointegration between the two variables is found for a large majority of countries, implying the validity of the Fisher hypothesis. The results also indicate that the equilibrium errors display long memory.