The prospects for a hydrogen economy (1): hydrogen futures

Common to all discussions and projections of ‘a hydrogen economy’ is the widespread use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. Such use requires the development and application of a range of different technologies, some similar to and some quite different from those in common use in current energy systems. This paper starts by briefly introducing and describing the physical characteristics, economics and functionality of these technologies, before discussing some of the hydrogen futures that have been proposed, and the great improvements to the technologies which will be required before they become competitive with alternative means of delivering the same energy service. Technology cost estimates are then used to explore through the use of formal modelling techniques some of the futures scenarios.     

Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles

This paper describes work undertaken in the MATISSE project to explore the potential for a sustainable hydrogen transition within Europe and the implications for infrastructure investment. Stakeholder engagement work conducted within MATISSE identified unsustainable aspects of current transport and desirable characteristics of sustainable hydrogen road transport. Key criteria were: emissions reduction, security of energy supply, affordability and economic competitiveness.Results from the ASTRA model show that a transition to hydrogen transport fuels would have an increase in GDP, employment and investment; and growth in a number of sectors (electronic, chemical, mechanical and automotive) associated with hydrogen fuel cell technology. A hydrogen diffusion model shows that in a few years after 2040 all cars in Germany could be hydrogen driven cars. Fast build-up of a network of at least 500 filling stations (in urban areas and at highways) is very important for the market acceptance of hydrogen vehicles and compared with subsidies for vehicles and fuel the necessary investments are very small. For fuel infrastructure:

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Only a total amount of approx. 200 million Euros are necessary for infrastructure build-up in urban areas.

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Additional support is needed for installation of hydrogen filing stations on highways (approx. 100 million Euros).

     

Corporate performance implications of extended stakeholder management: New insights on mediation and moderation effects

This paper looks at the extent to which stakeholder pressure is related to the integration of management practices within the firm and at the link of integration with self-reported economic and environmental performance as an outcome variable. It specifically analyses possible mediation and moderation effects through multiple-group AMOS comparing subsamples. As concerns integration, a strong mediation effect is established. As far as country location is concerned, the results show a moderating effect on the paths of integration and internal stakeholder groups and on the paths of integration with, respectively, efficiency, image, risk (as economic performance variables) as well as emissions and inputs (as environmental performance variables). It also shows a negative moderator effect of age on the relationship between integration and inputs and that profitability has a positive moderator effect on the relationship between the pressure from public actors and integration.     

Technology roadmaps for transition management: The case of hydrogen energy

Technology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions, such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps, the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful, roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation, but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises.     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the potential to contribute to a sustainable transport system with zero tailpipe emissions. This requires the construction of a network of fuel stations, a long-term, expensive and highly uncertain investment. We contribute to the literature by including a knock-out barrier option in an n-fold compound real option model to take account of immediate project failure in a multi-stage sequential investment project. Our model allows to explicitly incorporate the default possibility of large-scale energy infrastructure projects. In our case study of hydrogen infrastructure development, we find that even for the least conservative valuation method no profitable business case can be made for the development of hydrogen as a sustainable transportation mode. However, we do provide some suggestive scenarios that plausible tax schedules can be designed to overcome the starting problems for hydrogen infrastructure development.     

Learning before the storm: Modeling multiple stakeholder activities in support of crisis management,a practical case

The severe consequences of a Critical Infrastructure (CI) crisis demand continued research directed toward proactive and reactive management strategies. Despite the best efforts of governments and communities, the diversity of stakeholders, conflicting demands for resources, and a lack of trust among organizations create complexities that limit the effectiveness of the response. This paper identifies four specific problems that appear to reoccur when CIs are challenged: heterogeneity, multiple and inconsistent boundaries, resilience building and knowledge transfer and sharing. A combination of collaborative modeling and software simulation methodologies is proposed in order to identify the interrelationships among diverse stakeholders when managing the preparation for and reaction to a CI crisis. This approach allows experts to work together and share experiences through the modeling process which can lead them to a better understanding of how other organizations work and integrate different perspectives. In addition, simulation models enable domain experts to understand the consequences of certain policies in the short and long terms, thus improving the crisis managers' knowledge for future crisis situations. This paper presents a practical case of a hypothetical crisis in the CI sector and the approach used in order to deal with the four problems identified above.     

The prospects of energy conservation: A different approach to the fuel demand for space heating

Zusammenfassung Die meisten empirischen Untersuchungen über das Ausmaß der jüngsten Energieeinsparungen verwendeten ökonometrische Beziehungen und Elastizitäten. Diese Arbeit jedoch geht von einer technischen Beschreibung des Services thermische Behaglichkeit aus. Basierend auf empirischem Datenmaterial über die Infrastruktur und das Klima der Stadt Wien werden sowohl die Aussichten und das Potential an Energieeinsparungen quantifiziert als auch der Effekt spezifischer Politiken. Für diesen Zweck wurde ein nichtlineares Optimierungsmodell mit disjunktiven Randbedingungen entwickelt und gelöst.

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Research leading to this paper was supported by a grant from the Austria Federal Ministry of Science and Research, and that support is gretefully acknowledged. We wish to thank P. J. Jansen for discussions on this topic and also the referees for their valuable comments on this paper.     

Transition to a market type economy: The case of Czechoslovakia

Conclusion The privatisation and liberalisation steps referred to are an expression of the endeavour to accompany stabilisation efforts as quickly as feasible with the institutional and systemic changes as well as with policies for restructuring, to change the behaviour patterns of economics agents. Until this change takes place, the more effective the restrictive policies are in the financial sphere, the higher the costs incurred in the real sphere will tend to be.The achievement of the desirable trade-offs between the conflicting aims of the macroeconomic development is thus linked with the degree of success in the changes of behaviour of economic agents. The macroeconomic stabilisation will therefore in the longer run depend on the extent to which the regime actually changes, on the positive destabilisation of economic agents and on the progress in their restructuring.In Czechoslovakia there does not therefore seem to be as clear-cut a distinction, as in other reforming countries, between the phases of stabilisation policies, institutional and systemic changes and those of the restructuring policies.The measures to transform the Czechoslovak economy and the implementation of these measures represent an attempt to proceed on a wider front, to take coordinated steps in all the relevant spheres, implying a greater degree of simultaneity. This is a reflection of the strategy chosen which aims at a qualitative change to be accomplished rapidly, taking into account the fact that the individual steps in the various spheres of the transition process are closely interconnected. The approach followed could thus be considered a strategy to introduce groups of complementary policy measures, that is to say, to make several reform packages and to implement them sequentially.     

Educational mismatch and promotions to managerial positions: a test of the career mobility theory

Career mobility theory suggests that given a certain occupation, schooling improves upward mobility in terms of promotion and wage growth. We are the first to test the implications of this theory for over- and undereducation by means of direct information about promotions to managerial positions. Using German administrative data entailing an employer-reported – and hence objective – measure of educational requirements, we show that overeducated workers are indeed more likely to be promoted and that this career mobility advantage is more pronounced in the early stages of their working lives. By contrast, undereducated workers are less likely to be promoted to managerial positions. Moreover, in terms of wage growth, while overeducated workers benefit more, undereducated workers benefit less from promotions than their well-matched educational peers. Altogether, these findings strongly support the career mobility theory. Furthermore, by differentiating between internal and external promotions, we provide evidence that promotions are more likely for overeducated workers within the establishment, whereas the opposite applies for undereducated workers. This finding indicates the relevance of both over- and undereducation as signals of true ability to other employers.     

Optimal private good allocation: The case for a balanced budget

In an independent private value auction environment, we are interested in strategy-proof mechanisms that maximize the agents' residual surplus, that is, the utility derived from the physical allocation minus transfers accruing to an external entity. We find that, under the assumption of an increasing hazard rate of type distributions, an optimal deterministic mechanism never extracts any net payments from the agents, that is, it will be budget-balanced. Specifically, optimal mechanisms have a simple “posted price” or “option” form. In the bilateral trade environment, we obtain optimality of posted price mechanisms without any assumption on type distributions.     

Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel: The case of OPEC

This paper examines pricing policies for OPEC under the assumption that the cartel is composed of a block of spender countries with large cash needs and a block of saver countries with little immediate need for cash and a lower rate of discount. The decision problem for the two-part cartel is embodied in a game-theoretic framework and the optimal bargaining solution is computed using results from the theory of cooperative games developed by Nash. The set of feasible bargaining points—and the corresponding Nash solution—is computed under two assumptions on the behavior of output shares: that they are subject to choice and that they are fixed at historical values. Our results suggest that for fixed output shares, there is little room for bargaining, and the price path approximates the optimal monopoly price path. If the shares are subject to control, optimal paths depend significantly on the relative bargaining power of each block.     

The effect of distance on willingness to pay values: a case study of wetlands and salmon in California

Most contingent valuation studies in the literature utilized a pre-determined geographic market area for their sample frame. In other words, they did not include variables that would measure the extent of the geographic areas over which to aggregate willingness to pay. These studies implicitly assumed that the effects of geographic distance were moot; an assumption that could have led to an understatement of the aggregate benefit values computed in these studies. The overall goal of this study was to determine if distance affects willingness to pay for public goods with large non-use values. The data used came from a contingent valuation study regarding the San Joaquin Valley, CA. Respondents were asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for three proposed programs designed to reduce various environmental problems in the Valley. A logit model was used to examine the effects of geographic distance on respondents' willingness to pay for each of the three programs. Results indicate that distance affected WTP for two of the three programs (wetlands habitat and wildlife, and the wildlife contamination control programs). We calculate the underestimate in benefits if the geographic extent of the public good market is arbitrarily limited to one political jurisdiction.     

Using choice question formats to determine compensable values: The case of a landfill-siting process

Siting noxious facilities, such as community landfills, is a challenging problem for local planners who recognize the importance of economic efficiency and equity, political acceptance, and meeting federal regulatory standards. Meeting these criteria requires technical and socio-economic analyses in conjunction with public input. Planners may also recognize that political acceptance requires compensation for the host community, either in the form of monetary or in-kind transfers. Following Breffle and Rowe [Breffle, W.S., Rowe. R.D., 2002. Comparing choice question formats for evaluating natural resource tradeoffs. Land Econ. 78 (2), 298–314], we use a “resource-to-resource” paired-comparison survey method to estimate compensatory values associated with an in-county landfill for both the host and non-host communities. Our results indicate that while a host-community household's minimum willingness to accept payment for hosting a landfill may exceed a non-host-community household's maximum willingness to pay, a large difference in population sizes between the two communities enables the landfill to pass a Kaldor potential compensation test.     

The case for a “productivity norm”: Comment on Dowd

Instead of aiming for zero inflation, a “productivity norm” would allow permanent changes in the price level reflecting opposite changes in productivity or unit costs of production. Dowd (1995) disputes my claim that a productivity norm would be more conducive to macroeconomic stability than a stable price level. But Dowd's arguments succeed in undermining the case for a productivity norm only to the extent that they also undermine his own case for zero inflation.     

The influence of perceived uncertainty on entrepreneurial action in the transition to a low-emission energy infrastructure: The case of biomass combustion in The Netherlands

The transition towards renewable energy production will not occur without the involvement of entrepreneurs who dare to take action amidst uncertainty. In an earlier article, a conceptual model was introduced for analyzing how perceived uncertainties influence the decisions and actions of entrepreneurs involved in innovation projects that aimed at developing and implementing renewable energy technologies. In this article, the conceptual model is applied to stand-alone biomass combustion projects in the Netherlands. Although none of the biomass combustion projects has been abandoned, some entrepreneurs clearly have more difficulty to turn their project into a success than others. To create insight into the underlying dynamics of these projects, the article analyzes what types of positive or negative interaction patterns occur over time between (internal or external) factors in the project environment, perceived uncertainties, motivation and entrepreneurial action and how these patterns can be stimulated or prevented. The results provide several lessons to take into account when designing policies for stimulating the development and implementation of biomass combustion.     

Purchasing Power Parity and aggregation bias for a developing country: The case of Mexico

This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. — which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias — and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein — hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although estimates using aggregate data and imposing homogeneous coefficients provide little evidence of PPP, findings with disaggregated data and heterogeneous coefficient estimators offer strong support. The results also suggest the presence of small-sample bias as examined in Chen and Engel, but with little effect on the qualitative results. Tradable goods and non-tradable goods show little distinction in convergence rates. Estimated half-lives are lower under flexible than fixed exchange rates and indicate rapid convergence during the Mexican peso crisis.     

The impact of lifestyle health risk on the bottom line: a case study

As the Lifestyle Advantage study continues, HPS expects to follow the utilization trends for a consistent group of participants and nonparticipants, maintaining full confidentiality. Several key issues will be addressed in the process: As the participation rate increases, will the claims payment gap between participants and nonparticipants be reduced? Can a company hope to see a return on an investment in a health promotion program? If so, over what period of time? Finding answers to these questions will contribute to the larger issues of long-term health care cost containment and health care reform.