THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Interfuel substitution, a priori , seems to be of considerable importance in the economy of the United Kingdom. Consequently, an appropriate model is developed and estimated. All energy sources are demonstrated to be substitutable. Coal is the most price responsive with natural gas, oil and electrical following. The results are not inconsistent with other studies of energy substitution. Moreover, when the issue of the stability of the demand for energy types is considered, the suggestion that the demand for coal, oil, natural gas, and electrical energy have remained virtually constant over the past three decades.     

PERSONAL SECTOR WEALTH IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, 1920–56

In the United Kingdom there is a wide range of sources which make it possible to construct a series for components of personal wealth for the period 1920–56. The data are consistent with contemporary estimates produced for specific years in the 1920s and 1930s. They indicate that a stock-market boom and the effects of deflation and low interest rates on the nominal value of the national debt took the wealth/income ratio in the mid-1930s to a level not seen again until the housing boom of the 1980s.     

FINANCIAL INNOVATION, INFLATION AND THE STABIHTY OF THE DEMAND FOR BROAD MONEY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This note presents an estimate of a demand function for broad money (£M3) for the UK, 1964ii–1985iv. It shows no sign of structural instability due to Competition and Credit Control, and forecasts well for twenty quarters post-sample (1981i-1985iv). A key innovation is the allowance made for financial innovation by including the interest rate available on new, high-interest chequing accounts in the equation.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM 1830–1914

This paper presents a new annual series for United Kingdom gross national product, at current and constant prices, calculated from the expenditure side. These results differ significantly from previous estimates in that they go back to the beginning of the railway age on an annual basis and also in that the constant price estimates involve a detailed deflation of the main components of expenditure on consumption and capital formation. The implications of the new results are summarised, with particular reference to rates of growth and relative price changes, and an appendix describes the sources of the estimates.     

ON THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: THE CASE FOR A GOLDEN RULE

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long-run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long-run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic using SVAR, which was limited to a short-run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.