我国国债规模的现状及风险控制

一 　　1998年以来,我国实施了以扩大国债投资为重点的积极的财政政策,这是社会主义市场经济条件下政府反周期政策调节的一次成功尝试.1998年-2000年国家财政累计发行长期建设国债3600亿元,共安排国债项目6620个,到2000年底累计完成投资1.5万多亿元.各年度国债投资对经济增长的贡献率分别达到1.5、2和1.7个百分点,对实现预定的经济增长目标起到了关键性作用.2001年,继续发行1000亿元基础设施建设国债和500亿元西部开发特种国债;2002年国债发行量为5936亿元;2003年国债发行总量达到6355亿元,创下国债发行总量的新高.……     

国债专项资金为何成了“唐僧肉”？

从1998年至今，我国发行国债的总额已突破8000亿元人民币。国债投资每年拉动经济增长1．5到2个百分点。累计直接创造就业岗位近千万个，对促进国民经济持续快速健康发展发挥了重要作用。但是，不容置疑，在国债资金的使用中还存在着违法乱纪问题。     

稳健的财政政策探讨

1998年开始，我国实行以增发长期建设国债、增加投资为主要内容的积极财政政策，到2004年的7年时问里，累计发行长期建设国债达9800亿元。这部分国债拉动形成的投资总规模达5万亿元左右，每年拉动GDP增长1．5到2个百分点，使我国经济平均每年以9％以上的速度增长，高于世界经济的平均增速，也高于发达和发展中国家的增长速度，成为世界上经济发展最快的国家之一。2004年GDP达到13．7万亿元，外贸总额9万亿元，已经成为世界第六大经济体和第四大贸易国，综合国力跻身世界前列。积极财政政策的实施，对于抵御亚洲金融危机的冲击、化解国民经济运行周期低迷阶段的种种压力、推动经济结构调整、促进经济社会平稳发展，作用显著，功不可没。但是，实施积极财政政策的负面效应也不可低估。     

论国债发行与稳健货币政策的互动效应

一、目前我国的国债发行与国债发行市场概况 １９７９年以来，为促进社会主义经济建设需要，我国发行了国库券、国家重点建设债券、财政债券、凭证式国债、记账式国债等一系列国债。这一时期，国债理论有了长足的发展，国债作用也不断强化，特别是１９９８年实施积极财政政策以来，国债发行为拉动经济增长作出了巨大的贡献。据统计，１９９８年～２０００年国债资金拉动经济增长分别为 １．５１个百分点、１．９６个百分点、１．６５个百分点。国债资金与社会保障支出、出口退税相结合，１９９８年～２０００年分别拉动经济增长２３６个百分…     

对青海省发展民营经济的思考

近几年，在国家实施西部大开发战略的大背景下，青海省经济一直保持了较高的增长态势。2003年，青海省GDP增长12．1％，均高于全国同期3个百分点。有关资料显示，1998年以来，全省累计完成同定资产投资已超过1130亿元，意味着投资每年以19．54％的高速度增长。在2003年全省GDP增长中，固定资产投资占GDP的比重达73．07％。2003年，全省民营经济共创产值66．2亿元，比上年同期增长24．2％，占全省经济总量的21．2％；实现销售总额78．7亿元，完成社会消费品零售额58．2亿元，分别比上年同     

民间投资：不振成因与启动对策

1998年,为扩大内需,促进经济增长,我国增发了1000亿元国债,用于基础设施建设。今年的财政政策则更以积极的姿态和前所未有的力度扩大开支,增加投资。全年安排了财政赤字1503亿元,赤字规模为建国以来之最。然而,由于缺乏民间投资的跟进和呼应,政府投资孤掌难鸣。1998年,全社会固定资产投资比上年增长15％,其中国有单位固定资产投资增长22％,     

对贫困地区国债项目的使用管理及其成效分析

国债项目资金是指使用中央政府发行长期建设债券筹集的资金。自1998年以来，国务院采取积极的财政政策，连年增发长期建设国债，用于加大基础设施的投资，直接扩大了国内需求，有效地拉动了经济增长。随着国债项目对山区的投入，不断改善了贫困地区生产、生活条件，拉动了贫困地区经济增长，促     

深化投融资体制改革 加大金融市场对经济的支持力度

2001年,江西省(以下简称我省)经济呈加快发展之势,GDP增长8.8%.投资快速增长成为最为抢眼的亮点.全年全社会固定资产投资达到660亿元,增长20.4%,位于中部6省之首;在拉动经济发展的"三驾马车"中,投资起到了支撑作用,在GDP增长的8.8个百分点中5.6个百分点是靠投资拉动的.投资的快速增长,符合我省处于经济起飞前加速阶段的特征,在今后一段时间里,特别是要实现我省在中部地区的崛起这一目标,必须保持投资持续的快速增长.     

试谈国债投资的管理

国债作为一种融资方式体现的是政府与其他经济主体之间的债权债务关系。我国从20世纪80年代初恢复发行国债，国债在经济中的地位越来越重要。国债的规模也呈现快速增长的态势，国债余额从1985年的237亿元，增长到1996年的4362亿元，10年内增长了近20倍。改革开放后，我国国债市场发展已经走过20年的历程，与西方发达国家相比，这一市场有个十分突出的特点：参与同债市场的投资者，     

我国积极财政政策的中长期趋势

一、积极财政政策的效应评价 实施积极的财政政策是治理经济紧缩,拉动投资和消费需求,促进经济增长的重大举措。几年来的实践证明,这一政策的实施取得了显著成效。一是拉动经济增长,国民经济发展出现良好势头。据统计,1998年通过增发国债,扩大政府投资规模,拉动GDP增长1.5个     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.