MAJOR CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THE NEXT SNA: AN OVERVIEW

The first draft of the new manual for the System of National Accounts will be circulated during 1990. The major changes to be incorporated in it are highlighted in this article. A full list of all changes is available from the United Nations Statistical Office and will be included as an annex to the final manual.     

AN ECONOMIC CORE SYSTEM AND THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS MODULE FOR THE NETHERLANDS

In this article the authors discuss some elements of the structure of an overall integrating system of economy-related statistics. First of all attention is paid to the core of such a system. Next, the various types of modules which could supplement this core are described. Modules with a social connotation are discussed with the help of the Socio-economic Accounts which have been developed recently in the Netherlands. Finally, the link between the Socio-economic Accounts and the National Accounts Core System is addressed and numerically illustrated.     

THE CASE FOR PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSIONS IN A SERVICE ECONOMY

The elderly consume more labour‐intensive services than young individuals. This makes them vulnerable to rising costs of services due to higher wages, which can be caused by increased capital accumulation. This paper shows that in a model with a service sector, the golden‐rule capital stock is lower and dynamic inefficiency is more likely to occur than in the conventional one‐sector model. This implies that in many cases, a positive Pay‐As‐You‐Go tax maximises long‐run welfare in a service economy. Calculations based on data from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands show that the long‐run optimal degree of funding coincides with the current situation in these countries.     

FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS AND BALANCE SHEETS: ISSUES FOR THE REVISION OF SNA

This paper is an abridged version of a report with the same title originally written for the United Nations Statistical Office, as a part of the ongoing review of the System of National Accounts. Its purpose is to identify the issues in the financial statistics area that need to be considered in the course of the review. Particular attention is paid to problems of harmonization of SNA with related standards of the International Monetary Fund. The 1968 SNA provided a place in the framework for financial accounts and balance sheets, but did not develop them in any detail. In the 19 years since the revised SNA was published, policy and analytic interest in financial questions has greatly increased, and much work has been done on conceptual development and statistical compilation of financial statistics, both within and outside of the SNA framework. It is now apparent that some of the early decisions taken when financial considerations were not the focus of attention need reconsideration, some of the makeshift solutions that have grown up over time are no longer adequate, and some issues that have not been dealt with at all need to be addressed. This paper is not intended to propose solutions, but rather to reflect questions that have been raised, and to present alternatives that have been proposed.     

A NOTE ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH: THE CASE FOR AN ACCIDENT TAX AND A SAFETY BONUS SCHEME

Using a fairly general principal-agent model in which both firms and workers can affect the risk of a workplace accident, this note shows theoretically that an accident tax and/or a safety bonus scheme could unambiguously reduce the incidence of workplace accidents, contrary to the ambiguous theoretical results that are obtained with safety regulations     

THE ACCOUNTING PRICES OF THE FACTORS OF PRODUCTION: AN ESTIMATION OF THEIR PARAMETERS IN THE CASE OF GREECE

It is widely acknowledged that when accounting prices are used instead of market prices in project analysis they provide more adequate indicators of the social acceptability of the alternative investment projects. The first objective of this paper is the formulation of the methodology required for the determination of the accounting prices of the factors of production capital and labour in the case of Greece. The second is the estimation of the parameters needed for their valuation and the third is the derivation, under certain assumptions, of the actual accounting prices of capital and labour and their comparison with market prices in the case of Greece.     

ACCOUNTING FOR GOLD: THE SOUTH AFRICAN CASE

Real output measures in the UN System of National Accounts should be continually re-evaluated, to ensure they are providing indicators appropriate for user needs. The South African gold mining industry is an intriguing case in which the conventional output indicators are highly misleading for various analytical purposes, largely because the usual background assumptions are particularly invalid. Due to the size of the industry, its precise treatment can have sizeable effects on estimates of the growth of GDP, particularly over periods when the price of gold changes. A number of easily produced additional output measures are suggested to help analyse productivity growth and differences between the growth of real output and real incomes.     

ON THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: THE CASE FOR A GOLDEN RULE

This paper uses the SVAR methodology to investigate the effects of public investment on GDP and, more specifically, the effects of the introduction of a golden rule of public finance. We extend the existing literature by estimating a model for the British economy that takes into account long-run factors such as public debt accumulation and policy interactions. We find that in such a long-run framework, public investment has a significant and permanently positive effect on GDP; this result runs counter to the most recent literature on the topic using SVAR, which was limited to a short-run specification. We further find, by comparing different subsamples, that the introduction of the golden rule in 1997 strengthened the positive effect of public investment.     

制度变革对农田生产效率影响的空间分析——以新疆生产建设兵团某团三连棉花生产效率为例

根据对新疆生产建设兵团某团三连2007年与2008年棉田调查,对两年的生产投入、生产效率进行了空间对比,发现93.6%的田块投入减少;投入增加的棉田分散于各个方位,但多为交通中等通达区位;投入率减少程度较大的田块多分布在林带旁。生产效率上处于耕地外围边缘的田块呈高度增长;生产效率变化率成负的田块多离居住区较近或处于耕地边缘;生产效率变化率中等的农田占总数的44.87%,且连片集中分布;无论正向高变化率还是负向高变化率整体上呈分散状态。究其原因,制度的变革降低了棉花生产的投入成本,提高了田间管理效率,并促使职工对区位较差田块的重视。此外,职工对制度变革的态度在相当程度上也影响着农田生产效率,进而影响了棉花生产效率的空间分布。     

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION SERVICES INDIRECTLY MEASURED: ESTIMATES FOR FRANCE AND THE U.K. BASED ON THE APPROACH ADOPTED IN THE 1993 SNA

The 1993 SNA proposes a revised treatment of the output of financial intermediaries which treats intermediation services in part as a component of final demand, so that GDP is higher than the 1968 SNA suggests. In this paper we present the results of attempts to estimate FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured) for France and the U.K. The French study uses a reference rate calculated to ensure that no imputation is made with respect to own funds, while the U.K. study relies on a market interest rate. Both studies present an allocation of intermediation services by industry as well as by category of demand. The adjustments to GDP are of similar magnitudes in both countries.     

RATIONALE FOR DISSENT: THE CASE OF FOMC MEMBERS

This paper investigates monetary policymakers' rationale for dissent to test for a hypothesized difference in policy preferences between bank presidents and members of the Board of Governors. The paper analyzes the cited reasons for dissent, the identity of the dissenter, and uses multiple regression to make inferences regarding the differences.
Examining the identity of dissenters and the given reasons for dissent yields four conclusions, (i) A broad base of bank presidents dissent for tighter policy because they want to control inflation by keeping monetary aggregates within targeted ranges. (ii) On the other hand, board members' dissent for tighter policy is dominated by one man–Henry Wallich—who apparently was disturbed by the inflationary outbreak during the late 1970s and early 1980s. (Hi) Several board members dissent for looser policy to stimulate the real economy, (iv) But only a few bank presidents, primarily from the Northeast, dissent for looser policy with the same objective.
Regression analysis supports the assertion that bank presidents dissenting for tighter policy do so to keep monetary aggregates on target in order to control inflation. The analysis confirms Wallich's focus on inflation during the late 1970s and early 1980s. It also allows for the possibility that the various board members dissenting for looser policy either have an inherent preference for looser policy or have diverse reasons for dissent.     

广州古迹旅游资源开发新探

旅游业在世纪之初作为争创新优势的切入点及其在假日经济中的领衔作用已成为公认的事实。南越国宫署御苑遗址发掘的新进展及其在１９９９年被列入我国考古十大发现的消息,引发了广州古迹旅游资源开发的老题新议,本文在强调了古迹旅游资源是构筑城市文化特色的重要内涵和底蕴基础上,进而分析了广州古迹旅游景点在旅游经济中的贡献度、地位及其不足,提出了广州古迹旅游资源开发新构想和实施开发构想的政策措施。     

THE BUILT-IN FLEXIBILITY OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION TAXES IN NEW ZEALAND

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in New Zealand, based on the 2001 tax structure and expenditure patterns. Using analytical expressions for revenue elasticities at the individual and aggregate levels, together with a simulated income distribution, values for New Zealand were obtained. Results using equi-proportional income changes suggest that the aggregate income and consumption tax revenue elasticities are both fairly constant as mean income increases, at around 1.3 and 0.95 respectively. This latter estimate assumes that increases in disposable income are accompanied by approximately proportional increases in total expenditure. If there is a tendency for the savings proportion to increase as disposable income increases, a somewhat lower total consumption tax revenue elasticity, of around 0.9, is obtained for 2001 income levels. However, non-equiproportional income changes are more realistic. Allowing for regression towards the geometric mean income reduces these elasticities, giving an elasticity for income and consumption taxes combined that is only slightly above unity. Examination of the tax-share weighted expenditure elasticities for various goods also revealed that, despite the adoption of a broad based GST at a uniform rate in New Zealand, the persistence of various excises has an important effect on the overall consumption tax revenue elasticity, especially for individuals at relatively low income levels.     

CHINA'S ECONOMIC REFORM: THE NEXT STEP

China's economic reforms succeeded in decentralizing decision making power down to the local and enterprise level. This decentralization has permitted a vibrant non-state sector to emerge alongside the state sector. Growing out of the state plan accounts for much of China's spectacular economic growth. However, productivity in the state sector has experienced little improvement. One can trace recurrent macroeconomic imbalances and inflation to the state policy to provide cheap credit to cover the huge losses sustained by state-owned enterprises. Attempts to reimpose controls to cool down an overheated economy repeatedly have halted the momentum for economic reform. Failure to introduce banking and financial reforms threatens future growth of the non-state sector. The success of such reforms depends critically on efforts to restructure and privatize state-owned enterprises. Growing out of the state plan requires officials to adopt an explicit policy to stop supporting the losses in the state owned enterprises.     

NEEDS FOR CONSISTENCY AND FLEXIBILITY IN MEASURES OF REAL PRODUCT BY INDUSTRY1

Study of relationships between outputs, inputs, prices, and final demands in the United States can be strengthened by: (1) eliminating disparities in official measures of output (mainly the Index of Industrial Production and Real Gross National Product), and (2) obtaining agreement on the conceptual framework for studying these relationships. Real Gross Product has provided a consistent framework for study of productivity and prices for the total economy and for broad industry groups, but has not easily permitted the analysis of commodity detail particularly for intermediate commodities. Industrial Production, on the other hand, has considerably extended the detailed analysis of commodity output but has not provided a basis for systematic analysis of productivity and prices within a consistent framework for the total economy. This paper illustrates the effect of some of the disparities between Industrial Production and Gross Product in manufacturing on the analysis of relations between prices and output and prices and productivity. This is done for the 1954–1958 period when benchmark data are available for both measures. Inconsistencies for a number of industries cause difficulties in analyzing the interplay of demand and cost influences on price changes; for example, industries which rise above average in output and below in price in one measure are not the same as those in similar price-quantity relationships in the other measure. The paper concludes by recommending improvements in data and concept in order to eliminate some of the disparities and to enable analysts to reap the benefits of both types of measures of real output.     

我国申报世界文化遗产的条件与对策——西湖案例研究

首先对过去几年来杭州西湖申报世界遗产的工作做一简单回顾,并从遗产价值、城市发展和旅游管理三个角度对其在申报过程中暴露出来的问题加以分析,提出三个对策:①唯一能反映杭州1000多年来的地域文化特色、统领西湖美学价值和茶文化、并在国际上具有深远影响的文化现象,是佛教禅宗。进而认为,西湖只有作为禅宗美学最完美的物证,才能真正认识到西湖巨大的遗产价值。②建设部门应尽快出台“景观条例”(landscape ordinance),在建筑设计和广告设计阶段就介入管理,加强历史景观的保护和恢复。③加强旅游点环境容量研究,出台相关游人限制措施。     

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE IN THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PROTECTION: LEGISLATED V. ADMINISTERED PROTECTION

In endogenous tariff theory the outcome of the political process (the tariff) is a strictly private good from the perspective of the specific-factors in an industry. That is, the benefits from participation in the political process are fully captured by the participant group. We argue that this is an institutional assumption by showing that an alternative, administered protection, involves the enforcement of a rule that, once written, is applied to all industry groups, where applicable. Attempts to increase protection therefore result in benefits to all import competing industry groups. In a short-run neo-classical model of trade with no intermediate goods, you therefore get a political free rider problem that you do not get with legislated tariffs. Further, it is argued that the distinction between these forms of protection is of both empirical and philosophical relevance.