论拉姆齐模型与现代宏观经济学的发展

拉姆齐在1928年所提出动态最优化模型(拉姆齐模型)及其重要思想湮没了30多年,直到20世纪60年代才被"重新发现",并对现代宏观经济学的发展产生了深远的影响.许多西方经济学家都认为,就理论分析框架而言,拉姆齐模型已经取代了IS-LM模型的位置,成为现代宏观经济学的研究范式.本文透过拉姆齐模型的略带喜剧意味的命运,追寻现代宏观经济学的发展轨迹.     

Sustainability in the Stochastic Ramsey Model

Journal of Quantitative Economics - In this paper we provide a self-contained exposition of the problem of sustaining a constant consumption level in a Ramsey model. Our focus is on the case in...     

Devaluation,Capital Mobility,and Long-Run Equilibrium*

The paper considers a small, fully employed economy with non-tradeables, securities, and money. The paper first analyzes the effects of devaluation and financial controls in the short-run equilibrium on the trade balance, the capital account, and the overall balance of payments. Disequilibria in the capital account and the overall balance of payments cause changes in the stock of securities and money, shifting the short-run equilibrium. The paper investigates the condition for the- uniqueness and stability of the long-run equilibrium under this adjustment process (‘specie flow mechanism’). Finally, the long-run equilibrium effects of devaluation and monetary policies are examined.     

Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth

We study capital accumulation and innovation as determinants of long-run growth by adding capital to our earlier model of creative destruction. No special functional forms are imposed on the aggregate production function. The equations describing perfect foresight equilibrium are identical to those of the augmented Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, except that the rate of technological change is a function of the stock of capital per effective worker. Contrary to previous models, a subsidy to capital accumulation will raise the long-run growth rate. The key assumption is that capital is used in R and D. Some evidence is presented on the capital intensity of R and D.     

试析资本资产定价模型在人力资本定价中的应用

随着高技术产业的迅猛发展，人力资本已成为继资本和劳动之后推动企业不断发展的“第三资源”，经济的增长更直接地取决于对人力资本的运作和投资，由于我国人力资本市场的发育尚不成熟，有市无价是这一阶段的主要特征，这无疑极大地制约了人力资本作用的发挥，本在借鉴资本资产定价模型的基础上，针对人力资本的特点，对人力资本定价进行研究具有重大的理论和现实意义。     

政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应

本文首先建立一个包含政府公共资本投资的两部门内生增长模型,并把公共资本投资分为政府物质资本投资和人力资本投资,从而对公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应进行理论分析。结论是,两种形式的公共资本投资对长期经济增长都可能具有正效应也可能具有负效应,取决于民间经济主体消费跨时替代弹性大小。其次,我们利用向量自回归分析框架,对我国1978—2004年间公共资本投资对长期经济增长的影响作实证分析。结论是,我国两种形式的公共资本投资与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中政府公共物质资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响更为显著,而政府公共人力资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响较小,且在短期内不利于经济增长。这一结论对我国今后科学制定财政政策和选择公共投资领域都具有重要意义。     

On the Stability of Long-Run M2 Demand in Japan

In this study we examine the stability of long-run broad money demand in Japan. In contrast to previous studies of Japanese broad money demand, we use a series of tests designed specifically to test for structural instability in the presence of I(1) processes. According to these tests, the Japanese broad money demand function appears to be stable over a period of financial innovation and deregulation.
JEL Classification Numbers: E41, C22.     

Secondary Capital Markets, Long-Run Growth, and the Term Structure of Asset Yields

An endogenous growth model is presented in which production uses a vector of capital inputs. Technologies for creating capital of different types vary by gestation period and productivity. Ownership of gestating capital must be "rolled over" in secondary capital markets in which transactions are costly. We study how reductions in transactions costs affect the equilibrium growth rate, the rate of return on saving, the volume of activity in secondary capital markets, and the term structure of asset yields. We give conditions under which reductions in transactions costs result in higher or lower growth rates.     

不确定性条件下资本市场投资预期收益模型探析

在现实经济活动中特别是在资本市场投资中,人们对将来的情况很难准确地预测到,他们所知道的最多只不过是在未来各种各样的收益状况下所可能产生的结果.也就是说,未来经济活动特别是资本市场投资活动具有不确定性.由于不确定性的预期的作用和影响,在不确定性条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型与在确定性条件下的收益模型存在着一定的偏差.只有减少人们对经济不确定性的预期,才能使资本市场投资需求旺盛.     

论按资分配对按劳分配作用范围的影响

按资分配与按劳分配是分配制度中两种重要的分配方式。二的关系是研究按劳分配与按生产要素分配相结合的重要内容。本将致力于从微观经济学和宏观经济学的新视角分析按资分配对按劳分配作用范围的影响。     

Long-Run Effects of Monetary Expansion in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the long-run effects of monetary expansion by introducing a cash-in-advance constraint into one of the basic models of endogenous growth. In our model, the real side of the economy consists of two production sectors, one of which produces a final good that can be used either for consumption or for investment and the other produces new human capital. Both sectors use physical and human capital under constant returns to scale technologies. We first characterize the balanced-growth equilibrium and then examine how a rise in money growth affects the relevant variables, such as the long-term growth rate and the relative prices.     

收益率分形分布下的一种组合投资模型

文章从资产收益率的分形分布和下方风险的角度构造了一种不相关资产的组合投资模型,并进行了相应的实例分析.     

网络产业Ramsey接入定价方法研究

网络产业放松规制、引入竞争的改革使得上游"瓶颈"环节和下游竞争性环节出现了"业务分离",催生了接入问题,并成为网络产业规制改革能否成功和有效竞争的关键.通过对用于指导网络产业单向接入定价的Ramsey接入定价方法的研究,得出结论:短期内,将接入服务和最终产品无差别对待的做法可能遭受到较大的实阻碍,从而整体最高价格上限规制的实施显得不太可能.因此,比较现实的做法是,在接入服务市场上,允许在位企业实施两部制(或多部制)接入定价方法.     

Ramsey Equilibrium in a Two-Sector Model with Heterogeneous Households

We prove an existence theorem for a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium under borrowing constraints in a two-sector model with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents. The most patient agent holds all the capital in this solution. We also show that if the capital goods sector is capital intensive and capital income is increasing in the aggregate capital stock, then the aggregate capital stock eventually is monotonic and converges to the steady state stock. If the consumption goods sector is more capital intensive and capital income is increasing in aggregate capital we prove convergence to the steady state under more restrictive conditions. Periodic equilibria are shown to exist under weaker hypotheses. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D90, E13.     

基于资本流动的动态一般均衡理论模型探讨

目前流行于理论界的新古典一般均衡理论存在两大缺陷,而以马克思理论为基础的一般均衡理论又缺乏全面性和动态化分析.本文从马克思的价值理论出发,阐述一般均衡理论的价值基础、基本原理和实现机理,继而通过引入竞争和供求因素,构建基于资本流动和统一利润率的动态一般均衡模型,分析“资本量—产量—价格—利润率—资本量”的闭环一般均衡的动态形成机制.研究表明:基于资本流动和统一利润率的马克思一般均衡理论,较之基于供求均衡的新古典一般均衡理论,更能够揭示长期均衡的现实特性和资本关系的本质;“等量劳动创造等量价值”是马克思一般均衡理论的基本原理,是确保一般均衡解唯一性的重要条件;在完全竞争和资本趋利性动力的作用下,受价值规律和平均利润率形成机制的影响,基于资本流动的动态一般均衡模型是收敛的.     

A Renewable Resource-based Ramsey Model with Costly Resource Extraction

This paper derives the analytical solution of arenewable resource-based Ramsey economy withcostly resource extraction. The goal is toascertain whether costly resource extractioncan induce nonlinear dynamical properties in the system. We find that the solution for a model with constant technology can exhibit multiple steady states,and the comparative statics effects for consumption,utility, and the stock of nature capital areambiguous in a number of different cases. Moreover, thesolution for a model with exogenous technological progress exhibits unusual comparative dynamics andthe possibility of multiple balanced growthpaths. An increase in the rate of technologicalprogress induces a long-run growth rate in per capitaconsumption that depends on parameters of the productionfunction. Overall, technological progress inthe model can be less beneficial than in the standardeconomic growth model in which resourceextraction is costless.     

论人力资本与智力资本的"虚拟资本"性质

本文认为人力资本、智力资本理论的产生,本质上是提出了"虚拟资本"问题,是对这些过去被看作是费用或成本的东西进行"资本化定价".在当代企业的资本范畴中实际上已经形成了以实体资本为一方的"硬资本"和以虚拟资本为另一方的"软资本"两大部份,而这两大部份是建立在"资本三要素"--物质资本、人力资本、智力资本基础上的.由"资本三要素"的基础概念,我们可以推解出一系列新的资本概念和形态,从中我们可以较清晰地辨别虚拟资本与实体资本的构架与层次,并可直观地厘清它们的边界与关系,这有利于我们更好地理解人力资本与智力资本的特性和功能.     

On the Long-Run Growth Effects of a Minimum Wage for a Two-Sector Economy*

This paper investigates the effect of (nationally enforced) minimum wage regulation on economic growth using the standard two-sector model. The paper shows, inter alia. that the minimum wage regulation (if it is effective) always lowers the rate of growth by inducing over-capitalization in the economy, and that a minimum wage poor which is sufficiently high causes the economy to decay continually. A diagrammatical exposition of some of the results is also provided.     

On the long-run wealth distribution in a simple Ramsey model with heterogeneous households

This paper analyzes the long-run wealth distribution in a Ramsey model where individuals have a common rate of time preference but different intertemporal elasticities of substitution. As a result, it is shown that heterogeneity among households in intertemporal substitution is sufficient for the existence of a non-degenerate long-run wealth distribution. We also investigate the properties of the long-run wealth distribution and the transition of capital and consumption using the phase diagram.     

On Ramsey equilibrium: capital ownership pattern and inefficiency

We provide a sufficient condition on the production function under which eventually the most patient household owns the entire capital stock in every Ramsey equilibrium, called the turnpike property. This generalizes the result in the literature which establishes the turnpike property using the capital income monotonicity condition. We then provide an example of a Ramsey equilibrium in which the most patient household reaches a no capital position infinitely often. This is a strong refutation of the turnpike property on Ramsey equilibria. We also show that the constructed Ramsey equilibrium is inefficient in terms of the aggregate consumption stream that it provides.