Novel naval technologies: Sustaining or disrupting naval doctrine

The defense sector is generally known to be simultaneously conservative and enthusiastic about novel technologies. Uptake of new technologies by the military may differ depending on the perceived impact of new technologies. Introduction of technological changes can sustain or disrupt doctrine and (promoters of) new technologies may be met with less or more resistance respectively. We analyzed dynamics in naval innovation cases to investigate how different types of technological change became associated with either sustaining or disruptive doctrinal innovations. In order to analyze dynamics in the cases, an analytical framework was developed which highlighted a set of factors shaping naval innovation processes.     

Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies

Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.     

能量转换视角下人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径解析

人工智能是驱动新一轮科技革命和产业变革的中坚力量，探究人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径对于我国数字经济发展、数字化转型和创新型国家建设具有重要意义。基于能量转换视角，探讨人工智能技术产业化路径形成机理，识别人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径并对其进行解析。研究发现：①人工智能技术产业化过程存在能量转换，技术创新能量、催化孕育能量、商业转化能量和业态塑造能量共同构成能量转换的核心环节，决定技术产业化路径具体过程；②人工智能关键核心技术包括机器学习、计算机视觉、自然语言处理等八大技术领域，不同属性核心技术构成相应技术集群，形成以识别、交互和执行为主题的技术产业化路径；③技术集群属性是影响技术产业化路径的关键因素。从能量视角对人工智能关键核心技术进行有效识别和归纳，为我国科学推进人工智能技术产业化进程提供相应思路启示与政策响应。     

Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change

The central idea of this paper is that innovation systems are a very important determinant of technological change. We describe that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change. Therefore, it is necessary to create more insight in the dynamics of innovation systems. Traditional methods of innovation system analysis that mainly focus on the structure of innovation systems have proven to be insufficient. Therefore, we propose a framework that focuses on a number of processes that are highly important for well performing innovation systems. These processes are labeled as ‘functions of innovation systems’. After explaining this framework and embedding it in existing literature, we propose a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change. This method can be characterized as a process analysis or history event analysis. Clarifying examples are taken from the empirical field of Sustainable Technology Development.     

Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

Combining the technological innovation systems framework with the entrepreneurs’ perspective on innovation

For their technological sustainability innovations to become successful, entrepreneurs can strategically shape the technological field in which they are involved. The technological innovation systems (TISs) literature has generated valuable insights into the processes which need to be stimulated for the successful development and implementation of innovative sustainability technologies. To explore the applicability of the TIS framework from the perspective of entrepreneurs, we conducted a case study in the Dutch smart grids sector. We found that the TIS framework generally matches the perspectives of entrepreneurs. For its use by entrepreneurs, we suggest a slight adaptation of this framework. The process ‘Market formation’ needs to be divided into processes that are driven by the government and processes that are driven by entrepreneurs. There should be a greater emphasis on collaborative marketing, on changing user behaviour and preferences and on the development of fair and feasible business models.     

The economics of gateway technologies and network evolution: Lessons from electricity supply history

Contemporary economic issues concerning technological innovation and compatibility standardization in emergent ‘network’ industries are illuminated indirectly in this paper by the examination of the historical development of the technology of electric light and power systems in the United States and Europe during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. The discussion focuses on the rivalry between the initially incompatible technical formulations of a system supplying electric lighting and power. In the dynamics of competition between alternative technologies under such conditions, the details of the timing of small historical events could have important and lasting consequences.Special notice is given to the role which the induced invention of a compatibility-creating technical device-the rotary converter-played in the conduct and resolution of the so-called ‘Battle of the Systems’. The rotary converter is analyzed as a paradigmatic ‘gateway innovation’, one of a large class of ‘minor’ technological innovations whose actual importance in the context of network evolution warrants greater recognition from economists.     

技术学习、管理学习对自主创新的影响——技术复杂性的调节作用

在国内外竞争日趋激烈的背景下，如何提高企业自主创新能力受到广泛关注。基于组织学习理论，构建了技术学习、管理学习、技术复杂性与自主创新之间的理论模型，并利用252家中国制造业企业调研数据对相关假设进行了检验。结果表明：技术学习对自主创新具有倒U型影响；管理学习对自主创新具有正向影响；技术学习与管理学习的交互效应对自主创新具有正向影响；技术复杂性会加强技术学习对自主创新的倒U型影响，削弱管理学习对自主创新的正向影响。     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

Cumulative causation in the formation of a technological innovation system: The case of biofuels in the Netherlands

Despite its worldwide success, the innovation systems approach is often criticised for being theoretically underdeveloped. This paper aims to contribute to the conceptual and methodological basis of the (technological) innovation systems approach. We propose an alteration that improves the analysis of dynamics, especially with respect to emerging innovation systems. We do this by expanding on the technological innovation systems and system functions literature, and by employing the method of ‘event history analysis’. By mapping events, the interactions between system functions and their development over time can be analysed. Based on this it becomes possible to identify forms of positive feedback, i.e. cumulative causation. As an illustration of the approach, we assess the biofuels innovation system in The Netherlands as it evolved from 1990 to 2007.     

Sectoral systems of environmental innovation: An application to the French automotive industry

This article seeks to show how a sectoral system approach may contribute to the analysis of the determinants of environmental innovations. By using Malerba's [F. Malerba: Sectoral systems of innovation and production, Res. Policy Vol. 102, 845-859, (2002)] concept of sectoral system of innovation and production, we develop a sectoral framework based on three building blocks: technological regimes, demand conditions and environmental and innovation policy. Within this framework, the sectoral patterns of environmental innovation result from the interplay between these three blocks. The conceptual framework is applied to the case of the French automotive industry, with a specific focus on the development of low emission vehicles. The analysis shows how technological regime and demand conditions lead to technological inertia, and so to a strong persistence of the dominant design. Finally, environmental and innovative policy are considered in an integrated way, so that we can study how they influence technological regime and demand conditions, and in the meantime how they are conditioned by these two blocks.     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.     

Structural and geographical patterns of knowledge networks in emerging technological standards: evidence from the European GNSS industry

The concentration and dispersion of innovative activities in space have been largely explained and evidenced by the nature of knowledge and the geographical extent of knowledge spillovers. One of the empirical challenges is to go beyond this by understanding how the geography of innovation is shaped by particular structural properties of knowledge networks. This paper contributes to this challenge, focusing on the particular case of global navigation satellite systems at the European level. We exploit a database of R&D collaborative projects based on the fifth and sixth European Union Framework Programs, and apply social network analysis in economic geography. We study the properties both of the network of organizations and the network of collaborative projects. We show that the nature of the knowledge involved in relationships influences the geographical and structural organizations of the technological field. The observed coexistence of a relational core/periphery structure with a geographical cluster/pipeline one is discussed in the light of the industrial and geographical dynamics of technological standards.     

Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation

This paper proposes that the specific pattern of innovative activities in an industry can be explained as the outcome of different technological (learning) regimes . A technological regime is defined by the particular combination of technological opportunities, appropriability of innovations, cumulativeness of technical advances and properties of the knowledge base. Building upon the distinction between Schumpeter Mark I and Schumpeter Mark II industries, this paper provides empirical estimates of the relationships between indicators of the Schumpeterian patterns of innovation (concentration of innovative activities, stability in the hierarchy of innovators and importance of new innovators) and indicators of the variables defining technological regimes.     

A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy

This paper proposes a coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy, based on the coevolution of ecosystems, technologies, institutions, business strategies and user practices, within a multi-level micro-meso-macro perspective. This builds on and develops previous coevolutionary analyses of long-term technological and industrial change, and recent renewed interest within ecological economics on coevolutionary approaches. Previous work has analysed how the coevolution of technologies and institutions has led to the lock-in of current high-carbon energy systems; and how the coevolution of physical and social technologies and business strategies has brought significant material and welfare benefits to the minority of the world's population living in industrialised countries. The coevolutionary framework proposed here may be used to undertake: (1) detailed empirical analyses at a micro-meso level of the challenges relating to the innovation and adoption of particularly low-carbon technologies; (2) as a framework for analysing the multi-level interaction of social and technological elements within potential transition pathways to a low carbon energy system; (3) to assess the implications for economic growth and prosperity of a transition to a low carbon economy; and (4) to assist in the development of more formal, multi-level evolutionary economic models.     

A model of the learning process with local knowledge externalities illustrated with an integrated graphical framework

We present a unified graphical framework accounting for the nature and impact of spillover effects. The dynamics of the learning process with a specific spillover transfer mechanism can be illustrated by referring to this four-quadrant picture. In particular, a whole cycle of technological learning is explained with the help of such a graphical representation of the basic learning process in the presence of knowledge spillovers.

We hypothesize two different functional specifications of spillover exchanges among firms within a local innovation system. Each conceivable shape for the knowledge transfer relationship among firms expresses a possible mode and intensity of information processing arising from technology spillovers. A general proposition regarding the relative efficiency of the two alternative formal models with spillover effects is derived. The basic models with spillover effects are then extended in several relevant directions.     

Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.     

The sources of use knowledge: Towards integrating the dynamics of technology use and design in the articulation of societal challenges

This paper reviews three strands of the innovation literature that have presented innovation as a distributed process that combines knowledge of designers and users: user innovations, Science and Technology Studies (STS), and domestication research. These literatures have explored different aspects of the micro-processes through which use and design knowledge are locally embedded. This paper pulls together insights from the literatures, and identifies an important gap: the connections between the local embedding of use and design knowledge, and the meso dynamics of industrial and technological change. The paper then develops a number of integrating concepts and propositions for a framework to study the co-evolution of use and design in innovation processes. It also demonstrates that this framework is most valuable in researching how societal challenges become articulated over time in processes of technological change and innovation.     

Interaction patterns of systemic problems in distributed energy technology diffusion: a case study of photovoltaics in the Western Cape province of South Africa

ABSTRACT

Compared to large-scale renewable energy systems, distributed systems have diffused relatively slowly in recent years, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we analysed the barriers to the diffusion of distributed photovoltaics in South Africa by applying the technological innovation system framework. More specifically, we carried out an interview-based structural-functional analysis to identify underlying systemic problems, reveal their patterns of interaction, and analyse the implications of these patterns for the relationship among the key processes within the innovation system, the so-called system functions. We identified a variety of interlinked problems, shed light on the specific roles of different, mal-performing, system functions, and revealed constellations where specific functions blocked each other and, thereby, created lock-in situations. Although the findings reveal the complexity of the problems that are associated with the implementation of distributed energy technologies, they also indicate that these problems may be addressed successfully.     

Creating integrated performance systems: the business of the future

Organized around the concept of integrated performance system, suppliers will not sell physical technologies. They will sell the output of physical technologies. They will sell the output of physical systems. Whether that service is meals or heating and cooling, the supplier will have strong incentives to provide the most efficient and effective technological base in order to optimize performance. Integrated performance systems are envolving under a variety of sponsorships. They offer great business opportunities, stimulate technical innovation, increase efficiency in use of energy and resources, and provide customers and customers with much sought-after, high quality, reliable choices.