Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries

This paper provides some empirical evidence on one of the most controversial theoretical implications of the new open economy literature, which refers to the role of the current account in the international monetary transmission mechanism. In order to throw some light on this issue, two structural VAR models are estimated separately for 14 industrialized countries. The main empirical results highlight the importance of the role of nominal disturbances for current account fluctuations. Additionally, it is found that expansionary nominal shocks generate temporary current account surpluses, whose size is positively correlated with the openness of the individual countries. JEL no. C32, E40, F41, F42     

Exchange rate shocks and the current account under monopolistic competition: An intertemporal optimization model

This paper examines the current-account effect of a devaluation in a Chamberlinian model where both saving and investment are based on intertemporal optimization. It shows that devaluation tends to deteriorate the current account along the time horizon, leading to a reduction of the stock of foreign assets permanently. In contrast to recent work, these real effects do not rely on short-run disequilibrium in the goods or labor market. Besides, a temporary devaluation may generate hysteresis effects on both micro- and macro-economic aspects of a small economy.     

Oil price shocks and Japanese macroeconomic developments

Using quarterly data for Japan over the period 1976:I–2008:II within a modelling strategy incorporating information about structural breaks in the variables included to represent the macroeconomic transmission channels, this paper shows that oil price shocks led to a fall in industrial production and higher inflation. However, these effects are only evident in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In more recent episodes of sharp oil price increases, inflationary effects are barely visible, and there is very limited evidence of oil‐induced industrial slowdowns.     

An integration of short run neokeynesian analysis and growth theory

Summary The paper provides a synthesis of short run Neo-Keynesian theory and long run growth models. The general approach is illustrated with the analysis of the short run and long run effect of changes in government spending when government budget deficits and surpluses are bond-financed. Such pure fiscal policy actions are shown to have long run effects on real variables even in a full employment model. The stability properties of the model turn out to depend crucially on the speed of adjustment of inflationary expectations.This paper is based on my Ph.D. DissertationTemporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium. The advice and help of James Tobin, Gary Smith and Katsuhito Iwai are gratefully acknowledged. I have also benefitted from discussions with Gregory Chow. The detailed and wide-ranging comments of Dr. Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert and Dr. S. K. Kuipers on earlier drafts of this paper were most valuable, both as regards substance and form.Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University.     

Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries

Although the euro area is not one of the major players in current global imbalances, the rebalancing of the current global imbalances is coupled with a significant appreciation of the euro against. In this paper, I present estimations of trade equations for individual euro area countries using a vector error correction model. Each euro area member has got a different trade elasticity, in the short as well as in the short run. Results show that exchange rate innovations affect individual euro area countries at different rates, complicating the response of the euro area’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.

Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes, focusing on saving rates and current account balances. The econometric investigation based on the panel VAR model shows substantial demographic effects on national saving rates and current account balances in the major advanced (G-7) countries. An increase in the dependency rate significantly lowers saving rates, especially public saving rates. Further, a higher dependency rate significantly worsens current account balances.     

现阶段的高房价与宏观调控效应分析

近年来,我国房地产业快速发展,在成为国民经济支柱产业的同时,也呈现出很多突出的问题。本文通过对在调控声中逆势上升的高房价问题进行了深入的剖析,认为:加强宏观调控,规范利益格局,是现阶段房地产市场健康发展的理性选择。     

Monetary unification and the price of risk: An unconditional analysis

In this paper, the standard International Arbitrage Pricing Theory is used to assess the effects of European monetary unification on the functioning of the European financial market. In particular, the focus is on the effects that unification may have had on the risk-sharing capacity of the financial markets. It is found that, already in the ERM decade, exchange rate changes do not (unconditionally) correlate strongly with financial market movements across countries. Consequently, elimination of exchange rate variability through monetary unification is not likely to have major implications for the pricing behavior in EMU. JEL no. G12, G15     

Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999

This paper investigates aggregate price shocks on financial stability in the United Kingdom. We construct an annual index of UK financial conditions for 1790-1999 and use a dynamic probit model to estimate the effect of shocks on the index. We find evidence that price level shocks contributed significantly to financial instability during 1820-1931 and that inflation rate shocks contributed to instability during 1931-1999. While affecting the stability of the financial system, both the nature of aggregate price shocks and their impact depend on the existing monetary and financial regime.     

Reassessing the role of buffer stock money under oil price shocks

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive approach to assess the significance of buffer stock money under alternative real shocks in the U.S. economy over the 1960–96 period. Buffer stock effects are shown to play a minor role when oil price shocks are explicitly considered.     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia

Financial globalisation has been associated with divergent current account patterns in emerging markets. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining different current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia. We find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets’ ability to borrow abroad. The degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs as well as the extent of reserve accumulation are found to be the most significant factors to explain divergent current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia.     

Elasticity of demand for relative petroleum inventory in the short run

To better understand petroleum markets, the authors established the importance of the deviation of inventory levels away from a normal level, where the normal level is comprised of seasonal movement and a general trend. Since supply and demand for petroleum are less elastic to price in the short run than is inventory, it is this deviation or relative inventory level that plays the role of absorbing unexpected shifts in demand and supply. They demonstrated theoretically that the demand for relative inventory must be negatively related to price. They estimated the relative inventory levels and associated short-run price elasticity for several OECD countries and groups of countries, and found that short-run price elasticity of demand for relative inventory is negative and statistically significant, supporting the theoretical arguments.This work is partially sponsored by the Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S. Department of Energy, and was presented at the Fifty-Second International Atlantic Economic Conference, Paris, France, March 2002.     

Enterprise responses to price and output shocks in transitioning economies: The case of the Czechoslovak machine-building sector

The behavior of a sample of 161 state-owned, Czechoslovak machine-building enterprises for the period 1985–89 is examined by means of simulation techniques based on the estimated dynamic factor demand equations. The simulations of input utilization for 1990–92 indicate that the state-owned firms have been less responsive to market signals and to output changes during the transition period of 1990–92 than they were in 1985–89. This may reflect either a change in decision-making regime at the firm level or the magnitude of changes in prices and output levels that occurred in 1990–92. We also find that the output shocks were much more important for the changes in input utilization during the transition than were input price shocks. The research results reported here are part of a World Bank project on enterprise behavior in transition. The results and conclusions are solely the responsibility of the authors and in no way represent the views of the World Bank or of their respective employers.     

Inflation in developing Asia: pass‐through from global food and oil price shocks

The world economy experienced a sharp spike in food and oil prices during 2007 and 2008. In light of developing Asia's dependence on imported oil and food, we can expect higher global food and oil prices to result in higher domestic consumer prices in the region. However, the actual impact of the global commodity shocks on consumer price inflation in developing Asia depends on a number of other factors, including government policy measures. The objective of this paper is to examine empirically the extent of the pass‐through of global food and oil prices to domestic consumer prices in nine countries in the region. The main empirical result is that the magnitude of the pass‐through has been limited. Government policy measures, for example, subsidies and price controls, played a role in reducing or delaying the pass‐through of oil and food price increases to domestic prices.     

Oil price increases and the structure of small open economies

Zusammenfassung ?lpreiserh?hungen und die Struktur kleiner offener Volkswirtschaften. - Auf der Grundlage von Simulationen des Anpassungsprozesses nach dem zweiten ?lpreisschock in vier OECD-L?ndern wird ein internationaler Vergleich angestellt. Dabei zeigt sich, da▾ die Strukturunterschiede hinsichtlich der ?labh?ngigkeit, der Arbeitsintensit?t der Produktion, der technologischen Disparit?ten zwischen den Sektoren und der Zusammensetzung des Konsumgüterbündels dazu führen, da▾ die Auswirkungen auf Besch?ftigung und Produktion von Land zu Land unterschiedlich sind. Die positiven Wirkungen von Reallohnsenkungen sind ebenfalls von Land zu Land verschieden stark. Ein verh?ltnism?▾ig kleiner ?ffentlicher Sektor erweist sich als ein Vorteil bei der Bew?ltigung von ?lpreisschocks.

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Résumé Accroissements de prix pétrolier et la structure des économies petites et ouvertes. - L’auteur fait une comparaison internationale qui se base sur des simulations du processus d’ajustement dans quatre pays OCDE après le deuxième choc de prix pétrolier. Il est démontré que des différences en structure comme ceux en dépendance pétrolière, intensité de main d’∄uvre dans la production, disparités technologiques entre des secteurs aussi bien que les différences dans la composition de la consommation - sont responsables des différences entre des pays concernant les effets sur l’emploi et la production. Les effets positifs des réductions de salaire réel diffèrent aussi en intensité entre des pays. Un secteur publique relativement petit est regardé comme avantage pour résoudre les problèmes après des chocs de prix pétrolier.

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Resumen Alzas del precio del petróleo y la estructura de peque?as economías abiertas. - Se lleva a cabo una comparación internacional basada en simulaciones del proceso de ajuste en cuatro países de la OECD depués del segundo shock del petróleo. Se demuestra que diferencias en la estructura, como el grado de dependencia del petróleo, la intensidad de trabajo de la producción, las disparidades tecnológicas entre los sectores y la composición de la canasta de consumo tienen efectos sobre el empleo y el producto que se diferencian internacionalmente. Los efectos positivos de una reducción del nivel del salario real también varían internacionalmente en cuanto a su intensidad. Un sector público relativamente peque?o resulta favorable para enfrentar a los shocks de precio del petróleo.

     

The impact of oil price shocks and exchange rate changes on import demand elasticities

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkung von ?lpreis-Schocks und Wechselkurs?nderungen auf die Elastizit?t der Importnachfrage.—Man kann zeigen, da? ?lpreisSchocks und Wechselkurs?nderungen die Elastizit?t der Nachfrage nach Nicht-?l-Importen über ihre Auswirkung auf das Realeinkommen und die Zusammensetzung der Gesamtimporte beeinflussen. Insbesondere ist es wahrscheinlich, da? ein steigender ?lpreis und ein sinkender Wechselkurs Preis- und Einkommenselastizit?ten erh?hen und umgekehrt. Diese theoretischen Schlu?folgerungen werden empirisch durch Daten aus den USA gestützt. Sowohl die Einkommensals auch die Preiselastizit?t der Importnachfrage nach Produkten au?er Erd?l stiegen nach dem ersten ?lpreis-Schock stark an und fielen dann wieder mit der hohen Dollaraufwertung im Jahre 1980.

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Résumé L’effet des chocs du prix pétrolier et les variations des taux de change sur les élasticités de la demande de l’importation.—Dans cette étude, il est montré que les chocs du prix pétrolier et les variations des taux de change se répercutent sur les élasticités de la demande de l’importation non-pétrolière via leur effet sur le revenu réel et via la composition des importations totales. En particulier, l’augmentation du prix pétrolier et la baisse du taux de change peuvent élever les élasticités de prix et de revenu et vice versa. On a affirmé ces conclusions théoriques par une analyse empirique avec des données pour les Etats Unis. Tous les deux, l’élasticité de revenu et de prix de la demande d’importation non-pétrolière, augmentent drastiquement après le premier choc du prix pétrolier et tombent après la forte réévaluation du dollar en 1980.

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Resumen El impacto de shocks del precio de petróleo y de movimientos de la tasa de cambio sobre las elasticidades de demanda de importaciones.—Los shocks del precio de petróleo y los movimientos en la tasa de cambio pueden afectar a las elasticidades de demanda de importaciones exceptuando el petróleo, através de su impacto sobre el ingreso real y la composición de las importaciones totales. En particular, un precio de petróleo en aumento y una tasa de cambio en descenso probablemente aumentarian las elasticidades-precio e -ingreso y viceversa. Estas conclusiones teóricas son confirmadas empíricamente con datos de los EE UU. Ambas elasticidades, ingreso y precio, de la demanda de importaciones exceptuando el petróleo aumentan drásticamente después del primer shock del precio de petróleo y después disminuyen otra vez con la fuerte revaluation del dólar en 1980.

     

Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model

This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. The importance of shocks to monetary policy and oil prices is estimated to have declined in the post-1990 period, in line with the higher predictability of policy and the fall in the persistence and—to a lesser extent—variability of oil disturbances. Counterfactual exercises show that oil efficiency gains would alleviate the inflationary and contractionary consequences of oil shocks, while higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of larger inflationary pressures. While we report evidence of “countercyclical” price markups, the rise in markups induced by an oil disturbance is not found to considerably amplify the inflationary and contractionary effects of the shock. The paper discusses the policy implications of our empirical results for the euro area economy.