THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

THE DRIVERS OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN RICH COUNTRIES

Rising income inequality has recently come centre‐stage as a core societal concern for rich countries. The diagnosis of the forces driving inequality upwards and their relative importance remain hotly contested, notably with respect to the roles of globalization versus technology and of market forces versus institutions and policy choices. This survey provides a critical review and synthesis of recent research. The focus is on income inequality across the entire distribution, rather than only on what has been happening at the very top. We pay particular attention to include what has been learned from the analysis of micro‐data, to ensure that the coverage is not unduly US‐centric and to analyses of the interrelations between the different drivers of inequality. The marked differences in inequality trends across countries and time periods reflect how global economic forces such as globalization and technological change have interacted with differing national contexts and institutions. Major analytical challenges stand in the way of a consensus emerging on the relative importance of different drivers in how income inequality has evolved in recent decades.     

THE CREATION AND DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

In this study, we review the literature on the creation and diffusion of innovation in the private sectors (industry and services) in developing countries. In particular, we collect evidence on what are the barriers to innovation creation and diffusion and the channels of innovation diffusion to and within developing countries. We find that innovation in developing countries is about creation or adoption of new ideas and technologies; but the capacity for innovation is embedded in and constituted by dynamics between geographical, socio‐economic, political and legal subsystems. We contextualize the findings from the review in the current theoretical framework of diffusion of innovations, and we emphasize how the institutional context typical of developing countries impacts the diffusion itself.     

THE ROLE OF LAW IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A LITERATURE REVIEW

Abstract Compared with other explanatory variables, such as capital accumulation, technological innovations, geographical endowments, economic openness, and cultural factors, institutions, especially legal institutions have been regarded as a crucial condition for economic growth in recent years. The importance of legal rules is systematically revealed by a series of cross‐country econometric studies conducted by La Porta et al., who claim that legal origins are central to understanding the divergence in living standards across the regions and countries of the world and, compared with civil law countries, especially those countries with French civil law tradition, common law countries have enjoyed superior economic outcomes. The controversies set off by La Porta et al.'s proposition indicate that there are a number of questions that are difficult to explain by La Porta et al.'s theory, and hence call for more work on comparative analysis of different legal families before a consensus can be reached.     

TRANSITION OF THE HOUSING SECTOR IN THE EAST CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The fall of socialism in 1989–1990 led to the end of the East European housing model, which was based on the limitation of property rights, extensive central planning and politically determined allocation of subsidies. This paper aims to present a clear picture of the current housing situation through a reliable information system. The major observation is that in the countries studied, the housing situation is relatively good; it is not housing shortage, but die inefficiency of the institutional system, affordability and deferred maintenance that are the main problems. Based on the idea of "enabling policies" - policies that facilitate the activities of the key stakeholders in the sector while providing an essential element of the social safety net - the paper establishes the goals and objectives that should guide the formulation of policy and institutional reforms within the sector, and defines priorities for actions to be taken by national and local governments and by international agencies in support of governments.     

A PANEL DATA APPROACH FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION: MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF HONG KONG WITH MAINLAND CHINA

We propose a simple‐to‐implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy. The basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross‐sectional units to construct the counterfactuals. The cross‐sectional correlations are attributed to the presence of some (unobserved) common factors. However, instead of trying to estimate the unobserved factors, we propose to use observed data. We use a panel of 24 countries to evaluate the impact of political and economic integration of Hong Kong with mainland China. We find that the political integration hardly had any impact on the growth of the Hong Kong economy. However, the economic integration has raised Hong Kong's annual real GDP by about 4%. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EVIDENCE ON THE IMPACT OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. When looking across higher quality econometric studies that control for the endogeneity of tariffs, only a couple of studies have statistically significant results, and these suggest that employment is likely to decrease slightly in the short run following trade liberalization. This is consistent with the notion that there are winners and losers from trade policy reform. These results are in contrast with the CGE findings, which by design incorporate projections of the medium‐run economy‐wide knock‐on effects suggested by economic theory. The synthesis of CGE studies suggests non‐negative effects of trade liberalization on aggregate employment and moderate inter‐sectoral labour reallocation effects.     

ESTIMATING THE INNOVATION FUNCTION FROM PATENT NUMBERS: GMM ON COUNT PANEL DATA

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the patent equation, an empirical counterpart to the ‘knowledge-production function’. Innovation output is measured through the number of European patent applications and the input by research capital, in a panel of French manufacturing firms. Estimating the innovation function raises specific issues related to count data. Using the framework of models with multiplicative errors, we explore and test for various specifications: correlated fixed effects, serial correlations, and weak exogeneity. We also present a first extension to lagged dependent variables. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

REAL‐TIME DATA AND FISCAL POLICY ANALYSIS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data. This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments; (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle and (4) the use of real‐time fiscal data in structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. It emerges that, first, fiscal revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Secondly, strong fiscal rules and institutions lead to more accurate releases of fiscal data and smaller deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Thirdly, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘counter‐cyclical’ when real‐time data are used instead of ex post data. Fourthly, real‐time data can be useful for the identification of fiscal shocks. Finally, it is shown that existing real‐time fiscal data sets cover only a limited number of countries and variables. For example, real‐time data for developing countries are generally unavailable. In addition, real‐time data on European countries are often missing, especially with respect to government revenues and expenditures. Therefore, more work is needed in this field.     

REAL‐TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA REVISIONS

We examine how the accuracy of real‐time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest‐available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple‐vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LITERATURE OF FINANCE AND GROWTH

Abstract.  This paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth. The survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables. Although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact, there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies. Several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted. The paper also points to several directions for future research.