管理层能力与股价崩盘风险——基于盈余管理中介效应的检验

利用2007—2016年我国证券市场上市公司A股数据,研究管理层能力与股价崩盘风险之间的关系,并在此基础上探究不同盈余管理方式在两者关系中发挥的作用。结果表明：上市公司管理层能力越强,股价崩盘风险越小;真实盈余管理程度在管理层能力与股价崩盘风险关系中表现的中介效应更显著。     

机构调研、真实盈余管理与金融市场稳定研究

本文利用深市A股上市公司2014-2021年的相关数据，考察了机构调研行为对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现，机构调研与股价崩盘风险存在U型关系，低于阈值的机构调研行为将会降低股价崩盘风险，超过阈值的机构调研行为将会加剧股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现，真实盈余管理水平在U型关系中发挥了完全中介作用，且U型关系在民营企业中更加显著。     

股价崩盘风险与线上投资者关系管理——基于危机公关的视角

本研究以2009—2017年我国A股上市公司为样本,实证检验股价崩盘风险是否会对上市公司未来线上投资者关系管理产生影响。研究结果表明,当上市公司股价崩盘风险较高时,其后续在线上与投资者沟通互动的效率更高,说明公司通过加强线上投资者关系管理建立事后补救机制以进行危机公关。进一步分析表明,公司信息透明度和高管是否拥有金融会计类工作背景对上述关系具有调节作用,即当上市公司信息透明度较低和拥有较多金融会计类工作背景的高管时,股价崩盘风险对线上投资者关系管理的正向影响更显著,尤其体现在对线上投资者问答回复率的正向影响。本研究反映了测算股价崩盘风险在公司治理角度的信号作用与预测意义,并揭示了信息时代投资者关系管理来自资本市场的决定因素,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

上市公司敷衍投资者对股价崩盘风险的影响北大核心

基于深圳证券交易所"互动易"平台上的问答数据,实证检验上市公司敷衍投资者的行为对公司股价崩盘风险的影响,结果显示:上市公司回答投资者提问的及时性和切题性越低,其股价崩盘风险便越高。进一步分析显示,上市公司敷衍投资者行为通过两条途径加剧了股价崩盘风险,一是敷衍行为不利于投资者获取公司信息,加剧市场信息不对称;二是敷衍行为有损公司声誉和投资者信任,容易导致投资者在上市公司面临利空消息影响时"用脚投票"、加剧股价波动。上述研究结论的政策启示在于:要推动上市公司主动加强自愿性信息披露和投资者关系管理,实现与投资者之间的良性互动,在与投资者沟通中避免敷衍、搪塞的行为;监管当局可考虑采取"引导优先"的策略,发挥声誉机制的激励和约束作用,引导上市公司自觉重视、及时处理投资者的网络提问,充分发挥网络平台的信息沟通功能、促进资本市场的平稳发展。     

机构投资者降低了股价崩盘风险吗?

本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司为样本,考察了机构投资者持股比例与股价崩盘风险之间的关系。研究发现,机构投资者持股显著增大了公司股价未来崩盘的风险。在考虑了机构投资者异质性和内生性等因素的影响后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,在信息不对称程度较高的公司中,机构投资者持股比例与股价崩盘风险之间的正相关关系更强;公司所在地区的制度环境越完善,上述正相关关系越弱。渠道分析表明,机构投资者对股价崩盘风险的正向影响一定程度上源于它加剧了信息不对称。本文拓展了股价崩盘风险影响因素研究,丰富了机构投资者持股经济后果的相关文献,对监管部门积极引导机构投资者、维护资本市场平稳健康发展,具有一定的启示意义。     

企业对外担保与股价崩盘风险——基于A股上市公司的经验证据

近年来,企业债务违约造成的"担保危机"接连爆发,而上市公司因对外担保所引发的股价崩盘事件也层出不穷,在此背景下,本文探讨企业对外担保与股价崩盘风险之间的内在关系,并对其作用机理进行了展开分析.研究发现,企业对外担保比重与股价崩盘风险呈显著正相关关系,且在信息透明度较低、公司治理较差和行业竞争程度较低的情况下,企业对外担保比重对股价崩盘风险的影响更为显著.进一步研究发现,企业对外担保引发股价崩盘风险提升的作用机制在于:(1)对外担保使得借款方的违约风险向担保方进行转移,加剧了担保企业的信用风险;(2)对外担保比例越高,管理层更倾向于通过信息披露采取机会主义行为——发布更加乐观的业绩预告隐藏公司的负面信息.本文拓展和深化了企业对外担保和股价崩盘风险等领域的研究,为监管部门、上市公司和投资者更深刻地理解企业对外担保的经济后果及其作用机制,提供了实证依据与重要启示.     

互动式信息沟通降低了股价崩盘风险吗? ——基于交易所网络平台的研究

以2016—2019年我国A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了交易所网络平台互动式信息沟通对上市公司股价崩盘风险的影响.研究发现,网络平台上投资者提问次数和上市公司回答次数越多,上市公司与投资者互动交流越频繁,上市公司股价崩盘风险越低;在信息不对称程度高的公司中,两者间的负相关关系更加显著.进一步分析上市公司信息环境发现,机构投资者持股比例较低、分析师关注度较低时,网络平台上的信息交流对股价崩盘的抑制效果更加显著.     

股价崩盘风险与权益资本成本——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以沪深两市2008-2012年A股上市公司为研究样本,基于我国特殊制度背景和上市公司实际,实证检验股价崩盘风险对权益资本成本的影响。研究结果表明,股价崩盘风险越大,权益资本成本越大,且这种关系在民营上市公司中更显著。进一步考虑信息披露因素,发现高质量的信息披露并不会显著减弱股价崩盘风险对权益资本成本的负面影响,而机构投资者在一定程度上发挥着资本市场上信息传递的作用,改善信息披露环境,增加信息披露,作为信息披露质量外的一种有效的替代机制,其行为显著降低了股价崩盘风险对权益资本成本的作用。     

投资者情绪异质性能影响股价崩盘风险吗?

本文选取1999—2016年沪深A股市场交易数据以及与投资者情绪相关的数据,从市场层面研究了股价崩盘风险与投资者情绪之间的关系。实证研究发现,投资者情绪是股价崩盘风险的单向格兰杰原因,且股价崩盘风险往往要滞后于投资者情绪3期左右。进一步研究表明,投资者情绪对股价崩盘风险具有非对称性影响,即乐观情绪对崩盘风险具有显著影响,而悲观情绪对崩盘风险影响不显著。     

ESG表现与股价崩盘风险——基于投资者情绪与高管过度自信的调节作用

ESG表现能够使上市公司在关心盈利的同时注重企业的正面形象和整体价值,缓解负面消息的冲击,进而降低股价崩盘风险。本文以2013—2020年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,验证了ESG表现与上市公司股价崩盘风险的关系,并在此基础上研究了内外情绪对两者关系的调节作用。研究结果表明：ESG表现与上市公司股价崩盘风险呈负相关关系,投资者情绪促进ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用,而高管过度自信会减弱ESG表现与股价崩盘风险的负相关关系。机制检验发现,ESG表现会通过抑制管理者所有权导致的代理问题和信息不对称导致的信息问题来降低股价崩盘风险。研究对ESG表现发挥正面筛选作用和稳定股票市场有借鉴意义。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.