Shaping user-side innovation through standardisation: The example of ICT

This paper looks at the relations that exist between standardisation and user-side innovation in ICT. Some necessary background information are followed by a discussion of how standards and user-side innovations are shaped. A mutual influence between standardisation and innovation can be identified. To avoid the emergence of standards that are beneficial only for a handful of users a co-ordinated representation of users in standards setting is suggested.     

信息技术对经济高质量发展的影响——兼论从模仿创新到自主创新

遵循新发展理念,构建基于“双循环”发展新阶段的中国经济发展质量指标体系,通过测算2003-2017年中国经济发展质量综合指数及信息通讯技术（InformationandCommunicationTechnology,简称ICT）生产性资本存量,运用中介效应、动态门槛效应模型对ICT资本结构变化点及其推动经济高质量发展的影响机制进行分析。研究发现：ICT资本深化作用明显,ICT资本每增加1%,经济发展质量将提升2.8%~3.6%;从传导机制看,技术扩散效应、人才配置效应和自主研发效应是ICT资本推动经济高质量发展的重要渠道。其中,技术扩散和人才配置起非线性调节作用,随着技术扩散和人才配置越过门槛值,ICT资本对经济发展质量的影响呈现出倒U型特征,但人才配置位于倒U型左侧。该结论表明,当技术扩散越过对经济发展质量正向影响的临界值时,ICT资本积累将成为经济发展质量阻碍因素。通过揭示中国经济亟需从模仿创新向自主创新转换的内在逻辑,为促进内循环经济投资及经济高质量发展提供有益参考。     

网络视角下中国各地区创新过程效率研究:基于我国八大经济区的比较

创新效率问题是学术界关注的焦点.本文从解剖创新过程中的要素流动机理出发,揭示了创新过程的网络化特征,并通过构建网络DEA模型,测算了创新过程整体效率、创新资源转换效率与创新知识转化效率.以我国八大经济区为研究对象发现:创新资源转换与创新知识转化效率的主要影响因素不同,前者受到R&D人员区域分布结构影响,后者受到各地区经济发展水平差异的影响;区域创新过程整体效率与创新知识转化效率高度相关;区域创新整体效率与创新知识转化效率在样本期间稳步上升;整体效率与创新知识转化效率出现地区追赶的收敛现象,创新资源转换阶段是整体效率发散的隐患.     

创新价值链视角下的区域创新活动收敛分析

基于创新价值链视角,将我国创新活动分为知识创新、科研创新、产品转化创新3个阶段,运用空间面板收敛模型对各类创新活动进行收敛检验,研究结果显示：①空间自回归因子和扰动项的空间滞后因子对创新增长率有显著正向影响,说明创新水平增长在地区间具有显著的空间效应,存在空间示范效应和外生冲击传递效应,同时空间面板模型拟合效果整体上优于普通面板模型,说明我国创新活动收敛中有必要考虑空间因素;②知识创新和知识转化创新水平存在稳定的绝对β收敛,科研创新水平不存在收敛,通过基尼系数时序图验证了我国科研创新活动存在“马太效应”,另外两类创新活动水平则朝着收敛的趋势发展;③高校资源、市场化水平分别对知识创新和产品转化创新收敛有显著促进作用,信息化水平对三大创新活动收敛都有显著的促进作用。     

ICT and resilience in times of crisis: evidence from cross-country micro moments data

ABSTRACT

ICT-intensive firms are often found to have a better performance than their non-ICT-intensive counterparts. Along with investing in ICT capital they have to adapt their production and business processes in order to reap the potentials implied by the use of ICT. Are these firms also more resilient in times of crisis? We study this question by exploiting a novel and unique data set from the Micro Moments Database. Covering 12 countries, 7 industries and the period from 2001 to 2010, the data allow us to distinguish between ICT-intensive and non-ICT-intensive firms within industries. We find evidence that indeed during the crisis in 2008 and 2009, ICT-intensive firms were hit less hard with respect to their productivity. This holds in particular for firms from service industries. Moreover, ICT-intensive firms were also more successful in introducing process innovations during that period which could explain their better productivity performance compared to non-ICT intensive firms.     

Challenge to ICT manpower planning under the economic restructuring: Empirical evidence from MNCs in Singapore and Taiwan

The study evaluates the issues related to the manpower planning for developing the information, communication and technology (ICT) industry under the economic restructuring in Singapore and Taiwan. Using data collected from 211 multinational companies (MNCs) operating in these two countries, we measured recruitment difficulty and attrition rate experienced by MNCs, and evaluate the extent of ICT skill shortages among the companies surveyed. We found some impact of the nation-pushed ICT manpower planning and development on easing the recruitment difficulty overall at firm level. However, a high attrition rate especially of the low-medium ICT professionals identified in this study may be related to an imbalanced approach taken by the governments to focus on developing high level of science and technology and ICT skills. Implications to the two countries examined and other latecomer countries such as China, India and Vietnam are discussed.     

Diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside the ICT market: The case of Japan

Under the new information society paradigm that emerged in the 1990s, contrary to its conspicuous achievement as an industrial society, Japan is experiencing a vicious cycle between non-elastic institutions and insufficient utilization of the potential benefits of information and communication technology (ICT).However, a dramatic deployment of mobile telephones with Internet access service such as NTT DoCoMo's i-mode service in the late 1990s provides encouragement that, once the potential is exploited, Japan's institutional systems can effectively stimulate the self-propagating nature of ICT. The rapid deployment of Internet Protocol (IP) mobile service in Japan can be attributed to worldwide advances in the utilization of personal computers (PCs) and the Internet. Thus, a complex technology web triggered by the dramatic advancement of PCs and the Internet and co-evolving diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism has emerged in the global ICT market, particularly in Japan's mobile communication business.The above observations prompt the hypothetical view that, despite a lack of institutional elasticity, recent advances in Japan's IP mobile service deployment can be attributed to a co-evolutionary dynamism between diffusion, substitution and competition inside the ICT market. Thus, policy questions could be how to create such a co-evolutionary dynamism by means of ICT innovation, enriched functions, reduced price and competitive environment.In order to demonstrate the foregoing hypothesis, an empirical analysis of the mechanism co-evolving diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside Japan's ICT market is attempted by utilizing four types of diffusion models identical to respective diffusion dynamics.     

The effects of cash flow and size on the investment decisions of ICT firms: A dynamic approach

This paper examines one of the fastest growing industries in our world today, the ICT industry. We assess the sensitivity of a firm’s investment to a set of financial determinants, by developing a flexible adjustment dynamic model. In particular, we examine the degree to which a firm’s liquidity influences firm investment and whether firm size and firm specialization have any additional implications. Moreover, the effect of the dot-com burst is also considered. For a panel of ICT and non-ICT US companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange, the results reveal the following: (1) all firms are sensitive to the availability of internal funds; (2) investment intensity decreases with firm size; (3) and leverage negatively affects investment for ICT firms.     

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

How big a boost to long run growth can countries expect from the ICT revolution? I use the results of growth accounting and the insights from a two-sector growth model to answer this question. A two-sector rather than a one-sector model is required because of the very rapid rate at which the prices of ICT products have fallen in the past and are expected to fall in the future. According to the two-sector model, the main boost to growth comes from ICT use, not ICT production. Even a country with zero ICT production can benefit via improving terms of trade. I quantify this effect for 15 European and 4 non-European countries, using the EU KLEMS database. The ICT intensity of production (the ICT income share) is much lower in many European countries than it is in the United States or Sweden. Nevertheless the contribution to long run growth stemming from even the current levels of ICT intensity is substantial: about half a per cent per annum on average in these 19 countries. If ICT intensity reached the same level as currently in the U.S. or Sweden, this would add a further 0.2 percentage points per annum to long run growth.     

The determinants of internationalization: Evidence from the Taiwan high technology industry

This paper employs the logit model to explore the relationship between internationalization and its determinants. Using a sample set gathered from 114 high technology firms of Taiwan, which are mostly engaged in original equipment manufacturing, empirical tests of the hypotheses find support that corporate governance, patent counts, and education level of managers had a positive effect on internationalization. Surprisingly, R&D intensity, one of the innovation capitals, had a negative effect on internationalization.     

Determinants of business cycles in small scale macroeconomic models: the German case

We identify measures of shocks to total factor productivity and preferences from two real business cycle models and subject them to Granger causality tests to see whether they can be considered exogenous to other plausible sources of the German business cycle. For West German data from 1960.i to 1989.iv we conclude that our measures of shocks are indeed exogenous. This contrasts with similar studies for other countries that question the exogeneity of either productivity or preference shocks. For the period 70.i to 01.iv we find that M3 Granger causes all of our shock measures. We attribute this to the breaks in our time series associated with the German reunification in 1990 and the European Monetary Union in 1999.Earlier versions of this paper circulate as University of Augsburg economics discussion paper no. 213 and Kiel Institute for World Economics working paper no. 1158, respectively.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

Innovation,product development and market value: evidence from the biotechnology industryinnovation in biotechnology industry

The subject of the paper is financial valuation of firm's knowledge assets and returns to innovation in the biotechnology industry, where such assets appear to play key role in the commercial success of a product. The biotechnology industry is extremely research-intensive, and successful R&D drives profitability. Further, the pharmaceutical product development advances in a number of well-defined stages that allow relatively precise measurement of product development outcomes. The study reports recent biotechnology R&D statistics, and provides estimates of private returns to innovation and product development activity in the biotechnology industry. The conclusions indicate that the financial market recognizes the value of drugs in product development stage, as it expects the innovative knowledge embodied in drug development projects to become marketable products in the future.     

Cyclical industrial dynamics: The case of the global semiconductor industry

In this paper, we focus on firms' cyclical behavior in the global semiconductor industry. We demonstrate that these cyclical dynamics at the industry level differ from both the business cycles at the macro-economic level and the lengthy industrial technology life cycle. We discuss a range of possible causes of those cyclical industrial dynamics, including the general business cycles as well as industry-specific factors. Our study reports three stylized facts in relation to the cyclical industrial dynamics in the global semiconductor industry: first, the industry is more concentrated during the industry cycle downturns; second, the capital investment of the industry as a whole follows a ‘pro-cyclical’ pattern; and third, firms that pursued a ‘counter-cyclical’ capital investment strategy during the industry cycle downturn have reaped rewards during the subsequent cycle period. These facts suggest that cyclical industrial dynamics, especially the industry cycle downturns, play an important role in firm rivalry, strategic positioning and industrial growth.     

Firm selection and industry evolution: the post-entry performance of new firms

A dynamic framework based on the process of firm selection and industry evolution is used to analyse the post-entry performance of new firms. In particular, it is hypothesized that, based on the stylized fact that virtually all new firms start at a very small scale of output, firm growth and survival are shaped by the need to attain an efficient level of output. The post-entry performance of more than 11,000 U.S. manufacturing firms established in 1976 is tracked throughout the subsequent tenyear period. Firm growth is found to be negatively influenced by firm size but positively related to the extent of scale economies, capital intensity, innovative activity, and market growth. By contrast, the likelihood of survival is identified as being positively influenced by firm size, market growth, and capital intensity, but negatively affected by the degree of scale economies in the industry. When viewed through the dynamic framework of firm selection and industry evolution, the empirical results shed considerable light on several paradoxes in the industrial organization literature, such as the continued persistence over time of an asymmetrical firm-size distribution consisting predominantely of suboptimal scale firms, and the failure of capital intensity and scale economies to substantially deter the entry and start-up of new firms.     

基于生态流量的数字创新生态系统演化模式——人工智能行业的探索性研究

构建数字创新生态系统是数字经济时代企业获取竞争优势的重要途径,需要深入把握数字创新生态系统的演化特征与规律.本文将数字创新生态系统中的生态流量分为经济流、技术流和关系流,使用质性文本分析和探索性数据分析方法,对人工智能行业12家上市公司的数字创新生态系统进行了研究,识别了枢纽型数字创新生态系统的经济流主导演化模式和平台型数字创新生态系统的生态流转换演化模式.本文为研究数字创新生态系统演化提供了新的视角和分析框架,也为企业生态化战略实践提供了启示.     

Technological races and stock market value: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

We provide estimates of the abnormal stock market returns associated with pharmaceutical firms’ announcements of technological and regulatory successes in drug development. On the basis of these estimates, we find empirical support for two key features of technological race models. First, we observe that leaders in the innovation race record higher abnormal returns than do latecomers when they announce a success. Hence, firms should indeed be racing to complete the innovation process before their rivals. Second, pharmaceutical firms are adversely affected by the technological and regulatory success of their rivals, implying that interfirm spillovers in drug development are not sufficient to offset technological rivalry. Additional results are also produced regarding the impact of competition on R&D racing and the extent of therapeutic competition.     

An empirical investigation into the gravitation and convergence of industry return rates in OECD countries

Tests are offered for the hypotheses that sectoral average profit rates and incremental return rates are gravitating around or converging towards a common value. We study data for various OECD countries relying on an econometric method able to account for residual autocorrelation and cross‐sector correlation. Our null hypotheses receive only a mixed empirical support. This is interpreted as the result of various kinds of limitations to capital mobility. Policy implications are discussed.     

Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis

This paper assesses the empirical plausibility of the real business cycle view that shocks to real variables are the dominant sources of economic fluctuations and that monetary policy shocks play an insignificant role in determining the behavior of real variables. I reconsider the vector autoregressive model of King et al. (Am Econ Rev 81:819–840, 1991), but propose an alternative identification method, based on graphical causal models. This method selects the contemporaneous causal structure using the information incorporated in the partial correlations among the residuals. The residuals orthogonalization which follows and the study of the impulse response functions confirm the results of King et al. (Am Econ Rev 81:819–840, 1991): permanent productivity shocks are not the dominant sources of aggregate fluctuations in US economy. I would like to thank Peter Spirtes, Marco Lippi, and Clark Glymour for helpful comments on early versions of the paper. I am also grateful to Valentina Corradi for providing me with an updated version of the King et al. (1991) data set. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Driving force from authorities: the evolution of innovation system for biomedical industry in China

Over the past 30 years, China has fully exploited its advantage to steadily foster an innovation system for the biomedical industry with Chinese characteristics, that is, ‘Government-guided, resource-integrated and long-term planning.’ The system originated from historically famous ‘863 program’ in the 1980s, evolved with a series of favourable policies in the different periods, and eventually has taken shape in the industrial clusters across the country. It features with a systematic and integrated R&D infrastructure (or public platform) at different levels. In this study, China’s biomedical innovation system will be examined and the leading role of Chinese authorities will be explored from the perspective of Triple Helix theory. As the ‘highland of innovation’, Shanghai case is highlighted with plentiful information gathered from primary sources in the involved agencies for the first time, including the Shanghai Biopharma Service Platform.