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构建住房需求结构、政策调控和价格的动态系统模型,依据2007-2021年40个重点城市季度数据,考量政策调控对于住房投机和房价波动实施效果。结果显示:住房投机推动了房价上涨,政府住房调控政策对房价波动影响差异显著;异质性分析显示,不同地区政策调控实施效果存在差异。鉴于此,应因城施策、分类指导,同时积极畅通房地产调控政策传导机制,提高传导效率,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。 相似文献
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自改革开放以来,我国经历了数轮房价调控,在各个经济发展阶段都起到了相应的作用,本文以近几轮房价调控政策演进为主线,总结了这几次改革的一般特点,为接下来我国的房价调控工作提供借鉴。 相似文献
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本文采纳2000年1月至2013年3月国房景气指数和消费者物价指数(CPI)数据,通过ADF检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、VAR模型和脉冲响应等实证方法检验了通货膨胀与房价之间的关系。结果表明:房价涨幅增加会刺激通货膨胀,通货膨胀也会影响房价,两者相互作用。要使房地产业健康发展,我国应该采纳保持房价适度增长、保持温和通货膨胀等宏观调控组合政策。 相似文献
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从分析房地产产品的双重特征出发,研完了住房的消费需求和投资需求对房价的影响,并以此为基础研究了调控房价政策的选择,提出调控房价政策要考虑到房地产产品的双重特征,要做到标本兼治,调改结合。 相似文献
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近几年我国房价居高不下,国家出台多项调控措施,希望稳定房价,但事与愿违,越调控房价越涨。目前,北京、上海、深圳等地住房价格竟然超过了美国。本文就美、韩两国调控房价的实施来看我国对调控房价的方向作粗浅的探讨。 相似文献
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本文通过建立包含异质性家庭、异质性厂商和金融机构的DSGE模型,分析对预期房价作出反应的货币政策和宏观审慎政策的传导机制和政策效果,研究不同政策的选择和协调问题。研究发现,首先,由于政策的作用范围不同,不同政策会对金融稳定和经济稳定产生不同影响。对预期房价作出反应的货币政策能够抑制住房需求和信贷供给,但也会抑制消费需求和产出;而对预期房价作出反应的逆周期LTV政策和逆周期资本充足率政策在应对房价波动导致的金融稳定问题时更加有的放矢。其次,外生冲击的来源会影响政策的选择和协调——当经济波动来源于需求冲击时,固定LTV政策搭配逆周期资本充足率的宏观审慎政策、不对预期房价作出反应的货币政策表现最优;当经济波动来源于供给冲击时,固定LTV政策搭配逆周期资本充足率的宏观审慎政策、对预期房价作出反应的货币政策表现最优。 相似文献
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This article investigates the impacts of the macroprudential policy of limitation on credit growth in housing market on Korean economy to find empirical and theoretical implications. Empirical results based on VAR models show that macroprudential policies like LTV and DTI in Korea have significant and persistent effect on real household credit and real house price. This article further addresses implications of optimal macroprudential and monetary policy in Korea by employing a standard DSGE model. The results suggest that the time-varying macroprudential policy responding to the borrower’s debt to income ratio is most effective in stabilizing household debt among the macroprudential policy rules considered, but produces a moderate downturn of the economy. 相似文献
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本文通过构建包含家庭住房抵押借款摩擦和银行贷款摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型,重点考察了异质性冲击下房价波动对金融稳定的影响。研究发现,房价上涨会导致银行风险溢价及杠杆率显著上升,进而加剧金融体系的内在不稳定。为降低房价波动及维护金融稳定,选取两类宏观审慎政策工具进行逆周期调控实验,结果表明,在住房需求冲击下,金融管理部门应选取贷款价值比政策,且应对房贷积极调控,而对房价进行中性调控。在最终产品部门生产率冲击、房地产部门生产率冲击及跨期偏好冲击下,应选取资本充足率政策,但对房贷和房价调控力度的把握则存在差异。本研究为厘清房价波动对金融稳定的动态传导机制,以及金融管理部门如何选取宏观审慎政策工具以稳定房价并降低系统性金融风险提供了启示。 相似文献
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Norman Miller Liang Peng Michael Sklarz 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2011,42(4):522-541
Using quarterly data for all 379 metropolitan statistic areas (MSAs) in the U.S. from 1980:1 to 2008:2, this paper empirically
studies the effect of house prices on local Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP). We compare the effects of predictable and unpredictable
house price changes, which we use to capture the collateral and wealth effects of house prices respectively. We further analyze
the relationship between the effects and household borrowing constraints, as well as the temporal pattern of the effects.
Our analysis provides the following findings. First, house price changes have significant effects on GMP growth, and the effect
of predictable changes (the collateral effect) is about three times stronger than the effect of unpredictable changes (the
wealth effect). Second, the persistent component of predictable changes has a stronger collateral effect than the novel component.
Third, when households are more financially constrained, the collateral effect is stronger, the wealth effect is weaker, and
the total effect remains unchanged. Finally, the effects last for eight quarters, and peak on the fourth quarter after house
price changes take place. 相似文献
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Angela Black Patricia Fraser Martin Hoesli 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2006,33(9-10):1535-1555
Abstract: This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values. Such a focus is warranted since housing constitutes a large fraction of most household portfolios, and its characteristics are such that, in contrast to what prevails in financial markets, arbitrage will be limited and hence correction toward 'true' value is likely to be a prolonged process. Using UK data and a time-varying present value approach, our results preclude the existence of an explosive rational bubble due to non-fundamental factors. We further find that intrinsic bubbles have an important role to play in determining actual house prices although price dynamics appear to impact, particularly in periods of strong deviation from fundamental value. Price dynamics are found to be driven by momentum behaviour. 相似文献
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We show that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with housing and collateralized borrowing predict a fall in house prices following positive government spending shocks. By contrast, we show that house prices in the United States rise persistently after identified positive government spending shocks. We clarify that the incorrect house price response is due to a general property of DSGE models—approximately constant shadow value of housing—and that modifying preferences and production structure cannot help in obtaining the correct house price response. Properly accounting for the empirical evidence on government spending shocks and house prices using a DSGE model therefore remains a significant challenge. 相似文献
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This paper studies the joint transitional dynamics of the foreclosures and house prices in a standard life‐cycle incomplete markets model with housing and a realistic long‐term mortgage structure. We calibrate our model to match several long‐term features of the U.S. housing market, and analyze the effects of several unexpected and permanent shocks on the house price and the foreclosure rate both across the steady states and along the transition between the steady states. We examine permanent, unexpected shocks to the risk‐free interest rate, the minimum down‐payment ratio, and unemployment. During the transition, these shocks create large movements in house prices. More importantly, the foreclosure dynamics are quite significant along the transition compared to the steady‐state changes, and there are strong feedbacks between foreclosures and house prices. We assess the effects of a temporary reduction in the risk‐free interest rate, which has moderate effects on house prices but little effect on foreclosure dynamics. We also study the effects of an ex ante macroprudential policy, which establishes a minimum down‐payment requirement at a higher threshold. Such a macroprudential policy helps substantially stabilize both house prices and foreclosures. 相似文献
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Velma Zahirovic-Herbert Geoffrey K. Turnbull 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(2):113-130
This paper develops an empirical framework for taking into account the effects of endogenous liquidity on price capitalization
estimates. Changes in school attendance zones in the East Baton Rouge Parish public school district provide a natural experiment
for studying how changes in school characteristics affect house prices and liquidity. House price and selling time, or liquidity,
are simultaneously determined in search markets. The empirical model exploits variation in the surrounding neighborhood market
conditions pertinent to each house to identify the system of price and liquidity equations. The estimates are consistent with
search-market theory in that liquidity absorbs part of the capitalization of school quality.
相似文献
Velma Zahirovic-HerbertEmail: |
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Patricia Fraser Martin Hoesli Lynn McAlevey 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(1):71-91
This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970–2005.
Utilizing a dynamic present value model, we find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s
and 1980s and from 2000 to date. We model the bubble component that is related to fundamentals (the intrinsic component),
making it possible to highlight whether a bubble still exists after that component is accounted for. We then analyze any remaining
bubble to detect any momentum behavior. Much of the overvaluation of the housing market is found to be due to price dynamics
rather than an overreaction to fundamentals.
相似文献
Lynn McAleveyEmail: |