Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use,impacts and the role of institutional context factors

Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making. While methodological approaches are well covered in the academic literature, less attention has been paid to studying the use, impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making. This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature, our preliminary findings highlight that scenario planning still is often executed in a rather ad-hoc and isolated manner and is mostly geared towards indirect decision support such as agenda-setting and issue-framing. The slim evidence base aggravates the assessment, but the potential of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized. Political and institutional context factors need to be treated with greater care in the future. Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty does not only require rigorous analysis, but also political will and more stable institutional settings and organisational capacities to build up trust and experience with adaptive, flexible process formats. We synthesize our analysis with a discussion of further research needs.     

Rethinking a National Innovation System: The Small Country as 'SME'

Most debates and discussions regarding trends towards globalization and localization, occur in the over-arching context of the knowledge economy, and focus on the impact of these trends on innovation and competitiveness in the 'Triad' of Europe, Japan and the USA. However, in the knowledge economy, competitiveness is increasingly based upon access to knowledge, in the form of skills and capabilities, wherever it is located in the world including the smaller industrialized countries. This paper extends the discussion of the impacts of globalization and localization to encompass other nations and their 'national innovation systems'. Policy underpinning national systems to encourage innovation is increasingly being called into question by the general move towards globalization and localization. Multi-national enterprises (MNEs) and localized clusters in the emerging technologies determine and control technological paths beyond and through national borders. Small industrialized nations which have neither a broad technological base, extensive science and technology infrastructure or resources, nor MNEs based in the country, run the risk of being marginalized when competing globally, through an inability to become involved in these international economic networks. A traditional policy response by small countries to the impact of globalization is to metaphorically 'batten down the hatches' against the invasion of MNEs and the exploitation of local resources. However, an exploration of the drivers of both globalization and localization in the knowledge economy, and the observed impacts of globalization on New Zealand, suggests that a suitable strategy for small nations might be the reverse scenario. By using the analogy of the small country as a small and medium sized enterprise (SME) in the global economy dominated by large nations and MNEs, SME advantages and disadvantages are mapped onto potential small country advantages and disadvantages. The simile is extended to propose a small-country strategy based on exploiting the documented advantages of SMEs, such as flexibility and use of external networks, for an outward-looking, supplier-orientated innovation policy. Such a policy has to be designed for rapid communication and flexibility, and has to encourage committed technological accumulation and networking, to maximize national absorptive and transformative capacities.     

Global Technology Policies for Economic Growth

With the end of the Cold War, nations throughout the world are placing ever greater emphasis on economic growth. Over the last 50 years, advances in technology have been the single most important factor in creating growth in many economies, and thus policies to promote technological innovation rank high on the list of priorities for both developed and developing countries. In general, as countries progress up the economic ladder, national R&D intensity, (i.e., R&D/GDP), tends to increase along with per capita income. In addition, nations move through a discernible sequence of technology policies from an initial focus on infrastructure, through a set of actions designed to encourage technology acquisition from more advanced economies, to comprehensive education and research agendas targeted to the creation and development of new technology. In the United States, national technology policy for economic growth focuses on education, building a 21st century infrastructure, and creating a business climate that encourages growth, technological innovation, and risk taking.Throughout the last 50 years there have been significant changes in the competitive position of nations. In recent years, U.S. corporations have regained some of the competitive leadership they lost in the 1980s. This has been accompanied by significantly increased R&D spending by U.S. industry, particularly in the information and health care related sectors. U.S. industry funding of R&D overtook that from the government in the early 1980s and accounts for almost two-thirds of the national total.     

Technology level evaluation methodology based on the technology growth curve

Technology has been the driving force of development for knowledge-based economies. As competition in technology innovation among nations becomes more intense, there is a growing need for improved judgment, evaluation and prediction of scientific technology capacity in order to enhance national competitiveness. Until now, a country's technology level has been evaluated on a relative basis by comparing it with that of the country with the world's best technology. However, this kind of static methodology makes the interpretation of results unclear and makes time series analysis difficult. One of the most important limitations of this methodology is that it cannot be used to establish a strategy to improve the technology level. This paper examines the methodological problems of technology level evaluation and develops a dynamic methodology by applying the technology growth curve model. We also analyze the real technology level by using a new model application and review the relevance of this method. Finally, we discuss how to use the results in order to create a dynamic technology strategy.     

Rethinking a National Innovation System: The Small Country as 'SME'

Most debates and discussions regarding trends towards globalization and localization, occur in the over-arching context of the knowledge economy, and focus on the impact of these trends on innovation and competitiveness in the 'Triad' of Europe, Japan and the USA. However, in the knowledge economy, competitiveness is increasingly based upon access to knowledge, in the form of skills and capabilities, wherever it is located in the world including the smaller industrialized countries. This paper extends the discussion of the impacts of globalization and localization to encompass other nations and their 'national innovation systems'. Policy underpinning national systems to encourage innovation is increasingly being called into question by the general move towards globalization and localization. Multi-national enterprises (MNEs) and localized clusters in the emerging technologies determine and control technological paths beyond and through national borders. Small industrialized nations which have neither a broad technological base, extensive science and technology infrastructure or resources, nor MNEs based in the country, run the risk of being marginalized when competing globally, through an inability to become involved in these international economic networks. A traditional policy response by small countries to the impact of globalization is to metaphorically 'batten down the hatches' against the invasion of MNEs and the exploitation of local resources. However, an exploration of the drivers of both globalization and localization in the knowledge economy, and the observed impacts of globalization on New Zealand, suggests that a suitable strategy for small nations might be the reverse scenario. By using the analogy of the small country as a small and medium sized enterprise (SME) in the global economy dominated by large nations and MNEs, SME advantages and disadvantages are mapped onto potential small country advantages and disadvantages. The simile is extended to propose a small-country strategy based on exploiting the documented advantages of SMEs, such as flexibility and use of external networks, for an outward-looking, supplier-orientated innovation policy. Such a policy has to be designed for rapid communication and flexibility, and has to encourage committed technological accumulation and networking, to maximize national absorptive and transformative capacities.     

Knowledge interaction towards inclusive learning: Promoting systems of innovation and competence building

This paper draws on recent conceptual approaches to economic growth, in which the accumulation of knowledge is the fundamental driving force behind growth. This fact is reflected in the trend in developed economies towards an increasing investment in advanced technology, R&D, education, and culture. Concepts such as learning ability, creativity, and sustained flexibility gain greater importance as guiding principles for the conduct of individuals, institutions, nations, and regions. It is thus legitimate to question the traditional way of viewing the role that contemporary institutions play in the process of economic development and to argue for the need to promote systems of innovation and competence building based on learning and knowledge networks. This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present work, which reviews the strongest themes of the 4th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), which was held in Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil, in August of 2000. Under the broad designation of “learning and knowledge networks,” the conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy, and management in a context much influenced by a dynamics of change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of knowledge. While the idea of inclusive development developed in previous conferences entails a process of shared prosperity across the globe following local specific conditions, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of the process of knowledge accumulation, which drives a learning society. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended contributions to the Curitiba conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of different regional and national contexts. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views for the learning society.     

产业集聚与两阶段区域创新绩效——基于区域技术要素强度门槛的实证研究

基于价值链视角，将区域创新活动分为知识创新阶段和成果转化阶段，使用2009-2020年我国内地30个省级面板数据，以区域技术要素强度为门槛变量，探讨产业集聚对两阶段区域创新绩效的不同影响。研究发现，产业集聚对区域创新绩效的影响在两个阶段具有显著的非线性门槛特征。在知识创新阶段，随着区域技术要素强度提高，产业集聚对区域创新绩效的促进作用呈阶段性增强；在成果转化阶段，当区域技术要素强度提高时，产业集聚对区域创新绩效的影响表现为先抑制后促进。     

The plantation economy as an economic system

The recent literature on plantation economies is surveyed and an attempt is made to test some of the proposed hypotheses and ideas, using a sample of 41 nations around 1960. Four questions form the focus of the analysis: What is a plantation? What are the economic, political, and social forces giving rise to the plantation system of agriculture? What are the impacts of the plantation system on the rest of the economy and society? And what are the forces bringing change to plantation economies?     

State Strategies and the Geopolitics of the Global Knowledge Economy: China,India and the Case of Regenerative Medicine

The global competition between states for position in the uncertain future of the life sciences brings a new dynamic to the intersection between geopolitics and the global knowledge economy. Armed with distinctive approaches to innovation in new health technologies, the emerging economies of China and India are determined to challenge the traditional hegemony of the developed countries in areas such as regenerative medicine where the promised biotechnology future is said to lie. Yet although the political belief that there is a future value for regenerative medicine is global, the precise nature of that future when measured in terms of the path of the science, the market demand, the cultural response, the commercialisation process and its associated business models is obscure. Drawing on theories of the competition and developmental state, I analyse the factors that shape a state's response to the promise of regenerative medicine, the strategies of ‘speculative innovation’ that may be adopted in pursuit of geopolitical advantage in this uncertain field, and the adaptive qualities necessary for a state's effective competition in an age of globalisation. This analysis is then applied to the emerging economies of China and India to assess their geopolitical strategies in regenerative medicine innovation, their current position in this part of the knowledge bioeconomy, and their likely impact on its continuing globalisation.     

Absorptive capacity and firm performance: an integrative framework of benefits and downsides

Research underscores the important role a firm's absorptive capacity plays in developing knowledge, promoting open innovation, managing alliances, facilitating organisational learning, creating strategic variety, and enhancing financial performance. However, prior research often overlooks how absorptive capacity could increase a firm's costs associated with building this capacity, perpetuate and even increase inertia because of reduced variety and limited organisational search, handicap internal knowledge development, and complicate knowledge sharing. Research also ignores the growing complexity of absorptive capacity, a factor that could reduce a firm's gains from exploiting external knowledge. Our discussion builds on the knowledge-based view to provide an integrative framework for the performance effects of absorptive capacity. Based on different benefits and downsides of absorptive capacity at multiple levels of analysis, it points to an inverted U-shaped relationship between absorptive capacity and a firm's financial performance, highlighting several promising avenues for future research.     

协同知识管理研究进展

近年来,协同知识管理是一个新的、值得关注的研究方向,为了加深对协同知识管理的梳理和便于今后对其进行深入研究,在试图对国内外协同知识管理相关研究作比较全面分析的基础上,对协同知识管理未来的发展趋势作了进一步的探讨,指出需要在隐显性知识协同管理模式、协同知识创新资源体系、知识管理的协同效应、知识融合与协同决策等方面作深入研究。     

Can innovation shocks determine CO2 emissions (CO2e) in the OECD economies? A new perspective

ABSTRACT

This study has attempted to address prior knowledge gaps in the environmental economics literature by integrating the innovation shocks into the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) equation for twenty-six OECD economies using data from 1990 to 2014. Foreign direct investment (FDI), exports (EXP), renewable energy consumption (REC), and GDP per capita were included as control variables. The results from multiple empirical analyses indicated that positive shocks to innovation improve, but the negative shocks disrupt environmental quality. Data analyses also showed that a positive correlation exists between income per capita of OECD economies. From the negative coefficient of income per capita (squared) and the existence of a negative nexus between FDI and CO2e, both the EKC and the Pollution Halo Hypothesis (PHH) were confirmed in sampled economies, respectively. The paper offers empirical support for the favourable impacts of REC on the quality of the environment and calls for the adoption of innovation shocks as a policy instrument to formulate better environmental policies for a sustainable future.     

Knowledge investments, business R&D and innovativeness of countries: A qualitative meta-analytic comparison

The relationship between knowledge investments, innovation and competitiveness is an important topic in both academic research and economic policy and has been studied extensively over the past decades. Nowadays, investments in private and public R&D are believed to make up the heart of a modern knowledge economy. The present paper adopts an evolutionary economics perspective and investigates whether, in addition to private R&D activities, also institutional support systems and policy interventions play a role in inducing innovation initiatives and creating impacts on the performance and competitiveness of industries. We aim to find support for the hypothesis that the competitiveness of industries in the international arena is sustained by the dynamic interaction between national, regional and sectoral innovation systems. This may provide stakeholders with a better understanding of the context in which they operate. Since according to the evolutionary metaphor, the growth of an innovation system follows complex dynamics that cannot simply be analysed within a static quantitative equilibrium framework, we use here an alternative approach based on qualitative pattern recognition analysis originating from artificial intelligence analysis. Besides R&D expenditures, human capital expenditures are regarded as the major input in the knowledge creation process in our analytical framework. To this end, in our paper a qualitative causal model that maps out conditional relations between key factors in national innovation systems will be described. The focus of our investigation is on systematic patterns in the competitiveness of the EU Member States, using statistical information on innovation input and output data from the European Innovation Scoreboard. In our analysis we find support for the hypothesis that there are indeed significant interactions between distinct institutional levels, which may provide guidance to the strategic orientation of nations and the European Union in terms of the emphasis on competitiveness vis-à-vis cohesion.     

国家高新区企业创新发展效应再认识

高新区作为有效带动区域经济发展的一类政策工具，受到决策者青睐。国家高新区对我国高技术产业乃至区域创新驱动发展的作用已获得各界共识，但关于其对企业创新发展绩效影响的研究尚不多见。以上海张江示范区为例，按照园区注册企业是否在园区内经营进行分类，从企业和园区两个层面选取变量进行实证分析。结果表明，张江示范区发展存在着只有“高新”而没有“园区”的情况，是否在园区内经营对企业创新发展没有显著影响，园区经营企业甚至在新产品方面表现更逊，企业创新显著受到园区创新政策的影响。国家高新区在发挥优惠政策激励的同时，更需要聚焦于科技成果转化，不断优化创业孵化链条、提升研究机构对区域创新的贡献度、加强园区产学研合作紧密度、建立科学的高新区考评机制，以引导园区健康发展。     

非洲建构自主发展动力体系的新探索——南非本土知识国家战略述评

南非本土知识国家战略系统提出发展本土知识的价值纲领，并从国家教育、创新系统，政府管理机构和运行机制，政策和法律调整框架，人力资源发展和能力建设，信息和研究机构建设等方面，阐明南非发展本土知识的方向和措施，对促进科技创新、知识创新，具有突出的现实意义。同时，就国家层面管理本土知识而言，南非本土知识国家战略是非洲面向新世纪积极建构自主发展动力体系的新探索，将对非洲的发展产生深远的影响。     

“两型社会”的建设与环境法制的创新

建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会（简称＂两型社会＂）是我国国民经济与社会发展中的一项战略任务,是现实的要求和发展的必然。建设两型社会有多条实施路径,而环境法制创新是其中的重要实施路径之一。只有完善环境法立法目的,明确政府环境责任,实现环境诉讼纠纷机制的创新,才能最大限度地控制环境污染,避免资源浪费和生态破坏,实现人与自然的和谐,建设好两型社会。     

R&D efficiency and heterogeneity – a latent class application for the OECD

Expenditures devoted to research and development (R&D) are scarce and thus need to be used as efficiently as possible given the financial constraints countries are facing. This article assesses the relative efficiency of R&D expenditures for 26 OECD member countries and two nonmember countries. As countries differ in their national innovation systems and states of economic development and industrialization, e.g. transition economies in Eastern Europe versus Asian countries versus Anglo-Saxon countries, the measurement of R&D efficiency needs to consider differences in the technology of knowledge production. By means of a latent class model for stochastic frontiers, we relax the assumption of a homogeneous technology frontier and model technological differences in knowledge production among countries. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of different classes stressing the importance of accounting for countries’ disparities within R&D efficiency analysis.     

Innovation,embeddedness and policy: evidence from life sciences in three UK regions

This paper draws upon a survey of the life science and biotechnology regions of Oxford, Central Scotland and South West England to examine the innovation and embeddedness traits of the regions. The insights into the compositional weaknesses and strengths of the regions suggest opportunities and threats for the future development of the UK's life sciences and biotechnology. The discussion moves forward debates on biotechnology, regional innovation, regional economic development and policy by posing research questions relating to the gap of knowledge of two under-researched regions, the need for a differentiated view of regions and a public policy approach tailored towards them, as well as the prospects of ‘engineering’ high-tech regions. Some of the highlighted policy challenges are common to the three regions, while others are region-specific and reflect the variations of regional make-up and stage of development.     

低碳经济发展制约问题研究

低碳经济的发展受自然条件、经济发展阶段、产业技术水平的制约和影响,并需全球范围的国际合作.我国低碳排放技术水平参差不齐、研发和创新能力极为有限,是我国由"高碳"经济向"低碳"转型的最大挑战.因此,在发展低碳经济的同时,立足于基本国情和国家利益,改善与各国政府间及国际组织的合作与协调,改变能源消费方式和人类生活方式,建立现代工业文明,转向生态经济和生态文明,完善配套制度是克服低碳经济发展的必然途径.