牧区经济可持续发展研究

牧区在我国经济社会发展大局中具有重要的战略地位。2011年国务院颁布《关于促进牧区又好又快发展的若干意见》,对牧区工作做出重要决策和部署,并加大了支持力度。草原畜牧业是牧区经济发展的基础产业,是牧民收入的主要来源,是全国畜牧业的重要组成部分。改革开放特别是实施西部大开发战略以来,牧区生态建设大规模展开,草原畜牧业发展方式逐步转变,牧民生活水平显著提高,牧区发展已经站在新的历史起点上。同时必须清醒地看到,草原生态总体恶化趋势尚未根本遏制,草原畜牧业粗放型增长方式难以为继,生态环境保护与牧区经济发展不协调,牧民生活水平的提高普遍滞后等问题。因此,加强生态环境保护的同时建立牧区经济可持续发展机制是实现我国农牧业现代化和新农村牧区建设具有重要意义。本文通过揭示牧区经济滞后根源和导致牧民生活水平的提高普遍滞后因素的基础上,着重分析了牧区经济可持续发展机制,并提出了保障牧区经济可持续发展机制的政策建议。     

草原牧区生态移民生产生活可持续发展问题研究——以内蒙古乌拉特中旗收缩转移战略为例

为了恢复草原植被而转移出来的牧民能否顺利生产、生活一直是学术界讨论的话题。本文在综合一些学者观点的基础上,探讨草原牧区生态移民的生产生活问题,并以内蒙古乌拉特中旗收缩转移战略为例分析了可持续发展问题,提出了实施草原牧区生态移民政策值得注意的三个问题。     

增收与生态保护：双重保障型草地市场化流转机制探析

草地流转在协调草原生态保护和牧民生计提升方面发挥出重要作用,是深化草地制度改革、落实乡村振兴战略的纽带。然而不断出现的草地流转风险,对牧民生计和草地生态均构成潜在威胁,因此,健全草地流转市场体系、完善草场资源管理对降低风险损失具有重要意义。文章采用归纳演绎法,通过借鉴、比较农地流转经验,提出从生态保护和牧民生计两个方面推动草地流转市场建设,即一方面要降低草地流转过程中可能面临的风险,如失地失业、经营规模不稳定,保障牧民生计发展;另一方面要明确流转主体间草地生态保护责任,保障流转草地生态环境不退化。对此,结合草原畜牧业经营特征,提出双重保障型草地市场流转的改革思路,构建牧民生存发展和草地生态保护的双重保障体系,促进牧区经济发展、提高牧民收入、落实牧区乡村振兴战略。     

牧户对草原生态保护政策的评价与期望——基于可持续发展背景下的考察

近年来,国家日益重视草原生态环境与草原畜牧业的可持续发展,如何完善草原生态保护政策并且实现牧民持续增收和牧区经济可持续发展,已经成为社会各界关注的热点。但是由于现行政策执行时间较短,对政策实施效果缺乏全面深入地研究。该文通过对内蒙古等6省区牧户调研数据,就不同区域内牧户对现行的草原生态保护及相关补贴政策的认知情况、评价情况以及政策实施后牧户的养殖困难和政策期望进行分析,并提出了相关对策建议。     

新疆阿勒泰市草地退化的原因及对策分析

目前,新疆阿勒泰市的草地出现了大面积的退化现象。资料显示,草原牧区的牧民人均纯收入80%以上来源于畜牧业生产,草地退化严重影响了牧民收入的增加与生活水平的提高,严重阻碍了社会主义新牧区的建设。因此,研究草地退化的影响因素,分析其影响程度的强弱,提出相应的对策建议,对于防治草地退化与加强草原保护建设具有现实可行的意义。     

内蒙古草原生态补偿意愿的实证研究

草原生态补偿意愿是确定草原生态补偿标准的重要参考,理论上补偿意愿包括补偿主体的支付意愿和补偿对象的受偿意愿。利用条件价值评估法(CVM)研究补偿主体的支付意愿和补偿对象的受偿意愿。通过采用SPSS软件中的皮尔逊相关分析法得出如下结论:内蒙古地区居民对草原生态补偿的支付意愿是23.10元/hm2.年;内蒙古草原牧区牧民的受偿意愿是1 944.75/hm2.年。影响支付意愿的因素主要是被访者的受教育程度(即学历水平)、对草原生态环境的认知程度和家庭人口;影响受偿意愿的因素主要是牲畜饲养方式和牧民居住地距离旗政府所在地的距离。     

西北牧区草地生态补偿绩效评价的逻辑框架研究

西北牧区是我国重要的生态安全屏障和畜牧业生产基地,草地生态补偿的实施对有效遏制和恢复西北牧区草地退化的趋势,促进牧区经济发展和提高牧民生活水平具有重要作用。建立科学的生态补偿绩效评价逻辑框架是构建其评价指标体系和保障生态补偿政策顺利实施及补偿资金合理有效利用的关键环节。因此,依据西北牧区的自然、经济和社会文化特征,提出了从县域尺度和牧户尺度评价草地生态补偿绩效的思路,构建了多维角度的草地生态补偿绩效评价的逻辑框架,从生态功能、生产功能和生活功能协调发展角度综合评价牧区草地生态补偿的绩效。     

肃南县山地草原畜牧业的发展模式

本文以祁连山区的肃南县为实验基础,通过对山地草原牧区生态保护和经济发展之间现存问题的分析,提出了以草原管理,牲畜繁育和产业发展为主要内容的山地草原畜牧业的生态经济发展模式。它将山地草原的生态保护与农户的经济增长兼容起来,从而成为山地草原畜牧业的一个可持续发展模式。     

牧民生态建设投资的实证分析

本文通过对内蒙古草原牧区390户牧民数据的统计分析,对牧区牧民的生产、生活特征有了比较充分的认识.利用相关数据,通过建立计量经济模型,分析了影响牧民生态建设投资的重要因素,从而得出搞好草原生态建设,必须生态建设与牧民增收一起抓,并提出了相应的政策建议.     

草原生态补偿与可持续发展研究——以呼伦贝尔草原的实践为例

草原生态补偿是促进农牧民增收和草原地区经济发展的重要措施,该机制的建立,从制度上可以保证农牧民的生计,从行为上可以引导农牧民调整草原畜牧业生产方式,实现草原生态环境协调可持续发展。草原生态补偿应落实好草原承包制度,要充分考虑到合理载畜量,在补偿方面以草畜平衡、管护、燃料替代等方面为重点,逐步建立和完善草原生态补偿制度体系。草原生态补偿体系在完善过程中要重点抓好落实草原保护制度,加强后期保护工作力度;积极推行草畜平衡制度,严格控制载畜量,限制超载放牧,规范草地利用制度,保护草原天然植被;加大草原地区投资力度,保障草原地区生态经济可持续发展;建立健全草原监理机构,依法行政保护草原资源;强化牧民的草原环保意识及其文化教育和技能培训。     

High School Graduation in Australia: Do Schools Matter?

This study examines the determinants of high school graduation in Australia. It uses two main approaches to estimation. The first of these is a conventional probit model based on a range of family background and demographic variables. This approach is then extended through consideration of a random parameters probit model. The results show that schools matter to the chances of completing high school in Australia. However, the school effects seem to have more to do with the selection of more able students with superior socioeconomic backgrounds than with the independent creation of favourable school or classroom climates.     

农村独生子女的学校教育优势—基于江苏、四川两省的调查数据

利用江苏、四川两省1206名农村子女的抽样问卷调查资料,以农村非独生子女为比较对象,描述农村独生子女的学校教育特征,并从微观层面提出解释。农村独生子女的学校教育优势明显:文化水平更高、上重点学校的可能性更大、享有更多的家庭教育投入;独生子女身份、性别等个人因素,尤其是父母的文化水平、家庭的经济条件等家庭因素,能为农村独生子女的学校教育优势提供一定的解释。     

Public Housing,School Segregation,and Children’s Education: Evidence from Hong Kong

Evidence in the literature shows that public-housing residents move less frequently than others. This tendency may restrict school choice for children from public-housing families and lead to school segregation and lower educational outcomes for those children. Our empirical findings from Hong Kong show three strands of evidence that support this hypothesis. (1) Children from public-housing families are more likely to drop out of school after compulsory education. The result is robust after controlling for family background and a series of parental characteristics. (2) Public-housing families with school-age children are less likely to move than their private-housing counterparts. (3) Children from public-housing families are more likely to study in local community schools, which are located on the outskirts of Hong Kong and are of lower education quality. These findings have important policy implications for the public-housing programs such as those which have been implemented in Mainland China since 2011.     

Detracking Swedish compulsory schools: any losers, any winners?

In this article, I use within-school variation to estimate the effect of tracking. I exploit the fact not only that different tracking policies were practiced simultaneously in Swedish compulsory schools but also that tracking policies changed overtime within schools. I estimate not only if being in a tracked math environment had any effect on the probability of graduating from high school but also if tracking status had any impact on the math grade in high school. The results show that there are no significant average effects of tracking. However, there are effects in the lower part of the grade distribution. Students with a low-educated family background are more likely to fail math at high school if they have attended a compulsory school that practiced tracking compared to similar students in a non-tracked environment.     

男性青少年犯大五人格特征分析

采用大五人格问卷（BFI）和自编调查问卷对217名狱中男性青少年犯和263名在校中学生进行问卷调查。研究男性青少年犯大五人格特征及其影响因素,为有效预防青少年犯罪提供理论依据。调查发现青少年犯与正常同龄男生在宜人性、责任心、神经质和开放性等四个维度上有显著差异;宜人性与开放性在区分青少年犯与正常同龄男生有一定的鉴别力：家庭关系、父母是否离异、农村或城市户口、有无恋爱经历、上网频率、小时候父母是否在家、入监前生活状态等因素影响青少年宜人性人格因子的形成;家庭关系、上网频率等因素影响青少年开放性人格因子形成。本研究表明宜人性与开放性对青少年犯罪有一定预测力;家庭诸多因素对青少年犯罪人格特征有影响作用。     

Does the early bird catch the worm? The effect of school starting age on educational attainment and labor market outcomes: Evidence from Chinese urban twins data

This paper estimates the effects of school starting age (SSA) on educational attainment and labor market outcomes by using unique urban adult twins data from China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates indicate that late enrollment in primary school lowers years of education, earnings, wage rate, and probability of employment. However, when we use the within-monozygotic (MZ)-twin fixed effects method to exclude unobservable endowments and family factors, the effects of SSA on years of education become less negative. For earnings, wage rate, and the probability of employment, the within-twin fixed effects estimates become insignificant. The results indicate that a one-year delay in primary school starting age lowers schooling by 0.51 years but does not affect earnings, wage rate, or probability of employment. The difference between OLS and within-MZ-twin fixed effects estimates indicates that the negative return to SSA is due to unobservable family variables and omitted individual-specific endowments. We further find that the earlier primary school starters fail to obtain a level of education with high return. Specifically, early birds do not have a high probability of getting a vocational school degree or above.     

New Evidence on the Effects of the Shortened School Duration in the German States: An Evaluation of Post‐secondary Education Decisions

Most German states have recently reduced the duration of university preparatory schooling from 13 to 12 years without changing the graduation requirements. We use nationwide data on high school graduates and the different timing of reform introduction in the federal states to identify the effects on post‐secondary education decisions and to evaluate potential effect mechanisms. The results show that university enrolment of female students decreased in the first year after graduation in all analyzed states, whereas participation in voluntary service or staying abroad increased. Furthermore, students from non‐academic families are more affected than students from an academic family background.     

"二孩政策"与学区房溢价——基于人口政策变化的政策评价分析

我国人口生育政策的调整是政府在我国经济进入中高速发展阶段之后做出的重大决策,对社会经济各个方面会产生重要影响.文章着眼于政策调整、家庭规划和政府公共产品需求,以上海市住房数据为基础,分析了我国"二孩政策"对现阶段学区房价格的影响.文章以特征回归模型为基础,讨论了人口政策变化对学区房价格的影响.研究发现,在人口新政出台后,与临近的普通住房相比,学区房的相对溢价程度更高.文章进一步采用固定边界法,发现优质学区房的溢价涨幅(约为8.6%-11.8%)高于普通学区房(约为2.49%-3.97%),充分说明在人口政策调整后,我国部分家庭对优质教育更加渴望.文章采用匹配回归进行了稳健性检验,仍支持上述研究结论.     

大学生消费现状调查分析与建议

大学生作为社会上一个比较特殊的消费群体,具有比较特殊的消费心理。从消费水平、消费结构、消费行为及消费心理三个方面来分析大学生消费的现状,可以得到一个较清楚的认识。针对此现状,从家庭、社会、学校和大学生自身对大学生科学消费进行引导很有必要。     

退耕还林工程的环境改善功能对种植业的影响分析

利用因果分析法和面板数据法分析了我国林草地的增减变动对种植业的影响.结果表明,在退耕还林工程实施以前,林草地的减少所引致的环境退化对种植业造成了负面影响;工程实施后,中部、东部地区林草地的增加促进了种植业单产的提高,而西部地区尚未建立起这种关系;通过退耕还林工程来改善农业生态环境,对种植业具有经济功效.