The learning path of the hidden economy: the tax burden and tax evasion in New Zealand

This paper considers the ‘learning curve’ relationship between the aggregate tax rate and the relative size of the hidden economy in New Zealand. Some simple non-linear models are estimated so that the effects of changes in the effective tax rate on the underground economy can be simulated. This study finds that about half of the hidden activity in New Zealand is a learned response to changing opportunities and constraints in fiscal policy, but this amount varies over the business cycle. Simulating a zero tax rate permits us to discover the ‘natural rate’ of underground and criminal activity. Some partial lessons are drawn for taxation policy in that country.     

Tax enforcement and corporate profit shifting

We present empirical evidence suggesting that weak tax enforcement proxied by the extent of tax evasion in a country acts like a lower corporate tax rate in attracting profits of multinational corporations.     

Unemployment and the shadow economy

Current research links the shadow economy (SE) and the unemployment rate either indirectly or by means of a preliminary estimate. This article establishes and empirically implements a methodology for estimating the size of the SE as a direct function of the tax and unemployment rates. This link is found to be extremely relevant in countries with high unemployment rates (such as Greece and Spain) and less relevant in countries with moderate unemployment rates (such as Germany and Italy). Unemployment’s contribution to the SE is shown to be significant, especially in the years following the economic downturn of 2008. The calculation of the variance and distribution of these estimates is another significant contribution. The common criticism that SE estimates are unreliable is addressed by calculating the variance and the distribution of the estimates, and the large size of the SE in Greece and Spain is once again confirmed.     

结构性减税促进经济发展研究

通过阐释“结构性减税”内涵、出台背景及实践情况,分析其促进企业发展、增加居民收入、稳定物价、扩大出口等作用。分析结构性减税政策存在的影响地方财政收益、体制本身存在不足、对所得税制调节不大等问题,提出合理确定中央与地方财税分享比例、完善结构性减税政策体制、调整现行所得税制等政策建议。     

关于中国税收征管优化的几个基本问题的探讨--新制度经济学视角下的思考

税收征管影响着税收制度的有效运行。长期以来,对税收制度的研究忽视了税收征管因素,但税收征管现实存在并发挥巨大作用。本文从新制度经济学的视角对税收征管进行了理论上的分析,并结合中国的实践,提出了具体的税收征管优化路径选择。     

简析虚拟经济与实体经济的关系

进入21世纪后,随着经济全球化的不断深入,虚拟经济的规模日益扩大,虚拟经济与实体经济日益脱离,正确处理好虚拟经济与实体经济的关系成为现实经济快速、稳定、可持续发展的必要条件。通过运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验,对我国的实体经济与虚拟经济关系进行了实证分析,结果表明,实体经济与虚拟经济的发展是不平衡的,不存在长期稳定的协整关系。     

寺院经济与社会经济关系疏议

当代佛教寺院在商品经济的浪潮中纷纷从事农林业生产、工商业经营以及宗教服务、旅游服务等活动,形成了多样化的形态,不仅解决了自养问题、改善了生活条件,也为社会积累了财富。寺院经济作为社会主义市场经济中的一个重要的特殊实体经济,不仅是社会经济的重要补充,而且还发挥着“经济水库”的调节作用。     

Equilibrium prices in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. This paper presents a model of a Walrasian exchange economy in which the preferences and endowments of the agents are random. Stochastic interaction among the agents is formally described in terms of dependency neighborhoods. The main result is a characterization of the distribution of market-clearing prices in a large economy. Received: April 23, 1999; revised version: May 6, 1999     

二战之后瑞士银行保密法遇到的两大危机

二战以后,瑞士银行保密法遇到两大危机,一是由于与犹太人和纳粹德国之间的纠葛,瑞士人陷入“犹太人黄金”一案,并被冠以“纳粹的金库”的头衔,二是被扣上“避税天堂”的帽子,尤其是2010年上半年,瑞士的银行保密法更是受到关注,缘起德国高价收购一个不知名人士提供的光盘,据称上面记录了德国逃税者在瑞士的账户和存款情况。而这些责难都将瑞士的银行保密法推上风口浪尖,一时间,人们纷纷预测保密法将被“终结”。本文就这两项危机以及瑞士应对危机的策略进行分析和研究。     

新西兰农牧业发展模式及其启示

新西兰农牧业经营机制与模式创新点是:完备的农牧业科研机构和科技创新体系,便捷的农牧业成果推广与服务合作机制,高效的农牧业管理与技术调控模式。进入转型时期的中国农牧业应借鉴新西兰的经验,着力打造加入WTO后中国畜牧业参与国际竞争的产品优势和区域优势,努力提高中国特色农牧业综合生产水平和可持续发展能力。     

我国三大都市经济圈旅游经济增长影响因素研究

旅游产业发展的核心是促进旅游经济的增长,探讨三大都市经济圈旅游经济增长的影响因素对明确旅游发展战略具有现实意义。通过建立计量经济学回归模型,分析了影响三大都市经济圈旅游经济增长的因素,发现区域经济发展水平、旅游资源禀赋和2003年的非典疫情是影响其旅游经济增长的最主要因素,并提出了促进三大都市圈旅游经济增长的战略构想,即确定旅游为新经济增长点,推进旅游业技术进步,开展区域旅游合作。     

A Test of Strategic Trade Policy in the Semiconductor Industry: The Impact of Japanese Policy on U.S. Firms

This paper analyzes a multinational corporation that may use tax evasion and profit shifting as a means to minimize tax liabilities. Our main finding is that profit shifting may occur even when tax rates are the same across countries. This will be the case whenever there is a tax differential in effective tax rates resulting from differences in tax enforcement. In this context, profit shifting occurs to enable tax evasion in a country where tax enforcement is less harsh. Moreover, for a given differential in tax rates, differences in tax enforcement may either accentuate or dampen profit shifting. Importantly, the predictions regarding the direction of profit shifting that would result in our set-up may contrast sharply with those of the preceding literature.     

国外促进低碳经济发展的税收政策及启示

欧盟、美国、日本等国家在促进低碳经济发展方面都有本国的税收政策,应基于中国国情并借鉴国外先进经验,着力打造适合中国国情的低碳经济。为此,需进一步完善税收政策,坚持有所为、有所不为的原则,从而实现经济增长与可持续发展。     

经济增长泡沫的测度--三变量模型与虚拟经济研究

虚拟经济对经济增长的贡献率等于经济增长泡沫多少的相对测度。利用三变量模型估算了泰国和中国的经济增长泡沫,从而给出1997年亚洲金融风暴首先在泰国爆发的原因,1986～1998年泰国经济增长中有40%的经济泡沫是发生金融危机的数量基础,接下来泰国经济进入了去泡沫发展周期,1999～2010年经济增长只有不足2%的泡沫。作为比较,美国1992～2001年经济增长有三分之一为泡沫,进入21世纪后泡沫继续扩大终于2007破灭。中国2000～2009年经济增长的24%为增长泡沫,2009年增加4万亿刺激计划,其M2已从2009年的60万亿增加到2014年上半年的120万亿,估计中国2009～2014经济增长的30%～40%为增长泡沫,所以中国发生房地产泡沫破灭的危险已接近40%这根临界线。     

循环经济发展中的障碍及对策思考

近几年我国循环经济的发展有了较多的实践,也总结出了很多宝贵的经验,但目前仍然存在一些制约循环经济发展的障碍性因素。文章剖析了我国循环经济发展中面对的主要障碍,并提出了几点针对性的建议,以期更好地推进循环经济的发展。     

论集群经济中的税收竞争效应

文章首先简单回顾标准/经典国际税收竞争模型的主要内容,然后引入集群经济这一新的经济概念,对集群经济下国际税收竞争模型及其结果进行重新审视,得出的结论是集群经济中的政府倾向于对企业进行补贴,而当存在集群经济的地区与不存在集群经济的地区展开税收竞争时,均衡状态下前者的税率将高于后者.结合我国的实际情况,文章最后提出了集群经济中政府参与税收竞争的一些政策建议.     

Real interest rates,inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand

We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.     

新西兰重振经济过程中科技管理体制调整

近年来,新西兰政府对于科技体制的调整值得关注。重点对2012年7月成立的商业、创新与就业部的职能进行了介绍,并分析其成立的背景及科技投入情况。新机构的职能是支持新西兰人才、创新和企业发展;为企业提供更好的发展环境和前景;改善政府与企业的关系。此外,简要介绍了新西兰皇家研究所与新西兰风险投资基金的企业化运作情况,以及政府统筹创新链上中下游的一个典型案例。新西兰重振经济对科技管理体制的调整经验、皇家研究所的企业化运作模式以及组建先进技术研究院的做法,对我国科技体制改革有一定借鉴意义。     

The effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income: a panel study of the 1988 tax flattening in Canada

Federal tax reform in 1988 flattened the Canadian personal income tax schedule, changing the marginal tax rates for many individuals. Using methods similar to those applied by Auten and Carroll [Rev. Econ. 81(4) (1999) 681] in the study of the effects of the 1986 U.S. Tax Reform Act, we estimate the responsiveness of income to changes in taxes to be substantially smaller in Canada. However we find evidence of a much higher response in self-employment income, in the labor income of seniors and from those with high incomes.