Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.     

Local niche planning and its strategic implications for implementation of energy-efficient technology

It is widely recognised that the world is facing climate challenges that necessitate transitions towards more energy-efficient buildings. A key challenge is that visions of energy efficient buildings in policies often fail to become aligned with existing local practices. In order to overcome such a gap between policy visions and their implementation in practice specific forms of strategic work is needed, according to new transformative ideas in spatial planning. The aim of this paper is to characterize the transformative capacities of this kind of strategic work at the spatial scale of the town in order to assess how such activities engage with sustainable transitions. The theoretical contribution of the paper is to compare strategic work performed in transformative forms of spatial planning with the strategic work intended in strategic niche management, which represent a change-management process for enabling transitions. The study outlines the proactive spatial planning of a Danish local authority in order to illustrate how the strategic work performed in this kind of local development project represents a special form of niche management that is able to create room for innovation and challenge existing socio-technical regimes in the building sector, but still different to typical strategic niche management processes. Based on this empirical study, the paper challenges the narrow focus on niches around technology development processes in strategic niche management by pointing towards niche planning in local development projects as another relevant context for niche management. However, as discussed in the paper, this assumes a more strategic form of planning than is often practised today, where more emphasis is put on how planning can contribute to promoting sustainable transitions.     

Cities mediating technological transitions: understanding visions,intermediation and consequences

Approaches to technological transitions and their management have generated considerable interest in academic and policy circles in recent years. The development of this body of work may be seen as a response to the complexities, uncertainties and problems which confront many western societies, in organising ‘sustainably’ various aspects of energy, agricultural, water, transport and health systems of production and consumption; problems which are seen as systemic and entwined or embedded in a series of social, economic, political, cultural and technological relationships. For all the light that transitions approaches shine on such processes they say little explicitly about the role of places. In this paper we address this through looking at the way in which London is currently beginning to shape a systemic transition in its energy infrastructure. We outline and discuss key aspects of the roles of strategic intermediary organisations, which have been strategically set up to intervene between technological possibilities and the territorial context of London. We draw on the case of London to highlight an emblematic example of a city's attempt to systemically re-shape its energy infrastructure and the lessons to be drawn from this. We also outline the particularity of London in this respect, the limitations of the transferability of experiences in London and highlight directions for future research in this area.     

东盟区域旅游可持续发展战略研究

在经济全球化、区域经济一体化日益加强的背景下,区域旅游价值的研究与实践具有重要的时代意义与应用前景.区域旅游是东盟地区旅游业可持续发展的重要依托.在旅游发展过程中,东盟各成员国的参与呈现出良好的趋势.文章分析了本地区区域旅游战略框架构成体系,包括东盟旅游发展目标、区域旅游发展原则、区域旅游评价体系及修正体系,总结了东盟旅游发展现状,并从可持续发展的视角提出了区域旅游发展策略:包括建立东盟无国界旅游圈;加强本地区旅游品牌建设;加强东盟区域内合作与磋商,建立健全本地区应对各种危机的合作机制;并提出了致力于本地区旅游资源低碳化的开发与利用策略.本文基于旅游可持续发展观念的分析,为研究区域跨界旅游合作机制提供了一个新的视角.     

Marginal value-based pricing of additional spectrum assigned to cellular telephony operators

This paper deals with the development of a framework for estimating the spectrum price when additional spectrum is assigned to cellular telephony operators. Pricing is based on the spectrum marginal value and expresses the cost savings achieved over infrastructure via the use of the additional spectrum. The resulting values reflect the economic/engineering value of the spectrum and do not take account of its strategic value.     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of strategic conversation quality

This study examines the construct of strategic conversation in a scenario planning context. After defining key terms and a conceptual framework for the strategic conversation, this study presents data gathered from individual participants in a scenario planning project. Data concerning perceptions of strategic conversation skills were collected pre-and post-scenario planning project, and then compared with a standard t-test. Conclusions are drawn and limitations are presented and discussed in depth. Recommendations for improving this research in future studies are also identified.     

主体功能区划规划的“反规划”内涵探析

主体功能区划,旨在通过资源环境承载能力、发展潜力、可开发程度的评价将国土空间进行战略性、基础性规划,以期能在全国范围内规范空间开发秩序,形成合理的开发结构,从而实现人口、资源、环境以及城乡、区域协调发展。文章分析阐述了主体功能区划规划蕴涵的＂反规划＂思想和内容。     

Futures-oriented municipal planning

Amid the current political and economic uncertainties, the long-term perspective in municipal planning in Sweden has been shortened and planning has become more like crisis management. This paper presents a model for municipal futures studies that may contribute toward development of a municipal planning system that can adapt itself to different types of sudden change while still taking long-term welfare goals and resource conservation issues into consideration.So far, models in futures studies have been largely developed to study global and national development. The article therefore places special emphasis on the methodological issues of developing a model for municipal futures studies. The aim of the model is to increase strategic thinking by planners and decision-makers; it requires that futures studies and conventional planning activities be closely integrated.The model is in the process of implementation in the municipality of Västerås. Some features of the model will also be integrated into a futures study of urban housing to be undertaken in the municipality of Umeå.     

Strategic Planning for High-Tech Product Development

A three-questionnaire DELPHI management issues study of technology management problems identifies the top 24 technology management problems of advanced-technology product companies. These problems are ranked in order of importance. Strategic planning for technology products is found to be the dominant problem. A striking theme of the findings is the extent to which several of the twenty four issues are related to this dominant problem. Arguably, not only is strategic planning the top technology management problem of product development in high-tech companies but it is also the cornerstone problem. Dealing effectively with this top problem will require attention to aspects of several others of the management problems. This article first examines the area of strategic planning in advanced-technology product development. It then summarizes the DELPHI study's findings and explores the central role among these findings of strategic planning for technology products. The next 10 problems in importance then are examined in the context of their relationship to the top issue of strategic planning for technology products.     

Strategic Planning for High-Tech Product Development

A three-questionnaire DELPHI management issues study of technology management problems identifies the top 24 technology management problems of advanced-technology product companies. These problems are ranked in order of importance. Strategic planning for technology products is found to be the dominant problem. A striking theme of the findings is the extent to which several of the twenty four issues are related to this dominant problem. Arguably, not only is strategic planning the top technology management problem of product development in high-tech companies but it is also the cornerstone problem. Dealing effectively with this top problem will require attention to aspects of several others of the management problems. This article first examines the area of strategic planning in advanced-technology product development. It then summarizes the DELPHI study's findings and explores the central role among these findings of strategic planning for technology products. The next 10 problems in importance then are examined in the context of their relationship to the top issue of strategic planning for technology products.     

Commercial use of GM crop technology: Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework

The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.     

从可持续增长到可持续价值创造

许多企业将销售收入的持续增长视为其首当其冲的第一要务,但是可持续增长并不必然促成可持续价值创造,即使是快速的“可持续增长”也是如此。因此,企业不应该首先确定销售增长目标,相反,销售增长应该是追求股东价值最大化目标的结果。企业要实现股东价值最大化,除了要保证销售收入的增长外,还必须使得企业的经营利润率高于保值经营利润率,并努力使这一状态持续更为长久的时间。     

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

Impacts of transportation infrastructure on single-family property values

New or long-standing public infrastructure such as highways, airports, and ports of entry (POE) can increase adjacent property values generating a value premium for private developers and adjacent property owners. States and local governments aim to determine the geographic footprint and anticipate the economic value created by transportation infrastructure proximity and accessibility since it represents an opportunity to capture some infrastructure costs. Hence, it is desirable to understand the degree of correlation between transportation infrastructure proximity and changes in real property values in a spatial context particularly when defining economic development zones where transportation investments are planned and where governments expect to recover some of the infrastructure cost from increases in real property values. This research applies geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis to determine the geographic footprint and quantify the impacts of transportation infrastructure proximity and accessibility on real property values in El Paso, Texas using a 2013 cross-sectional data set. The presence of spatial nonstationarity and heterogeneity confirms that transportation infrastructure proximity and accessibility might generate premiums on real property values, but that such premiums are not always positive and are occasionally negative. GWR shows that benefits from a transportation facility can be capitalized by non-adjacent parcels. Finally, GWR maps can help better policy development by estimating how much value is added by infrastructure proximity and accessibility throughout particular locations.     

Transaction costs,collective action and adaptation in managing complex social–ecological systems

With the escalating uncertainties and surprises faced in responding to environmental and natural resource challenges has come growing recognition of the need to manage such issues as social–ecological systems and value the capacities that enable adaptation to these changes. Adaptations in environmental management often involve complex, including wicked, problems of collective action. Institutions introduced to reduce the transaction costs of solving these problems do not come for free.A cost effectiveness framework designed to provide a comprehensive and logical structure for economic evaluation of path dependent institutional choices in this context, and a procedure for boundedly rational empirical application of the framework, are proposed and illustrated in this article — including for the choice between water buy-back and infrastructure upgrade programmes for accumulating the ‘environmental water’ needed to sustain the ecosystems of Australia's Murray–Darling Basin. Also outlined is a research strategy designed to help identify the heuristics needed for application of this procedure.     

空间外部性视角下的地方政府支出策略互动模式

运用空间面板计量方法研究了分税制改革以来中国地方政府支出的策略互动模式。结果表明,基本建设、文教科卫和预算外支出具有显著的空间自相关性,表现出策略互补,行政管理支出则由于地方财力情况的差异形成策略替代,效益外溢性、财政竞争机制和标尺效应在其中交替发挥了主导作用。财政收支分权对支出策略互动模式的影响效果并不一致,扩张支出分权将加剧以基建支出为主的地方政府竞争。财政分权的改革方向是使地方政府在一定程度上拥有收入自主权,中央适当上收具有强烈区域外溢性的公共品供给责任,降低地方非正式收支自主权,从制度层面营造地区间协调有序的竞争关系。     

全球第三代科技园区的出现及启示

全球科技园区正出现向第三代科技园区发展的动向。第三代科技园区是在继承前两代科技园区优点的基础上,顺应内外部环境的变革趋势,基于知识生态理念,以人才为引领、以创造力为核心,强调社区和城市融合,突出网络创新的新科技园区发展模式。通过比较分析认为,与第一代科技园突出科技推动,第二代科技园区强调市场拉动不同,第三代科技园区是在区域融合背景下进行创新发展的。以此为基础,从规划布局、人才发展、基础设施、知识生态、环境建设及政府角色等方面,对我国发展第三代科技园区提出了建议。     

Expanding the two wings of social capital for value creation: strategic entrepreneurship of HTC, 1997–2008

This study draws on a historical, qualitative case study to explore how a leading Taiwanese high-tech mobile phone manufacturer, HTC, successfully and continuously manoeuvred the two wings of social capital – that is, structural social capital and cognitive social capital – to create value in its strategic entrepreneurial process between 1997 and 2008. Taiwan is a wide-spreading trust-based Chinese Confucian-influenced culture. The process of developing trust-based social capital for value creation consists of three central actions: identifying potential social capital, reinforcing cognitive social capital, and extending structural social capital. Our findings advance knowledge of trust-based social capital based on the perspective of strategic entrepreneurship for value creation and offer practical implications for the mobilisation of social capital. In sum, we suggest that firms could develop trust-based social capital considering business conditions to reduce possible risks or uncertainties of network management in an international arena.     

基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价方法

基础设施建设以及开发环境涉及的不确定性是政府或投资者关注的核心问题之一。实物期权方法是解决不确定性问题的一个有效途径,云理论对于不确定性有更准确的描述。首先,结合实物期权理论及云理论,建立了基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价模型,可以更准确地描述项目的期望与风险程度;其次,结合基础设施建设项目特征,用正态云模型的期望、熵和超熵表示期望现金流现值和投资成本,得到实物期权价值计算方法;最后,通过实际案例分析,验证了方法的有效性,并提出了未来研究的方向与建议。