Employment polarization and the role of the apprenticeship system

This paper studies the effect of apprenticeship training on technology adoption and labor market polarization. A stylized model with two key features is developed: (1) apprentices are more productive due to industry-specific training, but (2) from the firm׳s perspective, when training apprentices, technological innovation is costly since training becomes obsolete. Thus, apprentices correlate with slower adoption of skill-replacing technologies, but also less employment polarization. We test this hypothesis on German regions given local variation in apprenticeship systems until 1976. The results show little computer adoption and no employment polarization related to apprentices, but similar displacement of non-apprentices by computers as in the US.     

Consumption externality and indeterminacy under increasing returns to scale and endogenous capital depreciation

This paper incorporates negative consumption externality embodying “jealousy” and “running away from the Joneses” into Guo and Lansing (2007)'s model with production externality and endogenous depreciation, and examines how consumption externality helps to generate equilibrium indeterminacy together with production externality. Specifically, the existence of consumption externality reduces the upper and lower bounds of production externality for local indeterminacy, and when the degree of consumption externality increases, the upper and lower bounds of production externalities for local indeterminacy are both reduced.     

国内外水资源承载力的研究综述

随着能源危机的出现,资源环境问题逐渐成为各国经济学家和环境学家特别关注的问题.近年来,水资源短缺越来越成为各地经济发展的制约因素,面对这种情况,资源承载力概念的提出为资源与经济发展问题提供了一条新的研究途径.本文将国内外有关水资源承载力概念和量化方法的研究作一总体分析,结果表明:(1)国外对水资源承载力的研究较少,国内的研究大体可分为初始、发展、鼎盛和拓展四个阶段;(2)从横向比较来看,水资源承载力的研究在我国以近十年为盛.但研究多集中在资源学科领域和地理环境学科领域,角度大多是综合考虑多方面的影响因素,对一个地区的水资源承载力作出系统评价,并借助可持续发展的思想,应用已有的和创新的方法来解决水资源承载力的问题;(3)水资源承载力的研究在一定程度上是土地资源承载力研究的进步;(4)水资源承载力的研究较少考虑环境污染对水资源承载力以及整个社会系统的影响.在此基础上,本文最后对承载力在自然资源方面的研究作了小结和展望.     

Economic Incentives and Residential Waste Management in Taiwan: An Empirical Investigation

This paper presents an empirical study of how three waste management policies have affected residential waste generation and recycling behavior in Taiwan over the past decade. The three policies are unit-pricing of garbage in Taipei, a mandatory recycling program in Kaohsiung, and a nationwide policy of charging for plastic bags. We estimate policy effects on total waste, total recycling, and recycling of four specific materials, all measured by weight per capita. Unlike prior work, we find that unit-pricing and mandatory recycling policies lead to significant increases in recycling of most materials, as well as increased levels of total recycling and garbage reduction. The “plastic bag” policy is generally found to lower material-specific and total recycling rates, as well as total garbage volumes.     

EQUITY-EFFICIENCY PREFERENCES IN Poland AND THE SOVIET UNION: ORDER-REVERSALS UNDER THE ATKINSON INDEX

In this paper, the relation between inequality and welfare index "reversals" is characterized. By the identification of these reversals, upper and lower bounds are established for Atkinson's parameter of inequality aversion. This exercise shows that a level of inequality aversion high enough to show welfare improving over the "egalitarian decline" of 1978–81 in Poland is too high to show improvement over the "elitist growth" of 1981–86 in the Soviet Union. However, even if the lower bound of inequality aversion is assumed, plausible projections on Soviet growth and distribution still show social welfare declining.     

湖南省各市(州)土地资源承载力评价

文章分析和预测了湖南省各市州耕地和人口变化情况以及土地现实生产力和2020年土地生产力.在此基础上,分析了各市(州)土地资源现实承载力和预测了2020年土地资源承载力,并认为全省目前除湘西地区外,其他地区都处于略有盈余状态,到2020年土地资源承载力超载地区将增加,长株潭等地区也将由现在的盈余地区转为基本平衡地区.最后提出协调人地关系的对策与建议.     

驻马店市相对资源承载力分析

文章采用相对资源承载力的理论与方法,对1997～2006年的驻马店市相对土地资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力和综合资源承载力进行了分析评价。结果表明,驻马店市近10年经济的持续增长是以自然资源的不断消耗为代价。由此得出,必须转变这种增长方式,走节约资源、保护环境的可持续发展道路。     

2020年中国人粮关系情景分析

根据耕地、复种、粮作比例、播面单产、人均消费需求等不同条件组合,讨论不同情景下中国分县的粮食产量和人口承载力,向国家层面汇总,对2020年(全面小康)中国人粮关系的未来前景进行系统分析,探讨不同情景下中国人口—土地—粮食的互动关系,为中国人粮关系协调发展提供决策依据。结果表明:在不同耕地、复种指数、粮作比例和播面单产组合下,我国2020年人口承载力在9.28亿人和16.96亿人之间,不同的生产经营和消费方式对中国是否能实现人粮平衡具有较大的作用。     

Expectations,capital formation,sales and capacity utilization

A model is developed and tested to relate capital formation, sales and capacity utilization in manufacturing to expected inflation and expected interest rates through anticipated real wealth effects. Expected future inflation causes purchases of storeable manufactured goods in advance and accumulations of physical capital. The former increases capacity utilization, while the latter decreases it. Expected increases in interest rates have an impact on sales and capital formation opposite to that of expected increases in prices. Finally, if expected inflation is accompanied by a propertionate increase in expected interest rates, sales decline more than capital formation, and hence capacity utilization contracts.     

REEXAMINING THE BORDER TAX EFFECT: A CASE STUDY OF WASHINGTON STATE

Without an income tax, Washington State relies heavily upon its sales tax revenue to fund public goods and services. Bordering Idaho and especially Oregon, where the sales tax is substantially lower, the juxtaposition of the different tax structures generates the border tax effect in Washington's border counties. Controlling for unobservable county‐specific characteristics and spatial autocorrelation, we find that the price elasticity generated by the sales tax discrepancy over the years 1992–2006 is ?3.11. We estimate that elimination of the sales tax differential between Washington and its neighboring states would generate tax revenue in excess of $145 million at the state level and over $21 million at the county level in border counties. (JEL C23, D12, E62, H71)     

Comparing Travel Cost Models And The Precision Of Their Consumer Surplus Estimates: Albert Park And Maroondah Reservoir

This study examines different types of Travel Cost Models to estimate and compare the recreational values of two parks in Victoria, Australia: Maroondah Reservoir and Albert Park. Zonal Travel Cost models and a number of different functional forms are used in this study. Standard errors are used to estimate upper and lower bounds for the recreational value estimates, enabling comparison between the precision of the different types of Travel Cost Models and functional forms estimated. The double log functional form city zone Travel Cost Model was chosen as the best estimate for Albert Park's recrea-tional value at $22.9 million per year. Maroondah Reservoir's best estimate is provided by the double log functional form regional zone Travel Cost Model at a value of $2.5 million per year, consider-ably less than that of Albert Park. Albert Park is found to have a comparatively larger 'proximity power' (attracting many more visitors) while Maroondah Reservoir exhibited a larger degree of 'pulling power' (a higher proportion of its visitors travel further distances).     

The credibility of commitment and optimal nonlinear savings taxation

Previous studies that examine optimal nonlinear taxation of savings/capital have assumed either full-commitment or no-commitment by the government. This raises the question as to whether the results under full-commitment and no-commitment provide upper and lower bounds on the optimal marginal savings tax rates. This paper shows that they do not. Specifically, we consider an infinite-horizon overlapping generations model in which agents attach some probability to whether or not the government can commit. When these probabilistic beliefs differ among high-skill individuals, the optimal steady-state marginal savings tax rates may fall outside those under the polar cases of full-commitment and no-commitment. Our numerical analysis finds that this theoretical possibility can occur under a baseline calibration with empirically plausible values of model parameters, and that it remains qualitatively robust with respect to various parametric changes.     

DOUBLING U.S. EXPORTS UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S NATIONAL EXPORT INITIATIVE: IMPLICATIONS OF SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION

President Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import‐demand curves and domestic export‐supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy‐wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession‐relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor‐demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export‐promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million 1‐year jobs for the period 2008–2020 to 45 million jobs. (JEL E17, C68, E62, E65, F16)     

MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING? DEMOGRAPHIC BULGES,THE PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE,AND CPP REFORM

Analysts predict that future demographically driven financial imbalances will undermine the sustainability of pay-as-you-go social insurance arrangements like the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). Proposed reforms for the CPP focus on raising the contribution rate to pre fund future benefits. In an overlapping generations model, the authors examine how demographic factors alone could explain the observed changes in productivity/wage growth over the last 30 years. The authors also examine how these factors impact on a pay-as-you-go financed CPP. If Canada is a small open economy, then real wages and real interest rates are not affected by domestic demographic conditions. In this setting, increasing payroll taxes transfers the burden of finance away from the lower income baby bust generation to the higher income baby boom generation. In contrast, if Canada can be characterized as a closed economy, then real wages and real interest rates are sensitive to domestic demographic conditions. In this setting, increasing payroll taxes now to keep taxes lower in future is intergenerationally regressive because the CPP burden is reduced for the well off baby bust generation and passed onto the lower income baby boomers. ( JEL H55, J18, J10)     

Diseconomies of scale for plant utilisation in electricity generation

Using data on electricity generation in the Netherlands it is shown that diseconomies of scale for plant utilisation occur. It is plausible that these diseconomies even offset economies of scale for capacity costs.     

基于改进生态足迹模型的耕地可持续利用研究———以怀来县为例

在总结以往生态足迹分析方法的基础上,提出了耕地可持续利用指数(CUSI),为定量评估耕地利用可持续发展状况提供了新的研究思路。以怀来县为例,研究结果表明:(1)1996～2008年间人均耕地生态足迹、生态足迹分别增加了0.0274hm2和0.1404hm2,耕地生态承载力则下降了0.1130hm2,耕地生态赤字增加说明耕地消耗量大于耕地供给量,耕地资源利用处于不可持续状况。耕地利用可持续程度由1996年的弱可持续阶段(0.01)向2008年的中等不可持续阶段(-0.31)发展。(2)通过对怀来县2011～2020年耕地生态足迹和生态承载力预测可知,到2020年该县人均耕地生态足迹、生态承载力分别为0.4821hm2、0.1387hm2,耕地生态赤字将达到0.3434hm2;CUSI为-0.55表明耕地利用处于强不可持续阶段,耕地保护形势不容乐观。     

Sharing a River

A group of agents located along a river have quasi-linear preferences over water and money. We ask how the water should be allocated and what money transfers should be performed. The core lower bounds require that no coalition should get less than the welfare it could achieve by using the water it controls. The aspiration upper bounds demand that no coalition enjoy a welfare higher than what it could achieve in the absence of the remaining agents. Exactly one welfare distribution satisfies the core lower bounds and the aspiration upper bounds: it is the marginal contribution vector corresponding to the ordering of the agents along the river. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D62, C71.     

Plastic wastes and the market penetration of auto shredders

In recent years the increased interest in the recycling of plastic wastes has lead to the development of numerous technological approaches to utilizing plastic wastes of varying qualities and types. A major problem with these technologies, however, is the unacceptable contamination levels in the available wastes. This paper examines one area from which relatively uncontaminated plastic wastes can be obtained—shredder residue from automotive shredder operations. In addition to reviewing the historical adoption of shredders, this paper uses econometric approaches to investigate the extent to which the shredder technology has penetrated the market for scrap steel. These approaches suggest that the movement toward shredders and away from the more conventional baler operations that have historically been used to process retired autos is slowing.     

Pricing policy of a U.S. telephone company

This paper analyses the pricing policy of a major U.S. telephone company in 1967. A mathematical programming model was used to calculate the prices per telephone call on each of three representative routes in each of four periods of the day which would be implied by a variety of alternative maximands (consumers' plus producers' surplus, profit, sales units, sales revenue), under a variety of alternative profit constraints and assuming capacity to be either fixed (at 1967 levels) or variable. Cost and demand data were supplied by several telephone company officials, and supplemented by published material. Sensitivity analysis was carried out on the demand elasticities. A total of one hundred versions of the model are reported on. Our major conclusions include: (i) Maximising consumers' plus producers' surplus subject to a pair of minimum profit constraints provided a good approximation to 1967 policy. (ii) There is perfect discrimination between large and small users for interstate toll calls. (iii) The effect of the state regulatory commission was to keep down the price of intrastate toll calls at the expense of interstate toll calls. (iv) As alternatives to regulation, perfect competition, if attainable, would increase benefits by about $100 million whereas perfect monopoly would reduce them by $300 million per annum, within the area of the company's operations.