Is the Global Economy Headed for a Lost Decade? A European Perspective

In the 15 years leading up to the recent crisis, the world economy's exceptional performance was driven by globalisation, rapid, export-driven growth in emerging markets, debt-fuelled consumption in major advanced economies, and a benign financial and macroeconomic environment. These, however, sowed the seeds for the financial crisis by creating unsustainable imbalances and distortions. Obstacles to future growth are likely to be retrenchment in consumption, dampened investment, and unsustainable fiscal balances. Going forward, there must be a renewed commitment to medium-term, rule-based, policies for maintaining fiscal sustainability, price stability, and financial stability. The international imbalances between savings and consumption must also be addressed through a global reform agenda discussed in the paper. Even with reform, the challenges to growth will be daunting. Without reform, however, it is likely that the global economy will suffer a lost decade.     

按照十八大要求加快财税体制改革完善公共财政体系

十六大以来我国财税体制改革取得重大进展,公共财政支出管理改革取得了很大成就。十八大报告对当前及今后一个时期加快财税体制改革、完善公共财政体系提出了明确要求。加快完善公共财政体系,必须建立健全财力与事权相匹配的财税体制;进一步完善预算体系与预算管理体系;加大支出结构的调整;加快完善税收制度。同时,要深入探讨开征环境保护税。     

Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis

This paper studies the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro-area. To do so, structural VAR models are estimated. First, the EMU countries are considered as an aggregate entity and the estimation results are compared with those for the US and Japan. Attention is also paid to interaction of macroeconomic policies and the effects of shocks in financial markets. As a next step, SVARs are estimated for the individual EMU countries to analyze cross-country differences. It turns out that, compared to the EMU aggregate, individual EU countries react rather differently to monetary and fiscal policy shocks.     

Fiscal stimulus and its effects in the European Union

In the wake of the financial and economic crisis Keynesian macroeconomic management has once again come into the spotlight. The following article takes a critical look at the practice of expansionary fiscal policy in the EU’s old member states between 1980 and 2005 in order to answer the question whether fiscal stimulus can be a successful response to the current crisis in both the short and the long run.     

Debt developments and fiscal adjustment in the EU

Since the financial crisis in 2008–09, concern over the sustainability of some EU countries’ sovereign debt has continued to mount higher and higher. This paper explores the ways in which the financial crisis caused the deterioration of European debt-to-GDP ratios, examines which countries are on sustainable debt paths and quantifies the fiscal adjustment required per country for debt sustainability.     

论“土地财政”的治理

土地在为地方政府汲取大量财政收入的同时,也引发不少负面效应,治理"土地财政"问题,应着力完善财政收支制度,合理配置财政权限,改善财政转移支付制度,改革现行土地制度减少地方政府利用土地创收的"热情"。     

Künftige Finanzplanung der EU — neue Prioritäten,höhere Effizienz?

On May 2, 2018, the European Commission proposed a limited and realistic increase for the EU’s next multi-annual financial framework 2021–2027. The draft implies a roughly constant common budget for the EU with a focus on European stabilisation policy and the provision of centralised public goods provision rather than agriculture and cohesion. This shift mirrors the priorities spelled out by Emanuel Macron. However, the Commission combined this pragmatism with its interest in improving budgetary flexibility and autonomy. There is no doubt that the EU27 faces difficult negotiations. EU Member States’ initial reactions to the European Commision’s recent proposals were dominated by juste retour considerations reminiscent of past negotiations. Strengthening EU expenditure through European added value and fundamentally reforming their own resource system, including the introduction of tax-based own resources, will end the deadlock surrounding net position thinking. A more fundamental view on the fiscal policy of the European Union is given in the last paper, which states that the EU requires a complete overhaul of the economic governance structure. It offers a tentative approach that avoids moral hazard problems as well as fallacies about conditional backstops during times of crisis.     

政府会计确认基础对财政透明度影响的跨国实证分析

以国际上44个国家为样本, 检验政府会计确认基础对于财政透明度的影响方向和程度, 探析国际上政府会计制度改革的影响结果以及提升财政透明度的政府会计制度需求. 发现: 以权责发生制为核心确认基础的政府财务报告信息和以收付实现制为核心确认基础的政府预算会计报告信息, 能够显著提升财政透明度; 社会文化是显著影响财政透明度的环境因素. 本文在控制样本国家制度环境因素的基础上, 提炼影响财政透明度的政府会计技术层面的跨国共性因素, 并对其影响程度进行定量分析. 这有助于客观、 综合考量国际上政府会计改革中制度环境因素、 技术因素及其影响结果, 从而在研判我国国情基础上适当借鉴国际经验.     

纵向财政失衡、FDI竞争与医疗卫生服务供给水平——兼论标尺竞争机制下地区间的策略性行为北大核心CSSCI

关于医疗卫生服务供给不足的原因一直是社会各界高度关注的重点话题,现行的财政分权制度常被认为是最主要的原因。本文尝试将表征现行财政分权制度特征的三个要素,即纵向财政失衡、地区FDI竞争和地区间竞争模仿的策略性行为,与医疗卫生服务供给水平纳入同一分析框架,在对其理论机制分析的基础上,利用2007-2018年277个地级及以上城市面板数据,实证考察它们之间的关系特征及机制路径。研究发现,纵向财政失衡与地区FDI竞争对医疗卫生服务供给水平均存在显著的抑制作用,同时,地区FDI竞争对纵向财政失衡的负向抑制作用具有正向调节效应。进一步分析发现,地方政府间的标尺竞争使其在医疗卫生服务供给行为上表现出明显的策略模仿,医疗卫生服务供给水平呈明显的空间溢出效应。异质性分析发现,发达地区医疗卫生服务供给水平受抑制的主因是FDI竞争所致,欠发达地区则主要缘于纵向财政失衡的显著影响。机制分析发现,纵向财政失衡通过作用于财政支出结构与医疗卫生支出效率两种方式实现对医疗卫生服务供给水平的抑制,而FDI竞争则主要是通过扭曲财政支出结构的方式实现其抑制作用。本文的研究丰富了医疗卫生服务供给不足制度性成因探寻的文献,对于如何全面推进新一轮财税体制改革、深化医疗卫生体制改革、优化政绩考核指标等具有借鉴意义。     

土地财政阻滞市场化改革的进程了吗?——来自中国省级层面的经验证据

本文首先提炼出一个关于中国渐进式改革推进机制的假说,然后以此为分析框架,阐述土地财政阻滞中国市场化改革的内在逻辑,最后运用1999~2014年中国省际面板数据,实证检验了上述理论假设.研究结果表明:(1)利用固定效应、DIF-GMM和SYS-GMM模型估计显示,土地财政与市场化改革之间的系数均在5%的水平下显著为负,土地财政每增加一单位,市场化改革的进程平均降低0.45个百分点;(2)采用土地财政依赖度替代土地财政,用同样的方法估计得出,土地财政依赖度每上升1%,市场化改革的推进平均下降0.36%,回归结果依然一致;(3)通过构建财政分权和土地财政的交互项,经克服内生性的DIF-GMM与SYS-GMM模型检验发现,财政分权对市场化改革的进程也存在影响,财政分权通过土地财政这一中介而对市场化改革的推进产生阻碍,这种中介效应的平均影响程度为0.25%,在控制了影响市场化改革的多种因素后,估计结果依旧稳健.本文的研究为市场化改革停滞原因的探究提供了新的经验证据.     

The new EU countries and euro adoption

In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.     

财政压力与地方政府行为——基于教育事权改革的准自然实验

大规模减税降费时期,各界对财政可持续性问题尤为关注。在这种"紧日子"的财政压力环境下,地方政府会表现出怎样的行为倾向,目前的证据还相对匮乏且不系统。本文以2010年教育事权改革为准自然实验,研究了伴随事权改革而形成的财政压力对地方收支行为的影响。实证结果表明,为了实现中央政府提出的"2012年国家性财政教育经费占GDP比重4%"的目标,地方政府的教育支出规模经历了快速扩张。在应对急剧支出需求所带来的财政压力时,地方政府没有扩大税基或强化征管,而是以牺牲其他支出的增长为代价,且在目标实现后,这类支出未得到弥补或改善。本文的研究对中国财政体制改革和现阶段减税降费具有重要启示:一方面,在财政支出偏好和基本格局未得到根本改变的情况下,应防范民生性公共服务为财政压力买单;另一方面,在关系到各级政府切身利益的财政体制或税费制度改革时,应予以适当的转移支付支持,避免改革对中国公共服务区域不均等程度的加剧。     

Dauerhafter vertikaler Finanzstreit zwischen Bund und Ländern

In 2009, the German federal parliament (“Bundestag”) and the German federal council (“Bundesrat”) reassigned the German vehicle tax from the level of Laender to the federal level (“Bund”). The new Article 106b of the German basic law contents permanent vertical “compensation amounts” from the federal level to the level of Laender. It has created a new vertical financial flow between the Bund and the Laender. This change in the architecture of the German federal system of financial relations must be analysed in the context of permanent fiscal disputes between the Bund and the Laender. The author shows the fiscal outcomes for the Laender budgets in recent years and the meaning in the context of further changes of vertical fiscal relations in context of the agreement with the Laender and the Bund on the reform of the federal fiscal equalisation scheme from 2020.     

改革转移支付制度:基于公共服务均等化的分析

我国分税制改革以来,转移支付制度发挥了其应有的作用,但转移支付制度需要进一步改革。基于公共服务均等化要求,应强化我国转移支付地区间横向均衡功能,同时转移支付支付制度改革应作为规范政府间财政关系改革整体中的一个部分协调进行;应依据性质对转移支付归类,一类为用于解决纵向和横向不均衡问题的均衡性转移支付,另一类为解决外溢性等问题的专项转移支付。     

经济欠发达地区财政收入增长影响因素研究——基于山东菏泽的样本分析

生财、聚财、用财,其中生财是根本,聚财是关键。1994年分税制改革以来,我国财政实力得到了极大增强。但是地方财政困难问题日益突出,特别是在经济欠发达地区,地方财政困难就更加显著。本文以欠发达地区财政收入增长影响因素作为研究对象,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,选取样本地区山东省菏泽市1994-2009年的GDP以及三次产业增加值等数据,采用弹性分析、相关性分析及自向量回归模型分析等方法进行分析。通过对样本的分析,本文认为经济欠发达地区财政收入增长要遵循可持续增长的道路。提出要加强服务意识,培植适合本地发展的骨干财源以及深化财税体制改革等具体措施。     

The case against a common fiscal boost in Europe

Policymakers in the EU member states are currently shaping rescue packages to prevent the financial crisis hitting their economies with unmitigated force. Each government is responding to the emerging problems with a country-specific set of measures. Given the global nature of the crisis, would coordinated action at the European level not be a better approach? Was the German government — much-criticised for its initial reluctance to adopt massive fiscal stimulation measures — right after all to exploit the option value of waiting in a situation of high uncertainty?     

探索入世后的中国财政补贴

本文在分析中国财政补贴的基础上,结合世界贸易组织关于补贴的多项规定,阐述了外向经济发展中的中国财政补贴所面临的挑战与改革,并提出了入世后财政补贴与反补贴的应对策略。     

政府财政层级改革探讨

随着市场经济体制改革的深入发展,我国现行的政府层级与之相对应的财政层级构架已不符合市场经济体制的要求,阻碍了我国经济的发展和经济体制改革进程。然而政府层级改革,关系到国家政权的稳定,只能循序渐进稳步推行。目前试行的"省管县"财政体制和"乡财县管"财政管理方式的改革,为我国政府层级改革创造了条件,加快了我国构建三级政府的步伐。     

我国行政单位财务管理存在的问题与对策研究

随着我国财政体制改革的推进和新的公共财政体制的逐步建立,行政单位的财务管理也暴露出不足,笔者根据自身工作经验,对新财政体制下行政单位财务管理问题进行了深入的思考,并针对相关问题提出了一些有建设性的对策.     

我国财政体制60年:演进、运行与优化

财政体制改革是经济体制改革的一块"硬骨头",它的调整涉及方方面面的利益。勾勒其制度变迁轨迹、分析总结其演变规律,有益于进一步理顺中央与地方政府间的财政关系。因此,回顾建国60年来我国财政体制改革的过程,展望其未来一定时期的发展趋向,并结合经济体制改革的目标模式,优化我国现代公共财政体制是当前财政学界一个亟待破解的重要课题。