Are there profit (returns) in Shariah-compliant exchange traded funds? The multiscale propensity

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the multiscale tendency of the co-movement and cross-correlation of nine Islamic Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) returns across the global developed and emerging markets using both wavelet coherence and wavelet MODWT methods. The wavelet coherence results tend to indicate consistent co-movement between most of the ETF returns especially in the long run. The study also uncovers evidence of wide variation of co-movement across the time-scales during the global financial crisis and the Euro debt crisis. Strong co-movement can be observed during the global financial crisis, both for the medium term investors and long term investors. The paper studies the relationship between different ETF returns using wavelet multi-resolution analysis. The cross-correlation analysis also shows certain significant and positive correlations between the ETF returns, especially during the period of global financial crisis. The findings from these two recent dynamic time-scale decomposition methodologies have important policy implications for both risk management and investors’ investment policy.     

Do exchange‐traded fund flows increase the volatility of the underlying index? Evidence from the emerging market in China

Studying 70 Chinese equity exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), we show that daily ETF flows significantly increase both the total volatility and the fundamental volatility of the underlying index on the next trading day. More specifically, it is the forward‐looking flow component which captures APs’ share creation/redemption activities beyond their role of market makers that can significantly predict the two types of volatility. Moreover, ETF arbitrage (ETF's information share) enhances the effect of forward‐looking flows on the total volatility (fundamental volatility) of the index. Furthermore, the relationships between forward‐looking flows and the two types of index volatility show a two‐way contagion.     

人民币外汇期权市场定价分析和政策研究

人民币外汇期权市场在逐步发展当中,针对其定价水平的分析研究方兴未艾。从构造两种不同的套利组合出发,对两个期限不同在值水平的人民币外汇期权进行了套利分析,发现：人民币外汇期权市场定价偏高,长期限期权定价更高。对此分析了其中原因,并给出了相应的政策建议。     

关于加强对跨境资本流动均衡管理的思考

随着季度金融数据的发布,国内再度引起了对热钱的热议。文章分析认为,由于任何开放经济都会面临跨境资本流动冲击,任何资本流动也部是逐利的,因此区分热钱、冷钱实际意义有限。同时,在很多情况下,套利是正常的财务运作,通常不应该一概加以限制。应对跨境资本流动的冲击,应从解决对外经济失衡人手,采取一揽子措施。     

中国银行间外汇市场的套利机会

对于人民币远期汇率是否满足利率平价,目前国内理论界与实务界还存在一定的分歧。本文任意选取2009年6月1～30日中国银行间外汇市场美元/人民币汇率连续实时的买卖报价等数据,首次对该市场的套利机会进行了测度。研究发现:(1)从抵补套利角度看,国内银行间中短期限(1年以内)的远期汇率定价符合利率平价理论;但因定价基准利率(SHIBOR)未能充分发挥基础利率的功能,致使1年期左右的人民币远期汇率存在潜在抵补套利机会,然而其收益率很低。(2)银行间外汇市场几乎随时都存在收益率可观的单边套利机会。(3)银行有足够的时间进行套利交易。     

Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data

This paper investigates the validity of the law of one price (LOP) in international financial markets by examining the frequency, size and duration of inter-market price differentials for borrowing and lending services (‘one-way arbitrage’). Using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, we find that the LOP holds on average, but numerous economically significant violations of the LOP arise. The duration of these violations is high enough to make it worthwhile searching for one-way arbitrage opportunities in order to minimize borrowing costs and/or maximize earnings on given funds. We also document that such opportunities decline with the pace of the market and increase with market volatility.     

Market Sentiment and Investor Overreaction: Evidence from New York Listed Asian Country Exchange Traded Funds

This article investigates Asian Country Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) price deviation with underlying due to market sentiment. By implementing a dynamic contrarian trading strategy and a buy-and-hold strategy, this article finds that significant abnormal excess trading profit can be generated by capitalizing on the overnight price reversion. The excess return generated by the dynamic strategy over buy-and-hold separates the influence of market sentiment to ETF price deviation from fundamental movements. By studying the relations between variations of the excess returns and market sentiment, the article finds that the ETF price deviation is highly influenced by market sentiment and the effect exacerbates during financial crisis and distress.     

信用风险内部评级法下商业银行监管资本套利策略研究--从监管资本公式视角出发

为了获得更有效的资本竞争优势,首先从核心定义入手,阐述了新资本协议信用风险内部评级法下商业银行进行监管资本套利的可行性。随后,以信用风险内部评级法监管资本公式为基础,利用数理解析和图形分析等方法,详细分析了监管资本要求（K）与违约概率（PD）、违约损失率（LGD）、有效期限（M）之间的相关性,以及在不同风险暴露中监管资本要求（K）的系统性差异。最后,以数理分析和图形分析结果为基础,提出商业银行应采取积极推进内评应用、优化资产结构、以组合管理模式积极推进微型和小型企业业务发展、提升合格风险缓释品的覆盖比例、设置合规且有效的合格风险缓释拆分规则等策略,实现监管资本套利。     

The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets

Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry‐level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia.     

Are performance based arbitrage effects detectable? Evidence from merger arbitrage

This paper examines the predictions of the performance based arbitrage hypothesis for the merger arbitrage market. Performance based arbitrage [Shleifer, A., Vishny, R.W., 1997. The limits of arbitrage. Journal of Finance, 52 (1), 35–55] is the notion that funds under management are withdrawn from arbitrageurs following trading losses, resulting in inefficient prices for securities subject to arbitrage trades. I examine general comovement in merger arbitrage spreads and the response of spreads to large arbitrage losses and substantial changes in deal flow. I find little evidence that merger arbitrage spreads exhibit systematic comovement or are substantially affected by important liquidity events in this market.