Integrating business modeling and roadmapping methods - The Innovation Support Technology (IST) approach

The purpose of this paper is to report the integration studies of business modeling and roadmapping methods for the “Innovation Support Technology (IST)” and the IST's practical application to real-world cases. The IST is conducted for the purpose of offering a convenient tool for engineers and researchers in order to enhance corporate value from R&D outputs. “Japan's lost decade” has forced companies to change R&D management and R&D operation style, especially regional industries. We propose the framework for revitalization of regional industries by using the Strategic Technology Roadmap made by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI-TRM) with business modeling. We applied this IST method to several real-world cases to show its effectiveness. This study represents the result of over four years (fall 2002) of work with the value creation framework of the business modeling method for R&D outputs, done by a group of researchers from JATES (Japan Techno-Economics Society).     

The case for ethical technology assessment (eTA)

New technologies often give rise to previously unknown ethical problems, and it often takes many years to fully integrate them in society. We propose a new form of technology assessment that will focus on the ethical implications of new technologies; ethical technology assessment (eTA). Ethical technology assessment will serve as a tool for identifying adverse effects of new technologies at an early stage. It should be undertaken in dialogue with technology developers and have the form of a continuous dialogue rather than a single evaluation at a specific point in time. eTA can be conducted on the basis of a check-list that refers to nine crucial ethical aspects of technology; (1) Dissemination and use of information, (2) Control, influence and power, (3) Impact on social contact patterns, (4) Privacy, (5) Sustainability, (6) Human reproduction, (7) Gender, minorities and justice, (8) International relations, and (9) Impact on human values. Ethical technology assessments should not be committed to any particular moral theory. Instead they should be open to different perspectives and solutions.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach

In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields.     

Integrating fuzzy-set theory into technology roadmap development to support decision-making

Technology roadmap has long been regarded as a useful tool for linking business to technologies. Accordingly, establishing the relationships between market, product and technology elements is an essential part of successful technology roadmap development. Despite the significance as of analysing such relationships, however, few previous attempts have been made to address this issue. To overcome the limitations of previous studies, therefore, this study focused on the relationships between the diverse roadmap layers and aimed to develop a decision-support tool to investigate these relationships. To this end, fuzzy inference was applied to determine the relative importance of link between the roadmap elements, considering the degree of significance as well as the degree of relationship between the two. This study is expected to contribute to the existing roadmap literature by emphasising the value of relationship analysis, and can also be useful in practice by improving the quality of information on technology roadmap.     

Exploring the future of ecological genomics: Integrating CTA with vision assessment

Interactive approaches to technology development provide opportunities for the development of innovative technologies which clearly connect with social practices and address the positive and negative effects as perceived by relevant actors. The challenge is to start an interactive approach early in the development of new technologies, when many options are still open for exploration and there are good possibilities for steering. Early involvement of societal actors is, however, challenged by the absence of concrete applications on which they can develop their own visions from the perspective of their own needs, interests, norms and values. Integrating Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) with vision assessment is proposed as an approach to overcome this dilemma in the field of ecological genomics and bridge the knowledge gap between parties closely involved with ecogenomics research and other relevant actors. We present, evaluate and discuss the process of identifying guiding visions of the technology developers as a first step in this approach and end with some suggestions on how desirable futures for ecogenomics can subsequently be assessed from the perspectives of different actors.     

Designing foresight studies for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (NST) future developments

Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (NST) is widely considered as one of the most promising areas of scientific and technological development for future decades. As a consequence, almost every country in the world has chosen to invest significantly in this area. This choice, however, is only a first step in the investment decision process, given that almost any scientific discipline can be taken at the scale of a nanometre. In this paper, it is argued that foresight studies to decide where to invest in the nanotechnology area should be designed in a different way from what is normally done. Nanotechnology, in fact, has specific characteristics that should be taken into account when evaluating its expected impacts and potentialities.     

Rethinking constructive technology assessment as democratic, reflective, discourse

This paper conceives technology assessment potentially to be a constructively democratic, reflective and discursive process. The paper reviews selected literature focusing on the notion and practice of constructive technology assessment (CTA). CTA aims to produce better technology in a better society, and emphasises the early involvement of a broad array of actors to facilitate social learning about technology and potential impacts. The paper presents a new perspective of CTA based on a discussion of contiguous research on the social implications and control of technology, reflexivity and reflection in the ‘risk society’ (Beck), and on public understanding and participation in science and technology. The paper concludes that the future development of CTA is well served by improved articulation or revision of core elements of the approach, for example by emphasising a concern for interaction and socio-technical criticism based on democratic principles. In addition, to conceive of CTA as a discursive activity may facilitate the analysis of the limitations in practice on the role of non-experts participating in technology assessment and the capacity for self-reflection of all actors.     

Vision 2023: Turkey's national Technology Foresight Program: A contextualist analysis and discussion

Likewise many other developed and developing countries, a national Technology Foresight Program was carried out in Turkey under the name of Vision 2023. This paper analyzes and discusses the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Program from a contextualist perspective. The contextualist perspective suggests relationships between the context, content and process of change; and thus proposes that any change activity should be designed, organized and implemented by considering these relationships. This viewpoint is seen as a necessary condition for the achievement of change in organizations and society. In this respect, the Vision 2023 Program is considered in its own national and organizational contexts by discussing (i) how the factors in these contexts affected particular decisions taken on the content and approaches adopted in the process and (ii) how problems emerged when these relationships were dismissed. Through the analysis, the paper suggests that a Foresight program should be organized, designed and practised by considering the effects of the external contexts (e.g. national, regional and/or corporate contexts) and structural and behavioral factors stemming from these different context levels along with the nature of the issue being worked on, which constitute the content of the exercise.     

Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France

The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, energy, environment and natural resources.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

A Scenario-Based Assessment Model—SBAM

Scenario generation methods have often been used by policy makers as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the technological environment and to support the shaping of long-term technology policies. Although scenario generation methods are conceptually useful in the shaping of long-term technology policies, the literature suggests that there is a methodological gap between the two. In an effort to bridge this gap, the authors propose a Scenario-Based Assessment Model (SBAM). This work introduces the principles and methodological basics of the SBAM. Moreover, an example is given to illustrate how this model can be applied.     

Global distribution of micro–nano technology and fabrication centers: A portfolio analysis approach

Micro and Nano Technologies (MNT) are potential economic engines that have the capability to become the basis for regional and national job and wealth creation. Some have even suggested that MNT along with information technology and media form the basis of a new Schumpeterian or Kondratief wave. Many governments recognizing MNT as enabling technologies with exceptional economic potential have embraced them as centerpieces of their technology policy. Many of these same countries and regions as an expression of their technology policy are creating national centers that embrace the promise of MNT. These international Micro and Nano Technology Centers (MNTC) have taken a variety of forms.Here we review the variety of forms and define the nature of many these major MNTCs from around the world by describing some of their similarities and differences. We provide an insight into many of these centers' demonstrated policy and tactics as they optimize their value to their constituents. Finally we provide a contribution to the literature by providing a categorization scheme for global MNTCs based on our exploration.     

The analysis of Taiwanese bank efficiency: Incorporating both external environment risk and internal risk

This study adopts a three-stage approach to estimate bank efficiency based on information obtained from 29 banks in Taiwan for the period from 2002 to 2004. In the first stage we employ super SBM (super slacks-based measure) to estimate the scores relating bank efficiency including internal risk. In the second stage a stochastic frontier regression model is then employed to estimate the external environment risk effects. In the third stage we employ the DEA method again to estimate the scores relating bank efficiency including the internal risk and excluding the external risk.     

Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018

In order to increase competitiveness among individual producers and to encourage their integration, the federal government of Mexico has pursued the establishment, at both the state and national levels, of supply chains, or Sistema Producto (SP). For fisheries and aquaculture, 33 SPs exist at the state level and 7 at the national level, 1 of them for tilapia. The objective of this study is to carry out a foresight analysis (FA) of 4 tilapia SPs in Mexico—for the States of Colima, Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán—analyzing their 2018 vision for the development of the tilapia chain. FA provides an integral vision of both the internal and external environments, identifying the key factors for each SP and helping to develop the best strategies in order to compete successfully. Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán identify marketing aspects as key elements for their 10-year future: adding value to the product by means of new processing technologies, developing their own brand, and identifying and differentiating their product based on sanitary issues. Colima focuses its industry future success on efficiency improvements. Finally, the main technological disruptions identified by the 4 states are the incremental use of information technology, product and process certification, new hatcheries with genetically-improved fry, and new processing methodologies developed and/or applied.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Integrating technology roadmapping and portfolio management at the front-end of new product development

Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment.     

Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption

A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration.     

论风险导向审计下的审计风险评估

由于传统风险导向审计技术无法满足当今审计实务的最新发展需要,其实际应用功效偏低,因而急需一种全新审计模式来代替它,现代风险导向审计也就应运而生。在风险导向审计中,审计风险评估是整个审计工作的前提和基础,通过对审计风险的评估,确定审计的范围和重点,以提高审计的质量。