A new integral for capacities

A new integral for capacities is introduced and characterized. It differs from the Choquet integral on non-convex capacities. The main feature of the new integral is concavity, which might be interpreted as uncertainty aversion. The integral is extended to fuzzy capacities, which assign subjective expected values to random variables (e.g., portfolios) and may assign subjective probability only to a partial set of events. An equivalence between the minimum over sets of additive capacities (not necessarily probability distributions) and the integral w.r.t. fuzzy capacities is demonstrated. The extension to fuzzy capacities enables one to calculate the integral also in cases where the information available is limited to a few events. I wish to thank Eran Hanany, David Schmeidler, Eilon Solan and especially Yaron Azrieli and the anonymous referee of Economic Theory for their helpful comments.     

Strategic Complements, Substitutes, and Ambiguity: The Implications for Public Goods

We examine the effect of ambiguity in symmetric games with aggregate externalities. We find that ambiguity will increase/decrease the equilibrium strategy in games with strategic complements/substitutes and positive externalities. These effects are reversed in games with negative externalities. We consider some economic applications of these results to Cournot oligopoly, bargaining, macroeconomic coordination, and voluntary donations to a public good. In particular we show that ambiguity may reduce free-riding. Comparative statics analysis shows that increases in uncertainty will increase donations, to a public good. Journal of Economic Literature C72, D81, H41.     

Measuring the Pace of Technological Progress: Implications for Technological Forecasting

The pace of technological progress is a construct that has evolved from technological change theories. Although the construct is well described, it lacks a valid objective measure. Measuring the pace of technological progress is believed to be important for both technology management and technology forecasting. A newly-developed objective measure of the pace of technological progress called the Technology Cycle Time indicator (TCT) is evaluated. The TCT indicator was used in two comparison analyses: (1) assessing the pace of progress of superconductor and semiconductor technologies; and (2) assessing the position of various countries patenting in the semiconductor technology field. The TCT assessments were then analytically compared with specialist assessments found in the literature. The findings revealed that the TCT provided a valid assessment in each situation. The TCT has important implications for technology management and technology forecasting research.     

解释中国农村区域间的收入不平等:一种基于回归方程的分解方法

本文提出了一个分解不平等的框架 ,在这一框架中 ,诸如收入之类的因变量的不平等可以分解为相关的回归方程中自变量或代理变量的贡献。本文所提出的分析框架可以被运用于分解任何不平等指标 ,并且对回归模型的限制条件也不多。通过将Box Cox和Box Tidwel收入决定函数结合起来的方式 ,本文定量分析了导致中国农村地区间收入不平等的根源     

Fiscal decentralization and political centralization in China: Implications for growth and inequality

China's current fiscal system is largely decentralized while its governance structure is rather centralized with strong top-down mandates and a homogeneous governance structure. Due to large differences in initial economic structures and revenue bases, the implicit tax rate and fiscal burdens to support the functioning of local government vary significantly across jurisdictions. Regions initially endowed with a broader nonfarm tax base do not need to rely heavily on preexisting or new firms to finance public goods provision, thereby creating a healthy investment environment for the nonfarm sector to grow. In contrast, regions with agriculture as the major economic activity have little resources left for public investment after paying the expenses of bureaucracy. Consequently, differences in economic structures and fiscal burdens may translate into a widening regional gap. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 713–726.     

集群新创企业平行搜索风险的识别、度量与控制——基于FMEA原理

首先基于既有研究文献从领先搜索、同步搜索和跟随搜索三个方面探讨了集群新创企业平行搜索的宽度、深度和速度可能引发的典型风险。然后借助潜在失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)原理对集群新创企业平行搜索的风险模式、风险原因及风险影响进行分析,进而厘清风险度量标准并提出风险防范措施。最后通过案例分析探讨了集群新创企业平行搜索风险的识别、度量及管控过程,为集群新创企业识别、防范重点风险的实践提供参考。     

Up the Proverbial Creek without a Paddle: Accounting for Variable Participant Skill Levels in Recreational Demand Modelling

We adapt the standard random utility model to take account of the heterogeneity of recreational preferences by using what we call a “skilled-based conditional logit framework”. By separating out our sample of whitewater kayakers into two exogenously identifiable groups (based on their skill level) and running separate conditional logits for each group we are able to take account of the fact that kayakers of different skill levels are looking for different characteristics from the whitewater site they choose to visit. We find that not taking into account the differences in the skill of the kayakers and the grade of the river will result in an overestimation of the welfare estimates associated with improvements to lower grade whitewater sites (which are frequented by basic/intermediated proficiency level kayakers) and underestimating welfare estimates associated with changes in the attributes of higher grade whitewater sites (which are frequented by advanced proficiency level kayakers).      

Measuring uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU: Monte Carlo and empirical evidence for alternative confidence intervals in a state space framework

This paper investigates uncertainty around point estimates of the euro area NAIRU in a state space framework. The relative accuracy of alternative measures of uncertainty for state space models are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. A direct bootstrap method yields confidence intervals with lower coverage probability than confidence intervals based on mean squared errors (MSE) approximations. The degree of uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU is estimated with a trivariate state space model. The direct bootstrap method shows the narrowest confidence interval compared with the MSE approximations. However, the wider intervals based on MSE approximations are narrow enough for the identification of some periods in time where observed unemployment and the NAIRU differ significantly.