The cost of carry model and regime shifts in stock index futures markets: An empirical investigation

This article examines empirically the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices in stock index futures markets employing a class of nonlinear, regime‐switching‐vector‐equilibrium‐correction models, which is novel in this context. Using data for the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 over the post‐1987 crash period, it is shown that a long‐run relationship between spot and futures prices exists, which implies mean reversion of the basis. After providing strong evidence against the hypothesis of linear dynamics in the relationship under investigation, regime‐switching‐vector‐equilibrium‐correction models for spot and futures price movements are developed and shown to capture well the time‐series properties of our data, consistent with a large theoretical and empirical literature. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:603–624, 2000.     

Risk premiums and predictive ability of BAX futures

This study provides an in‐depth analysis of risk premiums in the Canadian Bankers' Acceptances futures (BAX) market. The predictive regressions for excess and holding‐period returns on BAX futures lend empirical support to the presence of time‐varying risk premiums especially at longer horizons. Despite the evidence of time variation in the risk premium, however, the unbiasedness of the basis as a predictor of spot returns in forecast efficiency regressions cannot be rejected. The out‐of‐sample forecasts of spot returns demonstrate the excellent predictive ability of models that exploit the restrictions implied by the unbiasedness hypothesis. Overall, our findings support the presence of a slowly moving risk premium and entail important practical implications for measuring monetary policy expectations and portfolio allocation. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Transactions data tests of efficiency: An investigation in the Singapore futures markets

The aim of this article is to test the profitability of technical trading rules in the intra‐day currency futures market. A wide range of technical strategies are applied to tick data over a two‐year period for two currency futures—Japanese Yen (JY) and Deutschemark (DM)—traded in the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. The study finds that after incorporating transactions costs and testing for the significance of the profits using a bootstrap methodology, none of the technical trading systems produce significant returns. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:687–704, 2000     

Asymmetric information in commodity futures markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article examines the theoretical and empirical implications of asymmetric information in commodity futures markets. In particular, it formulates and tests a theoretical model that recognizes two distinct categories of traders: hedgers, who participate in both spot and futures markets, and speculators, who participate only in the futures market. Speculators are assumed to possess differential information about the realized values of selected random variables. Multiperiod futures market equilibria are derived under competitive conditions, and the ability of futures markets to forecast changes in equilibrium spot market prices are examined. The key variable is shown to be the randomness and informational asymmetry in the aggregate supply by participating hedgers in the spot market, whose absence turns out to be the major determinant of the revelation of informational asymmetry. Moreover, under the assumption of independence of error forecasts for prices and spot market supplies, it is shown that futures market equilibrium ends up with linear expressions for prices and futures contract volumes. These linear expressions are then used to develop empirically testable models. The main empirical implications in these models revolve around the role of the basis as a predictor of future spot price changes. The paper provides an empirical investigation of these implications, using three commodities traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:803–825, 1998     

Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation

This paper presents new evidence on information asymmetries in inter-dealer FX markets. We employ a new USD/DEM data set covering the activities of multiple dealers over one trading week. We utilise and extend the VAR structure introduced in Hasbrouck [J. Finance 46(1) (1991) 179] to quantify the permanent effects of trades on quotes and show that asymmetric information accounts for around 60% of average bid-ask spreads. Further, 40% of all permanent price variation is shown to be due to transaction-related information. Finally, we uncover strong time-of-day effects in the information carried by trades that are related to the supply of liquidity to D2000-2; at times when liquidity supply is high, individual trades have small permanent effects on quotes but the proportion of permanent quote variation explained by overall trading activity is relatively high. In periods of low liquidity supply the converse is true—individual trades have large permanent price effects but aggregate trading activity contributes little to permanent quote evolution.     

An empirical investigation of immigrant effects: the experience of firms operating in the emerging markets

The immigrant effect consists of the ‘employer’ and the ‘employee’ effect. This study focuses on the ‘employee’ effect. Existing studies on the immigrant effect have identified its contributions to international trade and international marketing management but have not explained under what circumstances this effect can be used to achieve a firm's objectives when operating in a foreign market. This study explores the profile of the firms which have used this effect to assist their operations in three foreign host markets (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan). Based on the outcomes of a multivariate logistic regression analysis, this study has generated a number of useful findings. Firm size is not suggested as a factor for the selection of immigrant effects. Firms are more likely to adopt an immigrant effect when their products are new to the markets. FDI mode users tend to be more likely to use the immigrant effect. Usage of immigrant effects is also found to be associated with firms from a smaller domestic economy. The immigrant effect is often used to break cultural barriers between home and host markets, but is more helpful when the marketing infrastructure in the home and host markets is similar. The choice of immigrant effect is suggested to have no influence on firms' performance in the host markets.     

Causality in futures markets

This study tests causal hypotheses emanating from theories of futures markets by utilizing methods appropriate for disproving causal relationships with observational data. The hedging pressure theory of futures markets risk premiums, the generalized version of the normal backwardation theory of Keynes, is rejected. Theories predicting that the activity levels of speculators or uninformed traders affect levels of price volatility, either positively or negatively, are also rejected. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1039–1057, 2006     

Catastrophe futures and reinsurance contracts: An incomplete markets approach

We present a theoretical methodology for the pricing of catastrophe (CAT) derivatives with event‐dependent and non‐convex payoffs given the price of a CAT indexed futures contract. We do not assume a fully diversifiable CAT event risk, nor do we assume knowledge of the martingale probability measure beyond the futures price. We derive tight bounds on the contract value and present trading strategies exploiting the mispricing whenever the bounds are violated. We estimate the bounds of the reinsurance contract with data from hurricane landings in Florida. Our method is also applicable when there is no futures market but the price of a CAT‐indexed bond is available.     

An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets

Commodity futures and equity markets differ in several important respects. Nevertheless, it was found that momentum profits in commodities are highly significant for holding periods as long as 9 months, and returns to momentum strategies are roughly equal in magnitude to those that have been reported in stocks. The profits documented are too large to be subsumed by transactions costs. Although the momentum strategies appear to be quite risky, their profitability cannot be fully accounted for in the context of a market factor model. Further, it is shown that momentum profits eventually reverse if positions are maintained long enough after portfolio formation. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:227–256, 2007