广义货币乘数研究

作者认为,货币乘数与信用扩张乘数并非同一概念,二者是有本质区别的。一般说来,货币乘数分为存款货币乘数、狭义货币乘数和广义货币乘数三种。本文即广义货币乘数。搞清基础货币的外延是准确计算货币乘数的必要前提。照搬乔敦广义货币乘数模型不妥,我国广义货币乘数模型的设计必须严格遵循广义货币乘数定义,并以我国基础货币的外延为依据。金融经济生活中的广义货币乘数,是中央银行实施宏观货币调控必须利用的媒介和手段。     

西方货币国际化理论综述

自20世纪60年代以来,随着美元霸权地位的衰落、日元国际化的推进以及欧洲货币一体化的成功进行和欧元作为国际货币的出现,货币国际化问题引起了越来越多西方学者的兴趣。对于什么样的货币能够成为国际货币、货币国际化对本国及其他国家会产生什么样的影响以及影响货币国际地位的因素等问题,西方学者从不同的角度进行了深入探讨。另外,对于国际货币之间的替代现象,学者们也通过模型分析给出了解释。     

货币形态演进的中国经验与未来走向

本文渐次考察了中国主要货币形态的历史演进过程、制度特征及其规律,发现货币形态演进中消解掉的价值要素、职能偏重和担保品的外在化,必须由相应的社会制度来维系.单纯货币形态在技术上的改进,不可能改变其作为货币商品代表的性质.铜钱、纸币和白银主导货币地位的更替演进,在于弥补先行货币形态在特定货币职能上的缺陷,它们之间相互补充.货币形态演进的中国经验表明,数字货币的登场,重在特定场景下扩展支付手段、完善货币生态,而非完全替代传统支付工具.     

货币供求理论的嬗变与发展

货币供求理论是货币经济学研究兴盛不衰的命题之一.本文系统梳理了近百年来货币供求理论的演进和发展脉络,剖析了货币理论研究“重需求,轻供给”格局的成因,并研究了未来货币供求理论发展的方向.     

The hypostasis of money: an economic point of view

The purpose of this article is to show that money is not anentity but hic et nunc a genuine mode of circulation associatedwith a genuine social organisation. Criticising money hypostasismay help to to: (i) elucidate the ambivalence of monetary relationsin our modern society (equivalence and subordination); (ii)criticise the idea that ‘primitive monies’ are nothingbut imperfect forms of our modern money and show that exoticsocieties are worth studying for themselves; and (iii) relativisethe knowledge we have about our societies and to develop comparativeanalysis. A sketchy comparison between wodani society and ourssuggests that an abduction relation exists between money andsociety.     

Buchanan on monetary constitutions

Buchanan’s reflections on monetary issues have been mostly neglected, despite their great interest both per se and for a deeper understanding of his general constitutional endeavour. We will thus propose a comprehensive assessment of Buchanan’s writings on this topic, focusing in particular on the different political models that have been developed to argue in favour of constitutional constraints on the governmental power to create money and on the implications that one can draw from our author’s monetary papers for the structure and the objectives of his constitutional discourse more generally.

The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: the case of Portugal

In this article, I analyse the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy on the Portuguese economy. I show that a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) a contraction of real GDP and a substantial increase of the unemployment rate; (ii) a quick fall in the commodity price and a gradual decrease of the price level and (iii) a downward correction of the stock price index. It also produces a ‘short-lived liquidity effect’ and helps explain the negative comovement between bonds and stocks. In addition, I find evidence suggesting the existence of a money demand function characterized by small output and interest rate elasticities. By its turn, the central bank’s policy rule follows closely the dynamics of the money markets. Finally, both the real GDP and the price level in Portugal would have been higher during almost the entire sample period if there were no monetary policy surprises.     

The demand for money in Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2, and M3 is estimated for Austria over the time period 1965–96. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and an elasticity of one for real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of a long-term interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations – considering in-sample and out-of-sample tests – are generally very good. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

Determinates of the decline in the income-velocity of money in China: a new perspective

The income velocity of money in China has been declining since the country’s reform. By studying the money demand behavior in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, we found that the marginal propensity to money demand is much higher in the non-agricultural sector. This implies that as the share of the agricultural sector in national income declines, monetary expansion is expected to meet not only the needs of income growth, but also the rapid structural shifts in the sectoral composition of income. Hence, non-inflationary monetary expansion is possible as development proceeds. This provides a new perspective in understanding the decline in the income-velocity of money in China. __________ Translated from Social Sciences in China (中国社会科学), 2005,(4) (in Chinese)     

On Marx's Analysis of Money Hoarding in the Turnover of Capital

The formation of money hoards, which underpins the demand for money, is typically treated by mainstream monetary theory as originating in the motives of the rational individual. In contrast, Marx's discussion of money hoarding treats hoard formation as a necessary tendency of capitalist production and circulation rather than as a result of the individual's predilections. Based on Marx's analysis, this article identifies several structural reasons for money hoard formation in the circuit of capital. It is also shown that Marx's discussion, despite its insight, suffers from a technical error in analysing the overlapping of production and circulation time in the circuit, and in drawing the implications for hoarding. Finally, it is argued that the broader significance of capitalist money hoarding lies in the foundations it provides for the emergence of the credit system.     

我国双目标基础货币规则的设定

通过VEC模型研究发现,我国基础货币增长率、实际GDP增长率、CPI、货币流通速度之间具有趋势特征,存在显著相关性,基础货币的可控性与可测性良好且流通速度较为稳定;基础货币对实际GDP增长率偏差的反应程度要高于通货膨胀率偏差,需在规则设定中赋予更大的权重;能实现经济增长和物价稳定双重目标的基础货币规则,其目标值的设定可以是点或是区间,而区间目标既能体现规则的严肃性又能实现操作的灵活性,还能满足货币政策逆风向调节的本质特征。     

On Realizing Profits in Money

A basic if neglected step in monetary theory is to show that a given amount of money will enable all transactions to take place in money. But if the money advanced is no more than current costs, how are profits to be realized in money? The answer requires tracing the pattern of circulation, which, in turn depends on the structure of production and distribution. The sectors have different patterns of interdependence, so imply different sequences of transactions. Borrowing is costly, so the amount of money must be minimized. These issues have been brought into focus in the interesting article of J-F Renaud.     

The relationship among money supply, banking lending and aggregate demand in China: 1994–2006

Based on the framework of Bernanke & Blinader (1988) and Walsh (2003), this paper provides a concise analysis for relationship among money supply, banking lending and aggregate demand; and makes an empirical test on relationship among China’s money supply, banking lending and aggregate demand from 1994 to 2006 by adopting the single-equation regressive model and vector autoregressive model in terms of Keynesian structural model and monetarism simplified model. The result shows that money supply and banking lending have both played a driving role on real economy. Because of non-market interest rates, Keynesian structural model cannot explain the transmission mechanism of China monetary policies better than monetarism simplified model. __________ Translated from Jingji kexue 经济科学 (Economic Science), 2008, (1): 5–15     

Money in occupied New Orleans, 1862–1868: A test of Selgin’s “salvaging” of Gresham’s Law

We examine the monetary experience of New Orleans when it was occupied during and immediately following the Civil War, using newly assembled data regarding the quantity and market value of the city’s municipal notes and the city’s fiscal position. Municipal notes, acceptable for taxes, circulated at face value in retail transactions (and at only a small discount in broker transactions) as long as their supply was sufficiently limited, and they fell out of circulation and were priced at a discount relative to interest-bearing municipal bonds, when concern arose about their overissue. The spontaneous rejection of New Orleans municipal notes exemplifies how choice in currency works when insufficiently backed money is not supported by legal tender laws.