Tax rate,government revenue and economic performance: A perspective of Laffer curve

The Laffer curve illustrates a theoretical relationship between rates of taxation and the resulting levels of government revenue. This paper explores the relationship between tax rate (direct tax on labor income), government revenue and economic performance in a perspective of the Laffer curve by applying Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the top of China's Laffer curve is about 40%. The government should consider changes in the entire taxation system and not just changes in direct taxes while increasing direct tax rate. If China wants to maximize tax revenues, the direct tax rate should be 35%. We conduct a variety of sensitivity analyses and conclude that the government tax peak is always 5–10% earlier than the apex of the Laffer curve. So, if a country has reached the top of the Laffer curve, this paper strongly recommends that tax cuts will have positive implications for the economy and government revenue.     

Welfare cost of higher tax rates: An empirical laffer curve for The Netherlands

Summary On the basis of a simple general equilibrium model calculations are made of the welfare cost of higher tax rates. Furthermore, the Laffer curve for The Netherlands is estimated. Taking 1970 as the basic year and assuming that all tax revenues were paid back in lump-sum benefits, the Laffer curve topped at a marginal rate of 66.9076 and theMEB stood at 1.24. This means that an additional guilder in tax revenues involves a welfare loss of Dfl. 1.24 on top of the direct tax burden. Considering the true proportion of government income being spent on benefits, the Laffer curve is found at a marginal tax-rate of 70.1016. In that case theMEB amounts to 0.83 in 1970. The most striking finding was the sharp rise in theMEB, from 0.83 in 1970 to 6.36 in 1985. This high welfare cost is an indication that The Netherlands is nearing the limits of taxation on income. It is found that market signals are disturbed most when tax revenues are used for income transfers in a form which does not influence allocation decisions at the margin (lump-sum benefits). In that case relative prices are affected, whereas income effects are neutralized.The authors wish to thank Professor F. W. Rutten, J. van Sinderen and other colleagues at the Directorate for Macro-economic Policy of the Ministry of Economic Affairs for their stimulating support and critical remarks. J. Hulsman translated the original Dutch draft.     

税率变动对财政收入的影响——基于中国经验的实证研究

对于税率与财政收入研究是现在经济学界的一大热点问题。其主要是由于近年来,减税风波几乎卷席全球。在美国次贷危机的影响下,越来越多的国家正在蕴量或已经宣布减税。作者通过对中国、美国、中国台湾地区的税率与财政收入的实证研究,发现了一条包括阿瑟.拉弗(1974)曲线的M曲线。对于这条曲的发现,为大多数国家的调整税率,提供了一个新的思路。     

增值税改革对企业劳动份额的作用机制——基于面板三重差分模型的实证研究

以中国工业企业数据为样本,从微观层面运用面板三重差分模型（DDD）对增值税转型的效果进行了测算,发现增值税转型显著降低了劳动份额,并且显著降低了政府份额。为了探索其内在机制,基于收入分配的视角,进一步分析发现增值税转型对劳动份额存在两方面的效果,一是增值税转型降低政府份额,政府份额下降有利于增加劳动份额。二是增值税转型加剧资本对劳动的替代。实证研究发现第二种效果大于第一种效果,最终降低了劳动报酬。研究补充了增值税改革的经验,为2015年营业税改增值税的政策评价提供了参考。     

Tax policy implications for a two‐engine growing economy

In an endogenous growth model with two engines of R&D and capital, we investigate the environment of “inclusive growth” for tax reallocations (tax increases or tax credits) to gain broader benefits in terms of promoting the overall GDP growth without an increase in income inequality. Our results show that a tax increase in the capital‐good sector can result in inclusive growth, boosting overall growth and reducing income inequality, provided that the status quo tax rate is not too high. Surprisingly, tax credits are not able to achieve such inclusive growth. While the GDP growth rises, a tax credit in the R&D sector not only increases income inequality but also decreases the aggregate employment, if the labor mobility cost between the final‐good and R&D/capital‐good sectors is relatively low. This provides a caution to policymakers given the fact that research tax credits have served as a common incentive to strengthen the R&D environment.     

Nonlinear Capital Flow Tax: Capital Flow Management and Financial Crisis Prevention in China

How to promote capital account liberalization while preventing financial crises is a challenging task for policymakers. This study proposes a nonlinear (progressive) capital flow tax as a solution. We first demonstrate that the collateral requirement of international borrowing can give rise to multiple equilibria and self‐fulfilling financial crises. We then show that the crisis equilibrium characterized by large exchange rate depreciation, capital flight and welfare loss can be eliminated by imposing a nonlinear (progressive) tax scheme on capital outflows with the marginal tax rate increasing with the size of individual capital outflows. The implementation of such a tax scheme in China is also discussed.     

Dual Income Taxation: A Promising Path to Tax Reform for Developing Countries

The dual income tax combines a progressive tax on labor income and a lower flat tax on income from capital. Unlike flat tax systems, a dual income tax provides developing countries greater flexibility in addressing tax competition while retaining progressivity. Countries could use the move to a dual income tax system not just as an opportunity to rationalize the taxation of income from business operations and investment but also as a vehicle for broader reform of their tax systems.     

China's value-added tax reform, capital accumulation, and welfare implications

This paper analyzes the effects of China's upcoming value-added tax (VAT) reform of removing investment from the tax base on capital accumulation and the welfare of the rich and the poor. Three alternative methods to make up for the loss of tax revenue are considered. The VAT reform with consumption tax being endogenous increases capital accumulation and the utility of both the rich and the poor. The VAT reform with the labor income tax rate being endogenous increases capital accumulation; and it decreases the utility of the rich and increases the utility of the poor (increases the utility of both the rich and the poor) if the rich has a higher rate or the same rate of time preference (if the rich has a lower rate of time preference). The VAT reform, accompanied by a cut in transfers to the poor, has no effect on capital accumulation if the rich and the poor have the same rate of time preference; it decreases (increases) capital accumulation if the rich has a higher (lower) rate of time preference; and it increases the utility of the rich and decreases the utility of the poor.     

Estimates of average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan

In this paper, we estimate average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan from 1963 to 2007. We adapt the method of D.H. Joines [Estimates of effective marginal tax rates on factor incomes. J. Bus. 54 (2), 191-226.] to the Japanese tax and social security system. Average marginal tax rates on labor incomes without social security premiums range from 14% to 21%, whereas the rates on incomes with social security have increased from 21% to 33%. Tax rates on capital incomes have fluctuated between 35% and 58%. We also compare our estimates with average tax rates and the wedges from business cycle accounting.     

Income tax reform for a globalized world: The case for a dual income tax

Countries that are industrialized, or becoming so, must adopt tax systems that are capable of raising considerable amounts of revenue efficiently, equitably and with administrative simplicity, while at the same time coping with the competitive features of a globalized world economy. A component of that tax system will be direct taxation of households alongside general sales and payroll taxation. This paper addresses the role that capital income taxes should play in the income tax system. Arguments for the preferential treatment of capital income are summarized, and a case is made for adopting a schedular approach in which capital and labor income are taxed according to separate rate structures. The particular case of the dual income tax system used in the Nordic countries is advocated whereby capital income is taxed at a low, flat rate and non-capital income is taxed progressively. It is argued that this system best combines the objectives of a good tax system in an internationally competitive environment.     

Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan

It is widely known that Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among OECD countries. If Japan’s national debt continues to balloon, fiscal crisis may occur in the future. This paper develops a closed economy model with defaultable government debt and conducts a simulation to investigate future sovereign debt risk.First, we estimate the fiscal limit which is defined as the sum of the discounted maximum fiscal surplus in all future periods. It is assumed that a partial default occurs when the amount of government debt exceeds the fiscal limit. We calculate the revenue-maximizing tax rate at the peak of the Laffer curve to derive the fiscal limit. As a result, the estimated average fiscal limit in Japan is much higher than that in Greece. In the Japanese economy, households are more patient and desire greater savings from greater discount factor derived from a lower real interest rate. Household saving habits support government bonds. This is the main reason why the Japanese government could have had a massive debt in addition to some room to raise the tax rate. Second, we simulate the model, using the estimated fiscal limit and non-linear computational methods. If the government debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase for the next 20 years, the default probability will be over 10% and the sovereign risk premium will be approximately 2%. Furthermore, the default probability will reach approximately 80% and the sovereign risk premium will be 10% 30 years later.     

Generational incidence of savings taxation versus capital-income taxation

This paper examines the incidence of capital taxation in a model in which the taxation of capital is clearly justifiable and using analytical techniques from the tax reform literature. The taxation of capital has long been a controversial issue, with much of the literature concluding that savings/capital-income should not be taxed. Recently, however, Blackorby and Brett have shown in a model with several desirable features that it can be optimal to tax capital, and they provide a simple yet compelling argument in favor of both savings taxation and capital-income taxation. We use the Blackorby–Brett model (i.e. a model in which the taxation of capital can be justified) to revisit the question of the incidence of capital taxation. We focus on the generational incidence of capital taxation; that is, the incidence on a young generation and an old generation. However, an interpretation in terms of the incidence on "capital" versus "labor" (as is traditional in the tax incidence literature) is also provided.     

Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Time Series Evidence from the US

Abstract

This study investigates long run and short run relationships between the corporate income tax rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the US. The tax rate is found to exert a significant negative effect on total FDI and transfer fund inflows in the long run. A 1% decrease in the tax rate would increase total FDI by 2.4% and transfer funds by 4.2%. Collectively, results suggest that the US can use tax policies to attract FDI from abroad. Concern over the possibility of tax competition among countries to attract foreign capital is warranted.     

A comparison of Ad valorem and per unit taxes in regulated monopolies

This paper compares the output and revenue effects in the rate-of-return regulated monopoly model. Both the ad valorem and the unit tax generally decrease the use of capital, and as such, reduce the output and raise the price. In addition, it is shown that Suits and Musgrave's conclusion of higher revenue of an ad valorem tax at a given output can apply to a regulated monopolist if the marginal product of labor under the ad valorem tax is greater than or equal to that under the unit tax. Similarly, their second conclusion, that for a given tax revenue an ad valorem tax has a larger output than a unit tax rate before the revenue-maximizing tax rate, can also apply to the regulated monopolist.     

Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy

This article analyzes how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in a Romer‐style endogenous growth model. Lower tax rates on financial income (returns to physical capital and intellectual property) are partially self‐financing primarily because lower financial income taxes stimulate innovation and enhance labor productivity in the long run. In the baseline calibration, about half of a tax cut is self‐financing in the long run, substantially more than in the Ramsey model. The dynamics of the economy's response to a tax cut are very sluggish and, for some variables, nonmonotonic.     

Corporate Effective Tax Rates in the Netherlands

Summary This paper investigates the actual size of tax incentives granted to Dutch companies by using financial statement data for 1592 companies for the 1994--1999 period. Empirical results indicate that Dutch effective tax rates do not differ much from statutory tax rates. Although capital intensity is negatively associated with effective tax rates, only a small portion of the variance in effective tax rates can be explained. This indicates that the actual size of tax incentives granted to companies in the Netherlands is quite small.Comments by the editor, two anonymous reviewers, Willem Buijink, Yvonne Schols and participants at the annual European Accounting Association congress are gratefully acknowledged.     

两税合并对我国吸引外资的影响分析

两税合并主要是指对内外资企业所得税实行统一税法、统一税率、统一税前扣除标准、统一优惠政策。本文从对引进外资规模的影响和引进外资结构与投向两个方面分析了两税合并对我国吸引外资的影响。     

税制改革和国有商业银行资本充足率的内源性提升

金融部门被认为是现代市场经济的枢纽和命脉,其效率水平会对整个经济的效率水平产生基础性影响。资本充足率是衡量银行抵御风险能力和稳健性的重要指标,我国国有商业银行资本充足率状况不容乐观。税收作为国家主要政策手段,是金融发展的重要制度因素。文章从税制改革角度,探讨提升国有商业银行资本充足率的问题。     

广东省税收问题探析

广东省税收地位十分重要,连续14年税收总量全国第一,但是广东省税收存在的问题也是不容忽视的。本文充分利用广东省的税收数据,分析了广东省的税负水平与发达国家相比,远远偏低的;广东省的主体税种“生产型增值税”已经不能适应广东省经济发展的需要;广东省内外资企业所得税标准不统一影响了广东省公平竞争的经济环境。     

最优流转税与超额负担

本文通过一个简单的一般均衡模型讨论最优流转税的特点及其带来的"超额负担".在劳动力供应没有弹性的情况下,如果所有产品市场均为完全竞争,那么社会最优的流转税应实行单一从价税率,且无论基于"等价变动"或"补偿变动"的社会福利损失均为零.如果市场不是完全竞争,那么最优流转税应使得所有产品的勒纳指数(Lerner Index)均等化,且最优流转税一般可实现社会福利的潜在帕累托改进,即税收的超额负担为负.流转税是我国最重要的税种,本文的结论对于研究我国税收体系的发展方向有一定参考价值.