How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations

This paper examines public debt management during episodes of fiscal stabilization when long–term interest rates are generally higher than governments' expectations of future rates. We find that governments increase the share of fixed–rate long–term debt denominated in the domestic currency, the higher is the conditional volatility of short–term interest rates, the lower are long–term interest rates, and the stronger is the fall in long–term rates that follows the announcement of the stabilization program. This evidence suggests that governments tend to prefer long to short maturity debt because they are concerned about refinancing risk. However, when long–term rates are high relative to their expectations, they issue short maturity debt to minimize borrowing costs.
JEL classification : E 63; H 63     

The Distributional Impact of Public Goods Provision: A Veil of Ignorance Approach

The "veil of ignorance" approach is used to consider the redistribution implied by different tax-benefit systems. Assuming a (hypothetical) ex-ante situation in which individuals lack any knowledge about their future income, redistribution from rich to poor can be seen as a form of insurance. Taking redistribution and insurance as synonymous, the analysis derives cases of redistributionally neutral systems of taxation and public good provision.
JEL classification : H 23; D 30;, H 41     

Fiscal deficits,monetary reform and inflation stabilization in romania

Developing countries have witnessed an increase in foreign bank participation during the last decade. Using bank level data for the period 1991–2001, we examine the influence of foreign banks on the financing of small firms in Tanzania. Despite dominating the banking sector, results suggest that the financing of small firms by foreign banks is insignificant compared to domestic banks. Clearly, there is a need for a new approach to policy that will encourage significant foreign bank lending to small firms.     

城市化与政府财政规模的关系——理论分析与实证研究

建立CES效用函数,就城市化对政府财政支出规模的影响进行理论分析,进而利用2004—2012年全国30个省级区域的面板数据进行实证分析。理论分析和实证分析的结果都表明:城市化确实扩大了政府的财政支出规模。最后根据研究结论提出有效安排公共财政支出的建议。     

交易成本、政府级次与财政体制改革

由于受交易成本的制约,管辖范围小、涉及人数少的"小政府"作为降低公共产品供给交易成本的制度安排首先得以形成.而后,为降低受益范围超出小政府辖区的公共产品供给的交易成本,更高层次的政府得以出现.政府级次化降低了公共产品供给的横向交易成本却增加了纵向交易成本,当横向交易成本的减少额与纵向交易成本的增加额在边际上相等时,政府级次达到均衡.由此看来,基层政府具有"逻辑先在性",采用"自上而下"分权的思路来构建财政体制是值得商榷的.财政体制的构建从逻辑上讲应该是"自下而上"授权而不是"自上而下"分权.     

财政风险:一个分析框架

政府既是一个经济主体 ,也是一个公共主体 ,本文从公共主体身份出发 ,构建了一个财政风险的理论分析框架 ,区别于政府以经济主体身份承担的财政风险。财政风险是私人风险转化为公共风险时的产物。财政风险的大小与制度变迁的速度有关。评估财政风险应从两个方面入手 :一是政府拥有的公共资源 ,二是政府应承担的公共支出责任和义务 ,就债务论债务是没有意义的。我国的财政风险处于发散的状态 ,呈不断扩大的趋势 ,原因在于制度缺陷导致的“风险大锅饭” ,破坏了收益与风险对称的基本规则 ,从而形成了一种风险累积和集中的机制。今后改革的重心在于建立不同层面的风险约束机制。     

财政政策的供给效应与经济发展

本文分析了发展中国家公共投资对私人资本积累的动态响应。针对公共资本的拥挤性特征 ,同时考虑财政投资可能引起的风险。在不考虑公共投资风险的分权经济中 ,由于公共资本和私人资本都处于短缺状态 ,企业争夺拥挤性公共资本而扩张私人资本的投资行为虽然使经济超常增长 ,但是存在过度投资和过度拥挤。在集中优化模型中 ,如果考虑到公共投资的风险 ,政府通过税收方式弥补公共投资风险 ,同时将企业投资产生的拥挤效应内部化 ,就能消除企业的过度投资和过度拥挤现象 ,使经济保持合理持续的增长。对中国这样的发展中国家 ,需要重视财政的供给效应 ,在经济起飞初期保证一定数量的政府资本性支出是必要的 ,但随着经济的不断发展和政府资本性支出累积的风险增加 ,财政转型十分必要。     

积极运用财政政策,促进经济健康发展

如何看待财政政策的作用, 怎样正确处理发债与经济增长之间的关系, 本文在专家调整的基础上进行了综述性分析, 提出在目前应积极运用财政政策, 加强财政政策, 加强财政、贷币政策的协调, 促进经济增长。     

Distributional Effects of a Wealth Tax under Lifetime‐Dynastic Income Concepts*

Annual wealth tax is back on the policy agenda, but discussion of its effect is not well informed. When standard methodology is used and wealth‐tax burdens are measured against annual individual income, it is found that a large share of the tax burden falls on people with low incomes. In this study, we use rich Norwegian administrative data to discuss the distributional effects of wealth tax under several different income concepts, ultimately measuring income over the lifetime of family dynasties. When measured against lifetime income and lifetime income in dynasties, wealth tax is mostly borne by high‐income taxpayers and is seen as clearly redistributive.     

Distributional consequences of asset price inflation in the Euro Area

We study the distributional consequences of housing price, bond price and equity price increases for Euro Area households using data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). The capital gains from bond price and equity price increases turn out to be concentrated among relatively few households, while the median household strongly benefits from housing price increases. The capital gains from bond price increases (relative to household net wealth) do not correlate with household net wealth (or income). Bond price increases thus leave net wealth inequality largely unchanged. In contrast, equity price increases largely benefit the top end of the net wealth (and income) distribution, thus amplify net wealth inequality. Housing price increases display a hump shaped pattern over the net wealth distribution, with the poorest and richest households benefitting least, but there exists considerable heterogeneity across Euro Area countries. The ECB's OMT announcements over the summer of 2012 had quantitatively similar distributional implications as an unexpected loosening of the policy rate by about 175 basis points.     

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidation and Welfare Composition of Spending on Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections between 1978 and 2006

This study attempts to make a contribution to the field of spending aspects of fiscal policy and their impacts on electoral outcome. Due to varying degrees of financial responsibilities and commitments to provide public goods and services, US state governments serve as a perfectly natural laboratory to test the electoral significance of fiscal policies. We adopt a probit model, with several specifications, to determine significant impacts of fiscal consolidation and increases in welfare spending on US gubernatorial elections from 1978 to 2006. The analyses show that voters are more concerned about the increase in debt than current budget deficits. An increase in welfare spending is negatively associated with reelection. Moreover, the impact of taxation on gubernatorial elections turns out to be insignificant. In particular, findings suggest that the political business cycle model does not hold true in US gubernatorial elections. Expansionary fiscal policy right before the election may not have crucial impacts on the chances of an incumbent winning the election.     

财政分权、公共品供给与城乡收入差距

基于1994年～2004年间省级面板数据的估计结果显示,农村公共品供给增加对降低城乡收入差距有显著的作用.而地区间预算外收入和宏观税负的提高都是拉大城乡收入差距的因素.财政分权程度、政府财政支出的结构也对城乡收入差距有显著的影响.另外,中国持续扩大的城乡收入差距与农村发展落后有关,城市化未能带来城乡收入差距的缩小.     

Optimal Public Debts, Sustainable Deficits, and Budgetary Consolidation

It is hardly surprising that government budgets have always been widely debated inboth the political and academic arenas as public finances in general, and the budgetin particular, reflect the political and ideological colour of the government whichruns the state. No less inevitable are academic debates on budgetary issues giventhat economics is a multi-paradigmatic science. This background makes all the moremysterious the current complete consensus on the need for budgetary consolidationand the overwhelming acceptance of the `balanced budget' principle in politics as wellas in academic economics. In the paper, this position is questioned by producing a simple model of optimal public debt, sustainable deficits and optimal budgetary consolidation. Different possible trajectories of fiscal restriction and expansion – based on a Post-Keynesian and Rational Expectations paradigm alternatively – are then being empirically tested by comparing the German and British historical accounts of public finances over the past three decades.     

Public Preferences for Government Spending Priorities: Survey Evidence from Germany

Employing data from a representative survey conducted in Germany, this paper examines public preferences for the size and composition of government expenditure. We focus on public attitudes towards taxes, public debt incurrence and public spending in six different policy areas. Our findings suggest, first, that individual preferences for the use of additional tax money can be categorised as either capital‐oriented expenditure or public debt reduction. Second, we find that fiscal preferences differ along various dimensions. Specifically, personal economic well‐being, economic literacy, confidence in politicians, political ideology and time preference are significantly related to individual attitudes towards public spending, taxes and debt. The magnitude of the effects is particularly large for time preference, economic knowledge and party preference. Third, public preferences for public spending priorities are only marginally affected when considering a public budget constraint.     

Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future

The macroeconometric simulation model AMOD1 and the optimization algorithm OPTCON are used to evaluate fiscal policies for Austria since the late seventies. In particular, the question of optimal (debt stabilizing) fiscal policies for the past and for the future is analyzed within the framework of a medium-scaled simulation model. The first set of optimization experiments aims to assess optimal fiscal policies for debt stabilization for the historical period 1978–2000 while trying to maintain reasonable growth rates of approximately 2 percent of real GDP. Optimal values of the instruments and the targets are compared to empirical data for Austria. A second set of simulations calculates optimal paths for the fiscal instruments for the period 2001-2010, particularly with respect to the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is mandatory for member states of the Euro zone.     

公共债务对实体经济的传导机制及政策启示

在我国经济发展的“新常态”下,公共债务将如何作用于实体经济的问题值得关注与思考。文章简要描述了国内外公共债务的实践历程及现状,并在对早期西方公共债务理论以及近期相关文献梳理的基础上,关于公共债务对实体经济的传导机制进行系统性分析。研究表明,公共债务分别通过三个层面实现对实体经济的传导：基于宏观层面,通过影响生产要素投入,实现公共债务对实体经济产出的传导;基于微观层面,通过刺激消费与投资,实现公共债务对实体经济总需求的传导;基于金融层面,通过调整流动性和利率,实现公共债务对实体经济运行的传导。因此,应当合理调控公共债务规模,提高公共债务的投资效率,有效地发挥公共债务对实体经济长期发展的推动作用。     

农村金融与公共物品和服务:什么对小农户最重要

在发展中国家,对小农户最重要的是有一个稳定和有利的经济环境,这使他们能够将农业固有的不确定性转化为可以衡量的风险,减少和分散这些风险,降低经济活动的交易成本,进而通过提高获利能力来扩大其经营。政府持续地投资并提供公共物品及服务,对创造这样一种环境是至关重要的。因此,农村金融的重要性是显而易见的,因为它帮助小农户战胜贫苦的有效性很大程度上取决于小农户的经营是否是在这样的环境下进行。在中国农业经济和非农业经济快速转型的过程中,小农户大大地受益于政府持续地投资并提供公共物品及服务,以及增进的刺激。然而,尽管有这些重大成就,中国仍然存在着数百万的农村贫困人口,特别是在中西部地区。因此,中国政府面临的挑战是,要以一种穷人易于获得的方式,以及使他们更好地融入获利性的供应链,把他们与不断扩大的国内外市场联系在一起,持续投资并提供公共物品及服务。     

全球公共物品理论研究

全球公共物品理论为全球化问题的解决提供了新思路。然而,中国的学术界对于全球公共物品理论的理解,还存在莫衷一是的现象,并倾向于把全球公共物品理论与国际公共物品理论混为一谈。这不仅制约了全球公共物品理论运用的效果,也影响了该理论的发展。为此,本文通过对全球公共物品理论和国际公共物品理论的辨析,提出了应该从三个维度来理解和认识全球公共物品理论的观点,进而对全球公共物品理论对传统公共物品理论的拓展问题进行了研究,旨在为全球化问题的解决提供正确的理论基础。     

Retailing public goods: The economics of corporate social responsibility

This paper explores the feasibility and desirability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). We identify CSR with creation of public goods or curtailment of public bads. Using a model with profit-maximizing firms, the paper shows that there is a direct parallel between CSR and traditional models of private provision of public goods. Indeed, firms that use CSR will produce public goods at exactly the same level as predicted by the standard voluntary contribution equilibrium for public goods. We compare CSR with government provision and charitable provision, discussing when CSR by private for-profit firms could have a comparative advantage in dealing with public goods provision.     

Ricardian equivalence and the public and private saving nexus in India

This study tests the Ricardian equivalence theorem (RET) and examines the responsiveness of private saving to public saving in India. Most estimators do not provide support for the empirical validity of RET and long-run cointegration between public and private saving. The increases in household saving (HHS) seem to have been engendered by the provision of saving incentives, institution of saving schemes, self-driven motivation to save, and the precautionary accumulations induced by uncovered uncertainties in incomes, rather than by Ricardian behaviour of households. The self-imposed aversion to debt and debt bequest, borrowing and liquidity constraints, and the intertemporal smoothing of consumption have been the added catalysts that contributed to the increases in HHS. The households with binding borrowing constraints, inadequate or no insurance and uncovered uncertainties in incomes seem to have been saving more to pay for higher inflation-tax. The fiscal consolidation and generation of public saving are essential to reduce the tax burden (both explicit through fiscal taxes and implicit through inflation-tax), minimize the likelihoods of economic and financial crises, and maintain the internal and external value of domestic currency.