Die Interne Rendite der Gesetzlichen Pflegeversicherung

Presuming an ageing population, every introduction of a pay-as-you-go scheme causes intergenerational redistribution in favour of the first generations and to the burden of young and future generations. Using the concept of internal rates of return we want to examine the extent to which the first generations drew an introductory benefit from the implementation of the German statutory long-term care insurance as an unfunded system. Furthermore, a comparison between the internal rates of return will show firstly to what extent different generations are burdened by having to redeem the implicit debt, and secondly which generations are involved in paying back the introductory gain.     

Die Zukunft der Pflegeversicherung in Deutschland: Umlage und Kapitaldeckung

Due to the dramatic ageing of the population, the German welfare state expects enormous challenges in the decades until 2060: either the contribution rates have to be increased by a full 20 percentage points, or the benefits must be cut by one-third – relative to their present growth path. Moreover, even in the otherwise copious German welfare state, the system of publicly financed long-term care benefits is characterized by a considerable coverage gap. In this paper, we analyze past and current reforms of the German financing system for LTC expenditures, and we argue that the coverage gap should be reduced by supplementing the welfare state with an element of mandatory funding. The financial crisis should not induce policy makers to default on this necessary financing reform.     

Zur Nachhaltigkeit der Generationenverträge: Eine Diagnose der Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung

Employing the generational accounting approach, this paper analyses the stance of fiscal policy in Germany. We find that fiscal policy is presently not sustainable, which is mainly due to pay-as-you-go financed social insurance systems. In order to illustrate the relative impact, we isolate the Public Health Insurance and the Public Long Term Care Insurance. Our findings suggest that without radical reforms the implicit debt burden for future generations might reach a magnitude of more than two times the annual GDP and contribution rates to both schemes will explode during the next three decades.     

Produktinnovationen und Produktmodifikationen in der Versicherungswirtschaft: Rolle und Bedeutung nach der Deregulierung

One consequence of the deregulation of the insurance industry in 1994 is a considerably improved scope for insurance companies to design products. Therefore, the question should be raised if there is an observable effect on the insurer’s behaviour with regard to the development of new products. This paper embodies results of an empirical study that collected data of 650 products that were launched in the German insurance industry between 1996 and 2005 and that could be categorised as product innovations or as product modifications. On the basis of the study, it was possible for the first time to provide quantitative evidence that in the whole industry the amount of product innovations (in average 2,4 per year) as well as of product modifications (in average 63 per year) stayed on a modest level after the deregulation and that the evaluated impact of the deregulation on the development of new products is relatively small. This is also demonstrated by the fact that 27% of all German insurers developed only one new product in ten years. In addition, it became evident that there is no significant change in the extent of the (small) impact in the last ten years. Thus, the deregulation itself only sent limited impulses for renewing products in the German insurance industry. Apparently, the theoretical considerations are supported that while considering a high entrepreneurial risk and the absence of a monopoly rent at the same time the Value Based Management imposes a high hurdle for the insurance industry to develop new products. The role of renewing products is therefore determined by their value contribution to companies and customers, whereas the deregulation itself marginally changed this role.     

Hedge-Fonds als Asset-Klasse: Betrachtungen aus der Perspektive der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft

The over performance of hedge funds until the current financial market turbulences led to a large number of insurers increasing their hedge funds quota. In the following this asset class is examined and particularly analyzed with respect to its adequacy for an insurance company's asset allocation by focusing on the axiom of safety, as demanded by national law. The problem of survivorship-bias and the Markowitz requirements of normal-distribution and constant correlations among the asset classes and their impact on a strategic asset allocation are studied.     

Solvency II: Das Governance-System in der Versicherungsgruppe

The Solvency II Directive creates a complex set of prudential rules to improve the protection of policyholders and to contribute to the stability of the financial market. One of the key elements is a system of governance, which is not only to be established in each undertaking concerned, but also at group level. This article shows that in a factual group, the parent company’s sphere of influence is very limited, rendering it impossible to implement an effective group-wide governance system. Thus, the achievement of the objectives is at stake. The author discusses various approaches to solving this problem and proposes an amendment to the law. Furthermore, the impact of the paradigm shift from a rules-based to a principles-oriented regulatory regime is analyzed.     

Anwendung der Volterra'schen Integralgleichungen in der mathematischen Statistik

Abstract

In der vorliegenden Abhandlung, welche einen Auszug aus den in den Abhandlungen der tschechoslowakischen Akademie für Wissenschaften (Rozpravy ?eské akademie) veröffentlichten Arbeiten darstellt ¹ Pon?iti Volterrových integrálnich rovnie v matematické statistice Jahrg. XXVI. No. 26, Praha 1917. O jisté integrodifferenciálni rovnici Jahrg. XXIX. No. 15, Praha 1920. wird die Theorie der Integral- und Integrodifferentialgleichungen auf die Lösung wichtiger Probleme der mathematischen Statistik angewendet. Das Ziel der Arbeit ist zu zeigen, dass die Volterra'schen Integral- und Integrodifferentialgleichungen die mathematische Grundlage für die Beschreibung zahlreicher sog. Kollektiverscheinungen bilden. Es handelt sich dabei um Probleme, welche die Praxis bereits seit langer Zeit mittels angenäherter Methoden durch Rekursionsprozesse oder mit, Hilfe von Hypothesen, die dem heutigen Stande unseres Wissens nicht mehr entsprechen, löst. Diese Probleme, wenn wir sie genau formulieren und auf alle Erkenntnise der Praxis und Theorie Rücksicht nehmen wollen, führen zu den Integral- und Integrodifferentialgleichungen, ohne deren Studium die Lösung also nicht vollständig ist.