Measuring destocking performance of the Chinese real estate industry: A DEA-Malmquist approach

This paper aims to measure the evolution of destocking performance of the Chinese Real Estate Industry based on a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)-Malmquist approach, which is seldom used in this industry in existing literature. In 2016, the Chinese government introduced a unified national destocking policy to reduce real estate inventory to save the downturn in the real estate market, but the effect was less than expected and led to soaring house prices in first-tier cities. By analysing the destocking performance over the period from 2005 to 2015, we find the following: (1) It is impossible to use a unified policy to effectively address the national destocking issue because of the difference of DMUs' destocking efficiency, input redundancy and total factor productivity score changes. (2) With the current destocking performance and investment status, the government is still ignoring the existing commercial real estate problems. (3) The redundancy of firm assets and staff indicates that zombie firms may exist and risk future unemployment in the real estate industry. (4) Despite the recently repeated government interventions in this industry, destocking performance remains falling since 2008, and problems in other regions is more severe than in central cities. (5) The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a great impact on China's real estate industry. The destocking performance dropped sharply in 2008, forcing the Chinese government to introduce policies to stimulate the real estate market. Policy recommendations are also put forward based on the findings.     

基于自适应蚂蚁算法的房地产投资组合优化决策

房地产投资组合优化是降低投资风险的有效方法之一。现有的房地产投资组合理论及算法存在缺陷,本文利用熵作为风险衡量指标,并将蚂蚁算法引入房地产开发领域,且针对基本蚂蚁算法存在的计算复杂,易陷入局部最优等缺陷,提出了一种变系数的自适应蚂蚁算法,TSP问题的计算结果表明了该方法较之其他改进算法的优势。以各项目间的均值熵代替TSP中的各城市距离后的房地产投资组合计算实例表明,该方法具有较好的收敛性、稳定性和鲁棒性,是求解组合优化问题的一种较好的方法。     

货币调控政策对房地产作用的时滞分析

影响房地产宏观调控效果的一个重要因素是政策的时滞性,本文通过脉冲效应函数、方差分解方法测算了1999年至2010年房地产宏观调控政策中货币政策对房地产投资与房价的作用时滞。同时,为了得到测算的精确性,还通过时差相关系数的方法对其进行对比分析。研究表明,货币供应量对房地产投资与房价的作用时滞都为4个季度,贷款对房地产投资与房价的作用时滞分别为4个季度、2个季度。     

Measuring portfolio strategic performance using key performance indicators

It is difficult to find indicators for measuring the achievement of objectives during the progress of project portfolios. This article presents an approach for developing key strategic perfor‐mance indicators considering this limitation. The indicators proposed help measure the achievement of a portfolio's strategic objectives taking into account the realization of key benefits. This approach helps identify strategic interdependences between projects that the portfolio is composed of, facilitating the understanding of how the performance of a single project affects the overall performance of a portfolio. The key perfor‐mance indicators can also be used for monitoring the materialization of risks and opportunities influencing the strategic performance of a portfolio.     

大型房地产企业组合投资的模型分析

文章利用现代组合投资理论建立了针对房地产企业的组合投资决策模型,力求为房地产企业的科学投资决策指出一条出路。     

房地产价格的托宾Q效应检验——基于PVAR模型的分析

本文基于面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型,利用中国2002-2008年的省际面板数据,分析了房地产投资与托宾Q值的关系。结果表明,从全国层面看,房地产投资对托宾Q的冲击存在一个很小的正向响应,托宾Q对房地产投资的解释比例很小;从区域层面看,东、中部地区房地产投资的托宾Q效应失效,仅西部地区房地产投资对托宾Q冲击有较小的正向响应。这说明我国当前的房地产市场具有明显的非理性特征,特别是东部、中部地区尤为明显,应加强对囤积土地等套利投机行为的治理及对金融资本投放和使用的监管。     

货币调控政策对房地产作用的时滞分析

影响房地产宏观调控效果的一个重要因素是政策的时滞性,本文通过脉冲效应函数、方差分解方法测算了1999年至2010年房地产宏观调控政策中货币政策对房地产投资与房价的作用时滞。同时,为了得到测算的精确性,还通过时差相关系数的方法对其进行对比分析。研究表明,货币供应量对房地产投资与房价的作用时滞都为4个季度,贷款对房地产投资与房价的作用时滞分别为4个季度、2个季度。     

我国上市公司房地产与公司绩效关系的实证研究

房地产能否增加公司的股票市场价值、提高其收益率和公司的整体赢利能力是公司房地产领域一个很重要的问题。文章采取深圳股票市场非房地产上市公司的股票以及其公司房地产信息,结合三因素模型,对该问题做了实证分析。实证结果表明,公司房地产比率对所有行业整体的平均股票收益率影响并不显著,却对信息技术行业影响显著;同时公司房地产的规模对公司的赢利能力有比较显著的影响。     

房地产开发项目成本控制分析

对于如今我国房地产投资的过热表现,房地产的开发企业在其进行房地产项目的开发过程当中并没有科学的进行项目成本的管理也是其中重要的原因之一。而随着地产行业逐渐的进入调整时期,其竞争也越来越激烈。所以房地产开发企业的利润也将日趋减弱。这就要求房地产开发企业提高其竞争力,而提高房地产开发企业在成本管理方面的水平就是其中之一。     

浅议房地产项目可行性研究的现实意义

房地产项目可行性研究是房地产企业建设前期投资决策阶段的一项重要工作,是保证房地产建设项目以最小的成本换取最佳经济效益的科学方法,房地产项目可行性研究工作对房地产企业有着重要现实意义。     

Three Dimensions of Capital Switching within the Real Estate Sector: A Canadian Case Study

This article analyzes capital switching practices in the real estate development sector. The leading practitioners in Canada, the Canadian‐based real estate companies, are the subject of this inquiry. The tradability and divisibility of real estate properties enhance the growing similarity between real estate properties and other financial assets. It is appropriate to talk about portable real estate portfolios because companies constantly rearrange their property composition. This article emphasizes the ‘three dimensions of capital switching’. These dimensions unpack significant corporate considerations in the deployment and redeployment of capital, namely, mode of operation, property type and location. With respect to office development, the trajectory of the major real estate companies over the last 20 years has accommodated two notable shifts. First, these companies have focused on larger and newer properties, disposing of their smaller and older assets. Second, they have funneled a growing share of their capital assets into the top‐tier cities of the Canadian urban system, reducing investment in other metropolitan areas and disinvesting in the small‐to‐medium sized cities.     

Canada's Housing Bubble Story: Mortgage Securitization,the State,and the Global Financial Crisis

Canada's experience during and after the financial crisis appears to distinguish it from its international peers. Canadian real estate sales and values experienced record increases since the global financial crisis emerged in 2008, rather than declines, and Canada did not witness any bank failures. The dominant trope concerning Canada's financial and housing markets is that they are sound, prudent, appropriately regulated and ‘boring but effective’. It is widely assumed that Canadian banks did not need, nor receive, a ‘bailout’, that mortgage lending standards remained high, and that the securitization of mortgages was not widespread. The truth, however, does not accord with this mainstream view. In fact, the Canadian financial and housing markets reveal marked similarities with their international peers. Canada's banks needed, and received, a substantial ‘bailout’, while federal policies before and after the financial crisis resulted in the massive growth of mortgage securitization and record household indebtedness. This article documents the growth of Canada's housing bubble, the history of mortgage securitization, and of government policies implemented before and after the crisis. Instead of making the Canadian financial and housing sectors more resilient and sustainable, the outcomes of state responses are best understood as regressively redistributive.     

Firm performance and ownership structure: Dynamic network data envelopment analysis approach

This paper applies dynamic network slacks-based data envelopment analysis to measure financial performance based on the interrelationship among investment, financing, and dividend decisions. The empirical results show that financial performance is determined simultaneously by the efficiency of decisions, and sample firms have good performance in investment stage, but need to improve their financing and dividend policies. The proposal financial performance measure explains the multicriteria of decision-making rather than the single financial ratios. Besides, the research contributes a novel on the significant relationship between firm's ownership structure in the form of managers, government and foreign shareholders, and the firm's financial performance.     

基于Logistic模型的我国房地产开发投资压力测试研究

对我国房地产开发投资风险进行压力测试分析,考虑房地产开发投资的地域性差异,选取三个代表地区——上海、辽宁和贵州,首先分析影响房地产投资的风险因素,然后运用Logistic回归模型建立该地区的房地产投资风险评价模型,确定重要影响因素,设定"异常"情景,最后测试房地产业的抗压能力。研究发现:影响三个地区房地产投资的因素不同,且重要性不一致。房地产销售价格变动与上海房地产投资风险关系最为密切,居民消费价格指数波动对辽宁房地产投资影响最大,而房地产投资的波动直接影响贵州房地产业的健康运行。对这三个重要指标设定极端情景,三个地区的房地产投资风险出现了不同程度的提高,由此得出,在投资这三个地区或与其相似类型的地区时,要充分考虑实际的宏观经济情况,特别是显著指标的变动情况,使投资更加的合理和安全。     

Testing out-of-sample portfolio performance

This paper studies the quality of portfolio performance tests based on out-of-sample returns. By disentangling the components of the out-of-sample performance, we show that the observed differences are driven largely by the differences in estimation risk. Our Monte Carlo study reveals that the puzzling empirical findings of inferior performances of theoretically superior strategies result mainly from the low power of these tests. Thus, our results provide an explanation as to why the null hypothesis of equal performance of the simple equally-weighted portfolio compared to many theoretically-superior alternative strategies cannot be rejected in many out-of-sample horse races. Our findings turn out to be robust with respect to different designs and the implementation strategies of the tests.For the applied researcher, we provide some guidance as to how to cope with the problem of low power. In particular, we make use of a novel pretest-based portfolio strategy to show how the information regarding performance tests can be used optimally.     

Is there a diversification “cost” of Shari’ah compliance? Empirical evidence from Malaysian equities

Islamic equity portfolios work with a smaller investment universe given the filtering of non-Shari’ah compliant stocks. It has been theoretically argued that this culminates in suboptimal portfolio diversification, which in turn adversely affects risk-adjusted returns. We offer empirical evidence that such a conceived portfolio diversification “penalty” is far from a foregone conclusion, at least empirically. Our results tend to indicate that Islamic portfolios are not invariably handicapped in terms of portfolio diversification. We also explored dimensions that may account for differences in the relative investment performance between Islamic and conventional portfolios, such as portfolio constraints, short selling and market conditions. We believe this paper is among the first to apply substantial empirical analysis specifically with respect to the portfolio diversification perspective on Islamic equity investments.     

The Real Estate Frontier

Africa's major cities are experiencing dramatic transformation as a result of growing real estate investment. This article explores whether existing theories can explain the dynamics of urban redevelopment in an African context, and how African cases can inform new theorizations of real estate driven urban transformation. Examining the utility of theories of gentrification and speculative urbanism for understanding urban redevelopment in Accra, Ghana, it argues that urban redevelopment in this city has been shaped by its particular (post)colonial history of state land acquisition and urban planning. Rather than simply identifying empirical variation on established theories, however, the article draws on recent research on commodity frontiers to propose an original theorization of urban redevelopment in Accra in terms of the production of a ‘real estate frontier’. This real estate frontier is characterized by the incremental and contested commodification of state land to enable the growth of the real estate sector in the city. The article concludes by calling for a comparative research agenda to better understand real estate frontiers globally.     

房地产价格的托宾Q效应检验——基于PVAR模型的分析

本文基于面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,利用中国2002-2008年的省际面板数据,分析了房地产投资与托宾Q值的关系。结果表明,从全国层面看,房地产投资对托宾Q的冲击存在一个很小的正向响应,托宾Q对房地产投资的解释比例很小;从区域层面看,东、中部地区房地产投资的托宾Q效应失效,仅西部地区房地产投资对托宾Q冲击有较小的正向响应。这说明我国当前的房地产市场具有明显的非理性特征,特别是东部、中部地区尤为明显,应加强对囤积土地等套利投机行为的治理及对金融资本投放和使用的监管。     

The more the merrier? Network portfolio size and innovation performance in Nigerian firms

A positive relationship between firms' networking activities and innovativeness has been consistently established in the literature on innovation. However, studies considering different innovation types, and on developing countries are scarce. This paper addresses questions concerning the relationship between networking strategies and innovativeness of firms, using innovation survey data on Nigerian firms. Quantile regression is applied to trace the link between portfolio size and innovation at different levels of innovative success. The results show a positive relationship between a firm's innovation performance and the size of its networking portfolio. This relationship varies across different innovation types and with increasing innovation performance. The findings suggest that the widely accepted portfolio approach to external search for knowledge is not necessarily always the best—its utility depends on the firm's current level of innovative success. This poses a challenge for open innovation.     

Firm-diversification effects on performance as measured by tobin's q

The performance effects of firm diversification remain unclear despite a large body of prior research that has yielded mixed results due to differing performance measures, diversification measures, samples and time periods. The objective of this research is to offer further information by using Tobin's q to capture performance effects and Rumelt's related ratio as the diversification measure. The empirical results reveal no significant findings to relate diversification and performance. Given that the sample is composed of very large firms, the implication is that, at least for such large firms whose stock is likely held in well-diversified portfolios, firm-diversification strategies are unlikely to yield superior performance.