Monetary policy and the yield curve at zero interest

In contrast to affine term structure models, Black’s (1995) model of interest rates as options has properties suitable to examine the yield curve when the short-term interest rate is near zero. We estimate a Black’s model with Japan’s data to extract market expectations about duration of zero interest. We find that expectations about duration have substantially varied, which contradicts with the assumption utilized in the literature. We also find a tight link between expectations about duration and survey measures of inflation expectations, which appears to be attributable to the Bank of Japan’s commitment conditional on inflation.     

领导员工互动与员工职业发展——大型集团背景下的实证研究

文章以社会资源理论为基础,构建了领导员工交换、领导员工关系、员工个人权力、领导个人权力和员工职业发展之间的关系模型,并以广东省一家大型企业集团中的235名员工及其主管为研究对象对该模型进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:领导员工交换和领导员工关系对员工职业发展都具有显著的正向影响,其中领导员工关系对员工职业发展的影响更为显著;领导员工交换和领导员工关系对员工个人权力都具有显著的正向影响,其中领导员工关系对员工个人权力的正向影响更为显著;个人权力对员工的职业发展有显著的正向作用;员工个人权力在领导员工交换与员工职业发展之间以及领导员工关系与员工职业发展之间起着完全中介的作用;领导的个人权力越大,领导员工交换和领导员工关系对员工个人权力的正向关系就越强。     

What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy

We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Euro-zone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model’s implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but ‘traditional’ shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises—provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.     

An Analysis of Historical and Future-Oriented Information in Accounting-Based Security Valuation Models*

The Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995) valuation model provides a rigorous framework for summarizing the information in expected future earnings and book values. However, the model provides little guidance on selecting an empirical proxy for expected future earnings. We examine whether and under what circumstances historical earnings and analyst earnings forecasts offer comparable explanation of security prices. This issue is of particular interest because analyst forecasts are less readily available than historical data. Under appropriate circumstances, historical data may allow wider use of the Feltham-Ohlson valuation model by researchers and investors. A related issue is the incremental explanatory power of historical earnings and realized future earnings (perfect-foresight forecasts) for security prices beyond analyst forecasts. If historical earnings are incrementally informative, that would suggest that analyst forecasts do not fully reflect price-relevant information in past earnings. If future earnings are incrementally informative, that would suggest that security prices reflect investors' implicit earnings forecasts beyond analyst forecasts. We examine these issues using a historical model (based on past earnings), a perfect-foresight model (based on realized future earnings), and a forecast model (based on Value Line earnings forecasts). All three models provide significant explanatory power for security prices, and each set of earnings data provides incremental explanatory power for prices when used with the other sets of earnings data. We estimate the models separately for firms with moderate and extreme earnings-to-price (E/P) ratios, a proxy for earnings permanence. For moderate-E/P firms, the historical model's explanatory power exceeds that of the perfect foresight model, and is indistinguishable from that of the analyst forecast model. In contrast, for extreme-E/P firms, the perfect-foresight model offers greater explanatory power than the historical model, but lower explanatory power than analyst forecasts. Our results suggest that financial analysts' forecasting efforts are best focused on firms whose earnings contain large temporary components (extreme E/P firms). However, in general, both historical data and analyst forecasts are complementary information sources for security valuation.     

TESTING FOR PPP USING SADC REAL EXCHANGE RATES

This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, non-linear tests of non-stationarity and Bayesian unit root tests, applied to 10 Southern African Development Community countries. The Bayesian tests were found to be biased in favour of a trend stationary model in all cases. It is argued that non-linear approaches to exchange rate adjustments are likely to provide a firmer basis for inference and stronger support for the PPP in the long-term. This is more so at 1 and 5% levels of significance.     

Two Models of the Auditor - Client Interaction: Tests with United Kingdom Data*

Abstract. Accounting research contains two distinct approaches to the interaction between accounting management and the independent auditor. Game theory suggests that the auditor's testing strategy will affect the manager's reporting strategy and that the two strategies form an equilibrium. The game-theoretic approach views the auditor as active, in that the auditor acknowledges the effect that his or her testing strategy has on the manager's reporting. In contrast, in the decision-theoretic approach, the auditor tests reports, but ignores the effect that such testing might have on the manager's reporting behavior. Essentially, the decision-theoretic approach views the auditor as passive, taking the reporting strategy as given when designing tests. We use United Kingdom data to estimate both models and test their validity using nested hypothesis tests. Our results demonstrate that the active, game-theoretic model better describes the auditor-manager interaction. This is the first empirical validation of the game-theoretic model using archival accounting data.     

Does market power affect performance in the dutch banking market? a comparison of reduced form market structure models

This paper investigates whether reduced form market structure models can be used to test whether there is market power in the Dutch banking market. First, a traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) model is introduced. Next, a simple Cournot-model is introduced, which results in a more flexible measure of market power for different market structures. Finally, the inclusion of a modified Efficiency hypothesis reduces identification problems. Theoretically speaking, the Cournot model provides a better foundation for testing the existence of market power than the SCP model. Likewise, explicitly correcting for and including efficiency results in a more correct test of the Efficiency hypothesis. Empirical results for Dutch data confirm that the introduced improvements based on the Cournot models are the only ones resulting in tests that are consistent with the underlying models. Evidence from the Cournot model suggests that we cannot reject the existence of market power, although its impact on performance may be small. It also formalizes the need for additional research into the importance of strategic interaction among banks.     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.     

Testing for Latent Factors in Models with Autocorrelation and Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form

This article considers the problem of testing for latent factors or reduced rank in a broad class of (multivariate linear stationary) time-series models, wherein model errors have autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of unknown form. It is easy to motivate these models and methods in the context of finance models, and we illustrate with a familiar macromodel of asset returns, proposed previously by Chen, Roll, and Ross. Unfortunately, previously used tests for reduced rank are not sufficiently robust, so we examine two heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) methods, a HAC version of Hansen's GMM test and a lesser known but more user-friendly minimum-distance or ratio of asymptotic densities (RAD) test. We recommend the RAD test, for which we supply computer code. In application, the tests lend more HAC-robust support to the hypothesis that multiple factors drive the link between the macroeconomy and the returns on bonds and stocks.     

TNC takeovers in Brazil: The uneven distribution of benefits in the market for firms

Control of the future stream of earnings is perhaps the most valuable component of returns to a transnational investment. As with other components, controlis subject to bargaining between TNCs and host governments. This paper argues that by leaving acquisitions (that is, the ‘market for firms’) unregulated, Brazil has inadvertantly surrendered some of its bargaining power to TNCs. The paper's first section uses cases to show how the market for firms in the electrical industry favours TNCs, particularly because of their market power in technology and finance markets. A second section analyses the overall effects of TNCs' acquisitions on market structure and ownership changes, and finds that takeovers by TNCs raise both the level of industrial concentration and denotionalization. Foreign control of the electrical industry rose from 66% in 1960 to 77% in 1974, almost all attribute to TNCs' acquisition policies. It is argued that Brazil could substantially raise its gains from TNC investments by instituting a merger review and prohibiting non-socially beneficial takeovers.     

产品市场势力能降低股票市场的异质信念吗——基于A股市场的实证研究

基于2001年至2009年A股市场的数据,本文检验了Peress(2010)提出的产品市场势力降低股票市场异质信念水平的推断,并分析了Miller(1977)提出的影响股票市场异质信念的因素。我们发现产品市场势力不仅不能降低反而可能会提高股票市场异质信念的水平。在将异质信念分解为异质先验导致的异质信念,渐进信息流动、有限注意导致的异质信念后,这种提高主要表现在对后者的提高上。该结果意味着产品市场势力可能因为提高了异质信念水平而促进了股票市场的交易,从而为交易异象的解释提供了新的思路。此外,实证结果显示上市公司的业务集中度、机构持股可以降低异质信念水平,而上市公司的已上市时间、市场中股票数量对于异质信念的影响与已有的理论分析并不完全一致。     

Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows among ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) as well as to their five main trading partners. External volatility is included in the models to study the ‘third country’ effect on the trade flows. We employ annual import and export data over the period of 1980–2012. The results from the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction model reveal that the real exchange rate volatility does play a significant role in 15 export and four import models in short-run and long-run. Moreover, in both import and export models, the effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows are negative rather than positive. Finally, the effects of volatility from the ASEAN-4’s currency/yuan rate dominate the third country effect on the ASEAN-4’s trade.     

A spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model for panel data incorporating a model of technical inefficiency

By integrating Battese and Coelli’s (1995) model and the spatial autoregressive model (SAR), a spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model for panel data is developed. The main feature of this frontier model is a spatial lag term of explained variables and the joint structure of a production possibility frontier with a model of technical inefficiency. The model addresses both spatial dependence and heteroskedastic technical inefficiency. This study applies maximum likelihood methods considering the endogenous spatial lag term. The proposed model nests several existing models. Further, an empirical analysis using data on the Japanese manufacturing industry is conducted and the existing models are tested against the proposed model, which is found to be statistically supported. The findings suggest that estimates in the existing spatial and non-spatial models may exhibit bias because of lack of determinants of technical inefficiency, as well as a spatial lag. This bias also affects the technical efficiency score and its ranking.     

A search for robust East Asian development models after the financial crisis: mutual learning from East Asian experiences

The purpose of this paper is to search for new robust East Asian economic development models following the financial crisis. Specifically, this paper addresses both robustness and sustainability of Korea’s Chaebol-led model, Taiwan’s SMEs-led model, and Malaysia’s FDI-led model, respectively. East Asia’s new development paradigm can be reformulated not only by adopting and learning advanced financial innovations of global standards in the framework of Gershenkron’s “advantages of backwardness,” but also in the concept of “mutual learning” from both strengths and weaknesses of development models of the three countries. East Asia has neglected too long some inherent wisdoms that are contained in its “miracle models,” yet it shows that their different paths to development may lead to a positive policy convergence.     

An experimental investigation of bilateral oligopoly in emissions trading markets

Market power in emissions trading has been extensively investigated because emerging markets for tradable emissions permits, such as the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), can be dominated by relatively few large sellers or buyers. Previous studies on market power in emissions trading have assumed the existence of a subset of competitive players. However, a key feature of emissions trading markets is that emissions permits are often traded by a small number of large sellers and buyers. Using a laboratory experiment, our objective in this paper is to test the performance of an emissions trading market utilizing a double auction in a bilateral oligopoly. Our results suggest that the theoretical bilateral oligopoly models can better describe market outcomes of emissions trading. The effects of the slope of the marginal abatement cost function on market power in laboratory experiments are found to be consistent with those predicted by the theoretical bilateral oligopoly model. How market power is exercised depends on the curvature of the abatement cost function. If the marginal abatement cost function of buyers (sellers) is less steep than that of sellers (buyers), the price of permits is lower (higher) than that under perfect competition. This is because the market power of buyers (sellers) exceeds that of sellers (buyers). The price of permits is close to the perfect competitive price when all traders have the sameslope of the marginal abatement cost function.     

The effects of barriers to technology adoption on japanese prewar and postwar economic growth

Following the start of modern economic growth around the end of the 19th century, Japan’s economy had substantially lagged behind leading economies before World War II, but achieved rapid catch-up – the growth miracle – after the war. To explain the patterns, we build a dynamic model and examine the role of barriers to technology adoption. We find that such barriers hampered catch-up in the prewar period and explain about one-third of the postwar miracle. Taking a historical perspective, we argue that factors that acted as the barriers include low capacity to absorb technology, economic and political frictions with the outside world, and a lack of sufficient competition.     

An empirical investigation of the sustainability of the public deficit in Portugal

In this paper, we investigate Portuguese government expenditures and revenues as an example for a long time series. Our hypothesis states that there may be periods when the deficit is sustainable and those when it is not. Usually, after a period of unsustainable deficits, a new regime takes over. These regime shifts call for an approach that takes into account a non-constant structure of the underlying data generating process. Consequently, we use different tests which we set up in a time-varying framework. We apply and compare the results of the Trace test, Breitung’s non-parametric test and the Bohn test. We identify several break points and find that the Trace test performs worst in this case while Breitung’s test and the Bohn test give similar results. Comparing the results with history, we find that the last two tests best reflect what happened historically.     

Analysis of the Interactive Linkages Between Gold Prices,Oil Prices,and Exchange Rate in India

This study investigates the co-movements and linkages among gold prices, oil prices, and Indian rupee–dollar exchange rates for the time span of 12 January 2004 to 30 April 2015 to investigate whether Indian economic policy-makers should detach financial policies from energy policies. Various econometrical methods such as Johansen’s cointegration test, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, and impulse response were used to explain the co-movements among the variables. We find that gold prices, oil prices, and rupee–dollar exchange rates stay substantially independent from each other, which denotes energy policies and financial policies must be detached.     

Financial Management, Bargaining and Efficiency within the Household; an Empirical Analysis

This paper analyzes data from the British Household Panel Survey on households' financial management and financial decision-making. Direct subjective information was collected by asking questions like ‘Who has the final say in big financial decisions?’. All questions were answered separately by both partners. We consider two competing models explaining how finances are organized. The first model is based on a household production approach, in which behaviour is determined by an efficient allocation of both partners' time to market work, financial management, and leisure. In the second model, which is game-theoretic in nature, financial management is a reflection of bargaining power. The two models have different implications for the effect of explanatory variables, in particular wages, on the dependent variables. Empirical results indicate that financial management is primarily determined by bargaining considerations.     

Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard

Long-run purchasing power parity (LRPPP), the basis of most open economy macroeconomic models, has proved difficult to back up empirically. However, there is one standout exception to the otherwise mixed results. Diebold, Hasted, and Rush (1991) are consistently cited as having found strong evidence of LRPPP by using a fractionally integrated moving-average model whose restrictions are looser than those of traditional unit root tests. We propose structural change rather than fractional integration as a plausible behavior pattern for the data. Using the Bai-Perron (1998) test for multiple structural change, we find mean shifts in each of the real exchange rates. When those shifts are included in the model, the speed of mean reversion is greatly improved. We assert that quick mean reversion around an occasionally changing mean provides a more reasonable representation of the data than does fractional integration.