公司财务业绩与股票价格关系的实证研究——来自金属、非金属制造业上市公司的研究

影响上市公司股票价格波动的因素很多,财务业绩无疑是其中最重要的。从反映公司业绩的财务指标出发,通过对选取的样本进行统计性描述和计量经济分析,发现股票价格与反映公司盈利能力的每股收益变量呈显著正相关,与流通股本规模呈显著负相关。     

安徽省上市公司资本结构影响因素实证研究

本文针对安徽省上市公司资本结构的现状,通过实证分析的方法对其资本结构影响因素进行了研究。以资产负债率作为反映资本结构指标的被解释变量,以盈利能力、成长性、存货周转率等为解释变量,系统考察它们之间的关系,同时使用T和F检验来加以验证。本文发现盈利能力、存货周转率与资本结构有显著的相关关系。而公司的成长性、资产规模、股权结构等因素对资产负债率的影响不显著。     

安徽省上市公司资本结构影响因素实证研究

本文针对安徽省上市公司资本结构的现状,通过实证分析的方法对其资本结构影响因素进行了研究.以资产负债率作为反映资本结构指标的被解释变量,以盈利能力、成长性、存货周转率等为解释变量,系统考察它们之间的关系,同时使用T和F检验来加以验证.本文发现盈利能力、存货周转率与资本结构有显著的相关关系.而公司的成长性、资产规模、股权结构等因素对资产负债率的影响不显著.     

基于跳跃-扩散KMV模型的上市公司信用风险评估

本文在传统KMV模型基础上进行改进,引入风险资产价格的跳跃因素,构建跳跃-扩散KMV模型。分别从行业属性、公司属性和公司规模三个角度,对我国126家上市公司的跳跃风险进行估计,并对其信用风险进行度量。在此基础上,以测算的违约距离为被解释变量,以经济周期、跳跃风险及反映企业自身经营情况的财务指标为解释变量,利用固定效应模型实证检验企业信用风险的影响因素。结果表明,使用跳跃-扩散KMV模型度量上市公司信用风险的效果较好,测量结果与我国实际情况较吻合;同时企业的信用风险与其自身的偿债能力和跳跃风险呈显著正相关,而与其盈利能力、成长能力、营运能力及宏观经济状况呈显著负相关。     

我国货币政策有效性及其与股票市场的交互影响*——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

本文构建以货币政策变量、股票价格变量和宏观经济变量为基础且同时施加有短期和长期约束的结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型,将货币政策与股票市场的当期关系纳入分析,利用1997—2015年的数据,实证检验了我国货币政策和股票市场间的交互作用及其对宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,现阶段我国货币政策冲击对股票市场没有显著影响,但股票价格冲击在2005年人民币汇率制度改革之后对我国的产出、M2供应及通货膨胀影响的显著性均明显提升。     

大单交易与股票价格:来自我国沪市的经验证据

本文利用上证180指数成分股交易数据,分析了A股市场大单交易对股票价格的影响。实证结果显示,无论大单交易是买方驱动还是卖方驱动,都对股票价格具有显著的暂时影响和永久影响,其中暂时影响程度与交易量显著正相关,而永久影响程度与交易量之间不存在简单的线性关系。另外,股票市值、股票收益率的波动性和市场环境等三个变量均是大单交易对股票价格影响程度的显著因素。     

上市公司财务信息与股价的关联性分析——基于房地产行业进行的实证研究

随着证券市场的不断发展和上市公司信息披露机制的不断完善,上市公司的财务信息对投资者的投资行为产生的影响也越来越显著,反映在市场上就是公司的股票价格随着财务信息的披露而出现波动。本文通过相关性和回归分析的统计方法,验证了房地产行业中公司财务信息与股价之间的连动性关系。     

流动性对股票价格波动影响的实证分析

股票市场流动性高低对股票价格波动具有重要影响。无论在横盘时期、牛市时期还是在熊市时期,以换手率作为度量的流动性与股票价格波动都显著正相关。只有在熊市时期以流通市值衡量的公司规模与股票价格波动显著负相关,即存在小盘股效应。以上实证结论对于分析股票市场的微观结构和推出股指期货均具有参考和借鉴价值。     

股票价格与公司盈利的随机关系研究

本文从公司未来盈利及其增长率的随机性出发,通过将公司盈利(及其增长率)与股票价格(及其变动率)看作是二维随机变量,借助于市盈率这个联系股价与公司盈利的桥梁与纽带的作用,运用概率论中的条件概率分析方法,研究了股票价格变动率与公司盈利增长率的随机关系,首次提出了一个反映股票市场价格随公司盈利的变动而变动的随机关系模型。     

电力行业上市公司治理结构与公司绩效关系的实证研究

本文运用深沪两市57家电力行业上市公司2006年的数据,采用多元线性回归分析方法,从内外两种治理机制对公司绩效的影响进行了实证分析。结果发现,电力行业上市公司的治理结构中,对公司绩效影响较显著的因素分别是:第一大股东的持股比例、前五大股东持股比例之和、反映控制权市场的系数Masc以及高管人员的报酬等四大因素。而对于其他反映治理结构的变量,尤其是反映董事会特征的变量,对公司绩效没有显著的影响作用。     

限售股流通与股价效应关系的实证研究

本文运用事件研究法对限售股上市流通的股价效应进行了实证研究。研究结果袁明：限售股的上市流通带来负的股价效应;样本公司的特征及股票的交易特性显著影响股价效应;在累积超额收益率为正的样本中,累积超额收益率与净资产收益率负相关,与区间日均股票换手率、股票每股收益正相关;在累积超额收益率为负的样本中,累积超额收益率与IPO到限售流通股上市流通的时间、账面市值比、区间日均成交量负相关。     

Explaining the Concentration-Profitability Paradox

This paper explains an empirical paradox which is often found, but generally ignored: a significant negative econometric relationship between profitability and market share concentration. The phenomenon can appear when there is a negative correlation between market share and costs—for example due to economies of scale. I show that concentration becomes an indicator for the cost competitiveness of direct rivals within an industry. Profitability of a given firm is undermined if price correlates positively with average industry costs (Classical natural prices) and frictions like sunk costs make an industry exit expensive for firms. This idea also explains the frequent findings of highly persistent profit rate differentials.     

Stock market crash of 2008: an empirical study of the deviation of share prices from company fundamentals

The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of 7796 worldwide companies for the period 2004–2013. We develop a panel regression model using three financial indicators – dividends per share, cash flow per share and book value per share – as explanatory variables for share price. We then estimate individual company fundamentals for each year by removing the time fixed effects from the two-way fixed effects model, which we identified as the best of the panel regression models.

Based on these results, we analyse the market anomaly quantitatively using the divergence rate – the rate of the deviation of share price from a company’s fundamentals. We find that share prices on average were overvalued in the period from 2005 to 2007 and were undervalued significantly in 2008, when the global financial crisis occurred. Share prices were equivalent to the fundamentals on average in the subsequent period. Our empirical results clearly demonstrate that the worldwide stock market fluctuated excessively in the time period before and just after the global financial crisis of 2008.     

The labour income share and the relative price of investment in the US: an empirical investigation

Several studies argue that the recent decline in the secular trend of the labour income share is mostly driven by capital-embodied technological progress which is typically identified with trend reductions in the relative price of investment. In this paper, I use data from the United States to assess the nature of the relationship between trends in the labour share and the relative price of investment. Results from co-integration tests reveal that the share and the relative price of investment are most likely not co-integrated. However, co-variation tests indicate that both time series share a common stochastic component, and additional tests of structural breaks point at the presence of a common change in the mean or trend of both series. These results suggest that capital-embodied or investment-specific technological progress may have played an important role in the decline of the secular trend of the labour share.     

我国股权分置改革中对价支付公平性的实证研究

自2005年4月份以来,我国的上市公司开始实行股权分置改革,至2007年底已基本完成。股改的实质问题是上市公司非流通股东和流通股东间的利益分配,我们主要通过分析股权分置改革中,非流通股东向流通股东支付的对价水平来研究其公平性的问题。我们使用了常用的对非流通股定价的原理,得出的结论是,流通股股东每10股就少得了1．501股对价支付,绝对不平等率达50％左右。     

Market share instability and stock price volatility during the industry life-cycle: the US automobile industry

Market share instability, during certain stages of the industry life-cycle, has become a stylized fact in the industrial organization literature. In the finance literature, volatility in the form of excess volatility, i.e. the much larger volatility of stock prices than dividends (although stock prices should in theory trace the present value of future dividends), has given rise to controversies regarding stock price determination (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Shiller, 1989). Recent evolutionary models, both theoretical and empirical, have tied the presence of market share instability to industry specific variables, such as specific periods in the industry life-cycle and specific “technological regimes”. The object of the paper is to explore whether there is a relationship between market share instability and stock price volatility and to what degree this relationship is connected to the concept of the industry life-cycle, and hence to industry specific factors. To do so, we explore the relationship in one particular industry, the US automobile industry. Since neither life-cycle nor finance theories attack this problem directly, we use insights from both approaches to build hypotheses which guide the data analysis. The empirical results confirm many of these hypotheses, suggesting that the degree of excess volatility is indeed partly affected by industry specific factors.     

品牌需求价格弹性与市场份额的关系——国内手机行业实证研究

文章用回归估计的方法计算了国内手机行业22个品牌的价格弹性,并对价格弹性与市场份额的关系进行了实证研究.实证结果显示,市场份额越大,价格弹性越朝负的方向变动,这与国外实证研究的结果相反,反映了转型过程中中国手机市场的特征.同时,与以往很多研究所采用的线性回归方程不同,价格弹性与市场份额之间的关系是非线性的,回归方程为逆函数.价格弹性与市场份额环比发展速度之间也存在着显著的关系,回归方程为二次函数.     

Determining the information share of liquidity and order flows in extreme price movements

Liquidity and order flows have been found to be major causes of extreme price movements (EPMs) in previous studies. However, few studies have clarified whether the impacts of these factors to EPMs are transient or permanent. In this paper, we represent the fluctuation of liquidity as a time series of price. The measurement of permanent price impact is converted to the price discovery problem solved by a quantile vector error correction model. Empirical results using the high frequency data in the Chinese stock market indicate that both liquidity and order flows contribute to the permanent component of the EPMs. However, liquidity is the dominating factor, which accounts for more than 60–80% of the information share in EPMs scenarios.     

Contract settlement specification and price discovery: Empirical evidence in Australia individual share futures market

This study applies Geweke [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 76 (1982) 304] measures of information flow and dependence between Australian individual share futures (ISF) contract and its underlying stock market to investigate whether the price discovery function of futures price has been enhanced after the switch of futures contracts from cash settlement to physical delivery. It is found that the spot market leads the futures market as the futures trading volume is rather small. Further tests suggest that the switch from cash settlement to physical delivery in the ISF contracts has reinforced the information flow from the spot market to the futures market.     

Cyclicality of markups and real wages in Korea

This paper examines the cyclical patterns of markups, real wages, and labor share for Korean industries. Markup ratio is greater than 1 in most industries. Markups are countercyclical, and real wages and labor share are procyclical. Income distribution effect has more impact on determining markups than price and technology effect.