The effects of government housing policies in a vintage filtering model

Long-run (and short-run) effects of low-income government housing policies are examined, in a model that treats housing as a durable good which declines in quality over time. Short-run and long-run market equilibria are characterized, rent subsidies are analyzed in detail, and results for other policies are presented.     

多套住房、可支付性和政策

随着经济全球化,现代交通、通讯方式导致的人口流动性增强,富裕群体热衷于购买休闲度假和投资用途的第二住宅,多套住宅规模呈扩大趋势。多套住房可以分为转卖和暂时空置、购买后出租、自住用途第二住宅。从短期来看,在一个供求均衡的市场,第三类第二住宅的冲击会导致中低收入阶层的住房可支付能力下降,前两者不影响。供不应求市场和供求均衡市场结果一样,但影响更大。供过于求市场则没有影响。从长期来看,结论依然和短期一样。可行的政策有加强商品房和保障性住房的供应,征收物业税减少住房的空置和闲置等,并提出了改进中国多套住房政策的建议。     

Policy modes,firms and the natural environment

This paper examines how different environmental policy types differentially impact firms and why firms vary in their responses to such policies. Based on the mechanisms embedded in policy instruments to create incentives for firms to comply, the characteristics of benefits/costs that policies impose on firms and the institutional context in which policy instruments were created and are sustained, the paper identifies five policy categories. These are category I (command and control), category II (market based), category III (mandatory information disclosures), category IV (business–government partnerships) and category V (private voluntary codes). Different policy types often bestow asymmetrical benefits/costs on firms. Some benefits/costs may constitute ‘private/club goods’ while others may constitute ‘public goods’. Drawing insights from public policy literature, the paper argues that firms can be expected to favor policies whose benefits have the characteristics of private/club goods but the costs of public goods. Thus, understanding the nature of benefits/costs (private/club versus public) and the magnitude of their excludability is critical in explaining the variations in firms' responses. To understand how managers perceive the nature of benefits/costs (monetary as well as non‐monetary), the paper draws on theories and perspectives in the business and public policy field. In doing so, the paper examines the ‘demand’ and the ‘supply’ sides as well as the market and non‐market environments of a given policy. Thus, the paper makes a case for a multi‐theoretic approach to understand variations in managerial assessments of benefits/costs, and consequently variations in their responses to various policy types. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The short-run comparative statics of a rental housing market

This paper examines the short-run effects of changes in exogenous variables (including several government policies) on the schedule relating market equilibrium rent to quality level. The basic model differs from Sweeney (Econometrica, 42, 147–167 (1974)) by use of a bid rent closed city approach rather than a supply and demand (partially) open city approach. The mathematics changes completely, the analytics simplify, and the results change somewhat. Housing is treated as a durable quality differentiated good, but frictional forces and the multidimensionality of the housing package are ignored. The exception is an extension to a monocentric city context, so that housing units vary in both quality and location.     

经济增长推动房地产市场发展的实证研究——以上海为例

租金、售价等价格指标及其周期性波动,常用于衡量房地产市场的发展程度。在运用三部门模型分析区域经济增长如何影响区域房地产市场发展的基础上,提出上海经济增长推高房地产整体市场和住宅子市场的租金、售价的假设。选取5项指标,利用上海1998—2012年的城市统计年鉴数据,通过格兰杰因果检验方法进行实证检验。结果表明,上海整体房地产市场和住宅子市场的租金增长,均以经济增长为格兰杰因;两个市场的售价与经济增长无法体现因果关系。因此,租金是比价格更有效、更稳定的市场指标。     

On the possibility of positive rent gradients

The negative rent gradient is a virtually unanimous prediction of urban residential land rent models and a condition of locational equilibrium. This is the result of treating urban rents solely as location rents, where location is defined in terms of accessibility to the CBD. Urban rent may include another component, “externality rent,” which could, for instance, reflect neighborhood externalities in the form of area amenities and pleasant living environments. Introducing externality rent as an element in urban rent makes a positive rent gradient possible, provided that the externality is internalized in the land market. Conditions for a positive rent gradient are determined for both the identical and unequal incomes cases.     

Congestion and cost-benefit analysis in cities

Adopting the circular city approach, this paper shows that the results of benefit-cost analysis of road width based on market rent differ substantially between two formulations. When total production in the city is fixed and costs are minimized, the benefit exceeds the market rent at the optimum configuration. When total production is variable and the value of the net product is maximized, benefit is less than market rent at the optimum. Comparison between the optimum solution and the market solution with the cost-benefit analysis based on the market rent is also presented.     

基于社会、经济可持续发展的城镇廉租住房租金定价及补贴模型研究——以广州市为例

利用可持续发展理论,从社会、经济可持续发展视角对廉租住房租金与补贴方案的制定进行理论分析。从廉租户的房租负担能力、政府财政负担能力、建造运营成本、区域因素与个别因素等方面分析影响廉租住房租金和补贴的因素。结合广州现行的廉租住房租金政策,逐步建立符合可持续、可负担原则和具备动态调整性的廉租住房实物配租租金定价模型与货币配租补贴模型,并利用案例对其检验,最后得出结论。     

Do LGBT‐supportive corporate policies enhance firm performance?

Prior research provides evidence that lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT)‐supportive corporate policies are related to important human resource functions, such as enhanced recruitment and retention. In addition, prior research indicates that investors view the adoption of such policies positively. We examine the firm‐performance mechanisms underlying favorable stock‐market reactions based on an integration of perspectives from corporate social responsibility and the business case for diversity. Specifically, we estimate a hierarchical linear model (HLM) to account for the nested nature of our data (firms nested within states) and find that (1) the presence of LGBT‐supportive policies is associated with higher firm value, productivity, and profitability; (2) the firm‐value and profitability benefits associated with LGBT‐supportive policies are larger for companies engaged in research and development (R&D) activities; and (3) the firm‐value and profitability benefits of LGBT‐supportive policies persist in the presence of state antidiscrimination laws. In supplemental analyses, we find that firms implementing (discontinuing) LGBT‐supportive policies experience increases (decreases) in firm value, productivity, and profitability. We are among the first to link LGBT‐supportive policies specifically to financial performance outcomes as well as to develop and test a multilevel model of these relationships. Our results have important implications for theory and research on LGBT issues in organizations, human resource managers, and policymakers.     

Search frictions,real wage rigidities and the optimal design of unemployment insurance

In this paper, we study the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme when the economy is subject to labor market imperfections characterized by real wage rigidities and search frictions. The US unemployment insurance financing is such that firms are taxed proportionately to their layoffs to finance unemployment benefits. Using DSGE methodology, we investigate how policy instruments should interact with labor market imperfections. It is shown that wage rigidities in a search and matching environment cause welfare costs, especially in the absence of an incentive-based unemployment insurance. This cost is mainly due to the distorting effect of wage rigidities which generate inefficient separations. We show that the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme – corresponding to the Ramsey policy – offsets labor market imperfections and allows implementation of the Pareto allocation. The second-best allocation brings the economy close to the Ramsey allocation. The implementation of the optimal policies clearly highlights the role of labor market institutions for short-run stabilization.     

The Social Costs of Innovation Policy

Innovation policy is designed to produce social benefits by solving a market failure problem associated with private investment in new knowledge. Yet the social costs of these policy interventions are routinely ignored. We use the Djankov et al. (2003) institutional possibility frontier model to analyse the trade‐offs between the social costs of disorder and those of dictatorship that particular innovation policies impose. We show how different innovation policies impose different types of social costs. We conclude that the case for public support for innovation policies is often both distorted and overstated because of failure to account for social costs.     

房租波动与政府干预

房租的逐渐上涨及其变动原因成为近期关注的焦点之一。本文分析了城市房租波动的四个典型化特征,并讨论了影响城市房租波动的若干因素,其中包括房价变动及以收入和利率表征的基本面因素,也包括投机需求和政府限购政策及房产税等。最后,我们分析了政府干预房租的可能性和形式。     

旁租波动与政府干预

房租的逐渐上涨及其变动原因成为近期关注的焦点之一。本文分析了城市房租波动的四个典型化特征,并讨论了影响城市房租波动的若干因素,其中包括房价变动及以收入和利率表征的基本面因素,也包括投机需求和政府限购政策及房产税等。最后,我们分析了政府干预房租的可能性和形式。     

城市新就业职工住房保障问题实证研究——基于合肥市新就业职工的调查

调查表明,50%多的新就业职工住房困难。由于收入较低,新就业职工住房支付能力严重不足,30%多的新就业职工家庭缺乏租房支付能力;超过70%的新就业职工家庭缺乏购房支付能力。所以,要尽快将新就业职工纳入住房保障范围。首先,提高新就业职工收入水平,遏制住房价格过快上涨;其次,多渠道筹集住房保障资金;第三,积极创新相关配套政策,完善公共租赁住房准入和退出机制;第四,适时推出限价商品住房,利用优惠信贷政策,提高新就业职工住房支付能力。     

A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries

This study uses data from six Eurozone countries and the United Kingdom between 1980Q1 and 2018Q4 to examine whether these countries had housing bubbles during the observed period. Whereas typical studies make strictly limited assumptions regarding interest rates, we make an unconventional argument for the necessity of testing the integration relationship between the price–rent ratio and the interest rate reciprocal to determine the existence of housing bubbles. To verify this study’s proposition, two housing bubble indicators were adopted to dynamically examine periods of housing bubbles in European countries by using a series of individual countries and panel data from Eurozone countries. According to the empirical results for individual countries, although the price–rent ratio indicates the occurrence of housing booms in the targeted countries, the evidence for housing bubbles is unclear. The dynamic bubble indicator revealed that housing bubbles occurred in France and Ireland within a short period in 1993Q3 and 2000Q2, respectively. Spain experienced two short-term housing bubbles in 1990Q1 and 2015Q1. The short-term bubbles signify that the housing markets were efficient. Once the price–rent ratio failed to converge toward the nominal interest rate, market traders’ rational behavior can immediately correct the short-term market divergence. The panel data of the Eurozone countries also reveals that simply using the price–rent ratio for examination may underestimate the correction of the housing markets. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of the interest rate in controlling the housing market.     

北京市东部地区高档公寓租金与空置率相关性研究

本文以北京朝阳区高档公寓租赁市场为研究对象，构建经济模型，分析租金与空置率的内在关系，从而探寻租赁市场的运行规律，为促进租赁市场的良性发展提供参考建议。．研究以北京东部地区2000年第四季度至2010年第三季度的高档公寓实际租金与空置率为数据基础，通过构建两步骤的租金调整方程（two-equation model of rental adjustments）定量分析租金、空置率、自然空置率之间的动态变化。结果表明，北京市朝阳区高档公寓的空置率与其租金之间未表现出显著的正相关，但二者均受到通货膨胀的影响。     

What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis

We consider which factors determined the price–rent ratio for the housing market in 18 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and at the national level over the period of 1975–2014. Based on a present-value framework, our proposed empirical model separates the price–rent ratio for a given market into unobserved components related to the expected real rent growth and the expected housing return, but is modified from standard present-value analysis by also including a residual component that captures non-stationary deviations of the price–rent ratio from its present-value level. Estimates for the modified present-value model suggest that the present-value residual (PVR) component is always important and sometimes very large at the national and MSA levels, especially for MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. In further analysis, we find that house prices in MSAs that have larger PVR components are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. These are also the MSAs with less elastic housing supply. Also, comparing our results with a recent statistical test for periodically-collapsing bubbles, we find that MSAs with large estimated PVR components are the same MSAs that test positively for explosive sub-periods in their price–rent ratios, especially during the 2005–2007 subsample. Our approach allows us to estimate the correlation between shocks to expected rent growth, the expected housing return, and the PVR component. We find that the expected housing return and movements in the PVR component are highly positively correlated implying an impact of the expected housing return on house prices that is amplified from what a standard present-value model would imply. Our results also show that most of the variation in the present-value component of the price–rent ratio arises due to the variation in the expected housing return.     

Household mobility in New York City’s regulated rental housing market

This study analyzes the effect New York City’s rent regulation regime has on household mobility. Using a panel dataset from the New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey, we estimate the costs and benefits to a particular household of remaining in a regulated unit each period; then in a second stage, we include the benefits of regulations (lowered rent) and the corresponding costs (from disequilibrium in consumption) as explanatory variables in two mobility models. Both logit and survival models confirm that larger benefits in one period are associated with a lower probability of moving in a second period. Similarly, larger costs (distortions in housing consumption) in one period are associated with a higher probability of moving later. While these effects are modest, they are statistically significant. The benefit and cost effects are, however, not symmetric; the pro-mobility effects of costs are roughly twice as large as the anti-mobility effects of benefits. This provides limited support for the relative loss aversion hypothesis of behavioral economics. This support is limited due to the lack of robustness of the result.     

基于纳税会计的税收筹划探究

企业经营发展的主要目的是追求最大经济利益和不断降低企业经营成本,进而在激烈的市场竞争中占据有利地位,为此加强企业税收筹划至关重要。企业在对当前执行的会计准则和税收政策熟知情况下,对这些税收政策进行细致分析,并对相应会计准则进行有效运用,可以起到降低企业税负和增加企业利润的作用。基于此,论文对纳税会计基础上的税收筹划进行分析和探讨。     

土地政策改革时期的城市空间发展:北京的实证分析

论文探讨北京城市空间发展的特征、并探究空间发展的特征与正在发展壮大的土地市场和土地制度改革之间的关系.利用1993年到2000年上半年北京城市建设区土地使用权出让数据,实证分析显示土地价格及土地开发密度都随着距城市中心区的距离增加呈下降趋势.实证分析还表明地租的曲线的空间变化与土地使用类型相关.这些实证证据支持如下结论:正在形成的土地市场确实影响城市土地开发和空间形态.实证分析还显示地租曲线的斜率和土地-资本替代弹性系数都随着时间的推移而变化.正如城市经济理论所预测,地租曲线斜率的下降是由于北京大量的交通投资降低了交通成本,从而又反过来使城市土地地租空间变化曲线发生旋转.土地-资本替代弹性指数的增加意味着价格影响土地开发密度.这两者的变化都反映出北京的土地市场正走向成熟.应该指出,在土地市场之外(在行政划拨的土地上)进行的大量开发对北京正在形成和发育的土地市场会产生扭曲.