COINTEGRATION AND UNIT ROOTS

Abstract. This paper provides an updated survey of a burgeoning literature on testing, estimation and model specification in the presence of integrated variables. Integrated variables are a specific class of non-stationary variables which seem to characterise faithfully the properties of many macroeconomic time series. The analysis of cointegration develops out of the existence of unit roots and offers a generic route to test the validity of the equilibrium predictions of economic theories. Special emphasis is put on the empirical researcher's point of view.     

APPROXIMATIONS TO THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF COINTEGRATION TESTS

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the I(1), the conditional I(1), as well as the I(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting approximation is flexible, easy to implement and more accurate than the standard tables previously published.     

A REVIEW AND COMPARISON OF TESTS OF CROSS-SECTION INDEPENDENCE IN PANELS

Abstract.  In this paper we review and compare diagnostic tests of cross-section independence in the disturbances of panel regression models. We examine tests based on the sample pairwise correlation coefficient or on its transformations, and tests based on the theory of spacings. The ultimate goal is to shed some light on the appropriate use of existing diagnostic tests for cross-equation error correlation. Our discussion is supported by means of a set of Monte Carlo experiments and a small empirical study on health. Results show that tests based on the average of pairwise correlation coefficients work well when the alternative hypothesis is a factor model with non-zero mean loadings. Tests based on spacings are powerful in identifying various forms of strong cross-section dependence, but have low power when they are used to capture spatial correlation.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH: MEASUREMENT AND MODELS

Abstract. Analysts debating the consequences of a policy change for the wealth distribution may come to different conclusions because of different views about how the distribution should be defined and measured, or about the processes determining the distribution. The aim of this survey is to provide an analytical framework within which such conflicts may be assessed. The first part of the paper discusses conceptual issues in the definition of 'wealth', and compares methods of deriving estimates of wealth distribution. The second, and larger, part of the paper surveys lifecycle and intergenerational models of the distribution of wealth, including a discussion of the role played by inheritance. The presentation is largely theoretical. Indeed, one of the paper's conclusions is that empirical modelling of the wealth distribution is under-developed, at least for the purposes of addressing many topical policy issues.     

THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SIMPLE X2 AND NEYMAN SMOOTH GOODNESS OF FIT TESTS

Suppose we wish to test whether data are consistent with a completely specified continuous distribution against a general alternative. Familiar omnibus tests are PEARSON'S X² test and NEYMAN'S smooth test. Fundamental problems in the application of these tests are the construction and number of classes to use for X², and the choice of the order of the NEYMAN smooth test. This paper examines these questions.     

UNCOVERED INTEREST PARITY IN ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE, AND MEXICO: A UNIT ROOT TEST APPLICATION WITH PANEL DATA

The aim of this study was to test uncovered interest parities for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, for the January 1990–December 2001 period, with the use of the rational expectation hypothesis. We also intend to evaluate the degree of mobility of foreign capital in these political jurisdictions, using panel data estimations, with unit root tests proposed by Levin and Lin (1992) , and Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) . The econometric results indicate the rejection of uncovered interest parity (UIP), for the period under study, for the group consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. However, the UIP hypothesis is not rejected for the group consisting of Argentina, Chile, and Mexico for the January 1991–December 2000 period.     

DEFICIENCIES AND THE PERPETUATION OF POWER: LATENT FUNCTIONS IN MANAGEMENT APPRAISAL

Institutionalized procedures for management appraisal are considered to be necessary and appropriate devices which contribute to and are supported by rational-legal ideologies of organization. The operation of such appraisal systems, however, is frequently regarded as deficient. This article discusses three inter-related propositions. They are that: 1. the rational-legal procedures of appraisal systems contradict the social processes by means of which dominant organizational power groups emerge, cohere and are perpetuated; 2. management appraisal systems consequently come to operate in ways which manifestly are consistent with a rational-legal ideology, but which do not constrain the prerogatives of members of dominant power groups to define reality and manage affairs in their own interests; and that 3. this inconsistency fulfils a latent function of perpetuating deficiency in the operation of management appraisal systems.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE QUANTITY AND DISTRIBUTION OF EDUCATION: A SURVEY

Abstract The focus of this survey is to discuss different attempts at incorporating the distributional dimension of human capital into the theoretical and empirical growth framework. We present a series of models which deviate from the direct link between the aggregate or average level of human capital and economic growth in that they introduce the distribution of education as a new element in explaining the relationship under investigation. After surveying the theoretical literature, we present recent empirical work on the relation between economic performance and the average level, as well as the distribution of education, respectively.     

PRACTITIONERS CORNER A POSITIVE SEMI-DEFINITE COVARIANCE MATRIX FOR HAUSMAN SPECIFICATION TESTS OF CONDITIONAL AND MARGINAL DENSITIES

ABSTRACT When the joint density of data can be factorized into a conditional and marginal densities, Hausman test can be used for diagnosing misspecifications of these densities. However, since common covariance estimates of the difference of the two estimators used in Hausman test need not be positive semi-definite in finite samples, the test statistic may be negative. This paper presents a simple and consistent covariance matrix which is positive semi-definite in any finite sample.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON GROWTH, POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF VIETNAM

Trade liberalization and regional economic integration have recently accelerated in East Asia, where several free trade areas have been established or are under negotiation. Vietnam, after acquiring Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) membership in 1995, has signed a bilateral trade package with the United States and participated in the China-ASEAN free trade area. This paper attempts to analyze the impact on Vietnam of ongoing regional economic integration, focusing on growth, poverty reduction and income distribution. For this purpose, we have constructed a globally linked Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and made use of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 6.0 and Vietnam's living standards surveys. The simulation analysis shows that the regional economic integration generally has a positive impact. It both enhances welfare and improves income-distribution for Vietnam. Household income and consumption increase, and poor and rural household groups benefit more than urban high income groups.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

Indonesia continually tries to open its economy through free trade areas (FTAs) on bilateral, regional, and multilateral bases. This paper discusses the impacts of FTAs on the Indonesian economy, particularly for economic growth, poverty, and income distribution. By using a Global Computable General Equilibrium (GCGE) model, we conducted the simulation analysis by setting eighteen scenarios for the ongoing and potential FTAs of different frameworks. Indonesia is found to benefit from joining in FTAs, except for the FTA with India. It is also implied that FTAs increase rural household income at higher rates than they increase urban household income. Moreover, FTAs' impacts are more favorable for unskilled workers than for skilled ones, and also for relatively poor households more than for rich households, both in urban and rural areas. In brief, FTAs provide Indonesia with income redistribution effects.