Empirical analysis of the impact of cigarette excise taxes on cigarette consumption: estimates from recent state-level data

The adverse health effects from cigarette smoking account for an estimated 443,000 deaths annually in the U.S. Given this circumstance, this study has two objectives. First, it uses a state-level panel data set for a recent time frame to investigate the impact of federal plus state cigarette excise taxes (along with a variety of other factors) on the aggregate consumption of cigarettes. The study adopts a state-level panel data series spanning the period 2002 through 2007, which is the most recent panel for which data for all of the variables are available. Consistent with a number of previous studies, the PLS estimates in this study find that the higher the cigarette excise tax, the lower the aggregate volume of cigarettes consumed. Of course, this outcome does not address the practical problem of the substitution of high nicotine cigarettes for low nicotine cigarettes in the presence of a significant cigarette tax hike. This circumstance leads to the second objective of this study, namely, to propose a general template for a different kind of cigarette excise tax, one that is tied directly to each cigarette brand’s nicotine and tar content.     

The effect of marketing regulations on efficiency: LeChatelier versus coordination effects

Government regulations designed to promote social welfare can have unintended consequences on efficiency. According to the LeChatelier Principle, regulations that effectively limit substitution possibilities among inputs will reduce firm and industry-wide efficiency. In imperfectly competitive markets, however, government constraints on a strategic variable can facilitate coordination. An advertising restriction, for example, would improve efficiency if it enables firms to produce the same level of sales with less advertising spending. We use data envelopment analysis to estimate the effect of marketing regulations on efficiency in the U.S. cigarette industry. Unlike previous studies, we do not assume that marketing and production technologies are separable. Our results demonstrate that coordination effects dominate LeChatelier effects. Cigarette producers have benefited from advertising restrictions, a result consistent with the capture theory of regulation.

The impact of nicotine replacement therapies on cigarette demand

Over the past 20 years, several nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs) have been approved for use as smoking cessation aids, with over-the-counter use of these products approved beginning in 1996. To date, only one econometric study has examined the impact of NRT on cigarette demand, providing limited evidence that the availability of these products has reduced cigarette demand. This paper adds to this limited literature by examining the impact of NRT availability, pricing, and use on U.S. cigarette demand, concluding that NRT is a substitute for cigarettes and that the elasticity of cigarette demand with respect to NRT sales is-0.06. Support for this research has been provided by GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare. We thank Stavros Tsipas, Tomas Rinkunas, and Kenneth Jackson for excellent research assistance.     

Advertising conjectures and the nature of advertising competition in an oligopoly

We estimate advertising conjectural variations within a simultaneous system that includes advertising and demand equations for cigarette manufacturers. This allows insight into advertising decisions in an oligopoly. The advertising conjectures are positive and statistically significant, indicating that firms do not hold Cournot conjectures as is usually assumed in theoretical models. Instead, firms perceive that their rivals will respond directly to their own advertising. We also find evidence that, while cigarette advertising rearranges market share by increasing firm-level demand relative to rivals' demand, it also increases market demand for cigarettes. Hence there are positive spillovers from advertising in the cigarette industry.     

A microeconomic planning model for the new york times newspaper

The New York Times model is a large-scale model which forecasts sales and earnings for the New York Times newspaper. Sturcturally, it is composed of two major blocks; a demand module, and a production, cost and revenue module. The demand module, the heart of the model, is a set of simultaneous nonlinear econometric equations which forecast physical volume, approximately 35 categories of advertising lines and 10 categories of circulation. The second block is recursive and contains roughly 300 equations, some of which are stochastic behavioral equations. This block converts the volume forecasts into paging, newsprint consumption, newsprint distribution and manning requirements. These physical flows are then monetized, using price and wage forecasts, to produce estimates of revenue, fixed and variable costs, and operating profit. This paper summarizes the development of the model, with emphasis on the advertising and circulation model. It should be noted that the structure of the model is constantly evolving. Consequently, emphasis is placed on the conceptual underpinnings of the model not on a detailed presentation of the current structure.     

Convergence-divergence of U.S. State unemployment rates

The dispersion of U.S. state unemployment rates and those of many industrialized countries has been observed to maintain persistent dispersion. This paper, by using a model of conditional expectation, investigates the question wheter there was a tendency toward convergence or divergence of the U.S. state unemployment rates. The paper identifies the states that persistently performed above or below unemployment expectations on average for the period 1978–1999. Data were provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.(JELR10)     

The advertising-to-sales ratio along the brand life cycle: A critical review

The purpose of this study is to suggest a general decision framework for determining the advertising to sales (A/S) ratio during different stages of the brand life cycle, based on past empirical evidence, as reported in the marketing literature.     

When (not) to indulge in ‘puffery’: the role of consumer expectations and brand goodwill in determining advertised and actual product quality

We analyze why some firms advertise product quality at a level different from the actual quality of a product. By considering the interacting effects of product quality and advertising, we develop a dynamic model of consumer expectations about product quality and the development of brand goodwill to determine the optimal values for the decision variables. The model parameters are determined based on prior literature and we use numerical techniques to arrive at the solution. We then derive conditions under which a firm will find it optimal to overstate or understate product quality. The results suggest that quality may be overstated in markets characterized by high price sensitivity, low quality sensitivity, low brand loyalty, and high source credibility, suggesting the need for vigilance on the part of consumers, upper level managers and regulatory authorities in such market conditions. This is important because current regulatory resources are insufficient to reduce deceptive advertising practices (Davis JJ. 1994. Ethics in advertising decision‐making: implications for reducing the incidence of deceptive advertising. Journal of Consumer Affairs 28 : 380–402). Further, the law of deceptive advertising prohibits some advertising claims on the ground that they are likely to harm consumers or competitors (Preston IL, Richards JI. 1993. A role for consumer belief in FTC and Lanham Act deceptive advertising cases. American Business Law Journal 31 : 1–29). Also, Nagler (1993. Rather bait than switch: deceptive advertising with bounded consumer rationality. Journal of Public Economics 51 : 359–378) shows that deceptive advertising causes a net social welfare loss and a public policy effectively preventing deception will improve social welfare. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consumers' surplus and the demand for cigarettes

This paper examines the demand for cigarettes in South Africa over a 20-year period from 1970 to 1989. Consumption per capita was found to be significantly determined by price and disposable income per capita; but not by advertising. Price and income elasticities and consumers' surplus were computed from the demand model. The question was raised as to whether or not consumers' surplus should be regarded as having been inferred from a health-hazard-discounted demand schedule. The answer depends on the degree to which smoking decisions are taken with full information or, conversely, are influenced by habit. Given the latter assumption, the consumers' surplus measured for cigarette consumption is nevertheless substantially higher than the estimated health costs of smoking as computed by the Medical Research Council.     

Accounting Information and Investment Risk Perception in Japan*

This paper investigates the issue of whether financial reports appear to convey information on risk on a consistent basis across international capital markets. Data collected from a sample of Japanese financial analysts are compared to previously reported data from U.S. analysts. The results indicate that traditional accounting measures of risk explain substantial variation in the average risk perceptions of financial analysts in both the U.S. and Japan; however, while accounting risk measures were found to explain significant variation in ex post beta for the U.S. sample, this was not found to be the case for the Japanese sample. The implications of these cross-national differences and similarities are discussed.     

Distribution of product statistics from aPareto population

Summary Distributions are derived of the product of sample values, the sample geometric mean, the product of two minimum values from sample of unequal size and product ofk minimum values from sample of equal size from aPareto population. The distributions can be conveniently transformed tox ². Paper presented at the Eastern Regional meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Upton, Long Island, New York, April 27–29, 1966. Work done when the author was on the faculty of Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, U.S.A.     

THE RESURGENCE OF INVENTORY RESEARCH: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Abstract. Recent empirical and theoretical research on business inventories is surveyed and critically evaluated. While most inventory research has had macroeconomic motivations, we focus on its microtheoretic basis and on potential conflicts between theory and evidence. The paper asks two principal questions. First, how can inventories, which are allegedly used by firms to stabilize production, nonetheless be a destabilizing factor at the macroeconomic level? Second, why, if firms are following the production-smoothing model, is production more variable than sales in many industries? We suggest that the so-called (S,s) model may help answer both questions.     

Does Advertising Overcome Brand Loyalty? Evidence from the Breakfast‐Cereals Market

In differentiated product markets where consumer preferences are characterized by brand loyalty, an important role for advertising may be to overcome brand loyalty by encouraging consumers to switch to less familiar brands. Using a scanner panel dataset of breakfast-cereal purchases, I find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that advertising counteracts the tendencies of brand loyalty toward repeat purchasing. Equivalently, advertising reduces switching costs in this market. Furthermore, counterfactual experiments demonstrate that in markets with brand loyalty, advertising is an attractive and effective option—relative to alternative promotional activities, such as price discounts—of stimulating demand for a brand .     

Value-creating functions,satisfaction and loyalty in business markets: a categorical variable approach using a robust methodology under structural equation modeling

This paper studies the effect of the value-creating functions on satisfaction and loyalty in business markets. The conceptual framework that depicts a direct effect of the manufacturer’s value-creating functions on the distributor’s satisfaction and loyalty also considers the existence of quadratic effects between satisfaction and loyalty. We used polychoric correlations (Br J Math Stat Psychol 48:339–358, 1995), together with a robust methodological approach, to analyze categorical variables under structural equation modeling (SEM) in EQS. The empirical results are based on a sample of 181 manufacturing companies located in Spain. By using the aforementioned efficient analytical procedure, the results provide strong empirical support that value creation, understood from a functionalist perspective, is an antecedent of satisfaction and loyalty in business-to-business contexts. Distributor satisfaction is significantly affected by the benefit, volume, and safeguard functions, and the indirect value-creating functions performed by the manufacturer. Distributor loyalty is directly influenced by the indirect value-creating functions, but there is no confirmation that the benefit, volume, and safeguard functions do so. Finally, distributor satisfaction does not exert any significant quadratic effect on distributor loyalty but it has a direct linear effect on that variable.     

The Design and Efficiency of Loyalty Rewards

The goal of this paper is to reexamine the optimal design and efficiency of loyalty rewards (LRs) in markets for final consumption goods. Although the literature to date has emphasized the role of LRs as endogenous switching costs (which distort the efficient allocation of consumers), l analyze instead the ability of alternative designs to foster consumer participation and increase total surplus. First, the efficiency of LRs depends on their specific design. A commitment to the price of repeat purchases can involve substantial efficiency gains by reducing price‐cost margins. However, discount policies imply higher future regular prices and are likely to reduce total surplus. Second, firms may prefer to set up inefficient rewards (discounts), especially in circumstances where a commitment to the price of repeat purchases triggers Coasian dynamics.     

Estimating DEA technical and allocative inefficiency using aggregate cost or revenue data

In this paper, we address the question of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) evaluation of efficiency when aggregate cost or revenue data must be used. We show that the DEA technical inefficiency measure using total revenues as the single output variable or total costs as the single input variable equals the aggregate technical and allocative inefficiency. We employ this result to estimate allocative inefficiency and construct statistical tests of the null hypothesis of no allocative inefficiency analogous to those of the null hypothesis of no scale inefficiency. We illustrate our method using revenue and personnel data for the top U.S. public accounting firms over 1995–1998. Our empirical results indicate the existence of statistically significant allocative inefficiency in the public accounting industry.

Equilibrium pricing and advertising strategies for nondurable experience products in a dynamic duopoly

The quality of many consumer nondurable goods or services is sufficiently complex or obscure that consumers cannot completely verify the true quality in a single usage. For such ‘experience’ products or services, the accumulated consumer consumption experience of a brand is an important determinant of its sales or market share. The market share of a brand is in turn directly influenced by its own and the competitive price and advertising strategies, given the different levels of quality (among other factors). In this paper, we investigate the impact of the aggregate consumption experience on the firm's dynamic pricing and advertising strategies by developing a formal game-theoretic model of a dynamic duopoly. The model of competition does not yield explicit closed-form expressions for the dynamic price and advertising paths of the two firms. Hence, we simulate the equilibrium paths using a discrete-time algorithm. Our simulation results provide interesting insights into the dynamic equilibrium price and advertising paths, under a variety of realistic competitive scenarios.     

Corporate Environmental and Economic Performance of Japanese Manufacturing Firms: Empirical Study for Sustainable Development

This study examines the relationship between environmental performance and economic performance in Japanese manufacturing firms. The environmental performance indicators include CO₂ emissions and the aggregate toxic risk associated with chemical emissions relative to sales. Return on assets (ROA) is used as an indicator of economic performance. We demonstrate that there is a significant inverted U‐shaped relationship between ROA and environmental performance calculated by aggregated toxic risk. We also find that the environmental performance increases ROA through both returns on sales and improved capital turnover. However, we observe a significant positive relationship between financial performance and environmental performance based on CO₂ emissions. These findings may provide evidence for the consequences of firms' environmental behavior and sustainable development. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

What messages does social marketing advertising send? A content analysis of advertisements aiming to minimise harm from alcohol consumption

• While excess alcohol consumption remains one of the most pressing problems for government and society in many countries, the role of social marketing as a tool for shaping a responsible alcohol consumption culture has grown in significance. This research focuses specifically on the communication aspect of social marketing in the form of social marketing advertising. This study seeks to explore what types of approaches and messages are most prevalent in social marketing advertising campaigns that aim to minimise harm from excess alcohol consumption. This study applies the content analysis method to identify the main themes and messages in a sample of social marketing advertisements. A total of 14 social marketing advertising campaigns, including 29 advertisements, was identified. The analytical framework for this research included both positive and negative consequences of alcohol consumption, and two main social marketing advertising approaches identified in the literature: empowering and patronising. This study found that the patronising approach and a strong focus on the negative consequences of alcohol consumption are prevalent in contemporary social marketing campaigns aimed at minimising harmful drinking behaviours. Social marketing too often takes a patronising approach to encouraging behavioural change. More social marketing efforts should be directed towards identifying how to facilitate and support behaviour change through empowerment by providing consumers with alternative behavioural options.

Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.