Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption

A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

Learning in,through, and about participatory technology assessment: the case of Nanotechnologies for Tomorrow's Society (NanoSoc)

In participatory technology assessment (pTA), technical and nontechnical communities convene to share their views on a sociotechnical challenge, in an attempt to render technology research and development more socially robust. Taking these commitments to transdisciplinary collaboration and co-construction of technology as entry points, this article describes key tensions that emerged in a Flemish pTA project on nanotechnologies, entitled ‘Nanotechnologies for Tomorrow's Society’ (NanoSoc). The tensions relate to how the terms of participation were enacted, the potentially conflicting aims embedded in the project's mission and methods, the various roles initiating pTA researchers (social scientists) assumed throughout the project's duration, and the deliberative-democratic rationale that sustains pTA frameworks at large. The article is a response to a pressing question posed to the author by pTA professionals, project participants and policymakers who ask publics to partake in science and technology decision making: now that NanoSoc is concluded, what can we learn from it?     

Value of public goods from sports stadiums: the CVM approach

Many state and local governments have subsidized the construction of arenas and stadium for the use of professional sports teams. They often justify the subsidies by claiming the projects generate valuable public goods and positive externalities, though such benefits are difficult to measure. This article reports an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to measure the value of public goods generated by two proposed projects in Lexington, Kentucky: a new basketball arena for the University of Kentucky and a minor league baseball stadium. Neither project would generate sufficiently valuable public goods to justify public financing. Although the results cannot be generalized to other cases, they do shed light on some of the main issues involved, and they demonstrate the feasibility of applying CVM to the evaluation of the subsidized stadiums.     

Economic impact assessment of mega infrastructure pipeline projects

The economic development features for the decades after the Second World War provide evidence that investments to new infrastructures are a key driver in strengthening the national economy and enhancing nation’s productivity, as it creates economic benefits and additional income. However, the decision for fund allocation and investments in mega infrastructure pipeline projects often must be made in conditions that are much more fraught with uncertainty. The key question in such decisions is if the economic impact caused by the new project could be able to essentially boost the economy by creating new jobs and generating new income on one hand; and which are the business sectors expected to archive the benefits of this investment. This article deals with the estimation of the mega infrastructure pipeline project economic effects in economy. The methodological framework is based on input–output approach providing quantitative estimations about the economic impact of the project in terms of new income and jobs. The numerical application deals with the assessment of a cross-border crude oil pipeline project, connecting the ports of Burgas (Bulgaria) and Alexandroupolis (Greece), establishing a new transportation corridor for the crude oil from Black Sea to Southeast Mediterranean.     

Sustaining sustainability science: The role of established inter-disciplines

The establishment of new interdisciplinary fields such as ecological economics, human ecology or technology assessment can be interpreted as a logical consequence of striving for new sustainability sciences that address current global, multi-dimensional and multi-scale challenges. These set out to bridge the gap between the natural and the social sphere, between scientific analysis and societal action. This paper aims at re-assessing the contribution of established inter-disciplines to sustainable development. Journal articles of ecological economics, technology assessment and science and technology studies are evaluated and compared along several proposed features of sustainability science. The results converge in two crucial aspects. (1) Concise societal or political recommendations are not part of present day ‘normal science’, be it a disciplinary or an explicitly interdisciplinary research context. (2) Participatory exercises are rarely applied as a socio-politically embedded practice, despite a high interest in such exercises as an object of study and discussion.     

Integration of Technology Assessment in R&D Management Practices

This paper addresses the question of how technology assessment (TA) can be best integrated in the managment of R&D both at the laboratory and the policy level. The main objective is to present a conceptual framework to situate and evaluate the actual and possible TA infrastructure in Europe. The paper consists of three distinct sections. In section one, the concept and practice of TA are briefly introduced with an emphasis on their actual institutionalizations in Europe. Section two presents a conceptual framework of R&D managment at four levels: the R&D environment, the R&D institution, the R&D process, and the R&D project. The relationship between TA and R&D management is explored for each of the four levels. Finally, in section three the concept of and motives for TA integrated within the laboratory work of scientists and engineers are presented. The basic argument of this paper is that by promoting the integration of TA in R&D managment practices, a significant contribution can be made to (1) increasing the cost-efficiency of research and (2) increase the social responsiblity of scientists. The authors therefore draw up a conceptual framework for the development of R&D-integrated TA practices called Integrated Technology Assessment (ITA).     

Beyond the veil — The real value of Foresight

The wide application of foresight would benefit from a common assessment framework that hardly exists. This would require a higher level of reference, i.e. pursuing more generic goals. This is offered by the two concepts of “knowledge society” and “participatory governance”. The aim of the research is to develop an impact assessment framework of foresight programmes in developing more participatory “knowledge societies” beyond their specific aims.Research shows that the major impacts of foresight belong to three groups, i.e. in relation to knowledge, network creation, and promoting public engagement in policy-making. At the same time, the major features of modern societies are of three types, i.e. related to knowledge value, to innovation-driven growth and to consequences of a “risk society”. Thus, the relevant areas where foresight might contribute are: knowledge, networking, and coping with a ‘risk society’.The new framework is built on the features and pre-conditions of more participatory societies and draws upon existing evaluation approaches and concepts (“theory-based evaluation”, “knowledge value framework”, “behavioural” and “cognitive capacity additionality”) to tackle short-comings of earlier evaluation efforts. It is then tested in a case study that demonstrates its feasibility and comprehensiveness and further refines the assessment criteria it is based on.     

Controversies as governing processes in technology assessment

The first part of this article shows that in actual practice technology assessment (TA) has clearly moved from its basic conception as a set of objective methodologies developed and used by experts, to a standpoint which increasingly recognizes the need to make room for public participation. This has led to a view of controversies as informal processes of TA. The second part of the article argues for a further step, namely to conceive of TA as a social proces taking place in a space largely defined by controversies. Correlatively, it provides some initial elements for an analytical understanding of controvtersies as the ‘limiting factor’ of TA.     

Controversies as governing processes in technology assessment

The first part of this article shows that in actual practice technology assessment (TA) has clearly moved from its basic conception as a set of objective methodologies developed and used by experts, to a standpoint which increasingly recognizes the need to make room for public participation. This has led to a view of controversies as informal processes of TA. The second part of the article argues for a further step, namely to conceive of TA as a social proces taking place in a space largely defined by controversies. Correlatively, it provides some initial elements for an analytical understanding of controvtersies as the 'limiting factor' of TA.     

Relative consumption and majority voting: supplementing Oates’ “Decentralization Theorem”

This paper reconsiders the question of whether centralized or decentralized provision of local public goods is preferable, taking into account two new elements: the appearance of relative consumption effects and the possibility of an inefficient election outcome due to a right-skewed income distribution. Surprisingly, our results indicate that (1) decentralization may lead to a strictly higher welfare level than centralization, even if regions are homogeneous, and (2) under certain circumstances centralization may be welfare superior, even though traditional public good spillovers are not considered in our framework. Whether centralization or decentralization is preferable crucially depends on the extent to which social interaction takes place between regions.     

新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征

新兴技术这柄“双刃剑”虽然给国家带来新发展动能，但也同时引发诸多社会风险，如何化解新兴技术社会风险成为新兴技术治理面临的难题。前瞻性治理研究为新兴技术社会风险化解提供了一些思考，但是相关研究较为分散和模糊，相关经验难以奏效。运用文本分析法和层次分析法，聚焦治理主体、过程和结果3个要素，提炼新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征，并在中国情境下检验其适用性。结果表明，公众参与结果纳入既定政策议程、否决权、新兴技术公众参与法律法规等前瞻性特征得到专家一致认同，认为它们是新兴技术社会风险化解的必要条件。研究结论对提高新兴技术社会风险治理绩效具有一定理论启示。     

Politics and institutions: European parliamentary technology assessment

This paper analyses, from an institutionalist perspective, the emergence, nature and ways in which parliamentary scientific and technological advice activities are carried out in different European countries. A diffusion process from the United Sates could be identified in the early times, but some local preconditions are also important for the adoption of these practices in Europe, as well as the existence of some political entrepreneurs willing to advance the initiatives within their respective political systems. We argue that the connection of technology assessment (TA) with the political process can only be understood if the former is regarded not only as an input in the decision-making process but also as a legitimising mechanism.Different models of arrangements of parliamentary TA (PTA) are identified, depending on the degree of inclusiveness of different actors in the TA process. The adaptation, consolidation and differential impact of these organizations are mediated by two factors: the capacity of PTA organizations to gain support, both inside and outside the Legislature, and their capacity to access decision makers in an environment of competition with other organizations that also produce TA. Models of PTA have both types of these capacities in differing degrees. It is argued that differences in the potential impact of TA activities in the different countries are to be analysed in the context of the rules of the political game and the types of incentives that TA organizations face. The degree of autonomy/dependence and exclusivity/nonexclusivity of the assessment for the parliaments are essential for understanding the diversity of impacts.     

Subsidized technology and its utilization: Aids for the disabled

Subsidized research into advance technology is one means employed to attain social and ideological goals recognized as vital to a society. Increasing sensitivity to the social uses of technology has recently led to funding of R&D in aids for the disabled. An analysis of 89 such projects between 1979 and 1983 confirm the impact of subsidized public funding on such research, leading to a narrow focus on applied research in specific disability areas with the objective of creating a viable commercial prototype for a highly visible but extremely small number of severely disabled. Subsidized funding also reinforces specialization through selective support of projects by institutional setting. This specialization further focuses research into areas likely to be rewarded by further funding and through this mechanism scientific output matches needs for those whom R&D is subsidized. The impact of subsidized R&D for the disabled can therefore be said to be effective as an example of societal intervention in directing technological advances.     

THE DIVERSITY GAP IN THE PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP INDUSTRY: AN EXAMINATION OF WOMEN AND VISIBLE MINORITIES IN SENIOR LEADERSHIP POSITIONS

Despite intense focus on leadership diversity in industries such as high technology, business, the media and academia, to date the infrastructure sector has not received the same level of scrutiny. This paper develops a theoretical framework to explain why leadership diversity matters in the management of complex infrastructure projects delivered through public – private partnerships, and then empirically identifies the diversity gap in senior leadership in the PPP industry worldwide. The study is based on an examination of over 2,800 public and private sector executives, board members and politicians responsible for PPPs in over 90 countries. The results show that women and racial minorities are significantly underrepresented in senior leadership roles, a pattern that is deeply entrenched and consistent globally. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for the infrastructure industry, and explores how a lack of leadership diversity can influence project management outcomes.     

Towards a framework to understand purpose in Futures Studies: The role of Vickers' Appreciative System

There have been comments recently about the efficacy of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, relating to confusion on knowledge aggregation and methodology, which can be summarised in the question: “how to determine the purpose of such projects”. The lack of a purpose framework makes it difficult for ‘clients’ initiating such projects to determine if outcomes meet their original expectations. This paper proposes a framework to help understand the nature, objective and purpose of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, which we will argue helps to overcome these concerns. The proposed framework is based on Vickers' definition of an Appreciative System, highlighting how decision making involves three areas of judgment — reality judgment, value judgment, and instrumental judgment. It will be argued that decision-makers and policymakers call for Futures Studies projects when they become aware of an organizational deficiency in one or more of these areas.Each element, alone or in combination, could form the basis of a purpose definition for a Futures Studies project, and, therefore, needs to be considered to ensure that the project meets client expectations and is experienced as purposeful and rewarding. The paper elaborates on each of the three elements, and then discusses their integrated nature. This is followed by a discussion of the implications of Appreciative System theory for three key players in the decision making process, the organizational leadership, the professionals and the organization at large involved in the practice of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects.     

A socio-technical framework for assessing the viability of carbon capture and storage technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen as a key technology to tackle climate change. The principal idea of CCS is to remove carbon from the flue gases arising from burning fuels for electricity generation or industrial applications and to store the carbon in geological formations to prevent it from entering the atmosphere. Policy makers in several countries are supportive of the technology, but a number of uncertainties hamper its further development and deployment. The paper makes three related contributions to the literatures on socio-technical systems and technology assessment: 1) It systematically develops an interdisciplinary framework to assess the main uncertainties of CCS innovation. These include technical, economic, financial, political and societal issues. 2) It identifies important linkages between these uncertainties. 3) It develops qualitative and quantitative indicators for assessing these uncertainties. This framework aims to help decision making on CCS by private and public actors and is designed to be applicable to a wider range of low carbon technologies. The paper is based on a systematic review of the social science literature on CCS and on insights from innovation studies, as well as on interviews about assessment of new technologies with experts from a range of organisations and sectors.     

Rural versus urban preferences for renewable energy developments

Development of renewable energy resources, such as wind farms and hydro-electric schemes, are being promoted as a new method of expanding and diversifying employment in rural areas. However, such energy projects are associated with a range of environmental impacts which might be detrimental to other economic activities, such as those based on nature tourism. The authors use a Choice Experiment to quantify peoples' preferences over environmental and employment impacts that may result from the deployment of renewable energy projects in rural areas of Scotland, focussing in particular on any differences between the preferences of urban and rural dwellers, and on heterogeneity within these groups. Rural and urban households are shown to have different welfare gains which are dependent on the type of renewable energy technology and on the scale of project under consideration.     

Markets, bureaucracies and groups in the information society : An institutional appraisal of the impacts of information technology

The issue regarding the impact of information technology on organizations is here reconsidered by applying a new analytical framework. Information technology affects the cost of transactions which take place under alternative institutional arrangements, such as markets, bureaucracies and groups; technology can affect the efficiency of the organizations which apply it and the organizational behaviour of their members. Empirical data show how computerization changes organizational patterns according to efficiency considerations. An enlargement of the framework to take into account alternative mechanisms for organizational participation, such as exit, voice and loyalty, allows to examine the impacts of information technology on participation possibilities within organizations.