Prospects for integration of financial markets in CIS countries

This article deals with macroeconomic preconditions for financial integration and strengthening the role of the ruble in the post-Soviet space. Particular attention is paid to the developmental priorities of stock markets and the interaction of the CIS exchanges. The integration of the financial infrastructure, the implementation of cross-border payments in national currencies, stock market development, and the growth of investment activity in CIS countries are important areas of integration processes and dealing with the crisis.     

Some features of economic and financial crises in the course of global integration

Based on an analysis of some of the largest financial crises of the last two decades, the author concludes that crises are rooted in advance regulation miscalculations of monetary authorities and their lack of competence in pursuing a responsible macroeconomic policy. Equally important is financial markets’ ingenuity in creating new instruments, interpreting accounting principles, etc. In closing, several financial market indicators are described, which can help with estimating the degree of crisis threat to a particular national financial market. The article is based on the 2008 data.     

Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach

This study is conducted to investigate the prediction of corporate financial distress based on the Merton (1974) market-based Distance to Default (DD) model over the period from 1997 to 2016 which covers a range of economic financial circumstances, including the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The study focusses on the six largest countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike previous studies which focus mainly on bankruptcy, this paper focusses on early warning distress indicators that signal distress well before bankruptcy. This is when firms experience difficulty in servicing debt as measured by interest coverage ratio (ICR) at a firm level and non-performing loans (NPLs) at a country level. Key empirical findings from this paper indicate that the market-based distance-to-default (DD) model is generally a good early warning indicator of financial distress in the following year, particularly for ICR, but that prediction accuracy varies between individual countries in the Southeast Asian region.     

Trade credit and financial crises in Kazakhstan

This paper studies the trade credit and delinquency behavior in Kazakhstan paying attention to the effects of two recent crises using a unique dataset of large firms and SMEs from the year 2009 to 2016. Our estimates suggest that the relationship between trade and bank credit is mainly substitutional except that it was complementary for large firms following the year 2014–5 crisis. This new piece of evidence on the non-uniform relationship between trade and bank credit during crisis might provide more insight into the mixed findings in the literature. We also discern that trade credit demand is more prevalent among capital-intensive firms. Kazakhstani firms pass along a sizeable portion of their delinquent receivable to their trade credit suppliers. The transmission of trade credit delinquency, additionally, is amplified during the year 2014–5 economic crisis but the year 2009 global financial crisis.     

金融体系结构与经济增长:对东亚国家的启示

金融体系结构对经济增长的作用是一个具有理论和现实意义的问题，直接影响到国家的政策选择。本文从此问题入手，比较了市场导向型金融体系与银行导向型金融体系在促进经济增长方面的作用机制的不同，对广大东亚国家来说，应该根据自身情况大力发展银行体系。     

Financial crises and reform of the international financial system

Between December 1994 and March 1999, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Russia and Brazil experienced major financial crises, which were associated with massive recessions and extreme movements of exchange rates. Similar crises have threatened Turkey and Argentina (2000 and 2001) and most recently Brazil (again). This article discusses the reform of the international financial system with a focus on the role of the IMF—reforms directed at crisis prevention, and those intended to improve the responses to crises. The article concludes with an appraisal of what has been achieved, and what remains to be done to make the international financial system safer. JEL no. E5, E6, F3, F4, G1     

The situation in currency markets in the CIS countries in 2009

The situation with currency markets in the CIS countries in 2009 was characterized by considerable fluctuations in national currencies against the background of the major problems in the financial sector, economic recession in most countries, slowing inflation in the consumer market, and deflation in prices of manufactured goods.     

The main determinants of banking crises in OECD countries

Banks’ stability can be affected by economic fluctuations, banks’ risk-taking behavior, connections among banks and countries’ financial system structure. At the same time, banking regulation and supervision were designed to protect banks from failure, but a large number of banking crises were not prevented recently. Using binary response models for panel data and focusing on OECD countries, this paper studies the main determinants of banking crises over a period of 21 years. Results suggest a bank’s high debt and a country’s low GDP growth rate as the major determinants of banking crises. There is also evidence of contagion across countries from the same geographical region and from G7 to other countries, and that bank-based financial systems are less prone to borderline banking crises. Regulatory and supervision practices are found not to have been relevant in bankruptcy prevention.     

The lender-of-last-resort function in the context of national and international financial crises

Zusammenfassung Die Funktion als Kreditgeber letzter Instanz im Zusammenhang mit nationalen und internationalen Finanzkrisen. - Die Stabilit?t des Finanzsystems kann als ein ?ffentliches Gut angesehen werden, das Interventionen der Regierung erfordert, sei es durch die Zentralbank als Kreditgeber letzter Instanz, sei es durch ein Zwangsversicherungs-system für Einlagen. Selbst wenn die Zentralbank ihre volle “monet?re Souver?nit?t” über die heimischen Banken ausüben kann, soweit es sich um Rettungsma\nahmen in heimischer W?hrung und um die Kreditüberwachung zur Einschr?nkung von “moral hazard” handelt, so sind doch ihre Ma\nahmen als Kreditgeber letzter Instanz für internationale Banken begrenzt, weil sie nicht immer über ausreichende Devisenreserven verfügt. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird den Kriterien für die Zahlungsunf?higkeit eines Schuldnerlandes gewidmet, die sich wesentlich von denen eines Unternehmens unterscheiden.

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Résumé La fonction du ?prêteur en dernier ressort? en contexte des crises financières nationales et internationales. - La stabilité du système financier peut être considérée comme bien collectif rendant nécessaire des interventions gouvernementales en terme de la fonction du ?prêteur en dernier ressort? par la banque centrale ou d’un système d’assurance dépositaire obligatoire. Même bien qu’ une banque centrale puisse exercer son entière ?souveraineté monétaire? sur les banques locales en ce qui concerne des opérations de sauvetage en monnaie locale et la surveillance de crédit pour réduire le ?moral hazard? ses actions comme ?prêteur en dernier ressort? pour des banques internationales sont limitées parce qu’elles ne disposent pas d’assez de réserves internationales. L’auteur tire l’attention particulière aux critères d’insolvabilité d’un pays débiteur qui sont essentiellement différents de ceux d’une entreprise.

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Resumen La funcióen de acreedor de última instancia en el contexte de las crisis financieres nacionales e internationales. - La estabilidad del sistema financiero puede ser considerada como un bien público que necesita intervenciones del gobierno através de la función de acreedor de última instancia que cumple el banco central o de un sistema obligatorio de seguro de depósito. A pesar de que un banco central pueda ejercer su plena ?soberanía monetaria? sobre los bancos nacionales con respecta a operaciones de apoyo con moneda local y al control del crédite a efectos de reducir el moral hazard, las posibilidades de actuar como acreedor de última instancía son limitadas por no disponer de suficientes reservas internacionales. Especial atenciólan se le presta a los criterios de insolvencia que en el caso de un país deudor difieren escencialmente de los que son aplicables a empresas.

     

新兴市场国家金融危机原因浅析

新兴市场国家经济在过去的20年里取得了举世瞩目的成就,但自20世纪90年代开始,其却频频受到金融危机的冲击:1994年的墨西哥危机、1997年的东南亚危机、1998年的俄罗斯危机、2001年的阿根廷危机。这反映了新兴市场国家在金融全球化进程中的脆弱性。本文主要详细分析新兴市场国     

System effects of integration of electric power complexes in CIS countries

The paper considers the present state and prospects for the future of the electric power systems (EPS’s) of post-Soviet countries. In an analysis of the dynamics of exchanges of electric power flows between these countries, the systemic effects of the current interaction have been found and some of them economically estimated. Estimates are given of the potential capacity effects from the coincidence of annual and daily curves of power load that can be achieved at present and in prospect until 2030 due to cooperation between these national energy systems. The obtained results show a considerable potential of power integration in the region.     

Forecasting indicators of personal income differences

Forecasting of the distribution and differentiation parameters of personal cash income is discussed. Methods for forecasting parameters of population distribution by per capita income are proposed, and these parameters are correlated to predicted macroeconomic indices. Diagrams of transition to the Lorenz curve are presented. The dependence of income spread indices on parameters of income distribution of the population is established. Additional, more informative and accurate, income spread indices are proposed.     

Growth in economic relations of China and India with the GCC countries

The oil‐rich Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have rapidly expanded their economic relations with Asian countries recently, particularly China and India. The main reason behind this development is that the regions complement each other in several dimensions. China and India are the fastest‐growing, oil‐consuming nations in the world, while GCC countries have the largest proven deposits of oil and gas. The GCC is interested in China and India as reliable oil customers over the long‐run and the latter look at the GCC as reliable suppliers of oil and gas. The two regions are also attracted to each other because both are enjoying strong economic growth and offer many investment opportunities to the other. It is expected that GCC economic relations with China and India will grow stronger in the coming decades and serve as a good example of South–South economic cooperation for other developing countries.     

Egypt's economic relations with the socialist countries

The economic relations between Egypt and the socialist countries (1948-73) are discussed and appraised in the context of the political, economic and historical factors which brought them about and maintained them. It is argued that, because of special circumstances, Egypt had little choice but to develop close economic ties with the Soviet bloc. Bilateral trade has known disadvantages; the USSR, however, links trade with generous credit-an attractive feature for LDCs suffering from chronic balance-of-payments deficits. Other advantages and costs of bilateral trade are also discussed. The paper includes comments on Soviet development assistance. A main theme is that Egypt, considering the restrictions imposed on her options by the polarization of the Arab-Israeli conflict, fared well in the relationship. Export and import prices in bilateral agreements seem to have corresponded to world prices, often with a premium in Egypt's favour. Egypt also benefited from a large inflow of resources and from a significant contribution to domestic capital formation.     

East Asian equity markets,financial crises,and the Japanese currency

The paper studies the interactions between the US and four East Asian equity markets. The focus is on the change in the information structure/flow between these markets triggered by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It is shown that the information structure during the crisis period is different from that in the non-crisis periods. While the US market leads the four East Asian markets before, during, and after the crisis, it is Granger-caused by these markets during the financial crisis period but not in the post-crisis sample. Further, in accordance with concerns reported in the market, the Japanese currency is found to affect these equity markets during the crisis period. The Japanese yen effect, however, disappears in the post-crisis sample. The Japanese currency effect is quite robust as it is found from both local currency and US dollar return data and in the presence of Japanese stock returns. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 138–152.     

我国第一大港上海港2007年主要指标完成情况

我国最大的港口上海港海港部分2007年底码头长度24468米，泊位数174个，其中万吨级泊位80个；生产用码头长度22194米，泊位数121个，其中万吨级泊位80个；非生产码头长度2274米，泊位数53个。上海港由海港与内河港两部分组成。上海港2007年主要指标完成量如下：