Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Systemic analysis of UK foresight results: Joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping

This paper proposes a new systems approach to foresight studies. The paper will first indicate the complex and conflicting nature of long-term decision-making process. Then, the need for systems approach will be highlighted by the analysis of 1995 UK Delphi survey results and the scenarios of 2000 UK foresight scenarios. The paper proposes two methodologies, namely Integrated Management Model (IMM) and Roadmapping, in order to overcome challenges introduced by the multidimensional characteristics and complex nature of foresight studies. Based on systemic approach, IMM offers a useful way of developing long-term normative policies and strategies and their transformations into actions by considering necessary changes in organizational structures and behaviors. In addition, roadmapping is used to capture, manipulate and manage information to decrease complexity in the foresight by constructing roadmaps. In the paper, IMM and roadmapping are employed first to analyze UK foresight results and then to develop a new methodology to formulate Delphi events and scenarios for the successful implementation of foresight. This paper also promotes the integrated use of foresight techniques such as scenarios and Delphi rather than one for another.     

A framework for mapping industrial emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full lifecycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Roadmapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Technology roadmapping in review: A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions

Typically, firms decide whether or not to develop a new product based on their resources, capabilities and the return on investment that the product is estimated to generate. We propose that firms adopt a broader heuristic for making new product development choices. Our heuristic approach requires moving beyond traditional finance-based thinking, and suggests that firms concentrate on technological trajectories by combining technology roadmapping, information technology (IT) and supply chain management to make more sustainable new product development decisions. Using the proposed holistic heuristic methods, versus relying on traditional finance-based decision-making tools (e.g., emphasizing net present value or internal rate of return projections), enables firms to plan beyond the short-term and immediate set of technologies at hand. Our proposed heuristic approach enables firms to forecast technologies and markets, and hence, new product priorities in the longer term. Investments in new products should, as a result, generate returns over a longer period than traditionally expected, giving firms more sustainable investments. New products are costly and need to have a durable presence in the market. Transaction costs and resources will be saved, as firms make new product development decisions less frequently.     

Towards a framework for dynamic technology strategy

This paper attempts to set up a framework for formulating a dynamic technology strategy. Competitive enviroments are increasingly dynamic, and this makes traditional methodologies and approaches to the strategy obsolete or inadequate. Empirical research has been conducted on the technology strategy process of three large companies operating in highly dynamic and technology-intensive environments. On the basis of the results of this, the authors attempte to put forward a framework which should help firms to conceive their technology strategy.     

Towards a framework for dynamic technology strategy

This paper attempts to set up a framework for formulating a dynamic technology strategy. Competitive enviroments are increasingly dynamic, and this makes traditional methodologies and approaches to the strategy obsolete or inadequate. Empirical research has been conducted on the technology strategy process of three large companies operating in highly dynamic and technology-intensive environments. On the basis of the results of this, the authors attempte to put forward a framework which should help firms to conceive their technology strategy.     

Depicting the future strategic plans of the Royal Australian Navy using a roadmapping framework as a visual composite canvas

Strategic planning can be an arduous and complex task; and, once a plan has been devised, it is often quite a challenge to effectively communicate the principal missions and key priorities to the array of different stakeholders. The communication challenge can be addressed through the application of a clearly and concisely designed visualisation of the strategic plan – to that end, this paper proposes the use of a roadmapping framework to structure a visual canvas. The canvas provides a template in the form of a single composite visual output that essentially allows a ‘plan-on-a-page’ to be generated. Such a visual representation provides a high-level depiction of the future context, end-state capabilities and the system-wide transitions needed to realise the strategic vision. To demonstrate this approach, an illustrative case study based on the Australian Government's Defence White Paper and the Royal Australian Navy's fleet plan will be presented. The visual plan plots the in-service upgrades for addressing the capability shortfalls and gaps in the Navy's fleet as it transitions from its current configuration to its future end-state vision. It also provides a visualisation of project timings in terms of the decision gates (approval, service release) and specific phases (proposal, contract, delivery) together with how these projects are rated against the key performance indicators relating to the technology acquisition process and associated management activities.     

对“两个大局”战略思想的经济学解释

20世纪80年代邓小平同志提出了"两个大局"的战略思想,为中国的区域发展政策布局指明了方向。本文建立了一个由中央政府、地方政府和跨国公司组成的博弈模型,试着从经济学角度来解释"两个大局"的科学性。模型指出,在地方政府为经济增长而竞争的情况下,中央政府为了最大化整个国家的经济福利,应该选择外资的外部收益较高地区作为政策优惠对象,而政策倾斜力度需要大到足以使得政策优惠地区不提供任何税收补贴即可赢得外资竞争。相比"东部优先"战略而言,"西部大开发"、"振兴东北"、"中部崛起"等发展战略还需要中央政府提供更大的政策倾斜方能见效。     

Structuring technological information for technology roadmapping: data mining approach

Most research on technology roadmapping has focused on its practical applications and the development of methods to enhance its operational process. Thus, despite a demand for well-supported, systematic information, little attention has been paid to how/which information can be utilised in technology roadmapping. Therefore, this paper aims at proposing a methodology to structure technological information in order to facilitate the process. To this end, eight methods are suggested to provide useful information for technology roadmapping: summary, information extraction, clustering, mapping, navigation, linking, indicators and comparison. This research identifies the characteristics of significant data that can potentially be used in roadmapping, and presents an approach to extracting important information from such raw data through various data mining techniques including text mining, multi-dimensional scaling and K-means clustering. In addition, this paper explains how this approach can be applied in each step of roadmapping. The proposed approach is applied to develop a roadmap of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to illustrate the process practically.     

Towards an integrated framework for analysing sustainable innovation policy

An integrated framework for the analysis of sustainable innovation policy was developed, based on a combination of the transition management (TM) framework, the strategic niche management approach, and policy recommendations, resulting from technological innovation system (TIS) studies. In the framework, the multi-level view from TM has been integrated with the functions approach from the TIS literature. The integrated policy framework shows that specific policy goals and measures can be found at the specific points of intervention related to (the interfaces between) landscape, regime, TIS and niches. The integrated framework suggests that stimulation of a TIS only makes sense when this action is well aligned with landscape and regime developments. The framework should be used in empirical studies for further testing and refinement.     

A visual scanning of potential disruptive signals for technology roadmapping: investigating keyword cluster,intensity, and relationship in futuristic data

Technology roadmapping of today’s era is necessarily based on comprehensive scanning of various signals with the disruptive potential in future paths of market, product, and technology. Previous attempts of data-driven technology roadmaps have mainly focused on data from such sources as patents and literatures. However, as these sources catalogue posteriori trends of evolution, roadmaps based on these data cannot be counted on to predict disruptions. In this regard, futuristic data in technology foresight websites may provide a better source. The objective of this research, in response, is to develop a support system for technology roadmapping that uses futuristic data. To this end, we suggest keyword-based visual scanning approach involving three keyword maps, used in succession: keyword cluster map, keyword intensity map, and keyword relationship map. Particularly, keyword intensity map is designed using weak signal theory which can help identify the visibility, diffusion, and interpretation of signals.     

The economics of the smart card industry: Towards coopetitive strategies

This article uses an explorative case study of the smart card industry where ‘coopetition’ is to be found. We show that the nature of interaction between smart card actors, dealing with industry and market conditions that create a very complex competitive landscape, constitutes a mix of competition and cooperation. Here, we assume that the paradoxical aspect of competition and cooperation [Quinn, R.E. and Cameron, K.S. (1988) Paradox and Transformation. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger] can be juxtaposed in order to understand the strategic phenomena characterizing actors' interactions. Actors cooperate in some activities and compete on other ones. Such strategic behaviour is called coopetitive strategy, which is increasingly adopted by high-tech industry players.     

城市荒野景观及其营造策略：以荷兰实践为例

在国际范围内荒野保护运动持续发展的同时,中国的荒野保护体系正在稳步建立。但随着城市化进程的不断加速,城市中自然荒野空间的开发是不可避免的。如何在不断扩张的城市范围内尽可能保留与规划荒野景观,已经成为国内风景园林设计师关注的问题。在梳理了城市荒野课题相关背景和研究进展后,探索了荷兰的城市荒野实践经验,并选取3个不同尺度和类型的代表性案例,分别对案例的项目背景、设计要点和场地功能进行研究分析,进而提出自然优先、野性保护、控制扰动和公众参与4点原则,并辩证地提取了可指导中国背景下不同尺度城市荒野景观营造的策略,为构建中国荒野体系提供了国际经验。     

Networks and network resources in technological innovation systems: Towards a conceptual framework for system building

Previous research has shown that formal networks can play a crucial role in the formation of technological innovation systems (TIS). Firms and other actors collaborate in formal networks not only to generate new knowledge but also to strategically create and shape supportive system resources such as technology specific R&D programs. This paper takes a closer look at the resources, which are developed and deployed by networks to facilitate the building up of a TIS. Networks rely not only on the organizational resources of their members but also on new resources developed at the network level including network governance structures, trust among network members, a common understanding of the strategic goals or a good reputation of the network. Our analysis shows that the capacity of networks to fulfill different tasks of system building especially depends on the network resources they are able to establish. With the differentiation of organizational, network and system resources we introduce a conceptual framework, which makes three important contributions. It highlights the strategic nature of (innovation) system building; it allows us comparing the contribution of different actors and formal networks in this regard; and it improves our understanding of how firm and system level processes are intertwined.     

走向现代：1980—2010年中国风景园林学 学科蓬勃发展的特征分析

1980—2010年的改革开放30年,中国确立建设社会主义市场经济体制,城市化建设全面发展,为各行业提供了良好的社会经济基础。风景园林学学科在国家政策支持下得以恢复并进入蓬勃发展的黄金时期。通过对改革开放30年来风景园林学学科建设与发展的3个时期进行梳理,总结这一阶段学科发展的4个特征：1)风景园林行业体系逐步规范化;2)风景园林建设项目从传统到现代;3)风景园林设计单位由单一到多元;4)风景园林人才培养蓬勃发展。该时期风景园林学学科发展的影响为2011年正式成为一级学科奠定了重要基础。     

Cross-national and cross-industrial comparison of two strategy approaches for global industrial evolution

This research focuses on analyzing the two prime science and technology (S&T) strategy approaches for industrial evolution based on the concept of S&T gap, namely, the optimist and pragmatist approaches. Particularly, the cases of global IC, pharmaceutical, and computer industries, are used to make cross-national and cross-industrial comparison of these two approaches. The optimist approach is developed based on the product life cycle theory which envisions technology transcending everyday limitations. With this perspective, market demand is the most critical factor in selecting the S&T strategy approaches. The pragmatist approach is formed based on the new trade theory which recognizes the power of science and technology but seeks to fit it into structures that already exist, and government must manage resources pouring into science and technology. Case studies of global IC, pharmaceutical, and computer industries during the 2nd half of the 20th century are used as research targets to reflect policy impacts on the technological evolution. The results of this study reveal that, strategy approaches have to be adapted and turned to the specific stage, technology level, and market segment that have been selected for intervention. This result of comparison also offers the criteria of strategy selection for developing different industry based on distinct national base.     

A hybrid visualisation model for technology roadmapping: bibliometrics,qualitative methodology and empirical study

Technology roadmapping offers a flexible instrument to portray development status in support of technology forecasting and assessment. This paper integrates bibliometrics with qualitative methodologies and visualisation techniques to construct a hybrid model for composing technology roadmaps. The mapping arrays details on the evolution of the technology under study and contributes to understanding the macro-technology development status. We generate a global technology roadmap for electric vehicles to demonstrate the approach in an empirical study.     

Managing academic innovation in Taiwan: Towards a ‘scientific-economic’ framework

Since the passage of the Science and Technology Basic Law in 1999, Taiwanese universities have taken a more “scientific-economic” approach to protect and commercialize their research. This research mainly examines innovation activities such as patenting, licensing, and incubated startups in the context of Taiwanese higher education institutions (HEIs). The “scientific-economic” framework used to analyze the strategic aspects influencing these academic innovations includes (1) intellectual property managerial capabilities, (2) the strength of external industrial partnerships, (3) the university entrepreneurial orientation, and (4) government research policy. Four hypotheses were developed. Data were collected via a questionnaire with all 122 HEIs in Taiwan surveyed.The research reveals that the aspects of intellectual property managerial capability, HEI-industry partnerships, and academic entrepreneurial orientation are useful to distinguish the university's innovation performance on patent grants, licensing incomes, and firm incubation. Also, government support on research plays a moderating role in academic innovation. Managerial and policy implications for managing innovation effectively in universities were drawn.