Fair wages, unemployment and technological change in a global economy

This paper analyzes the effects of global and national technological change on employment and relative wages in an integrated two-country world (“Europe” and “America”), where both countries are characterized by equilibrium unemployment due to fair wage constraints. The asymmetry between the countries arises from country-specific preferences towards wage inequality, with Europe's preferences being more egalitarian. Furthermore, we look at integration between this two-country world and a third country (“low-wage south”). We derive an analytical tool, the Virtual Integrated Equilibrium, that allows us to adapt Dixit and Norman's Integrated Equilibrium approach to a situation where both countries have endogenous unemployment levels.     

Does self-employment reduce unemployment?

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between self-employment and unemployment rates. On the one hand, high unemployment rates may lead to start-up activity of self-employed individuals (the “refugee” effect). On the other hand, higher rates of self-employment may indicate increased entrepreneurial activity reducing unemployment in subsequent periods (the “entrepreneurial” effect). This paper introduces a new two-equation vector autoregression model capable of reconciling these ambiguities and estimates it for data from 23 OECD countries between 1974 and 2002. The empirical results confirm the existence of two distinct relationships between unemployment and self-employment: the “refugee” and “entrepreneurial” effects. We also find that the “entrepreneurial” effects are considerably stronger than the “refugee” effects.     

Building trust in international alliances

Two facts stand out unambiguously in today's global business. One, international alliances are proliferating, underscoring the strategic importance managers increasingly attach to “competition through cooperation.” Two, trust is key to successful international alliances. Together, these two facts point to the need to better understand trust, a task that was attempted in an earlier article (Parkhe, 1998). Yet such understanding, while necessary, is not sufficient. This article, the second of a two-part series, shows how partners can proactively manage an alliance relationship in order to develop trust. Toward this goal, the discussion includes trust generation through process-based, characteristic-based, and institutional-based mechanisms, which are to a significant degree within alliance managers' control. Managers must also be mindful of several critical features of alliance dynamics. These are described in some detail, as is the need to appropriately “calibrate” trust level in an alliance to the lifecycle stage of the alliance. With proper management attention, too much and too little trust can be avoided.     

Fair,Efficient and Envy-Free Bargaining: An Experimental Test of the Brams-Taylor Adjusted Winner Mechanism

The Adjusted Winner mechanism for two-player bargaining has been theoretically shown to produce “fair” (efficient and envy-free) outcomes (Brams and Taylor 1996). We study this claim experimentally in a bilateral bargaining game of incomplete information for two divisible goods using three information conditions. Results indicate that the Adjusted Winner mechanism can be quite effective in achieving both efficient, equitable and envy-free outcomes in an experimental setting but results vary greatly depending on the knowledge that each party has of the preferences of their bargaining partner. Under conditions of common knowledge, when players have competing preferences, their bilateral decisions converge toward efficient outcomes, yet only one-third can be classified as “envy-free.” In an environment where there is more uncertainty about preferences, pronounced strategic bidding emerges yet the result is twice as many envy-fee outcomes with increased levels of efficiency. Despite the fact that players dramatically misrepresent their true valuation for objects when ordinal preferences are commonly known to be complementary, both efficiency and envy-freeness approach maximum levels.     

Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation

Recently, two stylized facts about the behavior of the U.S. economy have emerged: first, macroeconomic aggregates appear to be less volatile post-1984 than in the preceding 2 decades; second, monetary policy appears more responsive to inflationary pressures – and thereby more “stabilizing” – during the Volcker/Greenspan chairmanships relative to earlier regimes. Does a causal relationship exist between these two observations? In particular, has “better” policy by the Federal Reserve Board contributed significantly to the lessened volatility of the U.S. economy? This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) specification to address these questions, examining the advantages and limitations of such an approach. In contrast with much of the existing research on these topics, I find that most of the quantitatively significant changes in volatility are attributed to breaks in the non-policy portion of the structural VAR, and not to the identified policy equation.     

Globalization and the ‘confidence game’

We show that governments in developing countries have an incentive to play the “confidence game” — wherein the need to win the confidence of the international capital market ‘can actually prevent a country from following otherwise sensible policies and force it to follow policies that it would normally consider perverse’. This incentive arises because of a combination of a ‘conformity bias’ and ‘good news bias’ in governmental decision making in an open economy, which results in inefficient outcomes which increases rather than decreases the threat of devaluation. While institutions that encourage greater transparency and the public revelation of information, may often mitigate this inefficiency, on some occasions increased transparency may even exacerbate the inefficiency.     

Of bears, bumble-bees, and spiders: the role of expatriates in controlling foreign subsidiaries

This article investigates the role of expatriate managers in multinational companies. We discuss three key organizational functions of expatriation: position filling, management development, and organization development. In the last function, organization development, international transfers are used as an informal coordination and control strategy through socialization and the building of informal communication networks. The article explores this role of international transfers in greater detail, but also discusses a more formal way in which expatriates can control subsidiaries. The following metaphors for these different control functions of expatriation are introduced: “bear” (formal direct control), “bumble-bee” (socialization), and “spider” (informal communication). A large-scale mail survey offers empirical evidence for the bear, bumble-bee and spider roles and shows under which circumstances they are most effective. Being aware of the different control functions of expatriation and the circumstances under which they are most effective can help managers to use expatriate assignments as a more strategic tool.     

The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the “mirage” view that pegs do not really peg with the “fear of floating” view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the exchange rate regime matters. This can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. We demonstrate that the “mirage” view is somewhat misleading and incomplete. Pegs frequently break, but many do last. Also, there is a high degree of flipping, that is, the re-formation of pegs that have broken. Thus, a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. We also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates. While the “fear of floating” view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility, we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates, both today and in the future.     

Considerations on “Research on non-market actions: A commentary essay”

This commentary is in response to the commentary, “Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay” [Wang, C-J. Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay. J Bus Res (2008)] on the paper, “First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share” [Usero B, Fernández Z, First come, first served: How market and non-market actions influence pioneer market share. J Bus Res (2008), doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2008.07.005]. The commentary responds directly to Wang's [Wang, C-J. Research on Non-Market Actions: A Commentary Essay. J Bus Res (2008)] comments and proposes further lines of research that integrate the competitive dynamic approach with studies of non-market actions.     

Human capital and financial equilibrium

This article investigates the effect of incorporating human capital—an expansion of the investment opportunity set—into the analysis of portfolio investment decisions. The “production function” of human capital displays decreasing returns to scale. The return on human capital is a product of two factors: a “market” return and return unique to each individual. Financial equilibrium results are derived and tested empirically using U.S. data and an international sample. The main findings are that demand for financial assets relates positively to human capital risk and negatively to financial capital risks.     

Linking multi-channel customer behavior with shopping motives: An empirical investigation of a German retailer

Operating multiple channels, in store as well as non-store, allows a retailer to cater to the different shopping motives of its customers. This research into the buying behavior of 525 customers of a multi-channel retailer that operates five channels in Germany shows that most customers use only one channel within a buying process, selecting the channel that best satisfies their shopping motives in each situation. Based on exploratory qualitative and quantitative research, this study identifies five shopping motives: “recreational orientation”, “convenience orientation”, “independence orientation”, “delivery-related risk aversion” and “product- and payment-related risk aversion”. In the majority of the store channels examined in this study (chain stores and bakeries), single-channel users primarily look to satisfy emotional and social needs. Single-channel users of non-store channels (catalogue and online-shop) look for convenience and strive for independence. Multi-channel users, who obtain their information from the online-shop and then make their purchase in the chain store, are combining the independence of online-shop information with the reduction of risks associated with buying products in the chain store. These findings can be used to develop recommendations for managing the individual channels.     

Corruption and Companies: The Use of Facilitating Payments

Making use of facilitating payments is a very widespread form of corruption. These consist of small payments or gifts made to a person – generally a public official or an employee of a private company – to obtain a favour, such as expediting an administrative process; obtaining a permit, licence or service; or avoiding an abuse of power. Unlike the worst forms of corruption, facilitating payments do not usually involve an outright injustice on the part of the payer as they are entitled to what they request. This may be why public opinion tends to condone such payments; often they are assumed to be unavoidable and are excused on the grounds of low wages and lack of professionalism among public officials and disorganisation in government offices. Many companies that take the fight against “grand” corruption very seriously are inclined to overlook these “petty” transgressions, which are seen as the grease that makes the wheels of the bureaucratic machine turn more smoothly. Despite this, facilitating payments have a pernicious effect on the working of public and private administrations: all too often they are the slippery slope to more serious forms of corruption; they impose additional costs on companies and citizens; and in the long run they sap the ethical foundations of organisations. Although many articles on corruption mention facilitating payments, there have been no systematic studies from a company’s point of view. This article thus focuses on facilitating payments from the point of view of the company that makes the payment, either as the active partner (when it is the company that takes the initiative) or as the passive partner (when the official or employee is the instigator).     

Choosing and upgrading financial services dealers in the US and UK

This paper addresses a gap in the international literature aimed at understanding the impact of the marketing mix on choosing and upgrading business-to-business financial services dealers. This study involves two important financial services markets (foreign exchange and bonds) in two leading countries in financial services (the United States and the United Kingdom). It provides a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of marketing mix variables (“price”, “product”, and “promotion” in this case) in determining (a) choice of dealers and (b) how a utilized dealer may achieve the sought-after status of being among the top three dealers of a customer. The impact of the marketing mix variables on the choice of dealer is significantly greater in the US relative to the UK. However, a two-stage analysis shows no significant country differences in the impact of the marketing mix on how a dealer is upgraded to a top three status with a customer. Further, the effects of the individual marketing mix variables are more nearly equal in the determination of whether a utilized dealer is among the top three dealers relative to the choice stage. Finally, consistent with our hypothesis, the bond market is more price sensitive relative to foreign exchange and the foreign exchange market is more product sensitive than the bond market.     

On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations

The classic Sargent–Wallace–Lucas (SWL) rational expectations-flexible price model is usually interpreted as implying “policy ineffectiveness”: systematic monetary rules cannot affect the distribution of real output. A contrary but not widely-appreciated result of Dotsey and King suggests that there exist “prospective feedback” rules (future money depending systematically on current but as yet unobserved information) which improve output distribution by means of improving agents’ ability to perceive relative prices.We show the Dotsey–King proposition in fact to be a colossal understatement: prospective feedback rules applied vigorously enough (and even “contemporaneous feedback” rules based on current interest rates, provided at least one prospective feedback is active) can in the limit drive price-perception errors to zero. This is not to say such a policy would be desirable. Feedback parameter combinations that reduce current price level misperception tend to produce high forecast error variances with respect to future prices, with attendant loss in capital market efficiency. Whatever the desirable frontier among these different social cost-producing variables, feedback parameters will in general be needed in order to get on the frontier as well as to move along it. Monetary policy clearly produces social gain even in a version of this model which contains no elements of price “friction,” inefficient use of available information, or asymmetry in information as between the government and the public.     

Customer satisfaction study via a latent segment model

The aim of this study is to apply a new conceptual model, and a new technique as an approach to the modelling of customers’ satisfaction, and to develop an overall satisfaction index (OSI). This study evaluates customers’ satisfaction of a certain public organization service, and argues that in order to estimate the global customers’ satisfaction measure we must appeal to methodologies recognizing that satisfaction must be understood as a latent variable, quantified through multiple indicators. Thus, it is natural that we consider the latent segment models (LSM) approach to proceed to the evaluation of customer's service satisfaction. As a result of these models estimation, we selected a three latent segment model, that is to say, the latent variable customer satisfaction has three classes: segment 1, with 50.4 percent of the customers, that represents “The Very Satisfied”, for those to whom everything is very well in the organization service; a segment 2, with 33.4 percent of the customers, representative of the “The Well Satisfied”, not totally satisfied with the quality of the organization, and a segment 3, with 16.2 percent of the customers, “Satisfaction Demanders”, thinking that organizational quality can be improved. Finally, we developed an overall satisfaction index which is important to show how the company as a whole is performing.     

Consumer Choices Under Small Probabilities: Overweighting or Underweighting?

This article provides a theoretical account and identifies boundary conditions for the common beliefs about the “overweighting of small probabilities”. Based on four studies, our results suggest that the weighting of probabilities is context-dependent. When the contrast in value is reduced or not presented in a decision problem, small probabilities are less likely to be overweighted. In addition, as the associated payoffs increase, the weights on small probabilities tend to diminish or even to be “underweighted”. However, there is an “interpersonal difference” in the weighting of probabilities which reflects the particular circumstances of individuals, including their wealth status. Some implications of small probabilities for marketing practices are also investigated and discussed.     

Effects of differential information on the after-market valuation of initial public offerings

This paper examines the after-market for initial public offerings (IPOs), particularly the security valuation effects of structural differences in available information. There is a diversity of information among issuing firms at the time of their offering and particularly under certain market conditions. Because this diversity decreases with time and after-market trading, the IPO market provides an ideal setting for testing errors due to differential information levels in early after-market valuation of IPO firms. We find evidence that during “hot” market conditions and for firms characterized by low levels of available information, the market values of issuing firms are more likely to be overestimated in the immediate after-market. We also find positive overestimation of market values to be more likely for larger IPOs and for those marketed by the less prestigious underwriters.     

Product specialization in international trade: A further investigation

In an influential paper, Schott [Schott. Peter K. (2004). “Across-product versus within-product specialization in international trade.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (2): 647–678] makes two empirical observations about U.S. imports. (1) The United States is increasingly sourcing the same product (however narrowly defined) from both developed and developing countries. That is, ‘across-product specialization’ has been decreasing. (2) The unit values of these multiple-sourced products are positively and significantly correlated with the capital and skill abundance of exporters and with the capital–labor ratios used by exporters. That is, endowments-driven ‘within-product specialization’ has been increasing. We show that both these observations extend to the imports of Brazil, India and Japan. However, our main finding is that observation (1) is largely driven by two factors. First, China is the dominant low-wage exporter of multiple-sourced products. Second, the most developed countries remain the primary exporters of multiple-sourced products. The U.S. case is the most extreme of our four importers: When China is deleted from the U.S. import data there is no trend in across-product specialization and rich exporters are increasing their trade share of multiple-sourced products. Since deleting China has no theoretical justification, these results must be viewed not as a contradiction of Schott's work but as a way of deepening our understanding of his empirical results.     

Accelerated internationalization by emerging markets’ multinationals: The case of the white goods sector

The emergence of a “second wave” of developing country multinational enterprises (MNEs) in a variety of industries is one of the characterizing features of globalization. This paper documents how emerging markets’ MNEs (EM-MNEs) may follow quite different patterns to reach, or at least approach, global competitiveness. In particular, it investigates how three EM-MNEs pursued global growth through accelerated internationalization combined with strategic and organizational innovation. Haier (China), Mabe (Mexico) and Arçelik (Turkey) emerged as multinationals in the large home appliances (so-called “white goods”) industry. The recipe for the success of these firms seems to lie in their ability to treat global competition as an opportunity to build capabilities, move into more profitable industry segments, and adopt strategies that turn latecomer status into a source of competitive advantage. At the same time, their experiences show that there are many strategies and trajectories for going global, consistent with a pluralistic conceptualization of globalization.     

Going public: The impact of insiders' holdings on the price of initial public offerings

Many entrepreneurs dream of seeing their company's securities trading in the public marketplace. Although going public has many benefits for a firm's founders and insiders, the process is often confusing and intimidating. One of the questions that investment bankers are asked frequently by insiders is, “What determines the price of a stock in the initial public offering?” This article presents empirical evidence that the stock price in an initial public offering (IPO) is directly related to the percentage of the firm's equity retained by the insiders. In other words, the offering price is relatively high when it appears that the insiders are not “bailing out” when the firm goes public.This research investigates equity ownership structure as a determinant of the pricing of IPOs. The hypothesis to be tested is: IPOs with higher (lower) insider holdings at the time of the offering are priced higher (lower) as a result of lower (higher) required rates of return. Support for the hypothesis is based on agency theory, which postulates that additional risk is created when there is a perceived separation of ownership and control.There are several implications of this research. First, a greater appreciation of the sophistication of the IPO market with regard to the actions of the insiders should be gained. Second, the reader's knowledge of the activity and relative pricing of IPOs during the 1978–1985 time period should be enhanced. Third, insiders should realize that actions regarding their relative equity holdings at the time of the offering have an impact on the price of the offering. Finally, the reader should recognize that even in “hot markets” the actions of insiders at the time of an initial public offering regarding the sale of equity are monitored by the market.